央视镜头前，前央行副行长朱敏"捅破"房价真相：3大支撑全反转，未来5年楼市要变天？ 央视《面对面》栏目里，前央行副行长朱敏一句话让现场气氛瞬间凝固："房价很难再涨起来了"。面对主持人"会不会影响信心"的担忧，他更直白回 怼："想让房价再像90年代涨100倍？你和子孙都没这信心"。 为何这位前央行高官敢在国家级平台"说真话"？答案藏在支撑房价上涨的三大根基里，如今每一个都在发生根本性转变。 2. 土地财政"断链"：8.7万亿到4.87万亿，收入腰斩 过去20年，地方政府靠"卖地"赚钱的模式走不通了。2021年全国土地出让金还高达8.7万亿，2024年就暴跌到4.87万亿，近乎腰斩。 问题出在循环断裂：以前是地方卖地、开发商拿地、购房者贷款买房、银行放贷，地方、开发商、银行都能赚；现在购房需求没了，房子卖不动，开发商不 敢拿地，整个链条直接"停摆"。 3. 观念变了：年轻人不再愿用三代人积蓄换一套房 过去"有房才有家"的想法，正在被年轻人抛弃。北京一个普通家庭买套房要500万，首付150万得全家凑，贷款350万每月要还2万——这意味着未来30年，全 家除了基本开支，不敢换工作、不敢创业、甚至不敢生病，谁愿意过这样 ...

东亚是全球的生育率洼地，韩国更是洼地中的洼地。 一般来讲，总和生育率低于1.5，就意味着人口将进入"低生育率陷阱"，一旦陷进去就很难再脱身。 而韩国生育率自2015年起自由落体，到2023年低至0.72。这么看来，韩国踏入的这个陷阱可谓深不见底。 近年来东亚三国生育率都已低于1.5▼ 编者荐语： 严格来说，一个国家和一个城市相比并不合理，不过低生育率的原因有一些相通之处，不妨看看韩国是 如何应对的，有哪些利弊。 以下文章来源于地球知识局 ，作者地球知识局 地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计，全球视野新三观。 合作请联系：xiaobaibai_9999（注明品牌和需求） 然而 2023年以后，韩国生育率却来了一波触底反弹。 2024年总和生育率回弹至0.75，2025年第一季度更是 回到0.82。2024年新生儿数达到23.83万人，比2023年增长3.6%。 0.03的增长很多吗？看上去不多，但至少有希望。而同样踏入低生育率陷阱的，还有我们。 2023年，上海的户籍人口总和生育率已经跌至惊人的0.6，2024年也只回弹至0.72，还是低于韩国。 上海这种大城市的生育率更是"遥遥落后"▼ 那么，韩国是怎么实现生育 ...

以下文章来源于地球知识局 ，作者地球知识局 地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计，全球视野新三观。 合作请联系：xiaobaibai_9999（注明品牌和需求） 本文来自微信公众号： 地球知识局 ，作者：一猴儿，制图：桐，编辑：Alicia，原文标题：《大涨0.03，韩国生育率超过上海了》，头图来自：AI生 成 东亚是全球的生育率洼地，韩国更是洼地中的洼地。 一般来讲，总和生育率低于1.5，就意味着人口将进入"低生育率陷阱"，一旦陷进去就很难再脱身。 而韩国生育率自2015年起自由落体，到2023年低至0.72。这么看来，韩国踏入的这个陷阱可谓深不见底。 近年来东亚三国生育率都已低于1.5▼ GEO-KNOWLEDGE GROUP 2023 型变化 12 0.03的增长很多吗？看上去不多，但至少有希望。而同样踏入低生育率陷阱的，还有我们。 2023年，上海的户籍人口总和生育率已经跌至惊人的0.6，2024年也只回弹至0.72，还是低于韩国。 上海这种大城市的生育率更是"遥遥落后"▼ 那么，韩国是怎么实现生育率反弹的呢？ 补贴生育大撒币 刺激生育最传统的方法就是大规模的财政支持——撒币。 家庭是生育的基石，鼓励结婚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in birth rates in Tianmen, Hubei, which has implemented extensive financial incentives to encourage childbirth, contrasting it with the declining birth rates in Heilongjiang province, which has been struggling with low fertility rates for years [1][6][9]. Group 1: Tianmen's Birth Rate Increase - Tianmen's birth rate increased by 17% in 2024, marking the first rise in eight years, with a total of 7,217 newborns, compared to 6,168 in 2023 [6][9]. - The local government has invested over 300 million yuan in three years to encourage childbirth, expecting to add more than 3,000 births [3][6]. - Tianmen's financial incentives for families include up to 287,000 yuan for second children and 355,000 yuan for third children, covering various subsidies and rewards [3][4]. Group 2: Heilongjiang's Declining Birth Rate - Heilongjiang has the lowest birth rate in China, with a decline from 6.22‰ in 2017 to 2.92‰ in 2023, and a natural population growth rate of -6.92‰ [7][9]. - The province has seen a population decrease of 8.04 million over 14 years, with a total population of 30.29 million in 2024 [9][10]. - Despite attempts to implement similar financial incentives, such as monthly subsidies for families, the results have been minimal, with only slight increases in birth rates [10][11]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Experts caution that the increase in Tianmen's birth rate may be a short-term effect influenced by cultural factors and post-pandemic trends, rather than a sustainable improvement in fertility [13][14]. - The replicability of Tianmen's model in other regions is questioned, as local conditions, cultural contexts, and financial capabilities vary significantly [13][14]. - Historical insights suggest that population trends are influenced more by social structures than by financial incentives alone, indicating that broader economic reforms may be necessary for lasting change [14].

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the significant decline in birth rates in China, with 2023's newborn population at approximately 902 million, down from 956 million in 2022, indicating a drop of over 50 million [3] - The number of college graduates in 2024 is projected to be 11.79 million, an increase of 210,000 from the previous year, while the newborn population continues to decrease, creating a disparity between the supply of graduates and the declining number of children [3][4] - The marriage registration numbers have halved from 1.346 million in 2013 to 683 million in 2023, indicating a direct impact of declining birth rates on marriage and housing demand, particularly for school district properties [4] Group 2 - The trend of declining birth rates is leading to a shrinking educational demand, which could result in a future shortage of students in schools, affecting the education sector's resource allocation [3][4] - The rapid decline in birth rates in China is compared to other countries like South Korea, which has a total fertility rate of 0.72 in 2023, suggesting that China's larger population base may face more severe disruptions in various industries linked to infant numbers, such as baby products and household goods [6][8] - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 reached 21.3% in 2023, indicating that despite a large population, the market's capacity to absorb labor is insufficient, raising concerns about future labor supply and demand dynamics [8]

Group 1 - The concept of "long-term investment" is emphasized by the Swiss bank Pictet, which has a history of 220 years and focuses solely on asset and wealth management [1] - Alexandre Tavazzi, the head of macro research at Pictet, defines a long-term investment horizon as 10 years, guiding his team's annual economic outlook [1] Group 2 - The global economic landscape is undergoing "tectonic shifts," with structural impacts being more significant than cyclical ones [4][5] - The U.S. has historically provided three core supports to the global economy: economic stability, security guarantees, and attractive investment returns, but these are now being questioned [5][6] Group 3 - The attractiveness of U.S. long-term government bonds is declining, with a current yield curve that does not adequately compensate for risks, leading to a strategy of shortening duration [7] - Europe is seen as having a more optimistic outlook, particularly with Germany's shift in debt policy and increased investment in infrastructure and defense [8] Group 4 - Future economic growth predictions indicate a U.S. growth rate of 1.8% and a Eurozone growth rate of 1.5%, with Europe becoming more attractive for investment [9] - Key factors shaping the next decade include deglobalization, decarbonization, demographic changes, and dominance of fiscal policy, with inflation expected to remain elevated [9]

Group 1 - The concept of "long-term investment" has gained significant attention in recent years, with policies being developed to support it from top-level design to operational details [1] - Swiss private partnership firm, Pictet, has a long-standing commitment to long-term investment, tracing its history back to 1805, and has evolved into Switzerland's second-largest international financial institution [1] - Alexandre Tavazzi, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet, defines long-term investment as a 10-year horizon, with his team analyzing economic conditions and asset class returns over this period [1] Group 2 - The global economic landscape is undergoing "tectonic shifts," with structural impacts being more critical than cyclical ones in the next decade [4][5] - Negative impacts from U.S. policies include tariffs that effectively tax consumers and a government efficiency initiative that has not yielded expected savings [3] - Positive aspects include regulatory relaxations in the financial sector, allowing banks to operate with lower capital ratios, potentially increasing lending [3] Group 3 - The U.S. economy's stability, security guarantees, and high-return assets are being questioned, with increasing policy uncertainty since the Trump administration [6] - The attractiveness of U.S. assets is declining, particularly as competition from emerging sectors in China grows [7] - The long-term U.S. Treasury yield is viewed negatively due to insufficient compensation for risks, leading to a strategy of shortening duration in bond investments [8] Group 4 - Europe is experiencing significant changes, with Germany planning to abolish its debt brake and invest heavily in military and infrastructure, potentially leading to faster growth in the next decade [9] - The forecast for economic growth over the next decade predicts a U.S. growth rate of 1.8% and a Eurozone growth rate of 1.5%, narrowing the gap between the two regions [10] - Key factors shaping the future include deglobalization, decarbonization, demographic changes, and dominance of fiscal policy, with inflation expected to remain elevated [10]

Group 1: Long-term Investment Perspective - The concept of long-term investment is emphasized by Swiss private partnership firm Pictet, which has a history dating back to 1805 and focuses solely on asset and wealth management [1] - Alexandre Tavazzi, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet, defines a long-term investment horizon as 10 years, with his team analyzing economic conditions and asset class returns over this period [1] Group 2: Global Economic Shifts - The global economy is experiencing "tectonic shifts," with structural impacts being more significant than cyclical ones [5][6] - The U.S. has historically provided three core supports to the global economy: economic stability, security guarantees, and attractive returns on safe assets, but these supports are now being questioned [6][7] Group 3: U.S. Debt and Investment Outlook - The attractiveness of U.S. long-term government bonds is declining, with the current term premium for 10-year bonds being low at 50 to 70 basis points, insufficient to compensate for long-term risks [8] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is approximately 7%, with half of this deficit attributed to interest payments, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [8] Group 4: European Market Potential - There is a positive outlook for the European market, particularly with Germany's shift in debt policy, allowing for increased investment in infrastructure and defense [9] - The projected economic growth rates for the next decade indicate that Europe may experience faster growth compared to the U.S., making European assets more attractive [10] Group 5: Future Economic Growth Predictions - Economic growth predictions for the next decade show the U.S. at 1.8% and the Eurozone at 1.5%, with China expected to grow at 3.5% and India being the fastest-growing economy [10] - Four key factors—deglobalization, decarbonization, demographics, and dominance of fiscal policy—are expected to shape the economic landscape over the next ten years [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of barbershops in China, attributing it to demographic changes rather than competition from e-commerce or consumer traps [3][5][22]. Demographic Changes - The aging population in China is leading to a decrease in the frequency of haircuts, as older individuals tend to require fewer haircuts [6][9][15]. - The median age in China has been rising, with the average age reaching 38.8 years in 2020, and projections indicate that by the end of 2024, over 22% of the population will be aged 60 and above [11][13]. Industry Dynamics - Despite the declining demand for haircuts, the number of barbershops continues to increase, with 1.2913 million related enterprises registered nationwide [17]. - The influx of new barbershops has led to intense competition, resulting in unethical practices such as aggressive upselling and some shops closing down [20][22]. Consumer Behavior - The article highlights that while the demand for haircuts is decreasing due to demographic factors, the overall interest in personal grooming remains strong, suggesting that there is still potential in the industry if businesses focus on value for money [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the competition among provinces in China is closely tied to population dynamics, with GDP growth rates reflecting the resilience of certain provinces in the face of national trends [3][5]. Economic Growth and Population Dynamics - In the first quarter, 15 out of 31 provinces reported GDP growth rates that met or exceeded the national average of 5.4%, indicating strong economic resilience [3]. - Population structure is a critical factor influencing long-term economic competitiveness, alongside industrial upgrades and investment [5]. Population Growth Trends - In a context of declining national population, five provinces (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, and Shaanxi) have achieved positive population growth, with birth rates exceeding 6‰ [6]. - Guangdong has the highest birth rate at 8.89‰, maintaining its status as the leading province for births for seven consecutive years [6][8]. Labor Force and Economic Activity - The provinces with the highest labor force participation rates include Guangdong, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia, with Guangdong's labor population at 66.38%, surpassing the national average [20]. - The influx of young migrants into Guangdong contributes to its robust labor market, with significant employment opportunities in high-end manufacturing and modern services [20][10]. Aging Population Challenges - By 2024, 22% of China's population is aged 60 and above, with provinces like Liaoning facing severe aging issues, where 31.17% of the population is elderly [26][27]. - The aging population is exacerbated by low birth rates and out-migration of younger individuals seeking better opportunities in more developed regions [28][31]. Regional Variations in Birth Rates - Provinces with higher birth rates tend to have a larger proportion of children aged 0-15, indicating potential for future labor market vitality [15][17]. - The article notes a positive correlation between birth rates and the proportion of young populations across provinces [16]. Policy Responses to Demographic Challenges - Jiangsu province has recognized the need to attract and retain population, implementing measures to ease residency restrictions and promote childbirth [23][24]. - Various provinces are adopting policies to encourage higher birth rates, including financial incentives and improved maternity benefits [29].