Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the inherent risks of financial bubbles and the importance of understanding the underlying value of investments, warning against the dangers of following market trends without due diligence [2][6]. Group 1: Financial Bubbles - Historical examples illustrate how quickly asset prices can rise and fall, leading to significant losses for investors who do not understand the market dynamics [2][4]. - The tulip mania of 1636 is cited as a classic case where prices soared to the equivalent of $25,000 to $30,000 per bulb, only to crash, leaving many investors in financial ruin [4][5]. - The article highlights that all financial bubbles ultimately trend towards zero, with most participants losing not only paper profits but also their principal investments [6][5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors often succumb to herd mentality, which can lead to irrational decision-making and increased risk exposure [6][10]. - The article references Newton's loss during the South Sea Bubble, illustrating that even the most knowledgeable investors can fall victim to market madness [6][10]. - It stresses the importance of maintaining a cautious approach and avoiding the temptation to chase after fleeting market trends [7][12]. Group 3: Investment Principles - The article outlines four key cognitive tools for successful investing: long-term thinking, independent thinking, risk awareness, and equity mindset [8][13]. - Long-term thinking is crucial for compounding returns, but investors must be patient and resilient against short-term volatility [9][10]. - Independent thinking helps investors avoid the pitfalls of following the crowd, while risk awareness ensures that potential losses are considered before making investment decisions [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of four key cognitive tools for successful investing: long-term thinking, independent thinking, risk awareness, and equity thinking, which correspond to patience, skepticism, caution, and original intention respectively [1][7]. Group 1: Long-term Thinking - Long-term thinking is essential for achieving compound interest, which can be interrupted by various factors, leading to a loss of investment momentum [2]. - The early stages of compound interest accumulation can be misleading and slow, making it easy for investors to give up [2]. - Investors often struggle to understand "tail events," which are rare but impactful occurrences that can significantly influence investment outcomes [3]. - The accumulation of compound interest requires enduring market volatility, which is an unavoidable aspect of financial markets [4]. Group 2: Independent Thinking - The article highlights the prevalence of herd mentality in the stock market, which can lead to impulsive investment decisions [5]. - It encourages investors to cultivate a habit of skepticism and not to blindly trust third-party information or conclusions [5]. Group 3: Risk Awareness - Investors often exhibit cognitive biases such as over-optimism and linear thinking, which can lead to reckless behavior, especially during prosperous times [6]. - The article cites a common saying in the investment community that emphasizes the rarity of investors who are both bold and prudent [6]. Group 4: Equity Thinking - Equity thinking is described as the foundational mindset for value investing, requiring investors to view their stocks as ownership stakes in companies [7]. - This mindset encourages investors to engage deeply with the companies they invest in, potentially influencing company governance and growth [7]. - The article concludes that possessing equity thinking allows investors to patiently await value growth while maintaining skepticism and caution [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in market trends since early July, highlighting the underperformance of bank stocks compared to technology sectors like communications and semiconductors, which have seen substantial gains [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Before July, bank stocks had the highest gains among all sectors, with a peak increase of over 22%, but have since dropped to a 6.8% increase [3]. - The author reflects on the missed opportunity of reallocating investments from bank stocks to technology stocks during this period, which could have resulted in higher returns [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes the importance of a dividend and equity mindset, suggesting that during bear markets, dividend stocks serve as a safer investment, experiencing smaller declines compared to growth stocks [8][10]. - It advocates for a long-term investment strategy that includes buying undervalued companies with high dividends, ensuring a safety margin and consistent income [12][14]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The author contrasts two investment approaches: dividend stock investment, which prioritizes safety and stable returns, and technology stock investment, which seeks high returns but comes with higher risks [17][18]. - The article suggests that investors should consider their understanding of technology stocks and their long-term profitability before making investment decisions, using Warren Buffett's approach as a guiding principle [20].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the timeless principles of value investing as articulated in Benjamin Graham's "Security Analysis," which remains relevant despite changing market conditions and investment paradigms [1][7]. Group 1: Historical Context - "Security Analysis" was published in 1934, following the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression, which significantly influenced Graham's investment philosophy [1]. - The book critiques the stock selection criteria used during the bull market prior to the crash, highlighting a shift from focusing on tangible assets and dividends to speculative future earnings [1][2]. Group 2: Evolution of Investment Principles - The article discusses the transition from valuing tangible assets in Graham's era to recognizing the importance of intangible assets like patents and brands in the late 20th century, and the emergence of network effects as a key competitive advantage in the 21st century [2]. Group 3: Timeless Investment Principles - The first principle is "Equity Thinking," which emphasizes viewing investments from an owner's perspective, reinforcing the idea that value is the foundation of investment [4]. - The second principle is "Contrarian Thinking," which encourages investors to question market consensus and act against prevailing emotions, advocating for buying undervalued assets and selling overvalued ones [5]. - The third principle is "Risk Thinking," which highlights the importance of recognizing asymmetric risks in finance and the necessity of strategies that ensure capital safety and satisfactory returns [6]. Group 4: Conclusion - The article concludes that the core principles of equity thinking, contrarian thinking, and risk thinking from "Security Analysis" are essential for successful investing across different market conditions and should be deeply understood and applied [7].

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes three universal principles from "Security Analysis" that transcend time: equity thinking, contrarian thinking, and risk thinking [1][19][20] Group 1: Equity Thinking - Investment is a game based on value, requiring a perspective from the owner's viewpoint, which is termed equity thinking [9][10] - Equity thinking serves as the foundation for long-termism, as only owners are willing to grow with the company [12][19] Group 2: Contrarian Thinking - The article discusses the human tendency of herd behavior, particularly in the stock market, which distorts investment actions [13][14] - Recognizing the cyclical nature of market emotions allows rational investors to question popular consensus and act contrary to the crowd [14][19] Group 3: Risk Thinking - The financial world is filled with "black swan" events that can have devastating impacts, highlighting the asymmetrical nature of financial risks [15][18] - Investment strategies must possess "traversability," meaning they should avoid irreversible actions that could lead to total loss [16][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by ordinary investors in the stock market and introduces the concept of "survival rules" for investing, emphasizing the importance of building a solid investment framework and avoiding common pitfalls [1]. Group 1: Author Background - The author, Zhang Juying, is an independent investor and a well-known figure in the investment community, recognized for his influence on platforms like Xueqiu and Sina Weibo [5]. - He has published several books aimed at amateur investors, including "10 Rules for Amateur Investors" and "Slowly Becoming Rich," which reflect his 20 years of practical experience in the A-share market [5]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The author advocates for a structured investment approach, focusing on three key mindsets: cash mindset, stock price mindset, and equity mindset, which encourages viewing stock purchases as investments in companies [5]. - The selection of investment sectors is deemed a strategic decision, while choosing individual stocks is considered tactical, with recommended sectors including liquor, home appliances, beauty, health, and pharmaceuticals [5]. Group 3: Stock Selection Criteria - The author outlines five essential criteria for stock selection: longevity, stability, profitability, growth potential, and ethical management [5]. - It is emphasized that high-quality investment targets are rare, and once identified, they should be held for the long term [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A combination of "certainty + flexibility" is suggested to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified investment portfolio while concentrating on high-quality stocks [6]. - The book serves as a guide for novice investors to avoid market traps and build a robust investment understanding, while also providing seasoned investors with a roadmap for value investing in the A-share market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment from a long-term perspective, focusing on the intrinsic value of companies rather than short-term stock price fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment should be viewed as owning a business, where the focus is on the cash flow generated over time rather than daily price changes [2]. - The essence of successful investing lies in optimizing the allocation of retained earnings, akin to nurturing a hen that lays eggs, where returns come from dividends and reinvestment [2]. - Evaluating a company's value involves discounting all future free cash flows, leading to a distinction between overvalued and undervalued stocks based on their lifecycle value [2]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Psychology - Investors face both explicit financial costs and implicit psychological costs, with anxiety and uncertainty being significant factors in decision-making [3]. - The article suggests that a clear investment strategy can simplify complex decisions, reducing the emotional burden associated with market fluctuations [3]. - The mindset of focusing on long-term growth rather than short-term gains can lead to better investment outcomes, as illustrated by the example of holding onto a stock until its potential is fully realized [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "Snowball Three-Point Method" is introduced as a strategy for long-term investment and asset allocation, emphasizing diversification across assets, markets, and timing to enhance returns and mitigate risks [4].

关税战硝烟四起，从达尔文那里回看投资的本质 文/ 重阳投资合伙人舒泰峰 4月2日，特朗普向全球发起关税大战，一时间硝烟四起，搅得资本市场剧烈波动，投资者人心惶惶。 然而，冷静下来就不难发现，其实这正是投资的重要必修课之一——你永远不知道哪里会飞出一 只"黑天鹅"。不用追溯太久，仅仅回想过去5年，我们就经历了许多类似的"黑天鹅"事件：新冠疫 情、俄乌战争、美联储暴力加息等等，每一次都引起资本市场的急剧波动和投资者心理上的巨大冲 击，每一次似乎都"过不去了"，然而股市神奇的地方在于，每一次我们又都跨过了沟沟坎坎，找到了 新的生机。当然，不可否认在这个过程中也有不少个体由于没有系好安全带而悲剧性地被甩出轨道。 市场的这种神奇之处背后的秘密是什么？如何能在黑天鹅的冲击下立于不败之地？笔者在拙作《财富 是认知的变现》之中曾经总结过投资需要具备的12个认知武器，在这几年的市场震荡中，笔者又经过 反复琢磨提炼，觉得其中最重要的是四个思维：复利思维、逆向思维、风险思维和股权思维。如果对 应为心法的话就是四颗心：耐心、疑心、小心和初心。具备了这四种思维或四个心，或许能够帮助我 们更加从容看待"黑天鹅"事件带来的纷扰。 正好最近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment principles in the face of unpredictable events, referred to as "black swan" events, and highlights four key investment mindsets: compound interest thinking, contrarian thinking, risk thinking, and equity thinking [2][3]. Group 1: Compound Interest Thinking - The story of the Manchester peppered moth illustrates how species adapt to environmental changes, emphasizing the power of compound interest over time. For instance, an initial investment of 100,000 yuan at a 20% annual return can grow to approximately 23.74 million yuan over 30 years [6][10]. - The article notes that many investors fail to harness the benefits of compound interest due to a lack of understanding of its gradual accumulation, which can lead to significant wealth over time [9][10]. Group 2: Contrarian Thinking - The life cycle of the periodical cicada, which waits 17 years to emerge and reproduce, serves as a metaphor for the investment strategy of patience and waiting for the right opportunities, contrasting with the impulsive nature of many investors [11][14]. - Successful investors often adopt a "sit and wait" approach, as exemplified by notable figures like Buffett and Munger, who emphasize the importance of long-term holding rather than frequent trading [13][15]. Group 3: Risk Thinking - The behavior of male deer during mating season illustrates the concept of minimizing risks in competition. They engage in ritualistic displays to avoid serious injury, reflecting the need to balance competitive actions with self-preservation [17][21]. - The article categorizes investment errors into two types: Type I errors (taking unnecessary risks) and Type II errors (being overly cautious). It suggests that successful investors prefer to avoid Type I errors, even if it means missing out on some opportunities [22][23]. Group 4: Equity Thinking - The green frog and the fiddler crab demonstrate the concept of signaling in the animal kingdom, where individuals may present misleading signals to gain advantages. This parallels the investment world, where discerning genuine signals from noise is crucial [25][29]. - The article stresses the importance of historical performance data as a reliable indicator of a company's potential, aligning with value investing principles that prioritize long-term fundamentals over speculative signals [30][31].