"2024年，农业银行坚决贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署，坚守服务'三农'和实体经济主责主业，持续优化经营管理策略，主要经营指标持续向好。"3月28 日，农业银行副董事长、执行董事、行长王志恒在该行2024年度业绩发布会上表示。 2024年全年，农业银行实现净利润2827亿元，同比增长4.8%。实现营业收入7114亿元，同比增长2.3%，其中利息净收入5807亿元，同比增长1.6%。 "国家乡村振兴战略的深入推进，为农行发展带来了广阔空间。"王志恒表示，农业银行聚焦城乡融合发展，持续向县域、"三农"倾斜金融资源，不断增强在 县域地区的服务能力和经营优势。 过去一年，农业银行找准"稳"的着力点和"进"的主攻方向，扎实做好服务实体经济和业务经营工作，服务"三农"和乡村振兴有力有效，县域贷款余额占比首 超四成。 下一步，在信贷投放方面有何部署？如何保持"三农"县域业务发展优势？在业绩发布会现场，农业银行管理层进行了回应。 FBO CO. - (4)中国农业银行 | Exmito 品记号 MENG Fanjun 去年县域贷款贡献度持续提升 数据是最好的证明。业务增量方面，2024年，农业银行县域贷款年增量突破万亿元，余额 ...

会议指出，农机装备是保障国家粮食安全、建设农业强国的重要支撑。要坚持面向农业需求、聚焦重点 领域，从突破基础技术、完善创新体系、培育优质企业、打造产业集群等方面综合施策，加快标志性产 品研制和关键核心技术攻关。 要用好用足农机购置与应用补贴、大规模设备更新等政策措施，加强中试验证和熟化应用，促进先进适 用农机装备市场推广。 要发挥标准引领作用，做好鉴定检测认证，强化质量监督管理，促进农机装备产品加快升级。 国常会：研究推动农机装备高质量发展有关措施。 市场端，文件中也提出推进老旧农机报废更新，有望加强新型农机的市场需求，加速老旧农机的淘汰， 推动农业生产方式向智能化、精准化、高效化转变。 在此背景下，具备技术创新能力、产品质量可靠、售后服务完善的农机企业，将有望扩大市场份额，提 升其盈利能力。 国金证券指出，农机行业库存去化继续推进，有望为25Q1旺季开门红做好铺垫。 农机相关港股企业： 第一拖拉机股份(00038)：第一拖拉机股份公布，2024年度拖拉机产品销量约7.43万台，同比增2.71%， 其中大马力拖拉机销量升12.49%，而中马力拖拉机及小马力拖拉机销量分别跌4.57%及52%。至于柴油 机产品销 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月16日 美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告数据分析专题 优于大市 全球大豆压榨量环比调增，中国玉米进口预估进一步下修 种植链农产品：中国玉米进口量预估下修，全球大豆压榨量调增。 1）玉米：国内供需宽松顶部已现，玉米价格有望维持温和上涨。USDA3 月供 需报告将玉米 24/25 产季期末库销比环比调减 0.13%至 23.32%，其中，中国 玉米 24/25 年度进口目标较 2 月预估进一步下调 200 万吨至 800 万吨玉米， 最终中国玉米期末库销比环比减 0.64%至 64.27%。目前国内玉米价格已处于 历史周期底部位置，中储粮自 2024 年 12 月起多次扩大收储，提振国内玉米 市场，后续预计价格底部支撑较强。 2）大豆：南美丰产压力下预计上半年价格维持底部震荡，新季美国大豆减 产或在今年秋季兑现。USDA3 月供需报告中预计 24/25 产季全球产量维持、 压榨量调增、期末库存略减，最终全球大豆期末库销比环比调减 0.94pcts 至 29.67%；总体 2025 上半年全球大豆供应压力仍大，考虑到贸易政策扰动 影响，预计价格维持底部震荡。当前豆系产品价格处于历 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to perform better than the market, with specific focus on corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar, cotton, and livestock [5] Corn - The USDA March report indicates a slight increase in global corn production and usage, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio adjusted down by 0.13% to 23.32% [16][17] - China's corn import target for the 2024/25 season has been revised down by 2 million tons to 8 million tons, leading to a reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 64.27% [17][18] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a recovery trend supported by state reserves and a historical price bottom [19][20] Soybeans - The USDA report maintains global soybean production estimates while increasing the crushing volume by 0.84% to 295 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 121.41 million tons [25][26] - The soybean market is expected to experience price fluctuations in the first half of 2025, with long-term trends indicating a tightening supply [28][29] - The U.S. soybean planting area is projected to decrease by 3.6%, which may lead to a tighter supply in the upcoming season [31] Wheat - The USDA report shows an increase in global wheat production and consumption, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio rising to 32.24% [35][36] - China's wheat import target for the 2024/25 season has been reduced by 1.5 million tons to 6.5 million tons, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [36][37] Sugar - The report indicates a continuation of a loose supply-demand balance for sugar, with domestic production expected to increase by 1.04 million tons [4] - Short-term sugar prices are anticipated to remain weak due to high inventory levels and seasonal consumption patterns [4] Cotton - Global cotton demand is projected to increase, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio adjusted down to 67.21% [4] - Domestic cotton prices are at historical lows, and a recovery in demand could lead to a rebound [4] Livestock - U.S. pork prices are expected to see a slight increase, while domestic pig prices may decline, but low-cost producers are likely to maintain profitability [7] - The poultry market is affected by avian influenza, with expectations for a gradual recovery in supply [7] - Egg supply in China is currently abundant, with pressure on prices expected to persist throughout the year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][5][39] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery potential of undervalued leading breeding companies and the long-term upward trend in rubber prices [1][3][14] - Key recommendations include focusing on high ROE value stocks in the breeding sector and identifying growth opportunities in the pet food market [1][3][39] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - For pets: Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Biological [1][3][16] - For breeding: Mu Yuan Co., Hua Tong Co., and Wen's Food Group [1][3][39] - For rubber: Hainan Rubber, a leading global player in natural rubber cultivation and processing [1][3][22] Breeding Sector - The breeding sector is expected to maintain low volatility in production capacity, with overall supply-demand balance remaining stable [1][17][39] - Specific insights include: - Swine prices were reported at 14.46 CNY/kg, down 8.88% month-on-month, with a slight increase in average weight [2][25] - Poultry supply is at a low, with potential demand recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve [30][35] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with R&D and integration advantages in the seed industry [1][19][39] - Key recommendations include: - Hainan Rubber, with significant production and processing capabilities [1][22] Market Trends - The report notes that the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increased by 0.20% in February, underperforming compared to the broader market [2][5] - The report also highlights the strong performance of specific stocks, such as Tianye Co. and Dayu Biological, with notable increases in their stock prices [2][5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [61] Core Insights - The report indicates that the supply pressure in the pig farming sector is evident, with a slight increase in pig prices followed by a decline due to restored supply [2][9]. - The white feather broiler market is experiencing price increases, supported by improved slaughter profits and a successful import of breeding stock from France by Yisheng [3][31]. - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes food security and technological innovation in agriculture, highlighting the importance of enhancing grain supply capabilities and promoting agricultural technology [39][41]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - March pig slaughter is expected to increase month-on-month, but prices may remain weak due to supply pressures. As of March 7, the national average pig price was 14.45 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.06 CNY/kg week-on-week [2][9]. - Slaughterhouse daily average slaughter volume increased to 140,700 heads, up 3.53% week-on-week, while frozen product inventory rates rose to 15.58%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [10][24]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 127.06 kg, up 0.54 kg week-on-week, indicating a trend of rising weights alongside increased slaughter rates [14][24]. White Feather Broilers - The price of white feather broilers has continued to rise, reaching 6.59 CNY/kg as of March 7, an increase of 0.49 CNY/kg week-on-week, driven by improved market conditions and slaughter profits [3][26]. - Yisheng has successfully imported breeding stock from France, which is expected to strengthen its supply chain amid tight supply conditions for parent stock due to previous import restrictions [31][31]. Seed Industry - The 2025 Central Document emphasizes food security, mentioning "grain" 15 times and outlining measures to enhance grain production and quality [39][41]. - The document introduces the concept of "new agricultural productivity," focusing on the application of technology in agriculture, including biotechnology and artificial intelligence [41][41]. - Investment opportunities are suggested in the areas of biological breeding and smart agriculture, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [41][41].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant improvements in air quality and environmental protection in China, emphasizing the government's commitment to green transformation and sustainable development through various initiatives and policies [1][2]. Group 1: Air Quality Improvement - The average annual concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing decreased from 80.6 micrograms per cubic meter in 2015 to 30.5 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024, representing a reduction of 62% [1]. - The number of heavy pollution days in Beijing dropped from 46 days in 2015 to just 1 day in 2024, indicating a substantial improvement in air quality [1]. Group 2: Renewable Energy and Carbon Market - As of 2024, renewable energy generation capacity in China exceeded 300 million kilowatts, accounting for 56% of total installed capacity and over 35% of total electricity generation [2]. - The carbon market's trading scale has expanded, with carbon emissions intensity in coal-fired power generation decreasing by 8.78 percentage points, saving companies approximately 35 billion yuan in carbon reduction costs [2]. Group 3: Water and Flood Management - The Ministry of Water Resources is enhancing flood safety systems and capabilities, acknowledging the persistent threat of extreme rainfall and flooding [5]. - The government is focusing on comprehensive river and lake management, including the "Mother River Revival Action" to ensure ecological flow in water bodies [2][5]. Group 4: Food Security and Agricultural Innovation - China's grain production reached a record 1.4 trillion jin, an increase of 221.8 million jin, despite facing severe natural disasters [5][6]. - The concept of "new agricultural productivity" has been introduced, emphasizing the use of modern technology to enhance agricultural efficiency and support grain production through various policies [6].

Group 1 - The government work report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing grain planting area while focusing on improving yield and quality, which aligns with the ongoing efforts of agricultural workers like those in Liaoning province [1] - Liaoning province ranks fourth in the country for grain yield per mu at 931.88 jin/mu, indicating strong agricultural performance, particularly in the city of Yingkou where over 200,000 mu of high-quality rice is cultivated [2] - The concept of "new agricultural productivity" has been introduced in the central government's policy documents, highlighting a shift towards smart agriculture and the integration of technology into farming practices [2] Group 2 - The promotion of agricultural technology is crucial for connecting advanced seed varieties with farmers, ensuring that the agricultural sector can maintain self-sufficiency in food production [2] - The ongoing focus on seed industry revitalization in government reports reflects a sustained commitment to enhancing agricultural productivity and supporting farmers [1]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new agricultural productivity through technological innovation, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the agricultural sector [1][2]. Core Insights - The central government's policy, as outlined in the February 2025 document, aims to enhance agricultural productivity and ensure food security through technological advancements and localized development strategies [2][3]. - The concept of new agricultural productivity breaks traditional limitations, focusing on the application of new technologies to foster new industries and business models in rural areas [3][4]. - The report highlights China's leading position in global agricultural production indices, with significant growth in grain production and mechanization rates, indicating a robust agricultural modernization process [4][5]. Summary by Sections Agricultural New Productivity Introduction - New agricultural productivity emphasizes the integration of advanced technologies to transform traditional agricultural practices into modern ones, facilitating high-quality agricultural development [3][4]. Significance of Developing New Agricultural Productivity - The report notes that China's agricultural production value indices are above global averages, showcasing the country's strong agricultural capabilities [4][5]. - The core drivers of new agricultural productivity include technological innovation, which is essential for improving production efficiency and ensuring food security [5][6]. Analysis of Agricultural Enterprises' Bond Issuance - As of February 26, 2025, there are 115 outstanding bonds in the agriculture sector, with a total value of 1,046.13 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend in agricultural financing [7][10]. - The report anticipates increased funding needs for agricultural enterprises due to enhanced policy support and ongoing modernization efforts in the sector [7][10]. - The issuance of bonds is primarily focused on short to medium-term maturities, aligning with the investment cycles of agricultural enterprises [10][12].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile week, initially rising before facing significant declines, with the largest drops in the communication, media, and computer sectors, while steel, real estate, and food and beverage sectors saw the most gains [3][22] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 4.97%, ending a six-week upward trend, yet southbound capital continued to flow into the Hong Kong market [3] Bond Market - The bond market showed weakness this week, with both government and credit bonds adjusting downwards, influenced by tight liquidity despite the central bank's net injection [4][28] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with short-term bonds offering better value [10] Commodity Market - Gold prices retreated from highs, with COMEX gold falling below 2900 due to profit-taking and a strengthening US dollar influenced by tariff policies [5] - The South China Commodity Index dropped by 1.70%, with no sectors showing weekly gains [35] Overseas Market - US stocks faced significant adjustments, with the S&P 500 experiencing declines, particularly in large tech stocks, amid concerns over economic stagnation and softening service sector data [6][7] - The US announced additional tariffs on Chinese goods, further impacting market sentiment [6][26] Stock Market Insights - The recent market performance indicates a need for caution among investors due to profit-taking and external market volatility, although the fundamental revaluation of Chinese tech assets remains intact [9] - The upcoming month will see increased uncertainty regarding US-China trade policies and earnings forecasts for Q1 2025, necessitating close monitoring of policy developments and company performance [9] Industry Performance - Notable weekly performance in the steel, real estate, and food and beverage sectors, with respective gains of +3.18%, +2.22%, and +1.77% [22][24] - The communication sector saw a significant decline of -9.64%, reflecting broader market challenges [24] Trading Activity - Total trading volume in the A-share market increased to 195.74 billion yuan, up 4.00% from the previous week, with the turnover rate for the CSI 1000 index rising [17] - The turnover rates for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices decreased, indicating a shift in trading dynamics [17]