Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release non-farm employment data for October and November, with the report expected to influence interest rate trends and potentially cause fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate [1] - The report will include data from two months, with October's figures primarily based on business surveys, and November's expected to show an increase of approximately 40,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.4%, with a slight increase to 4.5% expected for November [2] Employment Data Expectations - Analysts predict a rebound in employment numbers for November, while October's data may show a decline, particularly influenced by government sector employment [2] - Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month in November, following a year-over-year increase of 3.8% in September [2] Market Reactions - Recent economic indicators show an increase in initial jobless claims and limited improvement in the services sector, with unexpected declines in private sector employment [2] - The upcoming non-farm data is crucial for market expectations regarding future interest rate adjustments, with potential implications for the dollar's strength against the euro [2][4] Technical Analysis - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently consolidating near recent highs, with technical indicators suggesting potential upward movement [5] - If the exchange rate continues to rise, it may test levels of 1.1800 and 1.1850, with further resistance around 1.1919 [5] - In case of a pullback, initial support may be found around 1.1644, with further attention on the 1.1610 area [5]

Source: Nomura Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Nomura A divided Fed Policy Watch Global Markets Research Economics - North America December FOMC Recap Fig. 2: The FOMC announced reserve management purchases would begin in December, with the NY Fed indicating an initial pace of $40bn per month Nomura's monetary policy outlook | Tool | Key assumptions | | --- | --- | | Policy rate | | | 2026 | Two 25bp cuts in June and September, EOP | | 3.125% | | | Terminal | 3.00 - 3.25% | | Balance sheet policy | | | | Reserve-ma ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,371.50 per troy ounce Thursday, down 0.1% from Wednesday’s closing price of $4,373.90. This is the first time gold has opened above $4,370, but the price dipped lower in early trading. Contributing to gold’s strength are growing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela and economic uncertainty partly stemming from delayed and missing government reports. President Trump has ordered a blockade of Venezuela’s oil tankers and moved troops and warships to the region. Oil is a ...

A quarterly survey of major Japanese manufacturers released Monday shows business sentiment improving to its best level in four years, even after President Trump raised tariffs on goods from the U.S. ally to a baseline level of 15%. The Bank of Japan is bound to take the results of its quarterly “tankan” survey into account during a policy meeting this week, when it is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate. Analysts said the stronger results may sway the BOJ toward pressing ahead with a 0.25 perce ...

12月15日，经济学家预测，欧洲央行的下一步利率行动将是加息，这与投资者和具有影响力的执行委员 会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔的观点一致，因为通胀率正稳定在2%左右。一项调查中，超过60%的受访者 表示，官员们更有可能上调而非降低借贷成本——这是一个显著的变化，因为在10月份，只有三分之一 的受访者持这种看法。然而，他们并不认为这种情况会很快发生：预计存款利率将在12月18日及未来两 年内维持在2%不变。在通胀趋稳且欧元区经济经受住全球贸易紧张局势和地缘政治动荡的考验（表现 好于预期）之后，分析师们正在修正他们的预测。施纳贝尔在一次采访中列举了这种韧性——以及政府 大量支出所助力的更光明前景——作为她对市场押注下次利率行动是加息感到"相当安心"的理由之一。 一项指标指向首次加息可能发生在2027年下半年。 另外，英国10月GDP意外收缩0.1%，加之通胀预期从两年高位回落，为英国央行下周重启降息周期提 供有力支撑。疲弱的增长数据及缓和的价格压力正推动市场将降息概率推升至90%。 英国国家统计局 周五公布的数据显示，10月GDP环比下滑0.1%，低于路透调查经济学家预期的0.1%增长。这是英国经 济过去七个月中实现增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The long - term driving logic for copper still exists, and the price decline is limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 94,080 with a daily increase of 2.03%, and the night - session closing price was 91,550 with a decline of 2.69%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,553 with a decline of 2.37%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai copper index and LME copper 3M electronic disk both increased compared to the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 1,102 to 32,563, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 50 to 165,900. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 39.78% with a decline of 0.40% [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper increased by 500 to 82,900. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 20, a decrease of 25 compared to the previous day. The near - month contract - to - consecutive - first - contract spread was - 60, a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The People's Bank of China will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Trump prefers to let Warsh or Hassett serve as the Fed chair and hopes the interest rate will be 1% or lower in a year [1] - **Industry News**: China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November were 252.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 2.7614 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The US is negotiating with Central African countries to provide over $1 billion for two key mineral and railway projects. Chile's copper export value in November was $4.282 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.57%. In October, the copper production of Chile's state - owned miner Codelco decreased by 14.3% year - on - year to 111,000 tons. The mining investment in Chile from this year to 2034 is expected to reach $104.549 billion, higher than the previous forecast [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Perspective on Inbound Consumption - Inbound consumption has been growing rapidly, with inbound tourists reaching 131.9 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%, and total spending of $94.2 billion, up 77.8% [1] - The proportion of inbound consumption to GDP in China is approximately 0.5%, compared to 1% to 3% in major countries, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the inbound consumption environment, as highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which aims to cultivate international consumption centers and improve the convenience of inbound tourism [2] Group 2: Advantages and Challenges of Inbound Consumption - China possesses rich natural and historical resources, with 60 UNESCO World Heritage sites, and a robust manufacturing sector that offers diverse products at competitive prices [2] - The supply capacity of tourism infrastructure is currently insufficient, which may constrain the overall experience for inbound tourists [3] - The government is working on optimizing tourism public service systems to match the high-quality development of the tourism industry [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Financial Environment - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate, impacting global markets, with tech stocks experiencing volatility while cyclical and financial sectors show gains [4] - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with a notable increase in the computing power chain, while the overall trading volume has decreased [9] - The liquidity in the market remains loose, with overnight funding rates hitting new lows, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [22][23] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, aiming to stabilize investment growth and optimize the use of special bonds [25][26] - The government is focusing on enhancing financial support for the real economy, with an emphasis on maintaining low financing costs and improving the efficiency of monetary policy tools [22][23] - The upcoming policies are expected to address structural issues in the economy, including the optimization of consumption policies and the resolution of local government debt risks [28][36]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 0.25% on December 10, marking the third rate cut of the year, which may provide relief to consumers facing high borrowing costs [2][7] - The implications of the Fed's decision are particularly significant for retirees relying on Social Security, as it may affect their income and borrowing costs [2][6] Group 1: Impact on Savings and Investments - With the Fed's rate cut, yields on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs) are expected to decline, which could affect retirees' income from these sources [4][7] - Retirees are advised to maintain cash reserves for living expenses, but lower interest rates may reduce the returns on these "safe" investments [3][4] Group 2: Borrowing Costs and Consumer Debt - The average credit card balance for baby boomers is reported to be $6,795, which is comparable to millennials' average balance of $6,961, indicating that retirees do engage in borrowing [5][6] - As interest rates fall, consumer debt is likely to become less expensive, benefiting Social Security beneficiaries with credit card balances and potentially allowing them to refinance existing loans [6][7] Group 3: Social Security and Cost-of-Living Adjustments - The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security in 2026 is set at 2.8%, but lower interest rates may positively influence future COLAs if inflation rises [7][8] - The purpose of Social Security COLAs is to protect beneficiaries' purchasing power against inflation, which remains a critical consideration for retirees [8]

下一任美联储主席是谁？特朗普表态了，可能是沃什、哈塞特二选一。 12月13日，特朗普表示，他更倾向选择前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）或国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）来领导美联储。 特朗普在椭圆形办公室接受采访时说，沃什目前排在候选名单最前列。"是的，我觉得他是。我觉得你 有'凯文和凯文'——他们俩都……我觉得这两位凯文都很棒，我觉得还有另外几个人也很棒。" 近几周以来，外界越来越把哈塞特视为领跑者，因为特朗普多次暗示自己已经敲定了美联储主席人选； 但特朗普的最新表态显示，沃什仍然是强有力的竞争者。 美联储本周把基准利率下调25个基点至3.5%—3.75%的区间，创三年来最低水平。不过，该决定出现了 三张反对票，为2019年以来最多：两位官员反对任何降息，另一位——特朗普的前顾问史蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran）——则主张一次性降息50个基点。 近几周特朗普曾表示自己已经拿定主意由谁来领导央行。他周五再次强调了这一点，但同时也暗示最终 决定尚未完全敲定。他还承认，自己对当初选择现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）感到 懊恼，因为当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is not surprising, but the rationale behind it raises questions, particularly in light of the Fed's macroeconomic forecasts indicating higher GDP growth for the next year [1] Economic Outlook - The Fed's projections for GDP growth have increased by half a percent for 2026, suggesting a growing economy, which complicates the case for rate cuts [1] - The current Fed funds rate is viewed as appropriate given the economic conditions and inflation forecasts, leaving little room for further cuts [1] Artificial Intelligence Impact - The potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to boost productivity is acknowledged, but it poses a challenge for the Fed, as higher productivity could lead to higher interest rates rather than lower [1] - The uncertainty surrounding AI's impact on employment and productivity remains, with the possibility that AI could either complement or substitute human labor [1] Tariffs and Inflation - Chair Powell's comments on tariffs suggest that while they may temporarily raise prices, their long-term effects could be detrimental to productivity and supply chains [2][3] - The concern is less about immediate inflation and more about the corrosive long-term impact of tariffs on the economy [2] Federal Reserve Governance - The presence of dissenting opinions within the Fed is seen as a sign of a healthy organization, but it also presents challenges for governance, especially with an upcoming change in leadership [4][5] - The new Fed chair will need to unify differing perspectives while maintaining the Fed's independence from political influences [6][8] Economic Risks - There are both upside and downside risks to the economy, with the AI boom and economic resilience being potential positives, while a weakening labor market and credit cycle maturity pose risks [12][14] - Geopolitical risks are also highlighted as unpredictable factors that could impact the economic landscape [15]