今日推荐 中央经济工作会议中关于2026年货币政策延续适度宽松的基调，显示出宏观政策保持很强的连续性、稳 定性。除了总量政策提出运用降准降息外，会议还要求畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持 扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 当地时间11日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在会见记者时表示，在获得国际伙伴提供充分安全保障前提下，他 愿意支持在战时状态下举行大选，并已要求议员着手准备相关立法修订。泽连斯基在与记者会面时表 示，"最重要的是确保选举的合法性。如果我们的合作伙伴能够帮助我们在安全条件下、在合理时间内 组织选举，我将予以支持。为避免这仅仅成为我发出的一个媒体信号，我已正式请求乌克兰议员起草允 许在战时状态期间举行选举的法律修正案。"泽连斯基强调，当前关键目标是以乌克兰的强势地位结束 冲突。 美国电动车制造商特斯拉公司、太空探索技术公司创始人埃隆·马斯克日前表示，如果重来，他不会领 导"政府效率部"，而是专注运营自己的企业。马斯克说："我想我总体上会在我的公司工作，而不是领 导'政府效率部'。这样他们（反对者）就不会烧车了。" 编辑 | 格蕾丝 在11日召开的商务部例行新闻发布会上，新闻发言人表示，今 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report provides a bias assessment for various varieties, with "√" indicating a bullish bias and "V" (assuming it's a typo and should be "√") indicating a bullish bias as well: - Bullish: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), Treasury bonds (TS), Rubber, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Lithium carbonate, Cotton, Corn [5] - Bearish: Crude oil, Methanol, Apple, Container shipping to Europe [5] 2. Report's Core View - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote economic development and stabilize the market [1][7][11] - Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated, and the resonance of positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut may boost market risk appetite [3][10] - Different futures varieties show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic factors 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 reached 236,000, the highest since the week of September 6, 2025 [6] - **Domestic News**: The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10 - 11 pointed out the overall requirements and policy orientation for next year's economic work, including continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, stabilizing the real estate market, and resolving local government debt risks [7] - **Industry News**: In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles both approached 15 million, with exports of new energy vehicles doubling year - on - year [7] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report shows the daily returns of various overseas futures on December 10 - 11, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,901.00 points, and ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.55% to $61.55 per barrel [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the previous trading day's decline, with the improvement of the system, the expansion of funds, and the empowerment of industries, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market may be consolidated. The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December and the positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [3][10] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.831%. The market liquidity is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut and the expected introduction of domestic policies support the short - term Treasury bond futures [11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session fell 1.27%. The IEA raised the forecast for oil demand growth in 2026, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to factors such as weak European demand [13] - **Methanol**: Methanol's night - session fell 1.83%. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plant operating rate decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory decreased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [14] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply elasticity is weakening. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the previous price decline was affected by the weakening of crude oil and the overall commodity market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the price continued to be weak [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to be weak, and soda ash futures mainly declined. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to the potential changes in industrial production and the recovery of the real estate industry chain [17] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion are expected to boost market liquidity and support the long - term upward trend of precious metals [18] - **Copper**: The night - session copper price rose more than 2% due to the Fed's unexpected action. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Zinc**: The night - session zinc price rose nearly 3% due to the Fed's action. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and related factors [20] - **Aluminum**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum rose 0.82%. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support the aluminum price. In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and the demand is okay in the off - season. The upward momentum is weakening in the short term, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is expected to decline. The short - term supply disturbance is the focus. It is recommended to take a bullish view after a callback [22][23] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak. The steel mill's production reduction expectation and the increase in Mongolian coal imports put pressure on the price, but the strong policy expectation in December may provide upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price declined. The shipping volume increased slightly, and the port inventory increased slightly. The steel mill's demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [25] - **Steel Products**: The steel price volatility increased. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The steel price has short - term rebound momentum but is expected to be weak in the medium term [26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night - session soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year, and the US soybean export is slow. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session soybean and palm oil futures were weak, and rapeseed oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil is expected to be strong in the short term due to positive news [28] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly and are expected to be weak in the short term. The international raw sugar price is affected by Brazil and India, and the domestic supply is increasing, but the cost provides some support [29] - **Cotton**: The overnight cotton price was weak but still above the upper limit of the range. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to factors such as fast sales progress, potential reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 2.04%. The shipping companies' price - holding intention is strong in December and early January. The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline due to supply surplus and potential red - sea route resumption [31]

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 强于大市 中央经济工作会议解读 稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式 事件： 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。关于房地产的表述有两部分。一 部分在坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚 持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控 增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公 积金制度改革，有序推动'好房子'建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 核心观点 投资建议 风险提示 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《房地产底线逻辑研究系列报告一：银行直供房热 度背后的真相》（2025/12/05） 《10 月楼市成交同比增速由正转负；房地产高质量 发展列入新的五年规划——房地产行业 2025 年 10 月月报》（2025/11/18） 《受高基数以及政策效果减弱影响，单月销售降幅 扩大；今年以来投资降幅持续扩大——房地产行业 2025 年 10 月统计局数据点评》（2025/11/16） 《房地产行业 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties [1][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for a flexible and efficient monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [7][11] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital flow, and industrial empowerment, with a potential increase in market risk appetite following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [3][10] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to increased supply pressure from domestic sugar factories and high production costs, despite some international price rebounds [2][29] - Copper prices rose over 2% due to expectations from the Federal Reserve's actions, with supply disruptions leading to a shift in global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [3][19] - The aluminum market is supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, while short-term price momentum may weaken due to seasonal demand fluctuations [21] Group 3: Industry-Specific Developments - The automotive industry in China saw a record monthly production exceeding 3.5 million vehicles in November, with significant growth in new energy vehicle production and exports [8] - The international sugar market is influenced by Brazil's faster-than-expected sugarcane processing and India's production recovery, which may impact global sugar prices [2][29] - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a slight increase in production capacity, but overall supply remains under pressure due to import delays and stable demand [14][29]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [1] - Experts predict an increase in fiscal support for consumption in the coming year, with measures including proactive fiscal policies, potential interest rate cuts, and stabilization of the real estate market to achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - OpenAI officially launched the GPT-5.2 series, claiming it to be the most powerful model for professional knowledge work, surpassing previous versions in reasoning and financial modeling capabilities [2] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce policies to accelerate innovation and development in the retail sector, aiming to enhance the quality of goods and services and promote fair competition between online and offline channels [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market sentiment is positive following the Central Economic Work Conference, with historical data suggesting that the market tends to perform well in the week following such announcements [6] - Analysts expect a period of resonance among policies, liquidity, and fundamentals, with a focus on technology growth and large financial sectors [7] - Short-term market adjustments are anticipated, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to test support around 3850 points [8] Group 4: Emerging Opportunities - The collaboration between SK Hynix and NVIDIA to develop next-generation AI NAND storage products is seen as a significant opportunity, with expectations for increased demand for SSDs driven by AI applications [9] - The nuclear fusion sector is entering a phase of intensive bidding, with multiple projects like "Spark One" being initiated, indicating potential growth in capital expenditures in the industry [10] - The tungsten market is expected to remain tight due to supply constraints, leading to a sustained increase in tungsten prices over the next 3-5 years [11]

21 ir 学习领悟中央经济工作会议 提出的"五个必须" e36期 新华社国内部制作 新华社第一工作室出品 12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记发表重要讲话，总结2025年经济工 作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 会议鲜明提出，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会，即"五个必须"—— 必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚 持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。"五个必须"既对以往经济实践作出了深刻精 辟的总结，也为做好当前和今后一个时期的经济工作提供了思想指引和行动指南。 必须充分挖掘经济潜能—— 另一方面，强调"坚持改革攻坚"，明确"制定全国统一大市场建设条例""深入整治'内卷式'竞争""制定和 实施进一步深化国资国企改革方案""拓展要素市场化改革试点"等重点领域与关键环节。 政策支持和改革创新融合促进，政策工具与制度安排相互支撑，既推动现实问题解决，确保实现稳中求 进，又有利于提质增效，实现更高质量、更具韧 ...

中央经济工作会议最新信号，结构性货币政策工具"加量降价"可期 中央经济工作会议中关于2026年货币政策延续适度宽松的基调，显示出宏观政策保持很强的连续性、稳 定性。除了总量政策提出运用降准降息外，会议还要求畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持 扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 泽连斯基：若获安全保障 愿支持在战时举行大选 【今日推荐】 马斯克：若重来，不会领导"政府效率部" 美国电动车制造商特斯拉公司、太空探索技术公司创始人埃隆·马斯克日前表示，如果重来，他不会领 导"政府效率部"，而是专注运营自己的企业。马斯克说："我想我总体上会在我的公司工作，而不是领 导'政府效率部'。这样他们（反对者）就不会烧车了。" 【观国内】 中央部署明年财政政策：重视解决地方财政困难 中央经济工作会议称，明年要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出 总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困 难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 当地时间11日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在会见记者时表示，在获得国际伙伴提供充分安全保障前提下 ...

Economic Policy - The meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on the integration effects of stock and incremental policies [1][6] - The fiscal policy maintains a proactive stance, with a reduction in the emphasis on increasing the deficit ratio compared to last year, while highlighting the need to maintain necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure [1][6] - The expected fiscal budget deficit ratio for next year is projected to remain around 4%, with a slight increase in special bonds for local governments [1][6] - The monetary policy will utilize various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, with a potential interest rate cut of about 10 basis points expected in the first half of next year [1][6] Domestic Demand Expansion - The meeting outlined the direction for building a strong domestic market, focusing on boosting consumer spending and increasing income [2][7] - Specific actions include implementing special initiatives to stimulate consumption and developing plans to increase urban and rural residents' income [2][7] - The goal is to stabilize fixed asset investment and reduce its drag on the economy, with an increase in central budget investment and the use of new policy financial tools to support investment growth [2][7] Industrial Development - There is a stronger emphasis on building innovative systems and mechanisms, with clear policy expectations for education, technology, and talent development [2][7] - The industrial policy is expected to follow the "14th Five-Year Plan" framework, focusing on traditional industries, emerging future industries, and AI technology integration [2][7] Reform Initiatives - The meeting highlighted four key areas for reform: unifying the market, stimulating the vitality of various business entities, tax system reform, and financial-related reforms [3][8] - Emphasis on addressing "involution" competition and optimizing the layout of state-owned enterprises while supporting private enterprises through relaxed access and resolving payment arrears [3][8] - Tax reforms will focus on improving the local tax system and potentially shifting consumption tax collection to local levels [3][8] Social Welfare - A comprehensive plan was proposed to address key social issues such as employment, education, healthcare, and social security [4][9] - New measures include encouraging flexible employment participation in insurance, increasing high school enrollment, and optimizing drug procurement and healthcare payment reforms [4][9] - The meeting also stressed the importance of stabilizing the birth rate and addressing risks in key areas, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [4][9]

【招商证券研发中心宏观首席张静静：中央经济工作会议定调 明年政策仍较为积极】智通财经12月11 日电，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，为经济发展锚定方向。招商证券研发中心宏观首席张静静解读认 为，从会议定调来看，我国经济保持长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势，2026年政策力度不会出现显著的 变化，但去库存重回房地产市场政策工具箱、促进物价合理回升成为明年货币政策的主要目标等新提法 或新要求显示明年政策仍较为积极。一方面，更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策将继续实施； 另一方面，预计明年的预算赤字率、新增政府债务规模等指标将维持现有水平，货币政策将继续调整政 策利率、结构性政策工具利率以及法定存款准备金率。（智通财经记者 林坚） 转自：智通财经 ...

2025.12.11 本文字数：1939，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，其中对明年财政政策 作出具体部署。 会议称，明年要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财 政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基 层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 中国自2008年国际金融危机之后，就一直采取积极财政政策，也就是扩张性财政政策，即在经济增长乏 力时，通过增加支出、扩大赤字、发行政府债券、增加转移支付等手段，刺激总需求，促进经济复苏和 增长的宏观调控政策。 2025年中央首次提出实施"更加积极"财政政策，此次会议明确2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这 意味着财政政策将持续发力以稳经济。 近些年受经济下行等多重因素影响，财政收入增长乏力，而要保持一定的财政支出力度，就需要政府适 度增加举债，弥补收支缺口。 2025年"更加积极"财政政策背后，是当年财政赤字率从上一年的3%提高至4%历史高位，包括超长期特 别国债、专项债 ...