Inflation Data Summary - The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed little change in September, with prices rising 0.3% from August, the same increase as the previous month [1] - Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in September, matching the previous month's pace, which would align inflation closer to the Fed's 2% target if sustained [2] - Overall prices increased by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly up from 2.7% in August, while core prices also rose 2.8%, a small decline from 2.9% the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - The data suggests muted core inflation in September, supporting the case for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming meeting [3] - Despite inflation being above the 2% target, weak hiring and modest economic growth are expected to gradually reduce price gains in the coming months [3] - Consumer spending grew by 0.3% in September, a decrease from 0.5% in August, indicating that Americans are still willing to spend despite high prices and stagnant hiring [6] Consumer Behavior - Recent data indicates an increase in consumer spending during Black Friday and the following weekend, with online spending rising by 7.7% compared to the same period last year [7] - Incomes rose by 0.4% in September for the second consecutive month, contributing to consumer spending capacity [8]

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation held below 3% in September, and indicated a moderate month-over-month increase in prices unlikely to block consideration of an interest-rate cut at the central bank's meeting next week. ...

Equity benchmarks ended Friday’s session with strong gains as the Reserve Bank of India’s 25 basis points repo rate cut to 5.25 per cent spurred broad-based buying in rate-sensitive sectors, with the Sensex closing at 85,712.37, up 447.05 points or 0.52 per cent, while the Nifty advanced 152.70 points or 0.59 per cent to settle at 26,186.45. The RBI’s unanimous decision, bringing cumulative cuts to 125 basis points since February 2025, was driven by record low retail inflation of 0.25 per cent in October. T ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision to pause interest rate hikes reflects a response to cooling inflation, allowing for more economic support amid tariff risks [1] Group 1 - The move ended a two-meeting streak of pauses in interest rate adjustments [1] - Cooling inflation is creating an opportunity for the economy to receive additional support [1] - The decision is influenced by the need to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - The World Gold Council (WGC) predicts that gold prices may rise by 15% to 30% by 2026 due to declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Copper Market - Mercuria plans to withdraw a significant amount of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, with a record increase in copper withdrawal applications of 50,575 tons, reaching a total of 56,875 tons, which constitutes 35% of LME's total inventory [3] - The supply tightness in the copper market is exacerbated by mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, leading to historically low copper inventories in LME-certified warehouses [4] - Recent data indicates a slight retreat in copper prices after a record high, as the panic over supply tightness begins to ease [6] - The U.S. government has classified copper as a critical mineral under the Defense Production Act, aiming to secure domestic copper resources [3] Group 3: Pulp Market - Pulp futures prices have rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with a recent increase of 5.73%, driven by supply disruptions from overseas pulp mills [8] - Domtar announced the permanent closure of its Crofton plant, reducing annual pulp production by approximately 380,000 tons, while other mills are also considering temporary shutdowns [8] - The international market for wood chips remains tight, contributing to rising prices for hardwood pulp [9] - Despite recent price increases, the overall supply-demand situation in the pulp market remains limited, with concerns over downstream paper demand affecting price stability [10] - The market is closely monitoring the price changes of imported softwood and hardwood pulps, as well as the acceptance of price increases by downstream sectors [11]

根据CMEFedWatch工具的最新统计，当前市场对美国12月政策会议下调25个基点的预期概率已接近89%，较一周前71%的概率大幅提升。对于黄金而言，利 率水平的调整至关重要——较低的利率环境会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而提升这种无收益资产的吸引力，这也是近期黄金价格获得支撑的核心逻辑之 一。 周四的市场将迎来首个重要数据考验。美国每周初次申请失业金人数将于稍后公布，作为高频就业指标，其数值变化将进一步印证劳动力市场的真实状况。 按照历史规律，若初请失业金人数高于预期，通常会被解读为就业市场降温的信号，可能进一步强化宽松预期，对黄金形成利好；反之则可能引发短期回 调。 数据关注点将在周五进一步延伸至延迟发布的美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）通胀数据。作为美联储重点关注的通胀指标，这份报告的核心数值将为利率路 径提供关键线索。市场分析认为，若数据显示通胀压力超预期回升，可能会暂时抑制宽松预期，推动美元短线走强，进而对黄金价格形成阶段性压力；若通 胀延续平稳回落态势，则将为政策调整提供更充分的依据。 从近期整体趋势来看，11月国际黄金已累计实现5.4%的涨幅，月末更是呈现强势反弹特征。除了政策预期因素，全球央行持 ...

3 December 2025 | 3:15PM EST Economics Research Pierfrancesco Mei +1(212)902-8809 | pierfrancesco.mei@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 On November 21st n , New York Fed President Williams argued for "a further adjustment [to the funds rate] in the near t ...

2025.12.04 本文字数：2267，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 截至12月3日，根据 Kalshi 预测市场数据，哈塞特出任下任美联储主席的概率超过80%。 鲍威尔的决定 如果哈塞特成为美联储新任主席，他将承担起特朗普改组美联储的重任。 除了鲍威尔以外，目前美联储理事会三名成员由前总统拜登任命，剩余三名则由特朗普任命。其中最新 任命的成员是米兰（Stephen Miran）。若鲍威尔在领导任期结束后未辞去理事职务，或特朗普未能成 功罢免拜登任命的美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook），那么米兰将不得不辞职，为新美联储主席候选人腾 出职位。 据媒体报道，特朗普政府取消了原定于周三美联储主席候选人终选名单面试。在美国总统此前一天发出 重要信号后，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）已经成为了新任美联储主席的最大 热门，他也将成为特朗普"改组"美联储的关键人物，然而摆在其面前的挑战随着宏观经济形势走向不确 定性依然艰巨。 大局已定？ 据知情人士透露，特朗普团队已告知候选人，原定于周三与副总统万斯（JD Vance）的面试已取消，且 未说明决策理由。 特朗普周二表示，他 ...

2025.12. 04 据媒体报道，特朗普政府取消了原定于周三美联储主席候选人终选名单面试。在美国总统此前一天发 出重要信号后，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）已经成为了新任美联储主席 的最大热门，他也将成为特朗普"改组"美联储的关键人物，然而摆在其面前的挑战随着宏观经济形势 走向不确定性依然艰巨。 大局已定？ 据知情人士透露，特朗普团队已告知候选人，原定于周三与副总统万斯（JD Vance）的面试已取 消，且未说明决策理由。 特朗普周二表示，他将在明年初宣布接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的人选。"我想，一位潜在的美联储 主席今天也在场。我可以这么说吗？是'潜在'的。我能告诉你的是，他是一位受人尊敬的人。"特朗 普在白宫活动中如是说道。 63岁的哈塞特曾在特朗普第一任期内担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，现在是政府核心经济顾问。他 通过不定期在CNBC、福克斯新闻等频道露面，支持特朗普大规模征收进口关税的政策，并赞同其降 本文字数：2267，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 低利率的呼吁。此外，哈塞特的办公室位于白宫西翼，这意味着他能直接接触到特朗普，并且在贸 易、经济议题以及 ...

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Thursday, after Wall Street gained on the latest jobs data that raised hopes the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next week.Payroll processor ADP reported that private companies cut 32,000 workers in November, compared with 47,000 additions in October, and well below the 40,000 increase expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of a cut when the Federal Reserve meets on Dec. 9-10, significantly higher than rate-cut bets just a c ...