Group 1 - Concerns over Trump's tariff policies and rising U.S. debt have led investors to question whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a safe haven asset for global investors [1][3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting rising government debt and interest payment ratios significantly higher than similar sovereign nations [3][4] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 12 basis points to 5.02%, while the 10-year yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.54% [1] Group 2 - The House Budget Committee approved Trump's tax and spending proposal, which is expected to increase the deficit by trillions, raising investor concerns about U.S. debt trends [4] - Moody's indicated that the current fiscal proposals are unlikely to lead to significant long-term reductions in spending and deficits [4] - The proportion of mandatory spending, including interest payments, is projected to rise from approximately 73% in 2024 to about 78% by 2035 [4] Group 3 - Despite heightened risk aversion, some analysts believe Moody's downgrade will not have a lasting impact on the market, as it was largely anticipated [5] - The cost of U.S. government debt default insurance, measured by five-year CDS rates, slightly increased to 55 basis points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, attributing it to rising budget deficits and concerns over U.S. economic policies, which may lead to increased volatility in financial markets [4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing the expansion of budget deficits and lack of signs of reduction [4]. - The downgrade is expected to heighten concerns in the U.S. sovereign bond market, potentially leading to a slowdown in the U.S. economy [4][6]. - Analysts predict that the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise by 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Rising U.S. Treasury yields could increase government interest expenses, complicating the government's ability to cut spending and potentially raising loan rates for mortgages and credit cards [7]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach nearly $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with expectations that it will rise to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [8]. - Despite the downgrade, some analysts believe it will not significantly impact Congress's voting behavior or lead to forced selling of U.S. Treasuries [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, gold prices opened higher, while U.S. stock index futures and oil prices experienced declines [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its lowest point since April, reflecting growing skepticism about the U.S. dollar amid rising Treasury yields [6]. - Foreign demand for U.S. government securities remains strong, indicating no immediate signs of aversion to U.S. debt despite recent concerns [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to potentially exceed 5%, reflecting a decrease in recession concerns and investor worries regarding the U.S. budget [1] Group 1: Yield Predictions - BlueBay Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Dowding, suggests that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has room to break above 5% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is considered reasonable at 4.5% but may rise higher [1] - There is a greater risk of long-term Treasury yields increasing [1]

智通财经5月16日电，美国10年期国债收益率跌10个基点，报4.44%。 ...

智通财经5月15日电，美国2两年期国债收益率下跌3.1个基点至4.019%；10年期国债收益率现跌1.6个基 点至4.510%。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline due to various pressures, including reduced safe-haven demand from improved US-China trade sentiment, decreased bets on Fed rate cuts, and rising US Treasury yields [1] - Despite short-term pressures, the fundamental outlook for gold remains strong, with ongoing geopolitical risks and central banks increasing gold reserves to diversify away from the dollar [1] - Technical indicators suggest a potential for a rebound, with the CCI entering oversold territory; if the Fed signals a dovish stance in upcoming meetings and geopolitical tensions escalate, gold prices could exceed $3200 [1] Group 2: Gold Trading Recommendations - Aggressive short positions suggested at $3176/$3181, with a more conservative approach at $3200/$3205, targeting a break below $3150 [3] - For long positions, aggressive entries at $3143/$3148 and conservative entries at $3125/$3130 are recommended, targeting a break above $3180 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Iranian leadership indicated a willingness to negotiate with the US under specific conditions, which could lead to the lifting of economic sanctions and potentially increase oil supply, putting downward pressure on oil prices [1] - Recent oil price movements showed a downward trend, with resistance at $63.5 and a drop to around $62.7, indicating a bearish medium-term outlook [1] Group 4: Oil Trading Recommendations - Aggressive short positions recommended at $60.9/$61.4, with conservative entries at $62.1/$62.6, targeting a break below $59.8 [5] - For long positions, aggressive entries at $59.0/$58.5 and conservative entries at $57.7/$57.2 are suggested, targeting a break above $62.0 [5]

Core Viewpoint - OCBC maintains its expectation of three rate cuts in 2023, each by 25 basis points, but delays the first cut from Q2 to Q3 due to the current economic conditions [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase in overall CPI decreasing from 2.4% to 2.3% [2]. - Housing prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to over half of the overall increase, while energy prices rose, offsetting declines in gasoline prices [2]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation in core services, while core goods prices have turned positive with a growth of 0.13% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which is above market expectations but not robust [3]. - The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a gradual easing of labor market tightness, with the job-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 1.02, suggesting potential impacts on unemployment if vacancies continue to decline [3]. Market Expectations - Market concerns about a U.S. recession have significantly eased, with the probability of recession dropping from 65% in early April to 38% currently [4]. - Interest rate futures reflect a cooling of rate cut expectations, with only 54 basis points of cuts priced in for the year, down from over 100 basis points in April [4]. - The expectation for a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting has been fully priced out, with only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [4]. Treasury Yield Predictions - OCBC has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields due to the delayed rate cut expectations and improved market sentiment, but maintains a medium-term outlook of moderate decline [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the U.S. economy is not in a full recession, there are clear signs of slowing growth and persistent core inflation [5]. - Future economic data will be closely monitored, particularly regarding labor market conditions and service inflation, which could trigger policy adjustments [5].

美国10年期国债收益率维持超过5.5个基点的涨幅，持稳于日高4.5244%附近。 两年期美债收益率涨超4.8个基点，刷新日高、逼近4.05%。 ...

机构：预计CPI将低于预期，使美联储在6月重启降息 金十数据5月13日讯，分析机构Tradingkey表示，市场一致预测4月份整体CPI同比增长2.4%，与3月份持 平。然而，CPI的四个主要组成部分中，只有食品显示出上涨的势头，但它只占总CPI的13.7%。所以我 们认为，4月份的通胀将低于市场共识。在这可能会增加美联储在6月份重启降息周期的可能性。因此， 我们预计美国股市将在数据公布后上涨，而美元指数和美国国债收益率将下跌。 ...

金十数据5月9日讯，SEB Research首席利率策略师Jussi Hiljanen在一份报告中说，美国国债收益率预计 将温和走高，尽管它们面临着对立力量，包括预期的政策降息与财政考虑、对美国政策的信任受到侵 蚀、估值缺乏吸引力以及投资者转向欧洲债券。预计未来几个月10年期美国国债收益率将接近4.50%， 略高于当前水平，并在2026年升至4.80%。 美国国债面临对立力量 ...