Core Insights - The real estate market in key cities experienced a slight cooling in October after a high performance in September, with a notable divergence in market conditions across different regions [1][2][8] - New home prices showed a slight increase nationally, while the second-hand housing market continued to face downward pressure [5][6] Market Performance - In Beijing, the second-hand housing market saw a significant decline in transactions, with 12,087 units signed in October, down 23.7% month-on-month, while new home transactions were 3,453 units [2] - Shenzhen's total residential transactions (new and second-hand) reached 6,847 units in October, a decrease of 10.3% from the previous month, with new home transactions down 14.1% [2] - Shanghai's second-hand housing market recorded 18,483 transactions in October, a decrease of 9.3%, but showed resilience with a daily average transaction increase of over 10% compared to September [3][4] Price Trends - The average price of new homes in 100 cities increased by 0.28% month-on-month to 16,973 yuan per square meter, while the average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.84% to 13,268 yuan per square meter [6] - In Shenzhen, the average transaction price for second-hand homes was 58,900 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% month-on-month [7] - The overall market is experiencing price adjustments, with many cities seeing significant declines in second-hand home prices, particularly in cities like Kunshan and Nanjing [6][7] Market Outlook - The year-end performance of real estate companies is expected to be influenced by increased supply in core cities, which may support new home sales, while second-hand home transactions are anticipated to continue a moderate recovery [8] - The fourth quarter is likely to reveal the effects of market dynamics, with a noticeable year-on-year decline in sales volume for both new and second-hand homes in key cities [8]

Core Insights - The focus of China's real estate development is shifting towards improving people's livelihoods, with "promoting high-quality real estate development" now framed within the context of "enhancing and improving people's livelihoods" [1] - The evaluation criteria for the industry will transition from investment and sales scale to meeting people's aspirations for quality housing and better living conditions [2] Group 1: Industry Direction - The new model for real estate development is prioritized, marking a necessary shift in the industry's evolution [3] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties are expected to be sold, indicating a transition from a focus on new construction to urban renewal and existing housing markets [3] - The adjustment in the market is driven by significant changes in supply and demand relationships, indicating a long-term trend towards balancing new and existing housing [6] Group 2: Policy and Implementation - Comprehensive improvements are needed in the foundational systems of real estate development, financing, and sales [4] - Key areas for development include reforms in the pre-sale system, enhancing housing quality, diversifying financing channels such as REITs, and flexible adjustments to purchase and loan policies [5] Group 3: Housing Supply and Demand - The focus on "guarantee" emphasizes the need for adequate housing, with plans to construct over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing during the "14th Five-Year Plan," benefiting over 30 million people [8] - The "market" aspect aims to increase the supply of improved housing, with data showing that large-sized housing transactions are becoming mainstream in the new housing market [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The inclusion of "high-quality real estate development" in the livelihood guarantee framework determines the main direction for the new model of real estate development [11] - The industry must adhere to the principles of "adequate housing" and "suitable living conditions," as the market dynamics have fundamentally changed, impacting the future of real estate enterprises and individual living standards [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hubei Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued a notice to optimize housing provident fund policies to stabilize the real estate market, including measures such as increasing loan limits and removing restrictions on withdrawals for purchasing homes in different locations [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The notice includes five key measures aimed at meeting residents' rigid and diverse housing needs, such as increasing loan limits and adjusting loan terms [1] - Cities like Guangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, and Weihai have also introduced similar measures in October to enhance housing provident fund policies [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The real estate market has shown stability in October, with the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities at 16,973 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.28%, while the average price of second-hand homes decreased by 0.84% to 13,268 yuan per square meter [2] - The introduction of policies has created a favorable purchasing environment, leading to an increase in the quality and value of housing options available [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term policies are expected to focus on stabilizing the market, while long-term goals aim for high-quality development in the industry [3] - The end of the year will see real estate companies striving to meet performance targets, with core cities likely to support new home sales through increased supply [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [12]. Core Insights - The profitability of real estate companies is currently under pressure due to falling prices of old inventory and unsold properties, making a systemic profit turnaround unlikely in the short term. However, a structural turnaround is anticipated, particularly for new properties post-2022, as land prices have decreased, leading to improved profitability for new inventory starting in 2024. As the peak of old inventory impairment subsides, the proportion of new and recently launched properties in revenue recognition will increase, potentially leading to improved profit margins for some companies by 2027. Despite ongoing market downturns affecting new property sales, there is expected policy support for high-quality developments, suggesting a sustainable structural market for "good properties" [2][10][12]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 0.88% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.45%. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 12.95%, but still lags behind the CSI 300 by 4.99% [7][15]. Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a one-time personal credit relief policy in early 2026 and has emphasized the need for prudent macro-management of real estate finance. The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines five key directions for promoting high-quality development in real estate, including optimizing housing supply and enhancing the quality of housing and property services [8][17]. Sales Trends - Recent data indicates a widening year-on-year decline in new and second-hand home transactions across sample cities. For instance, new home transaction area in 37 cities saw a rolling year-on-year decline of 35.4%, while second-hand homes in 17 cities declined by 24.3% [9][18]. Structural Market Changes - The current adjustment phase in the real estate cycle is characterized by convergence and differentiation, with some high rental yield cities stabilizing. The profitability of older inventory is under pressure, but new and recently launched properties are expected to see a significant increase in profitability starting in 2024, laying the groundwork for a structural turnaround [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][27]. Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, aiming to establish a new development model and integrate real estate into the social security system [4][27]. - The report highlights a rebound in new home sales, with a week-on-week increase of 9.9% in 34 key cities, while second-hand home sales saw a slight decline [4][5]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the "Good House" policy and the revaluation of commercial real estate [4][27]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 2.835 million square meters, up 9.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 12.5% [4][5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October decreased by 26.8%, with first and second-tier cities down 25.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 41.2% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 1.152 million square meters, down 1.1% week-on-week, and down 22.2% year-on-year for October [4][13]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 key cities, 770,000 square meters were launched for sale, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 1.59, indicating a healthy demand [4][22]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.296 million square meters, down 0.5% week-on-week [4][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the Ministry of Commerce and other departments support the issuance of REITs for commercial real estate, providing long-term financing support [4][27]. - Various local governments have introduced measures to stimulate housing demand, including purchase subsidies and adjustments to rental withdrawal ratios [4][30]. Company Performance - Several real estate companies reported weaker performance in Q3 2025, with notable declines in net profits for companies like New Town Holdings and China Overseas Development [4][33]. - The report highlights the successful listing of China Overseas Development's commercial REIT, which raised 1.58 billion yuan [4][33].

Group 1 - In October, the average price of new residential properties in 100 major cities in China increased by 2.67% year-on-year, reaching 16,973 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.28% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same cities decreased by 7.60% year-on-year, standing at 13,268 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decline of 0.84% [1] - Major cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Nanjing maintained high supply levels of new residential properties, with several real estate companies launching quality improvement projects during the "Eleventh" holiday, contributing to a structural increase in new home prices [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year" plan emphasizes promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, with short-term policies focusing on stabilizing the market and long-term strategies aimed at transforming the industry towards high-quality growth [2] - As the year-end approaches, real estate companies are expected to enter a performance sprint phase, with increased new supply in core cities likely to support new home sales, while second-hand home transaction volumes are anticipated to continue a moderate recovery [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the promotion of high-quality development in the real estate sector, highlighting its role in improving people's livelihoods [1] - A new model for real estate development is being established, which includes the implementation of current housing sales, reducing the risk of paying mortgages before properties are completed [1] - The supply of affordable housing is being optimized to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and various struggling families, expanding coverage beyond just low-income groups [1] - Policies will be tailored to increase the supply of improved housing, moving away from a one-size-fits-all approach to more targeted development [1] - The initiative aims to construct safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, with a focus on enhancing housing quality and property service standards [1] Group 2 - Policies related to mergers, bankruptcies, and land use are being improved to activate low-efficiency land, idle properties, and existing infrastructure [3] - There is a push for the efficient use of rural collective construction land and the activation of idle land and housing to support rural development [3] - The promotion of consumption mechanisms is being refined, indicating potential easing of restrictions on housing and automobile purchases to stimulate market activity [3] - A coordinated approach is being taken to address risks in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions to prevent systemic risks [3] Group 3 - The focus is on advancing a people-centered new urbanization strategy, facilitating the integration of agricultural migrants into urban areas [4] - Efforts are being made to modernize governance in mega cities and promote coordinated development among cities and towns [4] - The initiative aims to enhance urban infrastructure and public services while promoting sustainable and resilient urban development [4] - There is a commitment to advancing border town construction as part of the urbanization strategy [4]

Group 1: Economic and Financial Strategy - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," outlining systematic planning and strategic deployment for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year period [1] - The article emphasizes the integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, and expanding high-level opening-up [1][2] Group 2: Financial System Improvement - The article by Wang Jiang highlights seven key tasks for building a strong financial nation, including improving the central bank system and promoting healthy capital market development [2][3] - It stresses the need for financial institutions to focus on their main businesses and enhance governance, while also supporting state-owned financial institutions in serving the real economy [3][4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Management - The People's Bank of China aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to support high-quality financial development [6][7] - The article outlines the importance of adjusting monetary policy to match economic growth and price stability, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to short-term and long-term economic goals [7][8] Group 4: International Financial Center Development - The article discusses the continuous development of various financial markets in Shanghai to enhance its global competitiveness and influence [4][5] - It calls for strengthening the cross-border payment and clearing system for the Renminbi and expanding institutional openness in the financial sector [4] Group 5: Trade and Investment Expansion - The article by Wang Wentao emphasizes the significance of expanding high-level opening-up, including promoting trade innovation and enhancing the quality of foreign trade [10][11] - It outlines tasks such as increasing market access in service sectors and optimizing the free trade zone strategy to boost innovation and development [11][12] Group 6: Real Estate Market Development - The article by Ni Hong focuses on promoting sustainable and healthy development in the real estate market through reforms in development, financing, and sales systems [14][15] - It highlights the need for a multi-level housing security system and emphasizes the importance of local governments in adjusting real estate policies based on specific city conditions [15][16]

Core Perspective - The "15th Five-Year Plan" marks a significant shift in China's real estate policy, moving from a focus on rapid expansion to prioritizing high-quality development and improving people's livelihoods [1][3]. Group 1: New Positioning - The real estate sector's role has been redefined from a driver of economic growth to a stabilizer for people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for housing stability before quality [3]. - The new mechanism for high-quality development involves aligning housing supply with actual population demand, moving away from the previous rapid turnover model [3][4]. - The plan aims to dismantle unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption, indicating a more proactive approach to addressing housing needs [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Adjustments - The focus has shifted from merely increasing the quantity of affordable housing to enhancing its quality, with an emphasis on amenities and sustainability [4]. - The introduction of improvement housing in the plan reflects a response to real demand, with larger units becoming more prevalent in key cities [4][5]. - The strategy will involve tailored approaches to housing supply based on local demand, moving away from a one-size-fits-all model [4]. Group 3: New Operational Models - The plan emphasizes the need for a new development model, moving away from high-leverage land acquisition to a focus on operational efficiency [5]. - A new financing mechanism has been established to support reliable projects, with over 7 trillion yuan allocated for approved projects [5][6]. - The revitalization of existing properties and land through mergers and acquisitions is highlighted as a new growth area [5][6]. Group 4: Risk Management - The plan prioritizes risk management in real estate, establishing a comprehensive safety management system for properties throughout their lifecycle [6]. - Measures to ensure market stability include adjusting supply based on population trends and regulating the second-hand housing market to prevent price manipulation [6]. - The overarching goal is to return the industry to its fundamental purpose of addressing housing needs rather than speculative investment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future development of the real estate sector in China over the next five years, emphasizing the need for high-quality development as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 1: High-Quality Development - High-quality development is characterized by optimizing the supply of affordable housing and increasing the supply of improved housing based on local conditions [3][4]. - The focus on optimizing affordable housing supply aims to meet the basic housing needs of urban workers and various disadvantaged families [4][5]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality of housing supply by addressing scale, regional distribution, product structure, and quality [5]. Group 2: Institutional Improvement - The plan calls for the establishment of a new real estate development model and the improvement of basic systems for property development, financing, and sales [6][9]. - Specific measures include prohibiting investors from misappropriating funds before project delivery, establishing a financing coordination mechanism, and promoting the sale of existing homes [9]. Group 3: Quality Enhancement - The initiative aims to construct safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, with a focus on improving housing quality and property service standards [10][11]. - Standards for new homes will be raised, including increasing ceiling heights and improving sound insulation performance [10]. - Property services will evolve to include a broader range of support for residents, addressing diverse living needs [11].