长按即可免费加入哦 昨夜今晨，海外市场表现也不平静！ 截至当地时间14日收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨1.65%，标普500指数涨2.13%，纳斯达克指数涨 2.61%。标普500也创下大选以来最大反弹。 不过从本周来看，道指跌3.07%，标普500指数跌2.27%，纳指跌2.43%。其中，道指创下自2023年 3月以来最大单周跌幅，标普500指数和纳指连续第四周下跌。 消息上，美国政府关门危机解除。据央视新闻报道，当地时间3月14日，美国国会参议院就短期支 出法案进行投票，以62票赞成、38票反对的票数通过该法案。 美国国会众议院当地时间11日以微弱优势通过短期支出法案，基本按现有支出水平维持联邦政府 运转至9月30日即2025财政年度结束。参议院需要在14日午夜之前就该法案采取行动，以保持政府 正常运转。 此外，当地时间3月14日，美国财政部长贝森特当日在致议员的一封信中表示，财政部将延长特别 措施的使用期限至6月27日，以允许联邦政府支付账单，直到国会解决债务上限问题。 报道称，美国在1月21日达到约36万亿美元的债务上限，迫使财政部采取特别措施并动用手头的现 金，以避免违约。贝森特指出，由于"相当大的不确定性 ...

Domestic Economic Insights - China's February PMI data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong start to the domestic economy with a continued recovery trend[3] - The government set an economic growth target of around 5% for 2025, aligning with market expectations and boosting growth confidence[3] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, with a deficit scale of CNY 5.66 trillion, indicating a significant increase in government spending[3] - There are expectations for further monetary policy easing, including potential interest rate cuts, to support the stock market and real estate sector in the medium to long term[3] International Economic Concerns - The US February ISM manufacturing PMI reached 50.3, the highest since June 2022, while the non-manufacturing PMI was 53.5, above expectations[3] - The US job market showed signs of slowing, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 151,000, below the expected 160,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%[3] - The escalation of tariffs by the US on Chinese goods and potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada have raised concerns about a deteriorating economic outlook for the US, increasing expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] Market Strategy Recommendations - Maintain a cautious bullish stance on the four major A-share index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in the short term[3] - Commodity markets should be observed cautiously, with a preference for precious metals due to increased safe-haven demand amid tariff escalations[3] - The overall ranking for investment strategy is: stock indices > commodities > government bonds[3] Risk Factors - Potential for unexpected tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve[3] - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to US-China relations[3] - Escalation of the US-China trade conflict could further impact market sentiment[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential negative impacts of President Trump's new tariffs on agricultural sectors and consumer prices in the U.S., highlighting warnings from various stakeholders about the economic consequences of these trade policies [1][2][7]. Group 1: Impact on Agriculture - The American agricultural organization warns that the new tariffs could significantly increase costs for farmers, particularly those growing corn and soybeans, leading to greater financial losses [2][3]. - The tariffs are expected to raise fertilizer costs for U.S. farmers, as approximately 85% of potash fertilizer is imported from Canada, compounding the financial strain on farmers already facing high costs [3]. - The U.S. agricultural export value for 2024 is projected to be $191 billion, with Canada, China, and Mexico being the top three destinations, accounting for nearly half of U.S. agricultural exports [2]. Group 2: Consumer Price Increases - Retail executives, including Target's CEO Brian Cornell, indicate that consumers may soon see price increases on agricultural products due to the tariffs on imports from Mexico [4][5]. - Walmart and Costco executives also warned that unless the tariffs are lifted, key consumer prices will rise, affecting essential goods [6]. - The National Retail Federation has urged the Trump administration to collaborate with Canada and Mexico instead of imposing tariffs, emphasizing that such measures harm American workers and businesses [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The tariffs have led to widespread opposition from various sectors, including businesses, economists, and investors, who fear the negative impact on prices and the overall economy [7]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for increased construction costs due to tariffs on Canadian lumber, which could affect housing affordability [7]. - The European Union has criticized the U.S. tariffs, calling for a reconsideration of trade policies that could disrupt global trade and create unnecessary uncertainty [8].

《 关税再加码，A股节奏仍将以我为主 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月2日累计收益4.66%。 每周思考总第617期 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 高仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 高仓位 | | 风格判断 | 小盘 | 观点简述： 春节后第四周市场终于开启调整，沪深300指数涨幅-2.22%，上证综指周涨幅-1.72%，中证500指 数周涨幅-3.26%。2月27日美国宣布对中国商品再加征10%关税，叠加传统2月末处置效应，A股出现 单日大幅调整。 基本面上，中国经济节奏仍把控在我们自己手中。 国内方面，继1月官方PMI明降实升后，周六 披露的2月官方PMI再度超预期回升，表明春节期间中国经济总体上保持平稳回升，考虑到2月美方已 开始对我加征10%关税，表明中国内生经济的活跃度回升部分对冲了外需波动，当然也要清楚看到当 前国内经济只是暂时稳态，在后续美国关税不断加码后仍需更多对冲性质的财政货币政策出台；海外 方面，上周五的美乌总统会晤成为全球焦点事件，最终矿产换和平的 ...