炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：证券日报 并购重组是上市公司提升发展质量和市场竞争力的重要方式。Wind资讯数据显示，今年以来截至8月19 日，A股共有118家上市公司公布重大资产重组事项，产业整合活力加速释放，助力企业进一步培育新 的盈利增长点。 上市公司回报股东意识也显著增强。据中国上市公司协会披露的数据，2024年度沪深A股上市公司现金 分红总额为2.4万亿元，较2023年度增长9%；连续分红的上市公司数量逐年增多。随着2025年半年报陆 续披露，截至8月19日，已有逾百家公司披露2025年中期分红预案，A股上市公司积极回馈投资者渐成 风尚，进一步为长期投资提供信心。 ■张敏 8月18日，A股迎来两大重要里程碑：上证指数创出近10年新高，A股总市值首次突破100万亿元大关。 近年来，监管层持续推动中长期资金入市，引导树立理性投资、价值投资、长期投资的理念，为资本市 场深化改革与健康发展指明路径。笔者认为，当下A股市场的强劲表现，背后有着政策制度、资金和企 业基本面等多重支撑，也与践行"三投资"理念（理性投资、价值投资、长期投资）息息相关。 其一，制度根基不 ...

上证指数已冲破3700点，市场热情再度被点燃，私募基金的净值曲线也悄然书写着新的标杆故事。近 日，私募行业再传捷报，康曼德资本旗下一只成立11年的产品累计回报率突破1000%，成为行业瞩目 的"十倍基"。 事实上，这并非私募行业首次诞生"十倍基"。中国证券报记者调研了解到，私募基金在2007年、2009 年、2014年、2015年、2019年、2020年等均取得了不错的收益，随着历年收益的不断积累，2021年前后 私募行业曾诞生多只"十倍基"。 例如，知名私募景林资产旗下一只成立于2007年3月的基金，累计回报率就在2021年5月突破了1000%， 成为一只"十倍基"。随后因市场的大幅调整，该产品的净值有所回落，直至今年2月累计单位净值突破 11元，重归"十倍基"之列。 纵观私募江湖，那些闪耀的"十倍基"无不历经时间淬炼，在市场行情推动与机构投研进化的二重奏中谱 写传奇。然而令人唏嘘的是，真正能全程陪伴这些"长跑冠军"的投资者却凤毛麟角。在市场波动中提前 退场者有之，高点追涨被套者亦有之。这场关于时间与耐心的投资修行，既检验着私募机构的真本事， 也考验着每一位市场参与者的智慧与定力。 ● 本报记者 王宇露 私 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3700 points has reignited market enthusiasm, leading to significant performance improvements in private equity funds, with notable products achieving over 1000% cumulative returns, termed as "tenfold funds" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed 3700 points, indicating a strong market recovery [2]. - Private equity funds have seen a resurgence in performance, with many funds reaching new net asset value highs [2]. - A product from Kangmand Capital, established 11 years ago, has achieved a cumulative return rate of 1013.40%, marking it as a "tenfold fund" [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - The emergence of "tenfold funds" is not new; previous instances occurred in 2007, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2019, and 2020, showcasing the cyclical nature of private equity fund performance [3][4]. - Historical performance of Kangmand Capital's product shows significant growth periods, particularly from 2019 to 2021 and since the second half of 2024 [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Kangmand Capital's chairman attributes the recent success to a combination of market cycles and a robust investment strategy focusing on sectors like AI, robotics, and traditional industries such as automotive and consumer electronics [3]. - The firm has developed a comprehensive investment system over 12 years, integrating quantitative and fundamental analysis with a unified risk management framework [3]. Group 4: Challenges for Investors - Despite the success of "tenfold funds," few investors have reaped the benefits due to premature exits or entering at market peaks [6]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term investment perspective, ideally holding for at least three years, and to closely monitor fund managers' performance and strategies [6][7]. Group 5: Characteristics of Successful Funds - Successful "tenfold funds" typically require a combination of favorable market conditions, strong research capabilities, and effective risk management [4][5]. - The ability to maintain low drawdowns while achieving high compound returns over time is crucial for a fund to be classified as a "tenfold fund" [4].

Group 1: Market Milestones - The A-share market reached two significant milestones on August 18: the Shanghai Composite Index hit a nearly 10-year high, and the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Institutional Support - Continuous efforts by regulatory authorities to promote long-term capital inflow and establish rational, value, and long-term investment philosophies have been pivotal for the market's robust performance [1] - The implementation of registration system reforms and strict enforcement of delisting regulations have contributed to a more standardized and transparent market environment [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) handled 739 cases in 2024, imposing fines totaling 15.3 billion yuan, reflecting a "zero tolerance" approach to illegal activities [2] Group 3: Long-term Capital Inflow - Domestic long-term funds, including social security funds, pension funds, and insurance capital, along with foreign capital through channels like the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, have provided stable and continuous funding to the market [2] - As of the end of Q2 this year, the stock investment balance and proportion of life and property insurance companies have continued to rise [2] - Foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, indicating a strong interest in value investment [2] Group 4: Improvement in Company Quality - The overall quality of listed companies has shown a steady improvement, with more firms focusing on core businesses, increasing R&D investments, and enhancing corporate governance [2] - The trend of mergers and acquisitions among listed companies has accelerated, with 118 companies announcing significant asset restructuring as of August 19, indicating a drive to cultivate new profit growth points [3] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - The total cash dividends of A-share listed companies for the 2024 fiscal year reached 2.4 trillion yuan, a 9% increase from 2023, reflecting a growing awareness of shareholder returns [3] - The number of companies consistently paying dividends has been increasing, with over a hundred companies disclosing mid-year dividend plans for 2025 as of August 19 [3] Group 6: Investment Philosophy - The market is gradually maturing, and all parties are encouraged to actively practice the "three investments" philosophy (rational, value, and long-term investment) to ensure stable market growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment in high-quality stocks and warns against the common mistake of selling winning stocks too early, which can lead to missed opportunities for greater returns [2][3][4]. Market Sentiment - Recent market sentiment has improved, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching around 3700 points and daily trading volume increasing by over 50% compared to the low trading phase in early April [1]. Investment Strategy - Investors often choose to cash out once their funds or stocks return to cost price, but for high-quality stocks with a safety margin, holding them long-term is more beneficial than frequent trading [2][4]. - The concept of "pulling out flowers and watering weeds" is highlighted as a common error in long-term investing, where selling reliable stocks simply because they have risen in price is a significant mistake [3][4]. Historical Examples - Legendary fund manager Peter Lynch achieved a 20-fold investment return with an annualized return of 29.2% while managing the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990. He recounts a story where Warren Buffett emphasized that his most profitable stocks were those that others sold prematurely [3][4]. - Lynch's personal experience with Home Depot, where he sold the stock after a 300% increase only to see it rise another 5000%, illustrates the importance of holding onto quality companies over time [3]. Investment Philosophy - Lynch argues that investing in stocks can yield significant returns with a low success rate, as long as investors understand the companies they are investing in [4][5]. - The article suggests that investors should build a portfolio of companies they understand well, rejecting lower-quality companies, and emphasizes the importance of patience in the stock market [5][6]. Fundamental Analysis - The article concludes that successful investing is rooted in understanding the fundamentals of stocks. Investors should maintain a belief in their investments and avoid the destructive mindset of selling during downturns [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is suitable for value investing, where stock prices serve as an external variable to assess potential returns rather than a variable to predict [2][25][26]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investment Strategy - As of August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly ten-year high, closing at 3728.03 points, with the A-share market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [2]. - The current stock prices are not as cheap as they were ten months ago, and some stocks have seen a decline in implied returns. However, the Chinese stock market is not in a bubble state when viewed alongside the Hong Kong market [2][55][56]. - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and a different perspective, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term market fluctuations [8][16][39]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Manager Insights - The fund managed by Jiang Cheng has shown a year-to-date return of 6.03%, with a three-year return of 23.77% and a five-year return of 74.68%, indicating stable performance [3]. - Jiang Cheng maintains a conservative approach, focusing on traditional sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a long-term investment horizon [3][5]. - The investment philosophy includes a significant emphasis on understanding the underlying value of assets and avoiding value traps, dedicating 20% of research efforts to identifying potential pitfalls in existing holdings [20][22]. Group 3: Value Investment Principles - Value investing is defined as an investment behavior aimed at acquiring asset value, with cash returns being the primary measure of value creation [23]. - The market's price volatility can create more opportunities for value investing, as it allows investors to buy undervalued assets [25][26]. - Safety margin is viewed as a conservative attitude, acknowledging the unpredictability of future market conditions and focusing on protecting against adverse scenarios [18][19]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Long-term Outlook - The current market environment presents both pressures and opportunities, with a need for caution at the micro level while maintaining optimism at the macro level [58][59]. - Continuous learning and adaptation to new market dynamics are essential for identifying long-term investment opportunities, especially in emerging sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [40][43][45]. - The investment approach encourages a focus on long-term goals and the ability to tolerate short-term market fluctuations without being overly influenced by them [52][63].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth of the ETF market in China, with total ETF assets surpassing 4.8 trillion yuan, reflecting increased confidence and willingness of institutional and individual investors to enter the market [2] Group 1: Long-term Investment Strategy - The "long money, long investment" strategy aligns with the "three investment" philosophy, emphasizing the need for stability in the market and promoting a virtuous cycle between the capital market and the real economy [4] - Regulatory support through policies like the "National Nine Articles" and the "High-Quality Development Action Plan for Index Investment" aims to guide long-term capital into the market [4][5] - Investor education initiatives have been crucial in promoting long-term investment concepts, with significant outreach efforts reaching millions of clients [4] Group 2: ETF Market Dynamics - Broad-based ETFs tracking major indices like the CSI 300 and the STAR Market have become primary tools for long-term capital allocation, showing resilience during market adjustments [6] - The share of institutional investment in broad-based ETFs has increased significantly, indicating a shift towards long-term strategies [6] - The rise of thematic and sector-specific ETFs is driving capital towards strategic emerging industries, aligning with national priorities [7] Group 3: Bond ETFs and Market Stability - Bond ETFs have seen explosive growth, exceeding 500 billion yuan, serving as a stabilizing force in investor portfolios amid declining interest rates [8] - The demand for bond ETFs reflects strong long-term capital allocation needs among investors [8] Group 4: Institutional Investor Influence - Institutional investors have become a cornerstone of the ETF ecosystem, with their holdings in equity ETFs exceeding 40% by the end of 2024 [10] - The penetration rates of institutional investors in stock and bond ETFs have reached 62.14% and 84.9%, respectively, indicating a robust shift towards long-term investment [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The deepening of personal pension systems and expansion of the third pillar of pensions will continue to broaden the supply of long-term capital [13] - ETFs are expected to play a crucial role in aligning capital with national innovation strategies, particularly in hard technology sectors [13] - The article envisions a resilient and vibrant capital market driven by patient capital flowing into strategic areas like hard technology and green initiatives [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth of the ETF market, which has surpassed 4.8 trillion yuan, reflecting increased confidence and willingness of institutional and individual investors to enter the market [1][2][7] - The "long money long investment" strategy is gaining traction, aligning with the "three investment" philosophy, which emphasizes stable market conditions and a positive cycle between capital markets and the real economy [2][9] - Regulatory support through policies such as the "National Nine Articles" and the "High-Quality Development Action Plan for Index Investment" is facilitating the entry of long-term capital into the market [2][3] Group 2 - Broad-based ETFs tracking major indices like the CSI 300 and the STAR Market are becoming primary tools for long-term capital allocation, demonstrating resilience during market adjustments [3][4] - The rise of thematic and sector-specific ETFs is directing funds towards strategic emerging industries, such as hard technology and new energy, thereby enhancing the development of new productive forces [4][5] - Bond ETFs have seen explosive growth, exceeding 500 billion yuan, serving as a stabilizing force in investors' asset allocation amidst a declining interest rate environment [5][6] Group 3 - Institutional investors are increasingly becoming the backbone of the ETF ecosystem, with their holdings in stock ETFs surpassing 40% by the end of 2024, indicating a shift towards long-term investment strategies [7][8] - The low-cost nature of ETFs reduces friction in long-term investments, while their transparency enhances investors' understanding of value logic, effectively connecting long-term capital with quality assets [8][10] - The future of the ETF market is expected to expand with the deepening of personal pension systems and the integration of capital with technological innovation, promoting sustainable growth in strategic sectors [9][10]

Group 1: Long-term Investment Perspective - The concept of long-term investment is emphasized by Swiss private partnership firm Pictet, which has a history dating back to 1805 and focuses solely on asset and wealth management [1] - Alexandre Tavazzi, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet, defines a long-term investment horizon as 10 years, with his team analyzing economic conditions and asset class returns over this period [1] Group 2: Global Economic Shifts - The global economy is experiencing "tectonic shifts," with structural impacts being more significant than cyclical ones [5][6] - The U.S. has historically provided three core supports to the global economy: economic stability, security guarantees, and attractive returns on safe assets, but these supports are now being questioned [6][7] Group 3: U.S. Debt and Investment Outlook - The attractiveness of U.S. long-term government bonds is declining, with the current term premium for 10-year bonds being low at 50 to 70 basis points, insufficient to compensate for long-term risks [8] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is approximately 7%, with half of this deficit attributed to interest payments, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [8] Group 4: European Market Potential - There is a positive outlook for the European market, particularly with Germany's shift in debt policy, allowing for increased investment in infrastructure and defense [9] - The projected economic growth rates for the next decade indicate that Europe may experience faster growth compared to the U.S., making European assets more attractive [10] Group 5: Future Economic Growth Predictions - Economic growth predictions for the next decade show the U.S. at 1.8% and the Eurozone at 1.5%, with China expected to grow at 3.5% and India being the fastest-growing economy [10] - Four key factors—deglobalization, decarbonization, demographics, and dominance of fiscal policy—are expected to shape the economic landscape over the next ten years [10]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining objectivity and discipline in investment strategies during periods of market volatility, highlighting that emotional reactions can lead to poor decision-making [1] - Historical data shows that stock markets experience significant fluctuations, with a 20% drop occurring approximately every four years, and a 10% drop almost annually, which investors often overlook [3][4] - Long-term investments in stocks have a higher probability of outpacing inflation compared to cash, with success rates increasing significantly with longer holding periods [4] Market Performance - Over the past five years, global stock markets have doubled in value, while cash holdings have only returned 14%, illustrating the superior performance of equities [2] - The MSCI World Index data indicates that in the 53 years leading up to 2025, 30 years recorded drops of over 10%, and 13 years saw declines of 20% or more [3] Investment Strategy - The article discusses a "rotation strategy" based on the VIX index, which suggests that selling stocks during high volatility (VIX above 33) leads to lower returns compared to a long-term holding strategy [5] - Historical analysis indicates that those who react impulsively to market risks often miss out on potential returns, reinforcing the need for a disciplined investment approach [5]