1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The stock index futures market has been oscillating along the lower edge of the central range since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes, frequent sector rotations, and relatively mild market sentiment. Important meetings have a long - term positive impact on the stock index, but in the short term, it will mainly oscillate. The expected GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 will not change, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity." Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, and the scale may increase slightly compared to this year. Overseas, there is a divergence in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision may affect carry - trade funds [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central economic work conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. In the short term, the capital market is loose under the care of monetary policy, but the overall economy remains resilient, and prices are warming up. Therefore, the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% on Monday after a day of rising and then falling, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% in the afternoon. More than 3,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined, with a trading volume of over 2.15 trillion. The short - term impact of policies on the market is expected to increase. The expected GDP growth rate of 5% in 2026 will not change, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity." Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and restarted the balance - sheet expansion plan, but there is a divergence in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision may affect carry - trade funds. The short - term trend is oscillating [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts fell by 0.91%, 0.28%, 0.18%, and 0.07% respectively at the close. The central bank conducted 482.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on December 29, with a net injection of 415 billion yuan. DR001 fell 1.3BP to 1.24%, and DR007 rose 7BP to 1.59%. The short - term trend is relatively strong, but the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From December 26 to December 29, IH fell 0.44% (from 3,051.4 to 3,038.0), IF fell 0.61% (from 4,638.4 to 4,610.2), IC fell 0.70% (from 7,388.0 to 7,336.6), and IM fell 0.45% (from 7,472.4 to 7,439.0) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.35% (from 3,045.4 to 3,034.6), the CSI 300 Index fell 0.38% (from 4,657.2 to 4,639.4), the CSI 500 Index fell 0.38% (from 7,458.8 to 7,430.6), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.15% (from 7,605.5 to 7,594.2) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.07% (from 102.55 to 102.48), TF fell 0.20% (from 106.05 to 105.84), T fell 0.30% (from 108.30 to 107.98), and TL fell 1.01% (from 112.96 to 111.82) [3]. 3.3 Market News - **Overall Trend**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1% in the afternoon. More than 3,300 stocks declined, and the trading volume exceeded 2.15 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% [5]. - **Industry Sectors**: The carbon fiber concept strengthened, with stocks like Heshun Technology and Jilin Chemical Fiber hitting the daily limit. The digital currency concept rose, with stocks like Yuyin Co., Ltd. and Cuiwei Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. The large - consumption and lithium - battery sectors declined, with stocks like Anji Food and Baida Group hitting the daily limit down and stocks like Sunwoda and Hongyuan Pharmaceutical falling more than 10% [5]. - **Popular Concepts**: Robot concept stocks remained active, with stocks like Shangwei New Materials and Buke Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit and reaching new highs. The commercial aerospace concept continued to be strong, with stocks like China Satellite and Shenjian Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends, spot - bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital - interest rate trends of treasury bond futures main contracts [14][16][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and Japanese yen against the RMB, as well as the forward exchange rates and currency - pair exchange rates [24][28][30][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [2][3][4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, the market showed a volatile trend with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight - consecutive - day gain despite two intraday dips. The short - term sentiment deviated from the rise - fall ratio, with nearly 3,400 stocks falling but nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit. The electrolyte, lithium ore, and industrial metal concepts led the gains, while the lithography machine, optical chip, and OCS concepts led the losses [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 3045.4036, 4604.27, and 4736.66 respectively. The turnovers were 34.10 billion yuan, 175.40 billion yuan, and the trading volumes were 0.41 billion and 266.26 billion respectively. The price - to - earnings ratios were not provided in a straightforward way, but the relevant data shows the market performance of these indices [3] - **Options Trading**: For the Shanghai 50 index options, the trading volume of call options was 3.54 million contracts, put options was 2.47 million contracts, and the open interest was 5.10 million contracts. For the CSI 300 index options, the trading volume of call options was 13.58 million contracts, put options was 9.03 million contracts, and the open interest was 16.10 million contracts. For the CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume of call options was 32.12 million contracts, put options was 19.53 million contracts, and the open interest was 27.04 million contracts. The PCR (put - call ratio) for each index was also provided, with values of 0.68, 0.71, and 0.98 respectively [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The historical volatility and volatility cones of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were presented, including the minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current values. The historical volatility was analyzed for different time periods such as 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day [3][4] - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The volatility smile curves of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility were also shown, with different strike prices and corresponding implied volatility values [3][4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1% at 3961.21 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.23% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.06% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 101.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] Film Industry - The film sector experienced a significant surge, with the 2025 New Year box office reaching 5.245 billion yuan, marking the highest level in nearly eight years [6][5] - Notable stocks in the film sector included Baida Qiancheng, which hit the daily limit with a 20% increase, and Jin Yi Film, which also reached the limit [5][6] Robotics Sector - The humanoid robotics sector continued its upward trend, with stocks like Wuzhou Xinchun and Tianqi Co. both hitting the daily limit of 10% [7][8] - The establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence was announced, aimed at enhancing high-quality standards and promoting technology application [9] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhuosheng Micro rising over 10% and Dongxin Co. increasing by over 6% [10][11] - A major acquisition by SMIC was announced, involving the purchase of a 49% stake in a subsidiary for 40.6 billion yuan, which will result in SMIC owning 100% of the subsidiary [12] Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with China Satellite and China Satcom both achieving new highs, and several stocks recording daily limits [13][18] - A new guideline was released to facilitate financing for commercial rocket companies, aimed at supporting the industry's growth and technological advancements [18]

沪指早盘一度震荡翻红，创业板指冲高回落。南财金融终端显示，截至早盘收盘，沪指跌0.1%，深成指涨0.23%，创业板指跌0.06%。 盘面上热点快速轮动，全市场超2700只个股下跌。 下跌方面，海南自贸概念跌幅居前，海南发展、罗牛山下挫； 多只零售概念股走弱，百大集团触及跌停，东百集团、茂业商业跌超5%。 沪深两市半日成交额1.29万亿元，较上个交易日缩量1019亿。 个股方面，中际旭创成交额超122亿元居首，航天发展、金风科技、中国卫星成交额靠前。 | 沪深A股 | | 上证A股 深证A股 创业板 | 科创板 风险警示 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅 | 最新价 | | | | | | 成交额▼ | | 1 300308 | | 中际旭创 | +1.14% | 625.07 | +7.07 | +0.06% | 0.82 | 1.75% | 4.75% | 122.03亿 | | 2 000547 | | 航天发展 | +6.65% | 33 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations in the morning session, while the ChiNext Index saw a rise followed by a decline [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 101.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2] - Over 2,700 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad market weakness [1][2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed repeated activity, with Daye Co. achieving five consecutive trading limits, China Satellite Communications hitting a new high with two limits in three days, and Zhongchao Holdings recording four limits in five days [1][2] - The humanoid robot sector continued its strong performance, with Tianqi Co. achieving four consecutive limits and Wuzhou New Spring hitting two limits [1][2] - The digital currency sector was active, with Yuyin Co. and Cuiwei Co. both achieving two consecutive limits [1][2] - The AI application sector saw a significant rise, with Kute Intelligent reaching a 20% limit up [1][2] Declining Stocks - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept faced significant declines, with Hainan Development and Luoniushan both experiencing notable drops [1][2] - Several retail stocks weakened, with Baida Group hitting the limit down, and Dongbai Group and Maoye Commercial both dropping over 5% [1][2] Index Closing - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.06% [1][2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations in the morning session, while the ChiNext Index saw a peak and then a decline. The CSI A500 Index rose by 0.13% [1] - The commercial aerospace sector showed repeated activity, humanoid robot concepts continued to be strong, and AI applications maintained an upward trend. Conversely, the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept faced significant declines, with multiple retail stocks weakening [1] ETF Performance - Several ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index saw slight increases, with 12 ETFs exceeding a transaction volume of 1 billion yuan, and 2 surpassing 11 billion yuan. The A500 ETF from Huatai-PB and the A500 ETF Fund had transaction volumes of 11.247 billion yuan and 11.009 billion yuan, respectively [1][2] - Specific ETF performance included: - A500 ETF Huatai-PB: Current price 1.262, up 0.08%, with a transaction volume of 11.247 billion yuan [2] - A500 ETF Fund: Current price 1.187, up 0.08%, with a transaction volume of 11.009 billion yuan [2] - Other A500 ETFs also showed varied performance, with transaction volumes ranging from 1.61 billion yuan to 67.7 billion yuan [2] Market Sentiment - Brokerage firms indicated that as the year-end approaches, institutional reallocation demand is being released alongside capital inflow, which is expected to improve market liquidity and boost trading activity. A consensus for a year-end rally is gradually forming [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations, briefly turning positive, while the ChiNext Index saw a pullback after a rise. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 101.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 2,700 stocks in the market declined [1][3]. Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector remained active, with Daye Co. achieving five consecutive trading limits, China Satellite Communications hitting a new high with two limits in three days, and Zhongchao Holdings recording four limits in five days [3]. - The humanoid robot sector continued its strong performance, with Tianqi Co. achieving four consecutive limits and Wuzhou New Spring hitting two limits [3]. - The digital currency sector showed lively performance, with Yuyin Co. and Cuiwei Co. both achieving two consecutive limits [3]. - AI applications saw a rise, with Kute Intelligent hitting a 20% limit up [3]. - Conversely, the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept faced significant declines, with Hainan Development and Luoniushan experiencing sharp drops. Several retail stocks weakened, with Baida Group hitting the limit down and Dongbai Group and Maoye Commercial both dropping over 5% [3]. Closing Summary - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.06% [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, closing at 3961.21 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.23% to 13568.09 points [2] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.06%, ending at 3220.56 points, with a total trading volume of 1.29 trillion yuan, down by 101.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed notable activity, with major stocks like Daye Co. achieving five consecutive trading limit-ups, and China Satellite Communications hitting new highs [2] - The humanoid robot concept continued to perform strongly, with Tianqi Co. achieving four consecutive limit-ups and Wuzhou New Spring securing two consecutive limit-ups [2] - The digital currency sector was active, with Yuyin Co. and Cuiwei Co. both achieving two consecutive limit-ups [2] - AI application stocks saw significant gains, with Kute Intelligent hitting a 20% limit-up [2] Declining Stocks - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks faced significant declines, with Hainan Development and Roniu Mountain experiencing sharp drops [3] - Several retail stocks weakened, with Baida Group hitting the trading limit down, and Dongbai Group and Maoye Commercial both dropping over 5% [3]

每经AI快讯，12月30日，早盘商业航天概念探底回升，中国卫星涨超5%，续创历史新高，此前大业股 份5连板，雷科防务、长城电工、华菱线缆、中超控股涨停，中航重机、东方通信触及涨停。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每经AI快讯，12月30日，商业航天概念盘初调整，天箭科技一字跌停，神剑股份、超捷股份、创元科 技、九鼎新材、航天环宇等跌超5%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...