Group 1 - The Trump administration is exploring ways to increase its influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, potentially extending its power beyond personnel appointments in Washington [1][2] - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could allow him to gain a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board if upheld in court [1][2] - The selection and reappointment process for regional Fed presidents is overseen by regional boards and the Board of Governors, and if the government can review these processes, it would mark a significant step in influencing monetary policy [1][2] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the White House is scrutinizing every aspect to find ways to change the Federal Reserve, with a focus on the reappointment voting of regional Fed presidents [2] - The goal of the Trump administration is not to make the Federal Reserve more dovish but to closely examine the selection and review process for regional Fed presidents, as these positions do not require Senate confirmation [2][3] - Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard warned that any political moves to dismiss multiple regional Fed presidents could exacerbate inflation and raise long-term interest rates [2][3] Group 3 - Brainard stated that attempts to alter the overall voting results of the FOMC represent an unprecedented challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve [3] - Since returning to the White House, Trump has consistently called for interest rate cuts, but under Jerome Powell's leadership, the Fed has maintained the benchmark rate due to concerns over inflation from Trump's tariff policies [3][4] - Trump's economic team believes the Fed failed to effectively regulate the economy before the 2008 financial crisis but gained more power afterward, criticizing its slow response to inflation in 2021-22 and the subsequent Silicon Valley Bank collapse [4] Group 4 - Trump indicated that his nominated candidates would soon hold a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, supporting his desire for significant interest rate cuts [5] - He emphasized that achieving a majority vote would improve housing issues, stating that high loan rates are the primary problem that needs addressing [5]

特朗普周一晚间在"真实社交"（Truth Social）宣布立即解雇库克，试图动摇央行公信力。然而，其法律 权限受到质疑。 纽约梅隆银行（BNY）董事总经理兼市场策略与洞察主管罗伯特·萨维奇（Robert Savage）表示，解雇 库克是"对美国总统权力的历史性考验"。他在一份电子邮件中称，对美联储独立性的信任丧失将对美国 债券和美元构成长期风险，这限制了投资者的避险选择。 美国总统特朗普采取行动欲解雇美联储理事会的一名成员，此举可能削弱人们对美元和美国国债的信 心，同时提升黄金及其他被视为避险资产的吸引力。 海洋公园资产管理公司（Ocean Park Asset Management）的詹姆斯•圣•奥宾（James St. Aubin）说，"美 联储的独立性是其招牌，解雇理事的举动是对美联储不受政治动机干扰制定货币政策能力的直接攻击。 当你开始削弱对全球储备货币货币政策的信心时，你就是在玩火。如果市场认为美联储在根据直接政治 影响制定政策，美国资产将失去吸引力。" 他指出，美联储"本质上是政治机构，不仅因为理事会由总统任命并经参议院确认，而且我们的整个货 币体系如今都具有政治性质。我们不再拥有以黄金为支撑的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The situation represents a significant challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve by Trump, with the outcome hinging on a court ruling that could set a precedent for presidential intervention in monetary policy [2][3] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve spokesperson emphasized that the terms of board members are fixed by the Federal Reserve Act, and the president can only dismiss them for "just cause" [1] - Lisa Cook, the dismissed board member, has indicated through her lawyer that she will seek judicial review, and the Federal Reserve has committed to comply with any court ruling [1] - Trump has stated he will also abide by the court's decision, indicating a willingness to follow legal processes [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's insistence on resolving the matter through legal channels highlights its commitment to maintaining institutional independence [3] - The final outcome will depend on the court's decision; if Trump prevails, it may set a new precedent for presidential influence over monetary policy [3] - If Cook remains in her position, it would reinforce the independence of the Federal Reserve, but the situation currently adds uncertainty to U.S. monetary policy, potentially affecting market expectations and financial stability [3]

8月26日，据媒体报道，参议院银行委员会预计下周举行Miran的提名听证会。知情人士透露，这场听 证会原本在库克被解雇前就已筹备，但现在被赋予了新的政治意义。 特朗普周一解雇美联储理事库克的举动，使的确认程序变得更加政治化，为民主党议员质疑共和党维护 央行独立性的承诺提供了新机会。一位共和党国会助理表示："现在这就像是一场政治立场较量，一场 对特朗普的公投。" 民主党预计将在Miran确认过程中重点关注美联储独立性问题。布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Aaron Klein指 出："美联储的独立性是由国会创造的。现在是时候看看国会是否会支持美联储的独立性了。" Miran提名听证会面临政治考验 据见闻此前文章，8月初，特朗普通过社交媒体宣布，已选择经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran担任美 联储理事，需要得到美国参议院的批准。这项提名仅为填补美联储理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）即将 于明年1月到期的任期。 如果获得确认，他将担任该职位直至Kugler任期在2026年1月31日到期。据报道，特朗普政府正悄悄游 说参议院共和党人在9月确认他的提名，理想情况下能让他及时参加美联储9月中旬召开的FOMC会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political maneuvering by former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve, highlighting concerns over the potential loss of the Fed's independence and the implications for the U.S. economy and global markets [1][7][15]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Motivations - Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed for a 14-year term, is likened to a landlord trying to evict a tenant with a long lease, illustrating the absurdity of his actions [3][5]. - The urgency behind Trump's actions is linked to the upcoming elections, as he seeks to lower interest rates to alleviate housing costs and gain voter support [5][12]. - Trump's desire to replace Fed officials with those aligned with his policies indicates a strategy to exert control over the Fed to implement his economic agenda [5][12]. Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve and the Economy - The potential interference in the Fed's operations threatens its independence, which has historically been crucial for maintaining economic stability and managing crises [7][8]. - If the Fed becomes a tool for political agendas, it could lead to market panic, a loss of confidence in the dollar, and increased yields on government bonds, undermining the U.S. economy's credibility [8][10]. - The risk of inflation resurgence is highlighted, as pushing for lower interest rates could reignite inflationary pressures, negatively impacting consumers despite short-term benefits [10][12]. Group 3: Political Calculations and Consequences - Trump's strategy to manipulate the Fed for electoral gain may backfire legally and politically, as courts are likely to uphold the Fed's independence [12][13]. - The public's concern over inflation may overshadow any immediate benefits from lower interest rates, leading to voter dissatisfaction if economic conditions do not improve as expected [12][13]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence for long-term economic health, warning against the dangers of prioritizing short-term political gains over sound economic policy [15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

市场已对美联储独立性危机形成"肌肉记忆"，"特朗普解职库克"的新闻传出后，市场反应与7月16日"特 朗普解职鲍威尔"的"膝跳反射"如出一辙。美债曲线陡峭化、美股期货和美元指数下跌、黄金上涨。库 克通过律师做出回应后，市场反应有所平复，该事件结果尚需美国法律程序裁决，中信证券认为鲍威尔 任内美联储独立性尚能维持。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月27日电中信证券研报称，预计"特朗普解职库克"的案件可能最终会诉诸美国最高法 院，在法律程序进行中库克预计能保留其美联储理事职务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential negative consequences of former President Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could undermine the Fed's independence and exacerbate inflation, contrary to his campaign promises to combat it [1][2]. Economic Overheating Risks - Artificially lowering interest rates may lead to economic overheating and increased inflation, which is the very issue Trump aims to address. Low borrowing costs can stimulate demand excessively, resulting in too many dollars chasing too few goods, a situation that contributed to inflation reaching a 40-year high post-COVID-19 [2]. Mortgage Rate Concerns - If investors become concerned about the Fed's independence and its commitment to controlling inflation, market panic could ensue. This could lead to higher long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, which are already around 7%, worsening the housing affordability crisis [3]. Historical Lessons from Nixon - Historical precedents show that interference with central banks can lead to disastrous outcomes. President Nixon pressured the Fed to adopt expansionary monetary policies before the 1972 election, resulting in runaway inflation that peaked above 13% by 1980, leading to a period known as "stagflation" [4]. Lessons from Erdogan's Turkey - The recent experience of Turkey under President Erdogan, who dismissed the central bank governor and pressured for rate cuts, resulted in a currency collapse and inflation exceeding 80%. This serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of political interference in central banking [5].

美联储发言人于26日发布声明回应称，美联储系统由国会设立，旨在履行其法定使命——包括促进最大 就业、物价稳定和良好运作的金融体系。国会通过《联邦储备法》规定，理事须任满长期、固定的任 期，总统仅能在"有正当理由"的情况下予以罢免。理事的长期任期和免遭随意罢免的保护，是重要的保 障，确保货币政策决策基于数据、经济分析，以及美国人民的长期利益。美联储将继续依法履行其职 责。和以往一样，美联储将遵守任何法院裁决。美联储重申其对透明度、问责制和独立性的承诺，服务 于美国的家庭、社区和企业。 库克的律师26日表示："特朗普总统无权解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克。他试图仅凭一封转介信解雇她，既 没有事实依据，也没有法律依据。我们将提起诉讼，挑战这一非法行为。" 新华财经北京8月27日电因美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库克掀起风波，美国国债收益率周初陷入震 荡，至周二（8月26日）尾盘时段，较上周五变动不大。其中，10年期美债收益率26日下跌2个基点，报 4.25%，完全回吐前一日涨幅；2年期美债收益率跌4个基点，报3.68%，前一日上涨3个基点。 美国总统特朗普于25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克。库克回应 ...

一名共和党国会助手在谈及米兰提名时表示："现在这更像是一场政治立场的表态，也是对特朗普的一 次'公投'。提名这件事本身已经脱离了被提名者的掌控。" （文章来源：新华财经） 这场听证会早在特朗普对库克采取行动前就已在筹备中，目前尚未正式宣布。该听证会将考验共和党人 对特朗普激进重塑美联储计划的支持程度，同时也将为民主党人提供新的契机，向共和党议员施压，要 求其表明对维护美联储独立性的立场。 新华财经北京8月27日电据Politico报道，两名知情人士透露，美国参议院银行委员会预计将于下周就美 联储（临时）理事提名人米兰名举行听证会。 ...