截至发稿时，Wind数据显示，现货黄金报4000.49美元/盎司，涨0.41%，年初至今涨幅超50%。 10月7日早些时候，COMEX黄金期货已经站上4000美元/盎司的新高位。截至7日收盘，COMEX黄金期 货涨0.71%，报4004.80美元/盎司，日内交投区间为3963.40—4014.60美元。 本轮黄金上涨是在美元持续走低的大背景下，美国联邦政府"停摆"，以及市场猜测美联储即便通胀仍高 企也将继续降息，推动了黄金的持续走高，亿万富豪瑞·达利欧表示，黄金"肯定"比美元更具安全避风 港作用，并且黄金创纪录的涨势与上世纪七十年代的情况类似，当时黄金在高通胀和经济不稳定的背景 下出现飙升。 10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次站上4000美元整数关口，再创历史新高。 （原标题：涨疯了！现货黄金，突破4000美元！） 责编：叶舒筠 校对：刘榕枝 综合自：智通财经、e公司 ...

美联储卡什卡利（非今年票委）周二警告称，任何大幅降息都有引发通胀的风险。卡什卡利表示，"你 可能会看到经济出现高通胀。基本上，如果你试图推动经济增长的速度超过其潜在增长速度和产生价格 的潜力，那么最终只会导致物价全面上涨。"他警告说，鉴于经济增长正在放缓，通胀仍在持续，目前 的经济数据显示出一些滞胀的迹象。 ...

美联储卡什卡利：如果美联储大幅降息，预计经济将出现一轮高通胀。 来源：滚动播报 ...

羊吃草，谁善谁恶？有些事站在任何角度来说都对，有时候甚至不知道该站在哪里！ 9月非农数据本该今晚公布，因政府人员休假导致延迟，2018-19年也因为政府停摆，劳工部统计因资金问题导致推后公布，这一次非农也可能在10日之间择 时公布。 狼吃羊，是善还是恶？对狼是善，对羊是恶。所以，无善也无恶。 你用慈悲看世人，世人尽是可怜人，你用因果看世人，世上无一可怜人。 黄金大涨，是善还是恶？对多头而言是善，对空头而言是恶。 善恶皆是对己而言，对己有利便是善，对己无利便是恶。 国庆放假，美国政府也"休假"，上一次美国政府停摆时长时间35天依旧是特朗普执政期间，这一次自10月1日美国政府同样因拨款法案。 1小时，整体陷入高位震荡行情，两次冲击3900美元没有突破，昨天美盘出现快速的下跌，一次性跌到位后就结束，没有再延续下跌，关键还在于今天会不 会持续走弱击穿昨晚的支撑位，一旦破位就得注意。 另外，处于这样的高位就不要再激进的布局所谓的中长线，而是短线博弈即可，不是对上涨没信心，而是上涨过程中伴随的急跌，一旦不设止损就会遭遇暴 击。 今天，我认为暂时在3875-3725美金区间内按震荡对待，在这个区间多空都没错，主要卡区间位置 ...

美联储古尔斯比：美国中西部的企业领袖们对重回高通胀环境表示担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of overbought conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields, which have led to an increase in the U.S. dollar index, thereby exerting downward pressure on gold [2][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including GDP, initial jobless claims, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance high inflation risks with a weakening labor market [2] - Powell acknowledged the rising risks in the labor market and inflation, stating that monetary policy remains moderately restrictive but capable of addressing potential economic developments [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at 3715 and 3680, and resistance levels at 3780 and 3800 [4]

Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by conflicting views: one advocating for more stimulus measures and the other indicating a strong but mature economic cycle [1] - Private sector spending is growing at the fastest rate in 20 years, suggesting that additional stimulus may not be necessary [2] - High inflation rates are stabilizing at a 30-year high, impacting the perception of nominal growth [2] Group 2 - The rapid investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could enhance productivity and extend the economic cycle, although there are risks of misallocation of funds [3] - Fiscal and monetary policies are not overly tight, with significant fiscal easing being implemented since 2010 [3] - Tariffs are causing macroeconomic fluctuations, but high nominal growth may continue to benefit risk assets [4] Group 3 - Inflation-driven growth may lead to rising interest rates, particularly if governments continue to accumulate deficits without addressing debt through high inflation [4] - The bond market may eventually require higher risk compensation for fiscal policies, potentially steepening the yield curve [4] - Investors should prepare for a shift from the current economic environment by diversifying portfolios and ensuring flexibility to capture investment opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on the matter [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [2][10]. - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management decision," indicating that the Fed believes its policies have been on the right track this year [6][19]. - The recent adjustment comes amid a backdrop of significant downward revisions in non-farm employment data, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs, highlighting the economic challenges faced [7][19]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The meeting was described as a "showdown" between the Federal Reserve and the White House, with Powell managing to maintain internal unity despite the political climate [9][10]. - The vote reflected a temporary victory for the Fed's independence, as the majority of members supported the rate cut despite potential pressures from Trump [10][12]. - The only dissenting vote came from a newly appointed member who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating ongoing divisions within the Fed [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rate cut is seen as a preventive measure to safeguard economic growth before a potential recession, with Powell acknowledging signs of a weakening job market [18][19]. - Historical precedents for preventive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the current economic trajectory [21][26]. - Analysts express concerns that the current economic issues stem from rising costs rather than insufficient demand, suggesting that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The September FOMC meeting highlighted the risks of employment slowdown and raised the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious but dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Economic Predictions - The FOMC's statement emphasized the risks of employment decline, removing the phrase "labor market remains robust" and adding concerns about "slowing job growth" and "increased risks to employment" [2]. - Economic forecasts were improved, with GDP projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 raised, while the unemployment rate for 2026 and 2027 was slightly lowered. The core PCE forecast for 2026 was also increased [2]. Interest Rate Projections - The dot plot indicated an increase in the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 from 2 to 3, with further divergence in future expectations among FOMC members [2]. - The FOMC members anticipate 2 more cuts this year, 1 cut in 2026, and 2 cuts in 2027, reflecting increasing internal disagreement [2]. Powell's Statements - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating no need for a significant reduction at this time and emphasizing that future decisions will depend on data [3]. - Powell noted that while the unemployment rate remains low, it has begun to rise, attributing the slowdown in job growth to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation, as well as potential impacts from AI [3]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock markets showed mixed results, with gold prices declining. The market reacted to Powell's cautious tone regarding future rate cuts and the balance between employment and inflation targets [4]. - CME data indicated increased market confidence in two more rate cuts this year, although expectations for cuts in 2026 were pushed back [4]. Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. **Soft Landing Scenario**: The U.S. economy achieves a soft landing without major recession or stagflation, with two more cuts this year and three in 2025, influenced by political pressures [5][6]. 2. **Recession Scenario**: A significant economic downturn occurs, leading to a sharp rise in unemployment or a stock market crash, prompting the Fed to implement substantial cuts [5]. 3. **High Inflation Scenario**: A historic high inflation or stagflation situation forces the Fed to prioritize inflation control, maintaining high rates for an extended period [6]. - The soft landing scenario is considered the base case with the highest probability, while the recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as less likely at this time [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds target rate, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations for two more cuts in 2025 [1][8] - The FOMC statement highlighted the risks of slowing employment growth, removing previous language indicating a solid labor market, and introducing concerns about downside risks to employment [1][8] - Economic projections were adjusted, with GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being raised, while unemployment rates for 2026 and 2027 were slightly lowered [9][10] Group 2 - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating that there was no need for a significant reduction in rates and that future rate paths remain uncertain [2][13] - Powell noted that while the unemployment rate is still low, it has begun to rise, and employment growth is slowing due to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation [2][13] - Inflation expectations were adjusted, with Powell suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be temporary, although there are still concerns about persistent inflation risks [2][13] Group 3 - Market reactions included a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and mixed performance in the stock market, reflecting the cautious tone of Powell regarding future rate cuts [3][14] - Following the FOMC announcement, market confidence in two additional rate cuts this year increased, with the probability of the federal funds rate reaching a range of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end rising to 79.9% [15][16] Group 4 - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. Soft landing scenario, predicting two more cuts this year and three in 2026, with a stable economic outlook [4][19] 2. Recession scenario, where significant economic deterioration could lead to a larger cut of 50 basis points [4][19] 3. High inflation scenario, where persistent high inflation would necessitate maintaining higher rates for a longer period [4][19] - The soft landing scenario is considered the most likely, while the probabilities for recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as lower [20]