每经记者|张寿林 每经编辑|廖丹 8月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年7月末，我国外汇储备规模为32922亿美元，较6月 末下降252亿美元，降幅为0.76%。 央行数据显示，7月末黄金储备为7396万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，连续第九个月增加。立足当下，王青 判断，央行增持黄金仍是大方向。 短期内外储规模有望保持基本稳定 对于7月末官方外汇储备数据，国家外汇管理局有关负责人表示，2025年7月，受主要经济体宏观经济数 据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数上涨，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变 化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模下降。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的 支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 王青判断，7月末外储规模出现一定幅度下降，主要有两个原因：一方面，受当月美国与多国达成贸易 协议推动，7月末美元指数比6月末大幅回升3.39%，结束了此前连续5个月的下跌过程。这意味着7月我 国外储中非美元资产价格下跌，是当月外储规模下降的主要原因。其他方面，7月全球主要股指普遍上 涨，但美债收益率上行，美债价格走低。整体看，7月末我国外储 ...

Core Insights - China's official gold reserves have increased for nine consecutive months, with a total of 7,396 million ounces as of the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces [1][4][6] - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, primarily due to fluctuations in the dollar index and asset prices [1][2][3] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to a significant rise in the dollar index, which increased by 3.39% at the end of July compared to the end of June, reversing a five-month downward trend [2][3] - The depreciation of non-dollar currencies, including the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound, against the dollar has also contributed to the decrease in foreign reserves, as these reserves are primarily dollar-denominated [2][3] Gold Reserves Strategy - The continuous increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to optimize the international reserve structure, with the current gold share in China's international reserves at 7.0%, significantly below the global average of around 15% [4][6] - Analysts predict that the trend of increasing gold reserves will continue, driven by the need to enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and support the gradual internationalization of the renminbi [6] Market Outlook - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach a historical high of 4,974 tons in 2024, with central banks remaining the primary buyers despite a slowdown in purchases in the second quarter [5] - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, with forecasts suggesting potential increases due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation concerns [4][5]

Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76%[2] - The decline in reserves was primarily due to a 3.39% increase in the US dollar index, which led to a drop in the prices of non-dollar assets within the reserves[2] - The average monthly trading volume of foreign reserve assets from 2017 to 2024 was approximately $8.4 billion, accounting for 0.27% of the total reserves, indicating that changes in reserve balances are mainly influenced by exchange rate adjustments and asset price fluctuations[2] Gold Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.396 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth[2] - The increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize the international reserve structure, as the gold proportion in China's reserves is only 1.7%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%[4] - The central bank's continued accumulation of gold is seen as a strategy to enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and support the gradual internationalization of the renminbi[4]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $329.22 billion, a decline of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, while gold reserves increased to 7.396 million ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1][3]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,090.36 million in January 2025 and fluctuated throughout the months, reaching $32,852.55 million in May before the decline in July [2]. - The decrease in reserves in July was attributed to the rise in the US dollar index, which increased by 3.39% compared to June, impacting the value of non-dollar assets held in reserves [3]. Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves increased by 60,000 ounces in July 2025, although the increment has been low for five consecutive months [1][3]. - The proportion of gold in China's official international reserve assets is 7.0%, which is significantly lower than the global average [3]. Market Dynamics - The international economic and trade tensions have eased since May, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand and slight adjustments in international gold prices, although they remain high [4]. - There is a growing need to optimize the structure of international reserves by increasing gold holdings and reducing US Treasury securities, as gold serves as a widely accepted final payment method and enhances the credibility of sovereign currency [4].

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July, the Shandong Branch of Bank of China has achieved a record high in cross-border RMB settlement volume, maintaining the largest market share among financial institutions in Shandong Province [1] Group 1: Cross-Border RMB Settlement Growth - Since the launch of the cross-border RMB settlement pilot in 2009, RMB internationalization has progressed from regional to global, evolving from a settlement currency to a pricing and reserve currency [1] - The Shandong Branch has positioned RMB internationalization as a strategic business, enhancing operational quality and efficiency in this area [1] Group 2: Policy Expansion and Digital Upgrade - In 2023, the Shandong Branch completed the annual review and expansion of the cross-border RMB quality enterprise list, further broadening the coverage of RMB facilitation policies [2] - The bank has accelerated the digital upgrade of cross-border financial services, focusing on the "Cross-Border Remittance Express" product, which has improved product signing rates and online migration rates [2] - By the end of July, over 5,000 quality enterprises have benefited from direct cross-border remittance services, enhancing the efficiency of cross-border fund transfers for foreign trade enterprises [2] Group 3: Promotion and Outreach Activities - The Shandong Branch actively implements the People's Bank of China's policy on cross-border RMB promotion, conducting in-depth visits to nearly 1,000 foreign-related enterprises to understand their settlement needs [3] - The bank organized a promotional event in collaboration with Hainan Bank to help Shandong enterprises understand the latest policies of the Hainan Free Trade Port [3] - The bank has integrated cross-border RMB promotion into exhibitions, forming a professional presentation team to participate in events like the China-South Korea Expo, providing a comprehensive platform for trade negotiations and financial services [3] Group 4: Staff Training and Development - To enhance the ability of grassroots institutions to identify cross-border RMB business scenarios, the Shandong Branch developed a toolkit for cross-border RMB business scenarios and products [4] - A skills competition was held on June 30, involving 768 staff members from 16 secondary branches, aimed at improving policy knowledge and practical skills in cross-border RMB operations [4] Group 5: Global Operations and Services - The Bank of China has a presence in 64 countries and regions, making it the most globalized Chinese bank, which allows the Shandong Branch to provide high-quality cross-border financial services [5] - The bank has led the province in the number of "first-time users" of cross-border RMB services, guiding foreign-related enterprises to use RMB for cross-border settlements [5] - The Shandong Branch aims to continue promoting RMB internationalization while contributing to high-quality development and the new development pattern [5]

Core Insights - The rise of technology is profoundly reshaping the financial landscape, with the integration of technology and finance driving innovation and providing robust support for real economy exploration [1] - The dialogue in the "Tech Finance Talk" series aims to explore the real-world applications and future possibilities of tech finance, focusing on stablecoins, digital currency paths, and the risks behind decentralization [1] Stablecoins and Cross-Border Payments - Stablecoins serve as a bridge for existing fiat currencies to enter digital scenarios, but they cannot bypass existing currency management frameworks, such as capital account convertibility [5] - The decentralized nature of stablecoins may lead to arbitrage opportunities, enhancing the ease of currency exchange despite existing restrictions [5] - The promotion of stablecoins should ideally follow the opening of capital accounts to mitigate challenges to national monetary policies [5] RMB Internationalization - Hong Kong's status as an offshore dollar business center could be compromised if stablecoin-related activities are not permitted, potentially weakening its competitive edge as an international financial hub [6] - The exploration of stablecoin cross-border payment functions is significant for breaking the dollar-dominated international monetary system [6] Cautious Approach to RMB Stablecoin - The current market dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins presents a significant network effect, making it a risky time to introduce a RMB stablecoin [7] - Competing directly with dollar stablecoins could hinder the expansion of RMB's network effect and expose it to external shocks [7] Digital Currency Path for RMB - China's push for digital currency aims to strengthen its monetary sovereignty and payment influence amid global digital currency transitions [8] - To establish the digital RMB as a globally accepted currency, a robust digital economy and financial system must be developed [9] Network Effects and Multi-CBDC Bridge - A "multi-CBDC bridge" mechanism is proposed to facilitate interconnectivity among various digital currencies, breaking the monopoly of a single currency and enhancing transaction efficiency [10] Dollar Stablecoins and Market Dynamics - The demand for dollar stablecoins is driven by their liquidity and efficiency, which supports the dollar's status despite growing concerns over U.S. credit [11][12] - The inherent vulnerabilities of stablecoins, particularly the "trilemma" of fixed exchange rates, free convertibility, and independent monetary policy, pose risks to their stability [14]

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, reaching a 16-year low, indicating a strategic financial decoupling rather than a reactionary move [1][3][4] Group 1: China's Actions - Since 2020, China has gradually sold off $300 billion in U.S. debt, reflecting a calculated decision based on global strategic assessments [3] - In March, China reduced its holdings by an additional $76 million, showcasing a systematic withdrawal rather than a panic sell-off [4] - China's current holdings have decreased from a peak of $1.32 trillion to $767.4 billion, demonstrating a strategic and measured approach to divestment [4] Group 2: U.S. Response - The U.S. government, including the Treasury and military, recognizes the implications of China’s actions, as it signals a loss of confidence from a major creditor [5][6] - The Biden administration's contradictory stance of imposing sanctions on China while expecting continued investment in U.S. debt is seen as hypocritical [6] - Warren Buffett's decision to sell Apple stock is interpreted as a sign of caution regarding the U.S. financial situation, highlighting concerns over rising fiscal deficits and debt [7] Group 3: Japan's Role - Japan has emerged as the largest holder of U.S. debt, with holdings reaching $1.1878 trillion, surpassing China, but this is viewed as a forced position rather than a strategic choice [8][9] - Japan's continued purchase of U.S. debt is seen as a necessity to support the U.S. financial system, despite its own economic challenges [9] Group 4: Broader Implications - The ongoing reduction of U.S. debt holdings by China is perceived as a strategic maneuver that could lead to further diversification of asset allocations away from the dollar [15] - Potential future actions may include expanding the use of the yuan in international trade and reducing reliance on the SWIFT system for transactions [15][16] - The financial landscape is shifting, with China positioning itself as a key player in the global financial arena, indicating a move away from U.S. dollar dominance [16][17]

Group 1: Real Estate Market - The number of foreclosed homes is expected to exceed 1 million this year, up from 750,000 last year, leading to a significant drop in market prices as many properties remain unsold and stuck in banks [1] - The current market situation is exacerbated by a large number of foreclosed homes being sold at half the market price, which further depresses overall market values [1][30] - A proposal suggests the establishment of a "Central Housing Reserve" to purchase these foreclosed properties, stabilizing the market and providing housing solutions for displaced homeowners [30] Group 2: Economic Demand and Consumption - The economist emphasizes that boosting demand is crucial, suggesting that government spending on real estate and local government expenditures, which together account for about 50% of total domestic demand, should be prioritized over individual consumption subsidies [2][28] - Current consumer spending is not driven by subsidies but by necessity, indicating that confidence in the economy is a significant factor affecting consumption patterns [28] - The economist advocates for issuing 4 trillion yuan in special government bonds annually for three years to alleviate local government financial deficits, which would help stimulate demand [29] Group 3: Financial Market and Investment - The financial market is in a phase of reconstruction following the deleveraging efforts from 2017 to 2018, with a significant decline in direct financing from over 30% to below 10% [17] - Venture capital (VC) fundraising has seen a drastic reduction, with its share of the U.S. market dropping from 90% to 30%, indicating a need for a re-evaluation of funding sources and strategies [18] - The economist argues for a reconnection between banks and venture capital systems to facilitate the flow of funds into innovative sectors, which could mitigate issues of market saturation and competition [19][22]

新华财经北京8月6日电（王菁）2022年8月6日，五部门联合发布《关于促进债券市场信用评级行业健康 发展的通知》，推出"取消债券发行强制评级要求"等重要举措，对评级行业依赖数十年的商业模式提出 挑战。 三年后的今天，评级机构展现出脱胎换骨的转型成长。从"发行人付费"到"投资人主导"的深度探索，从 监管背书到充分市场竞争，从单一评级到多元化非评级服务——信用评级行业在阵痛中重构筋骨，步入 高质量发展新阶段。 评级新生态：主业质量"自我革新"与"投资者导向"深入推进 "取消强制评级要求""定期披露评级质量检验结果""强化市场监督和约束".....系列重要政策推出并实施， 从根本上改变了评级机构的生存环境，进一步倒逼评级机构重新定位核心价值。 "主流评级机构都在探索分层披露报告，但需要注意的是，'繁'和'简'两个版本的报告需要在风险提示、 分析逻辑、评级观点上保持一致，否则可能会面临较大的道德风险。"也有业内人士提示称。 实际上，市场普遍认同的是，无论评级报告的形式是精简还是详尽，也无论付费方在发行人还是投资 人，优化"评级准确性和区分度"才是重塑行业权威性、提升机构核心竞争力的关键。前述私募人士坦 言："愿意付费 ...

Monetary Policy Direction - The core focus of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) meeting is "stabilizing growth and benefiting people's livelihoods" amidst global economic uncertainties [5] - The market anticipates 1-2 interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with policy rates potentially lowered by 20-30 basis points, which could significantly reduce mortgage repayment burdens for households [6] Policy Tools - The PBOC emphasizes a flexible approach to policy implementation, utilizing various tools such as reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to ensure precision and effectiveness in monetary policy [7] Funding to Real Economy - The PBOC aims to direct funds towards the real economy, particularly addressing long-standing issues of accounts receivable among enterprises, which can enhance overall economic vitality [8] Financial Order Regulation - The PBOC is focused on preventing "involutionary" competition among banks, which can lead to reduced industry efficiency, by promoting a healthier and more sustainable financial service system [11] Key Support Areas - The PBOC will prioritize support for technology innovation, small and micro enterprises, consumption, and foreign trade, with specific policies aimed at directing funds to tech-oriented small businesses [12] Renminbi Internationalization - The meeting discussed expanding the use of the Renminbi in trade, which is expected to enhance its international status and provide convenience for cross-border transactions [13] Risk Prevention - Risk prevention remains a key focus for the PBOC, ensuring that while monetary policies are relaxed, potential financial risks are closely monitored to prevent asset bubbles [14] Future Financial Innovations - The PBOC mentioned the development of a digital central bank and optimization of cross-border payment systems, which are expected to transform payment methods and financial experiences in the future [15]