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ATFX策略师:黄金升至两周高点,或冲击3400美元关口
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 10:09
ATFX贵金属:现阶段,刺激黄金上涨的主要因素是美元指数。上周五,美元指数因为美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的鸽派发言而大跌,黄金 获得反向上涨动力,从最低点3321美元涨至最高3378美元。本周二,黄金延续涨势,最高触及3386美元,创出近两周新高,逼近3400美元整数关 口。 美国总统特朗普持续对美联储施压,逼迫后者按照自己的主张进行快节奏降息。为达到目的,特朗普不惜使用"各个击破"的方式,先是美联储票委 库格勒,现在是票委丽莎·库克,之后可能还有其他票委。特朗普虽然对美联储主席鲍威尔没有罢免的权利,但对于其他普通票委,有很多方式让他 们离职。 白宫和美联储不合,大概率造成美国宏观经济发展遇阻,美元指数的吸引力也将下降。如果美联储屈服于特朗普,那么从9月份开始,美联储将进入 快速降息通道,年内可能会有三次降息动作。市场提前消化预期,有可能导致美元指数在整个四季度维持弱势格局。 经济数据看,美国7月核心CPI年率为3.1%,高于前值2.9%,绝对值依旧处于2%~3%的温和通胀标准上方。如果美联储贸然重启降息,可能导致美 国物价失控,艰难控制住的高通胀问题有可能卷土重来。在此种预期之下,美联储每降息一次,美 ...
来不及了!2026年利率砍到3%,美联储降息也救不了美国经济?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 21:38
风暴前夜:美国经济在多重压力下步履蹒跚 在全球经济的舞台上,美国经济正如同走钢丝的杂技演员,在令人眩晕的高度上寻求平衡,而脚下则是深不 见底的衰退深渊。穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪,这位经济预测领域的资深人士,近来频繁发出警 示,他的声音如同穿透迷雾的灯塔,照亮了美国经济所面临的严峻现实。 赞迪通过LinkedIn发布了一项基于复杂机器学习模型的预测,如同掷地有声的判决:未来12个月内,美国经 济陷入衰退的概率高达49%。这个数字并非空穴来风,而是建立在对当前经济运行状况的深入剖析之上。早 在之前,赞迪就已敏锐地指出,美国经济正"处于衰退边缘",如今,超过半数的行业已启动裁员,这一现象 与历史上的经济衰退前兆高度吻合,如同乌云汇聚,预示着暴风雨即将来临。 在赞迪的预测中,2025年末至2026年初将是美国经济最为脆弱的时刻。他认为,特朗普政府时期所推行的关 税和移民限制政策,其负面影响将在此时达到顶峰。这些政策如同悬在经济头顶的两把达摩克利斯之剑:关 税抬高了进口商品的价格,增加了企业的运营成本,最终转嫁到消费者身上;而移民限制则加剧了劳动力短 缺,使得企业难以找到合适的员工,从而影响了生产和扩张。两者 ...
中方发表涉美重磅报告
中国基金报· 2025-08-17 09:42
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the distortion of human rights in the U.S. under the collusion of power and capital, turning human rights into tools for political spectacle and bargaining chips in a power casino, deviating from the core values and essential requirements of human rights [1][9]. Section Summaries Introduction - The report serves as a critical examination of the real state of human rights in the U.S. during a politically charged election year, marked by party conflicts and social divisions [4]. American Democracy: A Game of Money and Power - The total expenditure for the 2024 U.S. election cycle exceeds $15.9 billion, setting a new record for campaign spending [4]. - Political parties manipulate electoral rules to suppress voter turnout, with 24 states passing restrictive voting laws that disproportionately affect minorities and low-income voters [4]. Welfare of the People: Struggles of the Underprivileged - High inflation exacerbates wealth inequality, with over 40 million people living in poverty and 13.5% of households facing food shortages [5]. - The number of homeless individuals has increased by 18.1% compared to 2023, reaching over 700,000, the highest since 2007 [5]. Racism: Shackles of Minority Ethnic Groups - Systemic racism persists in the U.S., with African Americans three times more likely to be shot by police than whites [7]. - Environmental racism is a growing concern, with waste facilities disproportionately located in minority communities [7]. Vulnerable Groups: The Helplessness of Women and Children - The U.S. has not ratified key international conventions on women's and children's rights, leading to widespread gender discrimination and violence [8]. - The number of illegal child laborers has reached the highest level in decades, with many immigrant children at risk of exploitation [8]. The Fatal Journey: The Tragedy of Undocumented Immigrants - Humanitarian crises at the U.S. border continue to worsen, with immigrants facing torture and inhumane treatment [2]. - The number of immigrant deaths at the southern border has increased significantly, from 72 in 2022 to 168 in 2024 [8]. American Hegemony: A Nightmare for Human Rights in Other Countries - The U.S. engages in unilateralism and hegemonic practices, violating international laws and threatening global peace and development [3].
国际金融市场早知道:8月4日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 05:37
Group 1: Employment and Economic Indicators - The latest non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Labor Department shows a significant decline, with July's unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, and only 73,000 new jobs added, below the expected 110,000 [1] - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, with stagnating consumer spending and shrinking construction and manufacturing sectors, indicating potential job market weakness [2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly dropped to 48, marking a nine-month low, primarily due to decreasing orders and worsening employment conditions [3] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Policies - A report from Yale University indicates that the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934, as U.S. tariff policies continue to evolve [1] - The OPEC statement reveals that eight major oil-producing countries will increase production by an average of 547,000 barrels per day in September [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Resilience - The European Banking Authority (EBA) reports that EU banks are sufficiently resilient to withstand economic shocks from geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, with no banks violating core capital requirements [5]
穆迪首席经济学家:美国经济正处于衰退边缘
news flash· 2025-08-03 22:31
Core Viewpoint - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that the US economy is on the brink of recession due to a series of weak economic data and stagnation in consumer spending [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show economic stagnation, with consumer spending at a standstill and declines in construction and manufacturing sectors [1] - Employment is expected to weaken, with signs of a significant freeze in hiring and a reduction in average working hours [1] Inflation and Policy Impact - High inflation complicates potential policy support from the Federal Reserve, impacting overall economic stability [1] - Zandi attributes much of the current economic slowdown to policy choices in Washington, including tariffs that erode corporate profits and household purchasing power [1] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate remains low primarily due to stagnant labor growth, a decrease in immigrant labor, and a declining labor participation rate [1] - The reduction in immigration limits the overall growth potential of the economy [1]
凯德(北京)投资基金管理有限公司:美联储高官警告:高通胀或持续一年,降息需耐心
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 10:50
Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic signals a prolonged period of high inflation in the U.S., suggesting that businesses may take a year or longer to adapt to changes in trade policies, which provides a basis for the Fed to delay interest rate cuts [1] - The June non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 106,000, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1% [3] - A structural analysis reveals that the public sector added 73,000 jobs in June, with state and local education contributing 64,000, while the private sector only added 74,000 jobs, indicating a disparity in the labor market [3] Group 2 - Bostic warns that current inflationary pressures differ from traditional models, driven by trade policy adjustments and geopolitical risks, leading to a steady and persistent upward trend in prices [3] - The market's expectations for a policy shift have been impacted, with the probability of maintaining interest rates in July exceeding 95%, and expectations for rate cuts in the year reduced from three to two [5] - The economic landscape is characterized by contradictions, with nominal wage growth at 5.1% supporting consumption, while real wages have experienced negative growth for four consecutive months, eroding purchasing power [5] Group 3 - The Fed's cautious stance reflects the difficulty in balancing policy amid resilient yet fragile economic data, as businesses exhaust their ability to avoid price increases and the long-term effects of trade policy adjustments remain unclear [8] - Market attention is shifting towards the fall, awaiting more signals on inflation trends and the labor market to determine if September could mark a turning point for interest rate cuts [8]
7月4日汇市晚评:日本央行量化紧缩计划遭反对 美元/日元仍承压于145下方
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-04 10:35
Currency Market Overview - The Euro is fluctuating around 1.1760 against the US Dollar, while the British Pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is under pressure, remaining below 145.00, and the Australian Dollar is consolidating below 0.6600 [1] - The Canadian Dollar has dropped to around 1.3570, approaching an eight-month low of approximately 1.3540 [1] Key Developments in the US Dollar - President Trump announced that a tariff letter will be issued on Friday, with a floating range of 10%-70%, effective from August 1 [2] - US non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to abandon bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [2] - Federal Reserve's Bostic noted that the labor market remains healthy, and the US economy may experience prolonged high inflation [2] Developments in Major Non-USD Currencies - ECB official Demarco stated that the Euro will not replace the Dollar as a reserve currency [3] - Japan's FY2025 wage growth forecast has been revised down to 5.25%, remaining above 5% for two consecutive years [3] - The Bank of England's survey indicates that UK businesses have lowered their wage growth expectations for the year [3] - ECB's Lagarde emphasized the need to improve the economy to enhance the Euro's global standing [3] Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD is trading above bullish moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1570 [6] - The Australian Dollar/USD has broken through a multi-week range, indicating an upward trend, with key support at 0.6540-0.6530 [7] - The Dollar/Canadian Dollar has faced resistance near the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes Switzerland's June adjusted unemployment rate and the Eurozone's May PPI [8]
美国或面临长期高通胀 黄金行情维持区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-04 02:57
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations around $3,330, with the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations but failing to push gold prices lower. The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in July have slowed, which is not favorable for gold prices to break upward. The short-term outlook for gold remains within a range of fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The recent non-farm payroll data showed that new job additions exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1%, indicating a generally healthy labor market without signs of deterioration that would necessitate preemptive rate cuts [2]. - Federal Reserve official Bostic indicated that high inflation in the U.S. may persist for an extended period, potentially affecting consumer psychology and requiring businesses to adapt to changing trade and policy conditions over a year or more [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices initially rebounded before declining, reaching a high of $3,365 and a low of $3,311 on the day of the non-farm data release. The daily closing price was below $3,325, suggesting that as long as the price does not break below $3,300, there is potential for an upward movement. The four-hour chart indicates a range-bound market, while the hourly chart shows a bearish trend [3].
KVB PRIME:观望就好!美国或将经历“更长时间的高通胀”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 01:13
Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Atlanta Fed President Bostic highlight a cautious approach towards U.S. economic policy amid uncertainty, advocating for patience and a wait-and-see strategy to avoid detrimental adjustments in interest rate policy [1][3]. Economic Policy and Uncertainty - Bostic emphasized that making significant adjustments to monetary policy in the current uncertain environment is unwise, noting that the resilience of the U.S. macroeconomy provides a buffer for policymakers [3]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged this year, indicating a wait for more key economic signals before making decisions [3]. Tariff Policy and Inflation - Bostic is particularly focused on the impact of tariff policies, suggesting that price increases due to tariffs may manifest gradually rather than as a sudden spike, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations over time [4]. - He warned that if his assessment is correct, the U.S. economy could face prolonged high inflation pressures, which would pose significant challenges for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [4]. Labor Market Observations - Despite a positive employment report for June, Bostic noted subtle changes in the labor market, such as a slowdown in hiring, indicating a gradual softening of the labor market [4]. - He strongly advised the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remain patient and wait for clearer economic conditions before making decisions to avoid unnecessary market volatility [4]. Government Debt Concerns - Bostic pointed out that the rising U.S. government debt levels will have significant implications for policymakers, as high debt servicing costs could crowd out resources for other important economic activities [5]. - He highlighted that the recently passed tax and spending bill could increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over ten years, raising concerns about the potential impact on fiscal policy and interest rates [5]. - Bostic expressed worry that if financial markets perceive the U.S. government debt as a rising risk, interest rates may move independently of Federal Reserve policy, creating substantial challenges for monetary policy formulation [5].
美联储高官继续警告:现在观望就好!美国或将经历“更长时间的高通胀”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-04 00:31
Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes the need for patience in economic policy amid uncertainty, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach can prevent policy reversals on interest rates [1] - Bostic notes that the macroeconomic resilience provides space for maintaining patience, especially as Fed officials await the impact of tariffs and regulatory changes on the economy [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two cuts by 2025, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The June employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a rate cut in July [2] - Bostic acknowledges signs of softening in the labor market, including a slowdown in hiring, but asserts that the job market has not deteriorated [2] - The potential impact of rising U.S. government debt levels on decision-making is highlighted, with concerns that debt servicing costs may crowd out other activities, affecting prices and employment in a substantial way [2]