制造团队联合展望 - 2026 年度策略报告汇报会议 20251126 摘要 全球储能市场迎来爆发式增长，特别是在中国和北美地区，数据中心发 展推动储能需求，预计明年中国储能市场将翻倍增长，海外增速达 40- 50%。 新能源并网导致电网消纳能力不足，电网投资将显著增加，尤其在中国 和欧洲，储能和电网建设共同解决区域间电力供给不平衡问题。 终端用户侧储能需求增加，户用储能和工商储能通过节省能源成本推动 市场发展，经济性拐点已到达，未来将显著提升。 高效、低碳、高密度能源如海上风电、燃气轮机等，满足全球脱碳进程 中的高密度能源需求，是未来五年重要发展领域。 通过分析上市公司固定资产增速筛选优质公司，关注大规模储能、户用 储能、锂电、电力设备出海、新能源新技术及特高压等领域。 数据中心供电系统正经历革命性变化，800 伏 HVDC 供电架构和 SST 供电方向成为发展趋势，显著提升了北美数据中心的储能需求。 中国军贸迎来确定性发展时刻，预计未来 10 年市场份额将从 5.9%提升 至 12%-15%，军用技术民用化将打开新市场。 Q&A 2026 年电力设备新能源行业的投资策略有哪些重要方向？ 2026 年电力设 ...

11月26日，《中国经营报》记者从国家航天局获悉，国家航天局日前印发《国家航天局推进商业航天高 质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》（以下简称《行动计划》）。 《行动计划》明确，到2027年，基本实现商业航天高质量发展的目标。围绕上述目标，《行动计划》明 确将推出增强创新创造动能、高效利用能力资源、推动产业发展壮大、做好行业管理服务、加强全链条 安全监管等五方面22项重点举措。 多位业内人士在接受记者采访时表示，这份计划的出台并非偶然，而是基于深刻的国内外形势和内在发 展需求。首先，发展商业航天是落实"航天强国""创新驱动发展"等国家战略的具体行动；其次，目前全 球范围内，以SpaceX为代表的商业航天力量正在重塑航天产业格局，中国必须跟上这一浪潮；再次， 随着"新基建"的推进，对卫星互联网、遥感数据服务、太空实验等需求激增，引入商业力量，可以更好 释放国内市场需求与潜力。此外，目前中国已涌现出数百家商业航天公司，在火箭、卫星、应用等领域 进行了积极探索，但也出现了重复建设、标准不一、安全风险等问题，国家需要出台政策，引导行业 从"野蛮生长"转向"有序协同、高质量发展"。 值得关注的是，近日，国家国 ...

根据公开的组织架构，此前卫星产业监管职能呈现"切块"特征：国防科工局作为民用卫星发射主管部门，主抓卫星工程统筹及发射审批；国家 航天局侧重技术论证与支持；工信部下属的信息通信发展司、信息通信管理局和无线电管理局，则分别负责网络建设政策、市场准入与设备进 网以及卫星轨道频率协调等。 处于爆发前夜的商业航天领域，迎来顶层管理架构的职能整合。 近日，国家国防科技工业局（下称"国防科工局"）官网发布的2026年度考试录用公务员公告，计划招录"商业航天司航天监管岗"。另据国家公 务员局公开招录信息显示，该岗位职级为"一级主任科员及以下"，职位简介为"承担商业航天领域政策研究、项目管理、重大事项组织协调、 安全监管等工作"。 据了解，商业航天司为国防科工局近期新增设部门，目前正处于人员招募的起步阶段。 这一机构设置的变动，被业界视为国家从体制机制层面破解商业航天复杂监管现状、推动产业向规范化、规模化转型的关键信号。 图片来源：新华社 职能整合提速 长期以来，中国卫星及商业航天产业面临着较为复杂的监管版图，职能分散于国防科工局、国家航天局以及工信部其他直属单位等多个部门。 眼下，中国商业航天正处于从技术验证向大规模组网和应 ...

记者丨彭新 编辑丨张星 处于爆发前夜的商业航天领域，迎来顶层管理架构的职能整合。 近日， 国家国防科技工业局（下称"国防科工局"）官网发布的2026年度考试录用公务员公 告，计划招录"商业航天司航天监管岗"。 另据国家公务员局公开招录信息显示，该岗位职级 为"一级主任科员及以下"，职位简介为"承担商业航天领域政策研究、项目管理、重大事项组 织协调、安全监管等工作"。 据了解，商业航天司为国防科工局近期新增设部门，目前正处于人员招募的起步阶段。 这一机构设置的变动，被业界视为国家从体制机制层面破解商业航天复杂监管现状、推动产业 向规范化、规模化转型的关键信号。 图片来源：新华社 职能整合提速 卫星制造商银河航天向记者回应称，国防科工局商业航天司的成立有助于推动产业健康、有 序、高质量发展。公司期待商业航天司的设立持续推动我国商业航天加速发展，加速技术与产 业的融合创新，凝聚力量共同培育产业集群新生态。 此次商业航天司的设立，意在从顶层设计上解决上述职能交叉与分散的问题。据中信证券11月 23日研报，商业航天司的成立将有效整合多部门相关职能，卫星产业发展有望在更高层面实现 统筹协调，商业航天发射审批、卫星运营牌照 ...

01 极限换乘，中国完成世界航天史上罕见快速太空救援 从决策到返回仅240小时，刷新全球太空救援速度。 2025年11月5日，神舟二十号因返回舱舷窗被空间碎片击出裂纹，取消当日返程。10天内，地面完成风险评估，启动"双船"预案：三名航天员改乘刚 到的神舟二十一号，11月14日16时40分安全着陆，驻轨204天创中国最长纪录；受损神二十留轨做试验，后续由神二十二无人船接替救生。从决策到 返回仅240小时，刷新全球太空救援速度。 卫网君 "极限换乘"，不仅是一次技术层面的成功救援，更是中国在太空安全应急能力与体系化建设上具有里程碑意义的重大考验。 关键突破在于中国通过"预置化"思路将应急发射流程标准化，极大降低了决策成本，也为应对太空突发风险提供了可复用的模板。 本次事件表明，单一飞船的可靠性不足以保证绝对安全，必须通过体系韧性弥补技术脆弱性。在轨冗余、快速补位、跨任务联动相结合的多层次备份 体系，正是未来大规模太空活动必须具备的安全基石。 随着商业航天、深空探测和载人登月的推进，太空安全挑战将更加复杂，中国需进一步加快构建从应急到常态的太空安全新范式。 新闻链接： 02 近期商业航天项目盘点分析——82.5%与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the high-quality advancement of national defense and military modernization, highlighting the strategic importance of aerospace technology in achieving these goals [2][3]. Group 1: National Defense and Military Modernization - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has led to significant progress in national defense and military construction, with core equipment seeing rapid iteration and mass production, resulting in revenue growth for key companies such as AVIC and COMAC, projected to increase by 67%, 57%, and 51% respectively by 2024 compared to 2020 [2]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve the centenary military goals and high-quality modernization of national defense, with expectations for steady progress in core equipment iteration and production [2][3]. Group 2: Global Security and Defense Spending - Global military spending is projected to increase by 9.4% in 2024, reaching approximately $2.72 trillion, marking the largest single-year increase since the Cold War [2][7]. - China's share of the global market for special equipment is expected to gradually increase, enhancing industry growth potential and profitability, as current market share is only 5.9% compared to the U.S. at 43% [2][3]. Group 3: Integration of New Domains and Technologies - The defense system is transitioning towards a fusion of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization, with significant demand expected to be released in new domains and qualities [7][8]. - The article highlights the importance of unmanned systems and AI in modern defense, with expectations for rapid growth in these areas during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][10]. Group 4: Aerospace Industry Development - The achievements in aerospace during the "14th Five-Year Plan" have set the stage for continued growth in the aerospace sector, with significant milestones such as the completion of the Chinese space station and the Chang'e 6 mission [11]. - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with policies increasingly supporting its development, positioning it as a strategic emerging industry [11][12]. Group 5: Navigation and Remote Sensing Applications - The Beidou navigation system is expected to deepen its integration with various industries, with the total output value of the satellite navigation and positioning service industry projected to reach 575.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.39% [14][21]. - The number of remote sensing satellites in orbit has surpassed 400, with ongoing developments in commercial remote sensing constellations, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the remote sensing application industry [14][21].

Core Insights - The discussion focuses on the importance of developing future industries to create a high-tech industrial system comparable in scale over the next decade, emphasizing the need for strategic planning and innovation [2][3]. Group 1: Potential Key Areas and Global Development Trends - Future industries are characterized by innovation, strategy, long-term focus, externality, and high uncertainty, serving as a crucial path for economic growth and national competitive advantage [3]. - Global technological innovation is experiencing unprecedented activity, marked by new technologies (AI, 5G/6G, cloud computing), new infrastructure (intelligent and green upgrades), and new data elements becoming strategic resources [3][4]. - Key areas of focus for future industries include next-generation communication (6G, satellite internet), advanced computing (semiconductors, quantum computing), future intelligence (AI, brain-machine interfaces), and advanced manufacturing [5]. Group 2: China's Advantages and Challenges - China possesses several advantages in the six potential areas: proactive policy guidance, rich application scenarios due to a large domestic market, and abundant data resources [10]. - Specific advantages include leading technology innovation in 6G, strong AI capabilities, and a solid manufacturing base for humanoid robots [11]. - Challenges include a need for improved original innovation capabilities, key technology shortcomings (e.g., chips, operating systems), and a lack of high-quality datasets for AI and robotics [13][14]. Group 3: Pathways for Developing Future Industries - Strengthening top-level design and systematic layout is essential, including establishing mechanisms for global technology forecasting and enhancing policy coordination [15]. - Enhancing original innovation capabilities and addressing key technology gaps through collaborative efforts in high-end chips and core algorithms is crucial [16][17]. - Accelerating breakthroughs in key areas such as AI, 6G, and humanoid robots while fostering international cooperation to leverage global resources and markets is necessary for innovation [17].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the A-share bull market is expected to continue into 2026, with a forecast of a fluctuating upward trend in the index, although the rate of increase may slow down. Investors are advised to focus on fundamental improvements and economic verification [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current market is entering a critical phase of economic verification, where the index is expected to continue fluctuating upward but with a reduced rate of increase. This phase may see a style switch in the market, with sectors that have high valuations but lowered growth expectations potentially undergoing a phase adjustment [1][2]. - The bull market is supported by a shift in policy and improved liquidity, which are expected to continue or even strengthen through 2026. However, the report warns that excessive short-term gains could lead to an early peak in the bull market [1]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military industry, machinery equipment, and computers. Thematic focuses include new materials, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and cross-strait integration [1][2]. - The report highlights that after the technology bull market, resource commodities may become a new mainline direction for A-shares. Conditions for a resource bull market are accumulating, driven by global monetary easing, supply-demand gaps, and the ongoing competition for key resources amid US-China tensions [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should look for performance elasticity and capitalize on structural market trends, particularly in AI, new energy, and critical resources. The competition between the US and China in future industries and frontier technologies is expected to intensify, with a focus on AI, new energy, biotechnology, and quantum technology [2]. - The military industry is identified as a significant direction for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with attention on rare earth equipment, superhard materials, special gases, aerospace equipment, and new materials [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant investment opportunities in the aerospace sector following the elevation of the "Aerospace Power" strategy in China's policy framework, indicating a shift from theme-driven investments to a focus on fundamental industry growth [2][11][12]. Group 1: Policy and Strategic Importance - The "Aerospace Power" strategy has been recognized as a core national strategy, alongside manufacturing and quality power, indicating a substantial increase in policy support for the aerospace industry [11][14]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of strategic emerging industries, including aerospace, which is expected to drive demand and investment in the sector [15][19]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Logic - The investment logic in the aerospace sector is transitioning from short-term thematic investments to long-term fundamental-driven investments, supported by policy, technology, and market dynamics [14][18]. - Current industry fundamentals are improving, with high gross margins and growth potential, suggesting that the sector is moving towards value-driven investment [17][18]. Group 3: Commercialization and Growth Potential - The commercialization of aerospace is expected to accelerate, with significant growth in demand anticipated in the coming years, particularly in satellite communication and general aviation [20][23]. - The aerospace industry is currently in a recovery phase, with leading companies showing improved performance and clearer paths from orders to earnings [18][19]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider index-based investment tools to participate in the aerospace sector, given the complexity and high risk associated with individual stock selection [26][27]. - The current market conditions present a favorable window for long-term investment in the aerospace industry, with significant growth potential driven by policy support and technological advancements [25][26]. Group 5: Risks and Challenges - The aerospace sector faces high risks due to rapid technological changes and the need for significant R&D investment, which may impact the industry's growth trajectory [19][29]. - The potential for increased competition and the challenges of technology iteration are highlighted as significant risks for investors in the aerospace sector [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the telecommunications sector, including ZTE Corporation, China Telecom, Ruijie Networks, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Huace Navigation, China Mobile, and Xinyi Technology, while China Unicom is rated as "Hold" [9][49]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a triple inflection point in policy, performance, and technology, with the 14th Five-Year Plan highlighting the goal of building a strong aerospace nation, which is expected to elevate the focus on commercial aerospace and related industries [2][3][12]. - Performance-wise, China Star Network has accelerated its satellite launch schedule, and Shanghai Yanjin has resumed launches, which is anticipated to boost the performance of upstream satellite manufacturing and related sectors [3][13][18]. - Technologically, domestic commercial rocket companies are speeding up their IPO processes, with significant progress made on new rockets like Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3, indicating advancements in reusable rocket technology [3][15][18]. Summary by Sections Policy Perspective - The 14th Five-Year Plan has officially introduced the goal of building a strong aerospace nation, marking a significant elevation of the aerospace industry to a core national strategy [13][14]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has granted satellite mobile communication business licenses to major operators, enabling them to legally conduct satellite direct connection services [13][14]. Performance Perspective - China Star Network has completed its ninth launch of the year, with plans to deploy approximately 1,300 satellites by the end of 2029, achieving 10% of its overall deployment goal within the next five years [14][18]. - Shanghai Yanjin's "Qianfan Constellation" successfully launched 18 satellites, bringing the total number of satellites in orbit to 108, marking a significant milestone in its network deployment [14][18]. Technology Perspective - The IPO process for domestic rocket companies is accelerating, with Zhuque-3 completing key tests and preparations for its launch, showcasing advancements in reusable rocket technology [15][18]. - Multiple types of reusable rockets are currently undergoing validation, indicating imminent advancements in rocket recovery technology [15][18].