A股成交金额的突破是市场活跃度提升的直观体现。400万亿元的年成交额，意味着市场交易频繁，资 金流动活跃，众多投资者积极参与其中。无论是个人投资者还是机构投资者，都在这个市场中寻找着投 资机会。 活跃的市场氛围，为各类企业提供了更广阔的融资渠道，有助于企业获得资金支持，实现业务拓展和技 术创新，进而推动实体经济的发展。同时，交投高度活跃也吸引了更多国际投资者的目光，提升了A股 市场在全球资本市场的地位和影响力。 指数的慢牛走势则是市场健康发展的有力证明。与过去大起大落的行情不同，慢牛走势表明市场更加稳 定和成熟。指数的稳步上升，反映出上市公司的整体质量在不断提升，盈利能力在不断增强。在良好的 市场环境下，优质企业能够脱颖而出，获得投资者的青睐，而劣质企业则逐渐被市场淘汰，从而形成了 一个优胜劣汰的良性循环。 A股历史上首次年成交额超过400万亿元。2025年，A股市场实现了指数与成交额双增长，指数走出慢 牛，成交量创出历史新高，这是A股投资价值的重要体现，意味着越来越多的投资者认可买入并长期持 股的价值投资理念。 从每日的成交资金流向来看，绩优蓝筹股的成交集中度相比以往更高。这意味着资金对于业绩优秀、高 分红 ...

I analyze securities based on value investing, an owner's mindset, and a long-term horizon. I don't write sell articles, as those are considered short theses, and I never recommend shorting.I was initially interested in a career in politics, but after reaching a dead-end in 2019 and seeing the financial drain this posed, I choose a path that would make my money work for me and protect me from more setbacks. This brought me to study value investing, in order to grow wealth with risk management in mind.From 2 ...

2025 年，资本市场仍处于复杂波动的周期之中，投资者如何在进攻与防守之间找到平衡，实现稳健穿越？在 2025 年雪球嘉年华主会场的压轴环 节，雪球副总裁张舒冰、丹书铁券投资经理陈俊涛、黑森投资创始人周涛，围绕价值投资在当下的实践与挑战，展开了一场深入而开放的思辨。 价值陷阱的识别与规避 张舒冰： 长期低估背后可能有深层原因，两位如何区分价值与价值陷阱？持仓过程中遇到过最大的价值陷阱误判是什么？后续做了哪些迭代优化？ 低估与确定性的抉择 张舒冰： 确定性往往意味着市场高度共识和较好的流动性，低估则意味着悲观和分歧。当二者无法两全时，两位如何决策？能否结合过往案例分 享？ 陈俊涛： 低估和确定性并不矛盾，很多时候是相辅相成的，投资最好选择同时具备这两大特质的标的。 2021 年初，中国核心资产被剔除出美国证券交易标的时，就出现了既低估又有确定性的标的，以通信行业某龙头公司为例，当时其市值不到 7000 亿港币，却拥有 4000 亿左右的现金及现金等价物，每年盈利达 1000 亿，既具备低估属性，又有明确的价值支撑。 周涛： 价值投资倾向于在仔细研究和耐心等待过程中，捕捉低估且确定性高的机会。但多数时间里，不是每 ...

近日，华创证券研究所所长、大消费组组长董广阳在雪球嘉年华上，针对消费行业及白酒板块分享了最 新研判。 与但斌对白酒短期承压、人口结构等变量表示谨慎的观点不同，董广阳从消费基本面、行业周期与龙头 价值等角度，提出了其对白酒板块的观察与侧重。 董广阳团队曾多次上榜新财富最佳分析师，在消费行业里深耕多年，我们较为认可他们对于消费板块的 观点。本文，研究院梳理了董广阳发言的关键要点，为投资者提供另一重视角的思考。 以下为概括内容： 一、消费行业有自身周期规律 董广阳首先对于当下消费行业，进行了总体性判断。 董广阳提及，他与很多投资者交流，大家担忧中国是否会持续类通缩、消费是否还有机会。 对此，他想说的是，不管是否通缩、经济环境如何，消费行业有自身的发展周期规律，这与行业技术发 展特点、时代技术背景相关，不会因经济增长快慢而改变。 中国过去三四十年凭借体制优势和后发优势，完成了西方工业国家200年的现代化、工业化进程。 回顾过去，每十年就是一套新模式、新玩法、新玩家，少部分企业穿越周期并实现新增长，大部分企业 则被洗牌。穿越的企业主要是白酒头部企业以及其他消费品领域的少数头部企业。 对此，董广阳把中国消费市场发展阶段做 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape is shifting, with Howard Marks emphasizing that avoiding losses is more crucial than chasing high returns, particularly in the current market environment characterized by speculative behavior in AI, Bitcoin, and gold [1][3]. Investment Behavior - Current investors are exhibiting extreme behavior, heavily investing in AI and cryptocurrencies, often forgetting the harsh reality that significant losses require even greater gains to recover [3][5]. - Marks draws parallels between the current AI hype and the internet bubble of 1998-2000, highlighting that while both technologies have transformative potential, the profit-making logic of AI is not as clear-cut as that of the internet [3][5]. Asset Analysis - Marks critiques gold and Bitcoin as assets lacking cash flow support, stating their prices are driven by market sentiment rather than intrinsic value. He notes that an investment in gold from 2010 to 2025 would yield an annualized return of only 7.7%, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 12.7% [5][6]. Investment Strategy - For ordinary investors, Marks suggests focusing on high-yield bonds, which currently offer around 7% returns without taking excessive risks. He emphasizes the value of certainty over the allure of high returns [6][11]. - Marks advocates for a long-term investment approach, where avoiding significant losses can lead to overall success, as demonstrated by historical performance data [11][13]. Decision-Making Philosophy - Marks' investment philosophy, established in the 1990s, revolves around the idea that avoiding deep losses is more effective than striving for the highest returns. He believes that in an era of information overload, a more measured approach can yield better results [9][11]. - He advises investors to assess their risk tolerance on a scale from 0 to 100, adjusting their strategies based on age and market conditions, rather than blindly following popular trends [13][20]. Team Dynamics - The success of Oak Tree Capital is attributed to the strong partnership between Marks and his long-time collaborator, Bruce, who complement each other's skills and maintain a collaborative decision-making process without bureaucratic delays [16][18]. - Their ability to act decisively during market downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, showcases their investment acumen and willingness to capitalize on opportunities [16][18]. Life and Investment Balance - Marks emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced life, suggesting that a calm and rational mindset contributes to better investment decisions. He believes that a long-term perspective is essential in navigating market fluctuations [20].

2025年即将收官，首批成立的26只浮动费率基金也陆续交出阶段性答卷。作为费率改革的核心试点，这批产品以"业绩绑定管理费"的创新模式打破传统"旱 涝保收"格局，本应成为行业高质量发展的标杆。 不过现实却是，虽其中多数产品均实现了正收益，但仍有少数基金交出了一份刺眼的"负分答卷"。如广发基金旗下的广发价值稳进混合，截至目前，该基金 A/C类份额成立以来分别亏损7.11%和7.35%，在26只产品中排名垫底，与收益率冠军形成了近70个百分点的首尾差距。 那么，这只承载着市场期待的创新产品，为何沦为"差等生"？背后是基金经理14年投研经验的失效，还是老牌公募规模导向下的必然结果？就让我们来一探 究竟。 公开资料显示，广发价值稳进混合由基金经理王明旭担纲，其现任广发基金总经理助理、投资管理部总经理。在发行之初，曾以任职总回报为127.92%，年 化回报13.27%的成绩，叠加涵盖保险资管、专户投资等多领域的14年从业经历，成为首批浮动费率基金拟任经理中的"明星选手"。 而2025年的A股市场呈现鲜明的结构性特征，人工智能、高端制造等科技成长板块成为绝对主线，传统消费、金融地产等价值板块持续承压。更致命的是， 这些重仓 ...

产品设计层面，中证红利质量ETF(159209)费用模式采用"0.15%+0.05%"的全市场最低档 ，长期持有具备 明显的成本优势；分红模式采用月度评估分红机制，能更好地满足投资者的现金流需求，提升持有体验。 12月23日，数据显示，截至11时21分，"高质量红利"中证红利质量ETF(159209)涨0.68%，盘中冲击五连升 冲击历史新高；资金热度不减，据Wind Level2实时行情结合均价预估，盘中净流入超200万，截至发稿， 该基金获资金连续7日净流入。 据了解，中证红利质量ETF(159209)跟踪的中证全指红利质量指数选取 50 只分红稳定、股息率较高且盈利 持续性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映具有较强分红和盈利能力特征的上市公司证券的整体表 现。区别于传统高股息，其当前持仓并不含有银行股。以"红利+质量"双因子筛选机制筛选出兼具"低估 值"+"高质量"双重护城河的优质企业。其核心理念与巴菲特"以合理价格投资卓越企业"的价值投资逻辑高 度契合。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

展望后市，中泰证券认为，在低利率、资产荒的背景下，能够提供稳定现金回报的高股息、强现金流类资产，其配置价值日益凸显。这一需 求在险资等中长期资金积极入市、强化资产负债匹配的推动下，或将得到进一步巩固。 中金公司认为，进入12月下旬，红利资产也可能凸显防御价值。沪深300指数动态市盈率接近历史均值，估值与此前牛市高点比还有充分扩张 空间，中国股票牛市或尚未结束。 价值投资，选择"价值"！价值ETF（510030）紧密跟踪上证180价值指数，该指数以上证180指数为样本空间，从中选取价值因子评分最高的60 只股票作为样本股。上证180价值指数成份股均为"低估值+高股息"大盘蓝筹股，包括中国平安、招商银行、工商银行等金融板块龙头股，以 及基建、资源等板块龙头股，成份股股息率高，在波动行情中具有较好的防御属性。 高股息风格个股今日（12月23日）表现强劲，聚焦"高股息+低估值"大盘蓝筹股的价值ETF（510030）盘中突然拉升，场内价格最高涨 0.91%，截至发稿，涨0.73%。 成份股方面，保险、石化、电力等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，中国石油、华电国际双双大涨超2%，中国人保、中国铝业、中国平安 等多股跟涨超 ...

2024年中央经济工作会议明确提出开展"人工智能+"行动，并将AI定位为引领新质生产力发展的核心驱 动力。 今年以来，从人民网披露的内容生产、港口运维到基层医疗，AI技术正加速从实验室走向产业端，尤 其在基础设施和硬科技领域，而赋能千行百业的"AI+"商业化落地则进一步已成为行业共识。 站在全新的大背景与大趋势之下，作为AI赋能基建赛道的标杆企业诺比侃，今日正式登陆港交所，备 受市场关注。而其背后的核心投资人博将资本，以精准的价值判断与深度产业赋能，再次印证了VC/PE 在科技投资中所主导的核心价值。 按今日开盘价319.8港元计算，诺比侃对应总市值约121.9亿港元，博将资本的最初投资回报倍数约为 47.8倍。 挖掘"AI+基建"风口：博将资本或成诺比侃港股上市的主要受益者 诺比侃深耕AI领域的企业，其竞争力精准的契合了VC/PE的核心关注点。 首先，在赛道卡位上，它聚焦交通、能源、城市治理三大硬基建场景，按2024年收入计，位列中 国"AI+供电检测监测系统"第二、"轨道交通AI+检测监测解决方案"第三，是少数实现AI技术在国铁、 电网规模化落地的企业。 其次，在技术层面，诺比侃自主研发的NBK-INTA ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversial topic of "stop-loss" strategies in investing, highlighting a recent paper by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that quantifies the effects of stop-loss through Monte Carlo simulations, suggesting that stop-loss may lead to more losses rather than preventing them [1][2]. Group 1: Key Findings from the Paper - The paper presents a graph showing that without stop-loss, the return distribution follows a normal distribution, peaking at slight losses, while implementing a 10% stop-loss increases the probability of positive returns but also creates a peak of losses at the stop-loss threshold, termed "Dirac Mass" [5]. - In a market with an annualized volatility of 20-25%, there is a 50% probability of hitting the 10% stop-loss, which is higher than most investors expect. For A-shares, particularly small-cap and tech stocks, the probability can reach 85% [5]. - Stop-loss is likened to insurance against catastrophic losses but alters the probability distribution of returns, leading to several recommendations: fixed stop-loss percentages below 20% are ineffective against random noise, and stop-loss levels should consider market volatility [6][7]. Group 2: Practical Issues with Stop-Loss - The first issue is how to minimize the damage caused by stop-loss, which can be seen as an expensive insurance policy that does not save poorly thought-out investments [11]. - The second issue involves trading in a non-trending, volatile market, where even experienced traders can incur significant losses due to psychological pressures and frequent stop-loss triggers [12]. - The third issue is the impact of high leverage on stop-loss effectiveness, where the probability of permanent losses increases, making stop-loss strategies more critical but also more damaging [13]. Group 3: Perspectives on Stop-Loss for Different Investor Types - Value investors, like Warren Buffett, generally oppose stop-loss strategies, believing that price declines can represent buying opportunities rather than triggers for selling [17]. - Retail investors may benefit from stop-loss strategies due to their ability to quickly adjust positions, but they often struggle with emotional trading and information asymmetry, leading to frequent losses [20][21]. - The psychological barrier of not wanting to realize losses can be addressed through techniques like "mental stop-loss," which encourages investors to reassess their positions without the emotional burden of past decisions [26].