当地时间4日下午，日本自民党将举行党总裁选举投计票。 10月4日，日本自民党将举行党总裁选举投计票。 据央视新闻报道，本次自民党总裁选举共有5名候选人，分别为现任农林水产大臣小泉进次郎、现任内阁官房长官林芳正、前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早 苗和小林鹰之、自民党前干事长茂木敏充。 自民党此前公布的投票日具体流程为：当地时间4日13时开始该党国会议员投票，大约在14时10分公布第一轮投票结果。第一轮投票如果没有候选者获得过 半数支持，则将进入最终投票环节，结果预计在15时20分前后揭晓。新任自民党总裁的记者会计划在当天傍晚举行。 小林鹰之 50岁 小林鹰之 曾任经济安全保障担当大臣 主张削减消费税;增加防务预算; 加强经济安保; 收紧外国人关联政策等; 政治立场偏向保守。 林芳正 64岁 聚焦生活成本上涨对经济冲击的应对; 支持日本央行加息; 关注地方振兴等; 政治立场相对温和。 茂木敏充 69岁 69岁 两年内使日本走上复兴之路; 实现超过物价上涨幅度的工资增长; 设数万亿日元规模的补助金等; 政治立场相对温和。 图片来源|新华社 策划| 潘寅茹 制图|方舟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4 is drawing significant attention from investors, particularly regarding the policy positions of the five candidates, with Sanae Takaichi being identified as the most likely to cause market volatility [1][7]. Candidate Policy Positions - There are notable divergences among the candidates regarding tax policies, monetary policies, and fiscal directions, with Takaichi seen as a potential catalyst for market fluctuations [1]. - Takaichi's victory could lead to significant impacts on the yen and Japanese government bond markets, as she prioritizes debt-to-GDP ratios over strict fiscal discipline, which may raise expectations for fiscal expansion [1][8]. - In contrast, candidates Shinjiro Koizumi and Yoshimasa Hayashi are expected to maintain continuity in policies, while Takayuki Kobayashi is the only candidate who has not ruled out consumption tax cuts, which could strengthen the yen if he wins [1][4]. Market Reactions - Current market participants are in a wait-and-see mode, with low volatility in the dollar-yen options market, attributed to lessons learned from previous elections and the difficulty in predicting outcomes due to a lack of voting intention information [8]. - If Takaichi wins, it is anticipated to trigger significant market reactions, including a weaker yen and a steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve [8]. - The potential victory of Koizumi or Hayashi may lead to a mild strengthening of the yen and a flattening of the yield curve, but overall market reactions are expected to be subdued due to a lack of change in outlook [8]. Upcoming Events - Several public debates and policy speeches are scheduled in the next two weeks, culminating in a vote that ends on October 3, followed by the official election on October 4 [6].

▲印度储备银行大楼外的卢比符号装置。图据视觉中国 9月11日，卢比兑美元汇率较前一日收盘下跌0.39%至88.4425，为历史新低。9月12日印度标准时间10点，卢比兑美元汇率报88.3025，较前一日反弹。反弹 原因主要是受到美联储可能降息的预期提振。 外汇咨询公司CR Forex负责人帕巴里在接受采访时表示，目前印度面临的情况越来越复杂：美国对印度的关税导致出口压力增加，加上缺乏投资组合流动， 让货币卢比陷入了压力循环。 目前，印度出口商面临订单流的不确定性，而进口商则被迫更积极地对冲外汇风险，从而扭曲了货币市场的供需平衡。 印度卢比兑美元汇率在9月11日一度跌至历史新低，9月12日开盘后反弹回升。卢比汇率的剧烈波动，反映出美国此前对印度征收的高额关税，对 印度这一亚洲第三大经济体造成的压力越来越大。据印度经济媒体报道，今年迄今为止，外国投资者已从印度债务和股票市场净撤资117亿美 元。 美国总统特朗普9月9日在社交媒体发文称："我很高兴宣布，印度与美国正继续就解决两国间贸易壁垒进行谈判。我期待在未来几周与我的挚友莫迪总理通 话。我确信，我们两个伟大国家必将顺利达成协议！" 莫迪随后发文回应称，表示期待与 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Ratnik, predicts that India is likely to resume trade negotiations with the U.S. within two months, following a recent imposition of retaliatory tariffs by the U.S. on Indian products [2] - The U.S. has started imposing a 50% retaliatory tariff on Indian products since August 27, which is part of the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Benset, has reiterated plans to increase tariffs on India, accusing the country of profiting from cheap oil imports from Russia during the Ukraine war [3] Group 2 - India is strengthening its cooperation with Russia, with the intent to benefit its large refining industry rather than meeting domestic demand for oil [3] - On September 3, the Indian government announced a reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates from four brackets to two, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] - The new GST rates, effective from September 22, will cover a wide range of products, with significant reductions in tax rates for items such as air conditioners and televisions, potentially decreasing from 28% to 18% [3]

Group 1: Logistics and Transportation - The first multi-modal transport "single document" train from Guizhou carrying 4,320 tons of fertilizer has officially launched, marking the implementation of this transport service model in Guizhou [1] - The China-Europe Railway Express (Shenzhen) celebrated its 5th anniversary, having cumulatively transported goods worth over $30 billion and connecting 47 countries and regions [2][5] - The Guizhou International Cargo Center has achieved a total cargo throughput of 10,700 tons since the launch of the all-cargo flight from Guizhou to Kolkata on December 13, 2023, supporting the development of international air cargo in Guizhou [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The total revenue of the national broadcasting and television service industry reached 688.41 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.24% [2] - India's government proposed to reduce the consumption tax on small cars from 28% to 18% as part of a broader tax reduction plan [3] - Spain's trade deficit expanded from 2.543 billion euros in May to 3.588 billion euros in June [3]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a significant Senate election that could impact the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, amid a historic sell-off of government bonds and declining support for the ruling party [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Scenarios - Scenario 1: If the ruling coalition retains a majority, it would be favorable for Japanese government bonds and the yen, despite Japan's high debt burden of approximately 250% of GDP, which is showing a declining trend [1] - Scenario 2: The most likely outcome is that the ruling coalition fails to secure the necessary 50 seats, leading to a potential partnership with the National Democratic Party, which advocates for reversing the Bank of Japan's policies [2] - Scenario 3: A strong performance by opposition parties could have the most significant negative impact on the Japanese market, with major opposition parties supporting some form of consumption tax reduction [2] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Barclays analysts noted that if the National Democratic Party and the opposition party exceed expectations in votes, the yield curve could steepen, with long-term rates rising significantly [3] - Analysts from Societe Generale indicated that a coalition government formed by the opposition could lead to increased government bond issuance to abolish consumption and gasoline taxes, although this scenario has a low probability of about 10% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant challenges for the ruling coalition, which must secure at least 50 additional seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Election Context - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, currently holds 75 non-renewable seats in the Senate and needs to win 50 more to maintain a majority [1]. - The election outcome could lead to various fiscal policies, including cash handouts and potential consumption tax cuts, depending on the coalition's performance [2][3]. Group 2: Possible Scenarios - Scenario A: The ruling coalition retains a majority, increasing the likelihood of cash handouts being included in the 2025 supplementary budget, but no consumption tax cuts in the 2026 tax reform proposal [2]. - Scenario B: The ruling coalition slightly loses its majority, leading to potential alliances with opposition parties, which may result in both cash handouts and temporary consumption tax cuts [3]. - Scenario C: A significant loss of majority may force the ruling coalition to include opposition parties, facing pressure for both cash handouts and consumption tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The cash handout policy, amounting to approximately ¥3.5 trillion (about 0.6% of GDP), is expected to have limited impact on economic growth, with only a projected 0.2% increase in private consumption and 0.1% in GDP [7][9]. - In contrast, a reduction in the food consumption tax from 8% to 0% could lead to a more substantial GDP growth of about 0.5% due to a decrease in the effective consumption tax rate [9]. - Analysts warn that temporary consumption tax cuts may lead to a significant GDP decline of 6% in Q2 2027 when these measures expire, potentially prompting political pressure to extend them [12]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite uncertainties surrounding the election, expectations remain that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, maintaining the policy rate unchanged for the remainder of the fiscal year [13].