Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to remain strong through the end of this year and into 2026, supported by new administration policies [3][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is currently at 2.9%, with expectations it may decrease to 2.8%, still above the Fed's target of 2% [5][6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement further rate cuts in the next two meetings, aligning with market expectations [4][5] - The Fed aims to gradually reduce inflation to 2% over the next two years, avoiding rapid changes that could destabilize the economy [6][9] Inflation Management - The Fed is expected to look through temporary inflationary effects from tariffs, which are anticipated to be smaller and delayed compared to previous expectations [8][9] - There is a discussion about potentially adopting a range for inflation targeting (2% to 3%) instead of a strict 2% target, although the current preference remains for a single target for clearer communication [10][11] Data Dependency and Challenges - The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report may be affected by a government shutdown, raising concerns about data availability for the Fed's decision-making [11][12] - The Fed has previously managed through similar situations, but the lack of data is not ideal for assessing the economy's state [12][13] Review of Economic Models - There is a call for a thorough review of the Fed's operational models, especially in light of the post-pandemic economic landscape [15][16] - The idea of running a new model in parallel with the existing one is suggested to improve future economic assessments [16]

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed little progress in August, a trend that is expected to keep the central bank on course for upcoming interest rate cuts. The Commerce Department reported Friday that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2. ...

Core Viewpoint - US stocks experienced a slight increase following the release of inflation data that aligned with expectations, which bolstered speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.2% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite saw a slight gain [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 190 points, equivalent to a 0.4% rise [1]

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed that inflationary pressures remained elevated in August, as policymakers seek to balance the need to restore price stability against a weakening labor market following last week's interest rate cut. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.3% in August from a month ago and is up 2.7% from last year. Those figures were in line with the estimate of LSEG economists.Core PCE, which excludes vol ...

Core Inflation and Interest Rates - Core inflation remained stable in August, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 0.3% for the month, resulting in an annual headline inflation rate of 2.7% [1] - The core PCE price level, excluding food and energy, was reported at 2.9% on an annual basis after a monthly rise of 0.2% [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to proceed with interest rate reductions, with indications of two more quarter percentage point cuts before the end of the year [3] Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Personal income rose by 0.4% for the month, while personal consumption expenditures increased at a pace of 0.6%, both exceeding estimates by 0.1 percentage point [3] - Despite the impact of tariffs, consumer spending has remained strong, supported by stable income levels [4] Tariffs and Price Impact - President Trump's tariffs have had a limited effect on consumer prices, as companies have utilized pre-tariff inventory and cost-absorbing measures to mitigate price increases [4] - Fed officials suggest that tariffs may provide a one-time boost to prices rather than a sustained increase in underlying inflation [5] Market Expectations - Markets are anticipating a rate cut in October, with less certainty regarding another cut in December [6] - The Federal Open Market Committee recently approved a quarter percentage point reduction in the fed funds rate, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the interest rate at 3.60% next week due to a tight labor market and the need to wait for clear signs of inflation easing [1] Economic Indicators - Analysts predict that the interest rate will drop to 3.35% by the end of this year, although some have postponed their expectations for a rate cut in November due to rising monthly inflation indicators [1] - Following multiple rate cuts, Australia's economic growth rebounded in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate remains relatively stable, indicating that the RBA can slow down its easing measures [1] Labor Market Analysis - Moody's economic analyst Sunny Kim Nguyen stated that the RBA has little urgency to act, even as the unemployment rate gradually rises. Compared to pre-pandemic norms, the labor market remains relatively tight, allowing the RBA to wait for third-quarter inflation data to avoid reigniting price pressures too early [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is demonstrating stronger performance than previously anticipated, leading traders to reassess the potential trajectory of interest rates for the upcoming year [1] Economic Outlook - The current economic strength is prompting a reconsideration of how low interest rates may need to be adjusted in the next year [1]

Europe-listed stocks listed are expected to open in mixed territory on Thursday, as investors await the latest U.S. jobs data.Futures tied to the FTSE 100 were last seen trading 0.2% lower, while those linked to the German DAX index and France's CAC 40 were flat.On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department will release its latest weekly jobs data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the cooling labor market was overriding concerns about sticky inflation, prompting the central bank's first int ...

Market Overview - Global share markets have shown signs of stagnation as investors reassess stretched valuations, leading to a decline in Wall Street for two consecutive days [1] - Asian stocks remained mostly stable, with Chinese bluechips rising by 0.9% due to the global AI surge [1] European Market Outlook - European markets are expected to open flat, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures showing little change, while Wall Street futures increased by 0.2% [2] - Asian shares have experienced a significant rally of 9% for the quarter, with Japan's Nikkei up 13% [2] Federal Reserve Insights - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that while further rate cuts are necessary, the timing remains uncertain, with more Fed officials scheduled to speak [3] - The market anticipates a 92% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in October, although the total expected easing has decreased from 125 basis points to 100 basis points [2] Currency Movements - The dollar experienced a 0.6% increase against major currencies, although its short-term technical outlook remains weak [4] - The yen has faced pressure, with the Swiss franc reaching an all-time high against the yen and the euro hovering near a one-year peak [4] Upcoming Economic Data - Key U.S. economic data to be released includes weekly jobless claims and the final estimate for Q2 GDP, with a focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report [5] - A significant rise in jobless claims could support the case for two additional rate cuts this year, while strong results may bolster the dollar and increase short-term yields [5]