美联储的困境在于，它必须耐心等待，如果在关税引发的价格压力显现时已经降息，那么它不得不重新 采取激进的加息政策。但是，如果未来通胀并未出现而将利率持续维持在高位，则可能会对美国经济产 生冲击，并损害其劳动力市场。迄今为止，美国物价保持温和状态，价格上涨尚未出现，这让白宫更有 底气要求降息。 随着美国"大而美"税收与支出法案审议的推进，美国白宫在最近几周加大了对美联储及其主席鲍威尔的 抨击。美国总统特朗普要求立即降息，并威胁提前宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。这让本就受所 谓"对等关税"影响的美联储降息决策进一步政治化，给全球经济带来不确定性。 鲍威尔拒绝白宫提出的降息建议，主要是担心关税导致通胀重新抬头。鲍威尔是特朗普总统在第一任期 内任命的美联储主席，但是，2022年美联储错误判断了通胀形势，没有对物价上涨做出及时的加息决 定。现在，鲍威尔不想重蹈覆辙。这是因为，美国政府加征的关税反映到美国消费价格上可能会有传导 滞后效应，预计会体现在6月、7月和8月的数据之中。 特朗普表示将在未来几个月内提前宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。而这可能会被国际投资者解读为 央行失去独立性，美元的信用被大幅削弱。今年以来，美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is facing a prolonged period of high inflation influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors, which may gradually affect consumer expectations. The Federal Reserve should remain patient and avoid hasty interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Outlook - The price adjustments and the economy's adaptation to U.S. trade policies and new policy changes are expected to be a prolonged process, potentially lasting a year or more [1]. - There is a risk of a slow but sustained upward trend in inflation, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation [1]. Group 2: Labor Market and Monetary Policy - Despite a resilient labor market, with June job additions exceeding expectations and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, there are no signs of weakness that would prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates prematurely [1]. - Given the high uncertainty in employment, economic growth, and inflation trends, it is not the right time for significant adjustments to monetary policy [2].

波兰央行行长：如果数据允许，波兰在九月份降息的可能性是存在的。 ...

波兰央行行长：七月降息是一次谨慎的调整。 ...

美国6月非农就业报告超预期，新增就业人口14.7万人（市场共识11万人），失业率意外跌至4.1%（市场共识4.3%）。#行情 美元指数收复97。美债市场跳水，收益率飙升 ，其中2年期国债收益率领涨，上涨12个基点至3.90%。 7月降息的概率从数据前的20%降至零，目前市场不再认为9月降息板上钉钉。 ...

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：没有任何保证的决定，包括降息。 ...

据国际文传电讯社：俄罗斯央行最有可能在七月考虑降息。 ...

智通财经7月3日电，俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜称，通胀的放缓速度快于预期，尚未做出任何决定，包 括降息。 ...

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：尚未做出任何决定，包括降息。 ...

Group 1: Employment and Monetary Policy - JPMorgan expects the U.S. employment population to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, potentially reigniting concerns about economic growth [1] - Poor non-farm payroll data could pressure the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate-cutting timeline, as inflation remains distant from targets, necessitating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Market Sentiment - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates only 12% of respondents believe the U.S. fiscal deficit will significantly impact the market next year, suggesting that most market participants do not view the fiscal deficit as a major short-term concern [1] - Over time, more investors expect the fiscal deficit to have a significant market impact, with only 8% believing it will have no effect during this period [1] Group 3: Stablecoin and Treasury Demand - Citigroup argues that the growth of stablecoins will not significantly boost demand for U.S. Treasuries in the short term, as new stablecoins may come from existing bank deposits or money market funds, leading to no net increase in Treasury demand [2] - The stablecoin market is projected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, with potential incremental Treasury demand from cash reallocation and foreign deposits [2] Group 4: UK and Eurozone Economic Indicators - XTB analysts note increased volatility in UK government bond yields since 2022, attributed to high government debt levels, with a need for public spending to return to pre-pandemic levels to stabilize the bond market [3] - Eurozone's June services PMI and composite PMI data indicate the longest low-growth phase in 27 years, with new orders contracting for 13 consecutive months, reflecting weak domestic and external demand [3] Group 5: U.S. Treasury Supply and Economic Outlook - UBS Global Wealth Management reports that the supply of long-term U.S. Treasuries should remain manageable, despite concerns over increased issuance to finance federal debt [4] - Analysts express caution regarding potential rate cuts in the U.S., despite pressure from President Trump and disappointing employment data, suggesting that rate cuts may not effectively address current economic issues [4]