证券研究报告 A股2026年十大预测 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：林煜辉 执业证书编号：S0600124060012 邮箱：linyh@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：谢立昕 执业证书编号：S0600525080001 邮箱：xielx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：蒋珺逸 执业证书编号：S0600525040004 邮箱：jiangjy@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月28日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 回顾2025年提出的十大预测 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期；美债见顶下行迟于预期；地缘政治事件黑天鹅。 数据来源：Wind，东吴证券研究所；注：涨幅若无其他说明，统计区间均为2025年1月1日-2025年12月26日） 2 ◼ 回顾2025年提出的十大预测： ➢ 预测一：A股震荡上行，进入新的波动中枢（万得全A涨幅为28.1%，沪指四季度围绕3900点震荡） ➢ 预测二：2025年A股交易结构比指数更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Shanghai 6G Communication Intelligence Valley marks a significant step in the development and commercialization of 6G technology, aiming to create a robust ecosystem for innovation and collaboration in the telecommunications industry [1][2]. Group 1: Infrastructure and Development - The Shanghai 6G Communication Intelligence Valley has been fully constructed and is operational, covering an area of 60 acres and serving as the core area for the future 6G industry cluster in Shanghai [1]. - The park includes various facilities for technology research and development, incubation acceleration, concept validation, and talent services, with over 30 companies from the telecommunications industry already settled in the area, indicating the initial emergence of industrial cluster effects [2]. Group 2: Applications and Innovations - Six major application scenarios for 6G have been identified internationally, including immersive communication, low-latency communication, ultra-large-scale connectivity, integrated space-ground communication, and the fusion of communication with artificial intelligence and perception [2]. - The "National Science and Technology Innovation" project team has developed non-invasive brain-computer interface products, which are expected to align with the arrival of the 6G era, enhancing consumer-level applications [7][8]. Group 3: Investment and Financial Support - The 6G Communication Intelligence Valley has established a financial support system, including a dedicated fund of 1 billion yuan for the "6G Communication Valley Eagle Cultivation Plan" and a 3 billion yuan 6G industry incubation fund, aiming to attract over 20 billion yuan in industry guidance funds [8]. - The industry anticipates that by 2030, the 6G future industry cluster in Shanghai will aim to achieve an industrial scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, establishing itself as a globally influential base for new-generation mobile communication technology innovation and manufacturing services [8].

Core Insights - The National Venture Capital Guiding Fund has officially launched with an investment of 100 billion RMB, marking a significant entry into the market aimed at revitalizing the venture capital landscape in China [1][2][9]. Group 1: Fund Structure and Strategy - The fund is structured in a three-tier system: a national fund at the top, regional funds in the middle, and sub-funds and direct investment projects at the bottom, designed to leverage investments and stimulate the market [22][26]. - The national fund has a 20-year lifespan, significantly longer than traditional funds, allowing for more patient capital investment in long-term projects [24]. - The fund aims to invest at least 70% of its capital in seed and early-stage companies, focusing on hard technology sectors such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, and future energy [25][16]. Group 2: Market Impact and Objectives - The fund is designed to address the current "money shortage" in the venture capital market, which has been exacerbated by geopolitical factors and a preference for later-stage investments [13][14]. - By eliminating regional investment requirements, the fund allows capital to flow freely to the best projects regardless of location, promoting a unified national market [26][27]. - The initiative is expected to inject significant liquidity into the market, potentially leveraging the initial 100 billion RMB to generate up to 1 trillion RMB in total investment [22][20]. Group 3: Long-term Vision and Challenges - The fund represents a strategic commitment to nurturing innovation and technology in China, responding to the urgent need for investment in critical sectors to maintain competitiveness on a global scale [19][18]. - It acknowledges the high-risk nature of early-stage investments and aims to provide a supportive environment for startups, allowing for a higher tolerance for failure [14][27]. - The fund's establishment is seen as a necessary step to overcome existing barriers in the venture capital ecosystem, fostering a more dynamic and innovative entrepreneurial landscape [3][27].

·国家创业投资引导基金启动聚焦人工智能、6G等前沿领域预计撬动万亿级社会资本 ·人民银行：着力健全有利于"长钱长投"的制度政策环境显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资A股的规模和 比例 ·白银"挤兑"愈演愈烈 COMEX白银主力合约涨11.15% ·12月26日，国家创业投资引导基金启动，京津冀创业投资引导基金、长三角创业投资引导基金、粤港 澳大湾区创业投资引导基金三只区域基金设立运行。财政部相关负责人表示，国家创业投资引导基金具 备以下新的特点：一是财政力度更大；二是投资定位更精准，基金以"投早、投小、投长期、投硬科 技"为鲜明导向，聚焦人工智能、生物制药、量子科技、6G等前沿领域，以长达15年—20年的存续周期 匹配硬科技、长周期的研发需求；三是资金放大效果好，基金采取引导基金、区域基金、子基金三层架 构，在区域基金及子基金层面，积极面向地方政府、金融机构、国有企业、民营企业等，通过千亿级财 政资金，预计将撬动万亿级的社会资本。（新华财经） ·中国人民银行发布《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》，其中指出，中国证监会、财政部、人力资源社会 保障部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局等相关部门将立足大局，加强协作，形成合力， ...

Group 1 - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, with a lifespan of 15 to 20 years to match the long-term R&D needs of hard technology [2] - The fund aims to leverage a substantial fiscal investment to mobilize trillions in social capital, with at least 70% of investments directed towards seed and early-stage companies [2][3] - The fund operates as a "fund of funds," delegating decision-making to regional funds, which enhances efficiency and separates government guidance from market operations [2] Group 2 - Japan's new fiscal year budget is set at approximately 122.3 trillion yen (about $786 billion), marking a 6.3% increase from the previous year's budget [4] - The government plans to issue around 29.6 trillion yen in new bonds to support this budget, with a slight reduction in reliance on debt issuance [4][5] - The budget focuses on social security, debt repayment, and defense spending, reflecting the increasing financial pressures due to an aging population and rising costs [4][5] Group 3 - China's civil aviation sector is projected to achieve a record high of 770 million passenger trips in 2025, a 5.4% increase from 2024 and a 16.6% increase from 2019 [6] - The average economy class ticket price is expected to drop by 2.9% to 740 yuan, indicating a strategy of "price for volume" among airlines [6][7] - Despite the increase in passenger numbers, the low ticket prices are compressing profit margins, raising concerns about the sustainability of this pricing strategy [7] Group 4 - The robot rental market is experiencing explosive growth, with daily rental prices for basic intelligent robots dropping to around 200 yuan, while more advanced models range from 2,000 to 5,000 yuan [8] - The demand for robot rentals is high, with bookings extending into February, but prices are fluctuating significantly [8] - The market for humanoid robots is still in its early stages, and broader applications are needed for significant growth [9] Group 5 - The price of tomatoes has surged, with retail prices in many regions exceeding 10 yuan per jin, reflecting a nearly 71.9% year-on-year increase [10] - Adverse weather conditions have impacted supply, leading to higher prices during a seasonal transition period [10] - The demand for tomatoes is expected to rise further as the New Year and Spring Festival approach, maintaining upward pressure on prices [10] Group 6 - A report from Visa indicates that 28% of American adults would be pleased to receive cryptocurrency as a gift, with this figure rising to 45% among Gen Z [11] - Nearly half of shoppers have utilized AI tools for shopping tasks, highlighting the growing integration of technology in consumer behavior [11][12] - The rising inflation has made cryptocurrency a more appealing gift option, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards asset-based gifts [11] Group 7 - The LOF market has seen significant volatility, with multiple funds experiencing rapid price fluctuations, indicating potential irrational trading behavior [13] - The recent surge in silver prices has created arbitrage opportunities in the LOF market, but the risks associated with such trading strategies are evident [13] - The complexity of LOF products and the lack of transparency can lead to vulnerabilities for ordinary investors [13] Group 8 - The stock market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.1% amid a volatile trading session [14] - Market sentiment showed signs of recovery after a brief dip, although many stocks turned from gains to losses [14] - The trading volume was substantial, indicating active market participation despite the fluctuations [14]

保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定 大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融 显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资A股的规模和比例 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，防范化解重点领域风险 做好房地产金融宏观审慎管理，牢牢守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线 1、央行发布中国金融稳定报告：显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资A股的规模和比例 重要程度：★★★★★ 近日，中国人民银行发布了《中国金融稳定报告(2025)》。核心要点如下： 市场监管总局强调，全行业要充分认识整治光伏行业"内卷式"竞争的重要性。光伏企业要依法依规开展生 产经营，严禁价格串通、价格欺诈等不正当价格行为；坚决杜绝虚假宣传、商业贿赂等不正当竞争行为。 发电企业要切实承担起应负责任，在光伏项目招标中坚持优质优价，加强对产品质量的要求。行业协会要 切实履行自律职能，引导企业通过创新提升、质量优化和服务升级实现共赢，共同推动形成健康有序、可 持续发展的行业生态。 加力支持国家重大战略、经济社会发展的重点领域和薄弱环节 2、重磅！商业火箭企业IPO迎大利好 券商看好这些细分投资方向 重要程度：★★★★ 12月26日，上交所发布《上海证券交易所发行上市 ...

★ 宏观动态 ★ 工信部：加强算力网络体系建设，深入实施城域"毫秒用算"专项行动 12月25日至26日，全国工业和信息化工作会议在京召开。会议强调，2026年要围绕实现"十五五"良好开局，聚 焦重点、抓住关键，突出抓好十个方面重点工作。其中包括，推动信息通信业高质量发展。启动实施"宽带升 级"专项，开展新一轮万兆光网试点。加快移动物联网"万物智联"发展。加强算力网络体系建设，深入实施城 域"毫秒用算"专项行动。组织开展2026电信业务"明白办、放心用"行动。强化重要数据和核心数据识别与保 护，推动建立汽车等重点领域数据跨境流动机制。发布新版《无线电频率划分规定》，出台低空经济发展等领 域频率开发利用指南。 财政部：国家创业投资引导基金预计撬动万亿级社会资本 12月26日，国家创业投资引导基金启动仪式上，财政部相关负责人表示，国家创业投资引导基金具备以下新的 特点：一是财政力度更大；二是投资定位更精准，基金以"投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技"为鲜明导向，聚焦 人工智能、生物制药、量子科技、6G等前沿领域，以长达15年—20年的存续周期匹配硬科技、长周期的研发 需求；三是资金放大效果好。基金采取引导基金、区域基金、 ...

在佛山三水区，紧邻云东海国家湿地公园，盛路通信的新总部正处施工阶段。 这座由Infinity Arhictects无量建筑设计的新地标，不只是企业的新家，更承载着与自然相伴、与技术共 进的未来愿景。园区与湿地为邻，在生态底色中植入产业基因，呼应着公司从制造走向智造、从地面通 信迈向空天一体的大格局。 盛路通信自1998年创立以来，已在天线与射频领域稳居行业前沿。公司占地150亩，拥有近七万平方米 厂房与超千名员工，资产规模约39亿元，背后是一支百余人的技术团队持续驱动创新。 办公楼以悬浮之态立于园区，仿佛象征着企业扎根云端通信、仰望星空的发展姿态，也暗含持续迭代、 创新不止的生命力。 如今，他们正将目光投向更远处：从微波技术到卫星通信，再到6G前瞻布局；从传统地面设备到低轨 卫星相控阵天线，甚至延伸至无人机通信与低空组网。与此同时，与华为等伙伴的深度合作，让产品跨 越山海，覆盖全球超过180个国家和地区。 而在三水这片土地上，一座"第四代智能化工厂"正在成型。这里不仅是生产的场所，更是全流程数字 化、自动化的试验场与展示窗。人工智能与信息化技术渗透每个环节，推动制造走向真正意义的"智 造"。 你期待在这样的建 ...

Core Insights - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched, with three regional funds established: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, managed by CICC Capital, State Investment and Development Corporation, and Shenzhen Capital Group respectively [1][4] Group 1: Fund Characteristics - Increased financial support: The fund utilizes long-term special national debt funding, with a total of 100 billion yuan contributed by the central government to leverage central financial resources [1] - More precise investment focus: The fund emphasizes "early, small, long-term, and hard technology" investments, targeting cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, with a lifespan of 15 to 20 years to match the long-term R&D needs of hard technology [1] - Enhanced fund operation model: The fund operates under a "mother fund + regional fund + sub-fund" model, aiming to mobilize social capital at a scale of trillions through substantial fiscal resources [2] Group 2: Management Mechanism - Improved management mechanism: The fund will be operated in a market-oriented manner by capable management institutions, with plans to explore a due diligence exemption mechanism and a full lifecycle assessment mechanism to enhance fund vitality and encourage long-term focus [3] Group 3: Regional Fund Focus - Yangtze River Delta Venture Capital Guidance Fund: This fund is jointly funded by national and multi-level state-owned assets from Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, focusing on investments in artificial intelligence, quantum technology, hydrogen energy storage, biomanufacturing, embodied intelligence, and 6G, supporting original and disruptive technological innovations [4]

【重点关注】 ·国家创业投资引导基金启动预计撬动万亿级社会资本 ·工信部：有序开展卫星物联网等新业务商用试验 ·预计降费超8亿元深交所推出2026年降费措施 ·市场监管总局开展规范光伏行业价格竞争秩序合规指导 ·现货白银价格一度突破每盎司75美元 【国内要闻】 ·12月26日，国家创业投资引导基金启动，京津冀创业投资引导基金、长三角创业投资引导基金、粤港 澳大湾区创业投资引导基金三只区域基金设立运行。财政部相关负责人表示，国家创业投资引导基金具 备以下新的特点：一是财政力度更大；二是投资定位更精准，基金以"投早、投小、投长期、投硬科 技"为鲜明导向，聚焦人工智能、生物制药、量子科技、6G等前沿领域，以长达15年—20年的存续周期 匹配硬科技、长周期的研发需求；三是资金放大效果好，基金采取引导基金、区域基金、子基金三层架 构，在区域基金及子基金层面，积极面向地方政府、金融机构、国有企业、民营企业等，通过千亿级财 政资金，预计将撬动万亿级的社会资本。 ·财政部等四部门发布《关于进一步发挥政府性融资担保体系作用加力支持就业创业的指导意见》，其 中指出，降低创业群体综合融资成本。鼓励有条件的地方在可持续经营的基础上， ...