荷兰银行上调人民币汇率预测，因贸易协议改善经济前景。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese yuan (RMB) has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching its highest value since April 7, driven by positive market sentiment following the US-China trade talks and supportive domestic macroeconomic policies [1][2][3] - The RMB to USD central parity rate reported by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System was 7.1991, with offshore and onshore RMB touching 7.1780 and 7.1855 respectively, marking the highest levels of the year [1] - Factors contributing to the RMB's appreciation include the unexpected reduction in tariffs from the US-China trade talks, which has boosted market confidence and led to a comprehensive appreciation of the RMB [1][2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has indicated a commitment to implementing proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth, which is expected to provide significant support for the RMB [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the RMB's future trajectory will depend on the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the performance of the US dollar, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation process for the RMB [2][3] - The potential for further appreciation of the RMB is noted, particularly as the negative impact of tariffs on the US economy becomes more apparent, suggesting that the most significant depreciation pressures on the RMB may have passed [2]

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，市场情绪受到很大提 振，是人民币汇率在美元指数快速冲高过程中走强的主要原因。这意味着人民币正在经历一个全面升值 过程。 王青还表示，近期人民币汇率出现稳中偏强走势，还与国内宏观政策释放稳增长信号直接相关。4月25 日中央政治局会议做出明确部署，要求"加强超常规逆周期调节"，"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"。这意味着尽管外部经贸环境变数加大，但接下来宏观政策将采取强有力的对冲措施，着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有效稳定宏观经济运行。这也对人民币汇率提供了重要支撑。 中国人民银行在2025年第一季度《中国货币政策执行报告》中表示，2025年以来国际形势复杂严峻，主 要经济体宏观政策不确定性明显上升，对全球经济增长产生负面冲击，全球金融市场剧烈波动。一季 度，中国人民银行坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用，发挥好汇率对宏观经济、国际收支的调节功 能，综合施策，保持预期平稳，在复杂形势下保持住人民币汇率的基本稳定。 21世纪经济报道记者 林秋彤 北京报道 5月13日，在岸和离岸人民币汇率双双拉升，重回7.20元以内，同时创下自2024年 ...

5月13日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1991，上调75点；上一交易日中间价为7.2066。 人民币对美元汇率延续涨势，在岸、离岸人民币对美元双双升破7.19关口，离岸人民币盘中一度升破7.18关口。 截至13日10时16分，在岸人民币对美元报7.1888，日内涨244个基点；离岸人民币对美元报7.1814，日内涨182个基点。 消息面上，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》于昨日发布，市场普遍认为关税的下降幅度和节奏明显超市场预期。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元兑人民 | 7.1888 | -0.34% | | USDCNY.IB | | | | 美元兑离岸 | 7.18140 | -0.25% | | USDCNH.FX | | | 机构看好人民币 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛指出当前人民币汇率具备四方面支撑力量。 第一，特朗普关税反噬美国经济。若关税政策导致美国经济放缓、失业上升，美联储大概率将重启降息。考虑到其降息空间更大（通常为25个基点甚至更 高），这将削弱美元、支撑人民币。 第二，美元信用危机仍未解除。由于关税限制美元通过贸易逆差输出流动性，市场对 ...

100日元 4.8633人民币 100加元 516.23人民币 100港元 92.374人民币 100英镑 950.47人民币 100澳元 459.8人民币 100新西兰元 422.7人民币 100新加坡元 552.49人民币 100瑞士法郎 853.55人民币 100人民币 111.56澳门元 100人民币 59.787马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1124.25俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 253.25南非兰特 100人民币 19638韩元 100人民币 50.921阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币 52.002沙特里亚尔 100人民币 5064.7匈牙利福林 100人民币 53.009波兰兹罗提 100人民币 93.22丹麦克朗 100人民币 136.19瑞典克朗 100人民币 144.86挪威克朗 100人民币 537.875土耳其里拉 100人民币 272.25墨西哥比索 100人民币 462.89泰铢（完） 新华社北京5月13日电 中国外汇交易中心5月13日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗 ...

"中美贸易谈判达成'重要共识'，是人民币汇率短期显著走强的直接驱动因素。"著名经济学家宋清辉分析，这预示两国贸易关系出现重要缓和迹象，这降低 了贸易冲突进一步升级的风险。 "中美贸易谈判达成'重要共识'，是人民币汇率短期显著走强的直接驱动因素。"著名经济学家宋清辉分析，这预示两国贸易关系出现重要缓和迹 象，这降低了贸易冲突进一步升级的风险。 信心十足/人民币汇价曾升穿7.2 创半年高 中美贸易谈判达成重要共识，推动市场预期迅速回暖，人民币与美元汇率同步走强。昨日离岸人民币汇率盘中一度涨超400点，最高升见7.1929，续创去年 11月以来新高。在岸人民币中间价昨日上调29点至7.2066，在岸人民币日间收盘价更较上日升329点报7.2132。分析称，中美贸易关系出现重要缓和迹象，降 低了贸易冲突进一步升级的风险，提振了市场对人民币资产的信心。中美在贸易问题上达成重要共识，有望为二、三季度人民币汇率提供稳定的环境，不排 除汇率阶段性继续走强的可能。 国际资本流入中国股债 宋清辉认为，二、三季度人民币汇率走势，取决于三大因素。一是中美经贸共识的后续落实情况，若双方沟通顺利，贸易摩擦或持续降温，进而为人民币汇 率提 ...

中金公司指出，二季度人民币汇率核心驱动因素转向中国经济修复斜率与美联储政策预期的博弈。随着 中国经济持续复苏，经济数据的不断向好将为人民币汇率提供坚实的支撑。美联储货币政策的不确定 性，如加息或降息的决策，也将对人民币汇率产生重要影响。预计汇率中枢将在7.15至7.30区间形成新 的均衡。 高盛预计，人民币汇率将在12个月内升至1美元兑7元人民币，此前预期为7.35。高盛目前预测美元兑人 民币汇率在3个月内将达到7.20，6个月内将升至7.10。 当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平， 美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"， 中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 （文章来源：新华财经） 招商宏观研报称，中美关税谈判取得积极成果，叠加5月7日推出的支持稳市场稳预期的一揽子金融政 策，预计国内市场风险偏好将持续回暖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for high-quality development and effective policies to address external uncertainties, while also focusing on boosting domestic demand and consumption to support economic growth [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to implement a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, while maintaining liquidity and flexibility in policy implementation [1][5]. - The report highlights the importance of balancing support for the real economy with the health of the banking system, especially in light of rising non-performing loan ratios [5]. Inflation and Demand - The PBOC identifies low inflation as primarily a result of weak demand against strong supply, stressing that boosting effective demand is crucial for price recovery [2][3]. - The report outlines constraints on effective demand recovery, including global trade tensions and the slow transition to new economic drivers [2]. Consumption and Financial Support - Enhancing consumption is deemed essential for expanding domestic demand, with the PBOC advocating for improved financial services to support consumer spending [3]. - The PBOC suggests that a moderately loose monetary policy can create a favorable environment for consumption finance, alongside structural support for key consumption sectors [3]. Government Debt Sustainability - The PBOC asserts that China's government debt expansion remains sustainable due to a favorable asset-liability structure, with total government assets at 166% of GDP and total liabilities at 75% of GDP [4]. - The comparison with the U.S. and Japan highlights China's relatively lower net debt levels and substantial state-owned assets, indicating a robust financial position [4]. Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC maintains that the RMB exchange rate will continue to fluctuate based on market supply and demand, with a focus on stabilizing the currency at a reasonable level [6]. - The report emphasizes the need for financial institutions to provide exchange rate hedging services to small and medium-sized enterprises [6].

金十数据5月13日讯，招商宏观研报称，中美关税谈判取得积极成果，叠加5月7日推出的支持稳市场稳 预期的一揽子金融政策，预计国内市场风险偏好将持续回暖，人民币汇率继续保持在7.10-7.3区间。贝 森特表示7月4日左右将拿出"减税法案2.0"，中美关税谈判取得积极成果叠加积极的财政态度或令美 股、美元继续受到一定提振。 招商宏观：预计人民币汇率继续保持在7.10-7.3区间 ...

Group 1 - The central government has emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announcing a series of measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [2][5] - The PBOC's recent report indicates that monetary policy will continue to support the economy, focusing on implementation and effectiveness evaluation [2][5] - The report highlights the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments due to external uncertainties affecting exports, particularly from U.S. tariff policies [3][4] Group 2 - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to support fiscal policy, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds [4] - The PBOC aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market to support these fiscal measures, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [6][7] - The report outlines specific policy tools to support sectors such as technology finance, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in new funding [7] Group 3 - The PBOC is maintaining a focus on the stability of the financial markets, particularly in the context of recent fluctuations in the international financial markets due to U.S. trade policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, reflecting concerns over banks' net interest margins [5][9] - The PBOC's assessment of government debt sustainability indicates that China's fiscal policy still has room for expansion, supporting the notion of continued monetary easing [10] Group 4 - The report expands its focus to include various economic indicators, such as the evolution of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and the sustainability of government debt, reflecting a comprehensive approach to monetary policy [9][10] - The PBOC acknowledges the current low inflation environment and the need for policies that stimulate effective demand while managing supply-side constraints [10][11] - The overall strategy involves deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policy measures to achieve a balance between supply and demand, while fostering a conducive environment for reasonable price recovery [11]