Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold maintains a volatile trend under the environment of a strong US dollar and high interest rates, but long - term support is determined by the de - dollarization process, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of monetary policy shifts. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on 14 countries from August 1 could disrupt the global supply chain, driving safe - haven funds into gold ETFs. Fed officials Waller and Daly signaled dovishness, mentioning the possibility of rate cuts this year, attracting long - term allocation buying. Downward pressure on gold prices comes from the currency and interest - rate environment, with the rising US dollar index increasing the cost of holding gold and high US government fiscal deficits pushing up long - term US Treasury yields. If the US June CPI data released tonight exceeds 3.0%, it may strengthen the hawkish stance and push up Treasury yields, further suppressing gold prices; data below 2.5% could boost rate - cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's Beige Book on July 17 and the risk of trade conflict escalation after the August 1 tariff implementation [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 780.4 yuan/gram, down 1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9225 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 198,270 lots, up 7,187 lots; those of Shanghai silver are 450,115 lots, up 2,020 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 139,691 lots, up 5,899 lots; those of Shanghai silver are 146,976 lots, down 567 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,872 kilograms, up 15 kilograms; that of silver is 1,222,959 kilograms, down 1,023 kilograms [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.8 yuan/gram, up 0.6 yuan; the spot price of silver is 9,146 yuan/kilogram, down 22 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 5.6 yuan/gram, up 1.6 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 79 yuan/kilogram, down 40 yuan [2] Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 947.64 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 14,966.24 tons, up 207.72 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; those of silver are 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.19%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 13.65%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.81%, up 2.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.8%, up 2.27% [2] Industry News - Trump urged Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, threatening 100% secondary tariffs and said the US would consult with other countries on tariffs and is open to trade negotiations with Europe. He also called for Fed Chairman Powell to resign, and White House economic advisor Hassett said Trump has the right to fire Powell. Cleveland Fed President Harker hopes to see further inflation decline before supporting rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting. The EU's Šefčovič said the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth 72 billion euros (about 84 billion US dollars) if the US - EU trade talks fail. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 60.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3.2% [2]

Group 1 - The European ministers are optimistic about reaching a trade agreement with the Trump administration before the August 1 deadline, aiming to maintain the $1.7 trillion bilateral trade relationship [2] - Trump's fluctuating sentiments towards the EU, sometimes friendly and other times accusatory, contribute to the ongoing threat of a 30% tariff [2] - The EU trade chief indicated that continuing trade in the traditional transatlantic manner would be nearly impossible under such tariffs, effectively prohibiting trade [2] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that an average tariff rate of 35% on EU goods, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [3] - The potential economic loss for Germany due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% could exceed €200 billion by 2028, impacting Chancellor Merz's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending [3] - The long-term implications of high tariffs raise concerns about how Europe will compensate for lost economic activity to fund essential services and military restructuring [3] Group 3 - The EU has made progress in establishing preliminary agreements with new trade partners, but faces challenges in finalizing these agreements [4] - Analysts suggest that the confrontation with Trump may provide the EU with an opportunity to push through long-delayed single market reforms and rebalance its economy away from heavy reliance on exports [4] Group 4 - The IMF estimates that internal barriers to the free movement of goods within the EU equate to tariffs of 44% on goods and 110% on services [5] - Proposed reforms to create a more open cross-border capital market have seen little progress over the past decade [5] - The EU remains open to negotiations while preparing retaliatory measures in case talks break down, with uncertainty potentially influencing Trump's decision-making [5]

Core Viewpoint - The earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q2 is expected to slow significantly, with a projected increase of only 5%, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2023, down from 13% in Q1 [1][2][4]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts have downgraded earnings expectations due to tariff policies and weaker economic data, with a 4% reduction in Q2 forecasts, exceeding the historical average of 3% [4]. - Among the 11 sectors, 6 are expected to see year-over-year growth, led by communication services and information technology, while 5 sectors, including energy, are projected to decline [2][6]. Early Reporting Performance - Early reporting companies have shown strong performance, with 71% exceeding EPS expectations and 81% surpassing sales expectations among the 21 S&P 500 companies that have reported [4][5]. - The current forecast suggests a slight EPS beat of 2%, reaching $64, which represents a 6% year-over-year increase [4]. Sector Analysis - Technology and communication services are expected to drive earnings growth, with a combined growth rate of 20%. Excluding these sectors, S&P 500 earnings growth is projected to be negative 3% [6]. - The growth range for the overall market is expected to be narrow, with negative growth anticipated when excluding technology and communication services [5]. Guidance Trends - Recent trends indicate an improvement in earnings guidance, with the three-month guidance ratio returning to the average level of 0.8 [9]. - Approximately 30% of S&P 500 companies provided annual EPS guidance, a significant increase from 10% during the pandemic [11]. Tariff Impact - Tariff uncertainties remain a key volatility factor, with estimates suggesting a potential 5% direct impact on S&P 500 revenues if no mitigation measures are taken [11]. - Analysts are divided on the ability of companies to pass on tariff costs, with 25% expecting price increases to cover most tariff hikes, while 21% believe companies will struggle to raise prices [11]. Key Themes for Investors - Investors are advised to focus on four key themes: capital expenditure guidance, layoffs, foreign exchange impacts, and the influence of the "Big Beautiful Bill" [12][22]. - The proportion of CEOs planning to increase capital expenditures has dropped to 28%, the lowest level since the pandemic began [12]. Foreign Exchange and Economic Indicators - A 10% depreciation of the dollar is estimated to boost S&P 500 EPS by 3%, with foreign exchange providing a 60-70 basis point benefit in Q2 [18]. - The performance of large tech companies remains strong, with significant capital expenditure growth expected to continue [15][17].

瑞典财政部长：来自美国的10%关税是我们能预期的最低水平。 ...

Group 1: Inflation Dynamics - The report highlights a critical turning point in U.S. inflation dynamics, with actual tariffs rising from 2.3% at the beginning of the year to approximately 13%, potentially approaching 20% for the year if industry-specific tariffs are implemented [1] - Despite the overall CPI remaining low at 2.4% in May, economists warn that the annualized inflation rate could surge to 5% in the second half of the year, closely linked to the delayed market response to tariff policies and oil prices [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Corporate Strategies - The current inflation is being dulled by the suppression of oil prices, with Brent crude prices declining year-on-year, but this favorable impact is diminishing as oil prices have been rising since April [1] - Companies initially chose to internalize tariff costs due to concerns over consumer acceptance of price increases and the need to maintain market share, but some have begun to pass on costs, particularly in the automotive and luxury goods sectors [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Currency Trends - The report predicts a short-term rebound in the dollar, but a continued weak trend in the medium term, which historically correlates with rising import inflation [1] - A sustained depreciation of the dollar could lead to increased prices for imported goods, further elevating the CPI and creating a "tariff-exchange rate-inflation" transmission loop [1] Group 4: Industry Strategies - Morgan Stanley holds a cautious view on the energy sector while expressing optimism for mining companies, reiterating a "double upgrade" rating for the mining sector due to weak dollar conditions and low global metal inventories benefiting mining profitability [2] - The industrial sector shows differentiation, with most companies managing to offset tariff costs through price increases, but some may face profit pressure due to limitations on price adjustments [2] Group 5: Corporate Responses - Corporate strategies are characterized by three phases: initially focusing on internal cost absorption, then attempting price adjustments, and finally shifting towards supply chain optimization [3] - Examples include H&M adjusting pricing strategies, Inditex leveraging global procurement to mitigate risks, and ArcelorMittal quantifying tariff costs (approximately $800 million/year, accounting for 10% of EBITDA) while benefiting from rising U.S. steel prices [3] Group 6: Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The core strategy emphasizes that inflation rebound is driven by a combination of factors including oil prices, corporate behavior, and currency fluctuations [4] - The industry allocation recommendations reflect a preference for resource assets while cautioning about short-term pain in the industrial sector, highlighting the need for investors to monitor corporate cost transfer capabilities and supply chain resilience to seize structural opportunities amid rising inflation [4]

经济学家：关税对通胀的影响没那么快全部显现 需关注几类商品价格是否上涨 金十数据7月15日讯，前美国财政部金融经济学家Kevin Jacques表示，到目前为止，美国企业的囤货行 为使关税对通胀的影响部分被吸收。但有些商品难以囤积，比如食品。需密切关注进口水果和蔬菜的成 本是否在悄悄上涨。彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员Jed Kolko将更密切地关注核心商品的价格，比 如汽车、电脑、洗碗机和服装等商品，这可能是关税对价格影响表现最强烈的地方。 瑞银经济学家 Alan Detmeister表示，可能在未来一个月或者几个月内都看不到通胀显著上涨。如果到9月CPI数据公 布时（即10月份）还没有看到价格上涨，那将会是一个相当大的意外。但是，若6月CPI数据确实回 升，市场也应该对此持保留态度，不应过分关注任何宏观经济数据中单月的波动。 ...

金融市场今晚迎来本周的重中之重——美国6月CPI报告，特朗普不断变化的关税政策一直在挑动市场的神经，对于通胀的担忧也让市场对于美联储降息的 信心不时动摇，所以今晚的报告有助于设定对美联储下一步行动的预期。市场预期CPI年率将加速至2.7%（前值2.4%）；核心CPI预计为3%（前值2.8%）。 尽管最近几个月的经济数据显示，总体通胀仍然相当温和，但是最新的数据可以看到加快。经济学家警告，特朗普对大多数进入美国的商品征收高额关税的 全面贸易政策将通过提高价格给消费者带来沉重打击。高盛经济学家预计，最终约70%的关税直接成本将通过价格上涨转嫁给消费者。 美国是一个服务业占比较大的经济体，尤其是在夏季，人们的支出更多地用于旅游、娱乐和休闲。然而，一些商品价格已经上涨，企业警告称未来还会进一 步上涨，尤其是在冬季由于季节性消费需求上涨的时候。富国银行预计，今年晚些时候整体CPI可能达到2.9%的峰值（部分原因是服务业进一步的通货紧缩 效应）。 可以肯定的是，美联储内部对于何时降低借贷成本的分歧日益加大，官员们对于今年剩余时间内应该降息多少次意见不一。美联储去年降息1个百分点，但 自去年12月以来一直暂停降息，委员会中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant depreciation of the Japanese yen against major currencies, particularly the US dollar, due to new tariffs imposed by the US government and concerns over Japan's economic slowdown [1][3][5] - The yen's depreciation against the Swiss franc reached a historical low, while it also fell to a one-year low against the euro, indicating widespread selling pressure on the yen [1][3] - The new tariff rate announced by Trump, which is set to take effect on August 1, is expected to have a severe impact on Japan's economy, with predictions of a GDP decline of up to 1% [5][6] Group 2 - The market sentiment is increasingly pessimistic regarding Japan's economic prospects, with expectations that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates in the near term due to ongoing economic concerns [5][6] - Speculative positions in the yen have decreased significantly, indicating a reduction in bullish sentiment towards the currency [5][6] - The upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data release on July 15 is anticipated to influence market perceptions of inflation and interest rate expectations, potentially leading to further yen depreciation [6][8] Group 3 - Japanese companies are forecasting an average exchange rate of 143 yen per dollar for the fiscal year 2025, suggesting a potential appreciation of the yen if current trends continue [7] - However, the depreciation of the yen could lead to increased import prices, negatively impacting consumer spending and overall economic conditions in Japan [8]

Group 1 - The Chinese government is formulating measures to address the issue of "involution" in certain industries and companies, aiming to enhance market order and competition [1] - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on legal governance of low-price disorderly competition and encouraging companies to improve product quality [1] - These policies are expected to improve market order, enhance supply-demand relationships, promote reasonable price recovery, and ultimately support corporate profit improvement and economic structural adjustment [1] Group 2 - The government is increasing fiscal policy support, including promoting consumption through trade-in programs and supporting industrial equipment upgrades [2] - There is a push for high-level opening up to expand trade diversification and reduce reliance on single markets [2] - The implementation of these measures is anticipated to have a significant positive impact on consumption, investment stability, and foreign trade, contributing to overall economic stability [2]

Core Insights - Most economists expect a significant jump in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that tariffs may contribute approximately 0.08 percentage points to the core CPI reading for June [1] - Specific categories potentially affected by tariffs include furniture, entertainment products, education-related items, communication devices, and personal care products [1]