Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in September due to persistent inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market, despite some dissent among board members [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged [1] - Chairman Powell and the majority of officials favor a tight monetary policy, citing unresolved inflation risks from tariffs [1] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The inflation effects from tariffs are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, making a rate cut in September unlikely [1] - If President Trump's tariffs are further escalated, the timing for any potential rate cuts may be delayed [1] Independence of the Federal Reserve - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that it will not yield to political pressure regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The decision-making process involves 12 voting members, suggesting that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would not significantly alter the direction of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts due to ongoing inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first time since 1993 that two members have voted against a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tight monetary policy, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, despite a rebound in GDP growth [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][6] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [6] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is not prepared to cut rates in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends, which are expected to rise in the latter half of the year primarily due to tariffs [4][5] - The current fiscal policy environment is expected to remain relatively loose, which may lead to sustained economic growth and inflation, suggesting that monetary policy could remain tight for an extended period [5]

本月的美联储议息会议将于当地时间7月30日结束。 目前，外界普遍预计，美联储政策制定者将连续第五次维持利率目标区间在4.25%~4.5%不变。截至发 稿，芝商所的FedWatch工具显示，7月会议不降息的概率为97.4%。 然而，几乎铁定不会降息的美联储可能正面临着32年来内部最分裂的时刻。面对通胀缓解与经济放缓的 交叉信号，美联储决策层罕见分裂为三派。 激进派代表克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）与米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）据称将在本次会 议中联手反对美联储现任主席鲍威尔的政策主张，主张立即降息。若此情形成真，这将是1993年以来首 次有两位理事在同场会议中反对主席政策方向。 但这场分裂不只是货币政策的路径分歧，更是一场制度信任与政治影响力的博弈。从特朗普贴脸施压联 储到提前释放潜在继任者信息，市场开始将9月会议视作美联储是否守住独立性的关键窗口。 美联储面临32年最分裂时刻？两名理事或联合投反对票 本周的美联储议息会议，将打破自1993年以来联储维持的制度性共识。 据媒体报道，两位现任理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）与米歇尔·鲍曼（ ...

预计还将达成几份协议。 预计谈判将在截止日期过后继续进行。 重申对美联储独立性的支持。 美国总统特朗普将决定未来一波贸易协议。 白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：预计美联储将认识到，降息无碍（是安全的）。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储的独立性让你能够根据数据而不是政治做出决定。 ...

鲍威尔：独立性让美联储很好地为公众服务，独立性应当得到捍卫。 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：尊重美联储的独立性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing its most divided moment in 32 years, with two board members potentially voting against Chairman Powell's stance on interest rates, advocating for an immediate rate cut [3][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 30 is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut [1]. - The internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has formed three factions: one advocating for immediate rate cuts, a middle group seeking more data, and a cautious faction waiting for clear signs of economic weakness [4][6]. Group 2: Key Figures and Their Positions - Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both nominated by Trump, represent the aggressive faction pushing for an immediate rate cut, citing concerns over a weakening labor market [5][6]. - Mary Daly, representing the middle faction, emphasizes the need for more data before making any decisions on rate cuts, while Raphael Bostic from the cautious faction is wary of inflation risks [6][7]. Group 3: Political Pressures and Implications - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under significant political pressure, particularly from Trump, who has made symbolic gestures to influence the Fed's decisions [9][11]. - The upcoming September meeting is viewed as a critical juncture for the Fed's institutional integrity and its ability to maintain policy independence amidst political influences [8][11].

智通财经7月30日电，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，美联储高度依赖数据，预计其很快会跟上 （形势）；白宫100%尊重美联储的独立性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is showing strong growth as indicated by GDP data, and the Federal Reserve is expected to respond to this data soon [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - GDP data indicates robust economic growth [1] - The Federal Reserve is highly data-dependent and is anticipated to catch up with economic trends shortly [1] Group 2: Government Policies - The White House emphasizes the importance of tariff revenue in reducing the deficit [1] - Agreements with the European Union and Japan are seen as beneficial for promoting capital expenditure [1] - There is a hope for India to open its market to the U.S. [1]