中信建投：维持中国太平(00966)"买入"评级 目标价 16.14港元 人寿保险业务：价值改善带动NBV强劲增，但假设调整致内含价值承压 太平人寿将内含价值长期投资回报率假设、风险贴现率分别从4.5%、9.0%下调至4.0%、8.5%。 太平人寿可比口径下全年NBV同比+90.0%至142.7亿港元，创历史新高，人民币口径下同比+94.2%，新 假设口径下全年NBV为91.0亿港元。NBV增长主要由NBVM(可比口径)同比+16.6pct至32.5%驱动。 NBVM提升主要受益于公司聚焦价值型产品推动，贯彻落实"报行合一"。新单保费方面，预计受"报行 合一"和2023年基数较高影响，2024年新单保费同比-23.2%至4765.2亿港元。单下半年来看，新单保费 同比+3.7%至2195.6亿港元。截至2024年末，太平人寿归母内含价值为1552.7亿港元，同比-15.7%，可 比口径下同比-13.9%至2063.3亿港元，人民币可比口径同比-14.4%。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，受益于"报行合一"政策实施和权益市场回暖，中国太平 (00966)资负两端2024年共振改善，NBV和利润均实现快 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a dual growth in profit and value, with an increase in the dividend payout ratio [7] - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 126.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [7] - The report indicates a significant improvement in the operating profit of the property and casualty insurance business, while the asset management and technology sectors reported losses [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 913.79 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 1,028.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 85.665 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 126.607 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 47.8% growth [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 4.70 yuan in 2023 to 6.95 yuan in 2024 [1] Business Segment Performance - The life insurance segment's new business value (NBV) increased by 28.8% year-on-year, with individual business new policies growing by 3.9% [7] - The property and casualty insurance segment achieved a turnaround with a profit of 5.46 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.08 billion yuan in 2023 [7] - The asset management segment reported a loss of 11.9 billion yuan, although the loss narrowed by 43% compared to the previous year [7] Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its investment strategy, increasing allocations to bonds and stocks while reducing exposure to funds [7] - The total investment scale reached 5.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [7] - The net investment yield is projected to be 3.8% in 2024, down from 4.2% in 2023, while total investment yield is expected to rise to 4.5% [7] Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization corresponds to a 2025 estimated price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.65x, indicating that the stock is still undervalued [7] - The report projects a gradual increase in the company's intrinsic value per share, from 76.34 yuan in 2023 to 78.12 yuan in 2024 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the bancassurance channel, with a significant restructuring of channel dynamics following the integration of insurance and banking operations [4][6] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic policies and a recovering market, which will alleviate investment pressures for insurance companies [6] - The report anticipates a continued growth trend in profits and new business value (NBV) for insurance companies in the first quarter of 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2023, the insurance industry had a total of 19 listed companies with a total share capital of 2,040.86 million shares, generating sales revenue of 39,503.64 billion CNY and a total profit of 4,107.99 billion CNY [1] Channel Structure - The bancassurance channel's premium income share increased to 36.7%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the personal agency channel's share decreased to 50.9%, down by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The bancassurance channel has seen a cumulative increase of 6.4 percentage points since 2019, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4] Product Structure - By the end of 2023, ordinary life insurance accounted for 57.1% of total premium income, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by demand for safe investment products [5] - The report notes a decline in the share of participating insurance and health insurance, with participating insurance at 20.5% (down 6.0 percentage points) and health insurance at 20.7% (down 1.6 percentage points) [5] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, citing that the average static and dynamic price-to-earnings value (PEV) for four major insurance companies is at historically low levels, indicating limited downside risk [6] - Specific recommendations include strong endorsements for companies like Xinhua Insurance, China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life, based on their robust performance and growth potential [6]

Summary of Sunshine Insurance Conference Call Company Overview - Sunshine Insurance Group was established in 2005 and includes subsidiaries such as Sunshine Property Insurance, Sunshine Life Insurance, Sunshine Asset Management, Sunshine CITIC Insurance, and Sunshine Digital Technology. Despite being the 79th insurance company established in the industry, it has grown to rank among the top ten in terms of comprehensive strength after years of development. Sunshine Property Insurance achieved profitability within 23 months of establishment and has maintained profitability for 18 consecutive years. Sunshine Life Insurance became profitable six years after opening and has seen positive growth in new business value for 11 consecutive years. Sunshine Asset Management has become a leading asset management company within five years of establishment. The group successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 9, 2022, marking the first private insurance listing in nearly 18 years after Ping An. Currently, the H-share circulation is 3.478 billion shares, accounting for 30.25% of the total shares, with a dividend yield close to 7%, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4][5]. Business Development and Strategy - In early 2025, Sunshine Insurance's business development met expectations, with new single premiums achieving double-digit growth, outperforming benchmark companies. The company is actively promoting dividend insurance and personal pension products, optimizing product structure, and reducing policy liability costs. Although individual insurance business is under pressure from overall industry growth, the decline is minimal, and good development is expected for the year [2][6]. - The bancassurance channel is a significant advantage for Sunshine Insurance, with new single submissions growing at a double-digit rate from January to February. The company plans to reduce short-term payment strategies, focusing on increasing regular premium growth and transitioning the bancassurance channel towards dividend insurance, which currently accounts for a double-digit percentage [2][7]. - Sunshine Insurance emphasizes a multi-channel strategy, valuing both individual and bancassurance channels. The bancassurance channel accounts for approximately 70% of premiums, while individual insurance accounts for about 30%. In terms of new business value, individual insurance contributes around 60%, and bancassurance contributes about 40% [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company focuses on long-term regular premium business in its dividend insurance strategy, reducing the bancassurance channel's one-time premium dividend business, which has minimal value. This adjustment significantly enhances overall margins. The design of product types determines duration rather than whether they are dividend-type products [2][9]. - Sunshine Insurance is committed to enhancing the professionalism and efficiency of its agent team through internal adjustments and technology empowerment, aiming to improve sales efficiency and customer management capabilities [3][11]. Investment Strategy - Sunshine Insurance has gradually increased its allocation to high-dividend stocks, which accounted for nearly 70% of its stock investments as of June 30, 2024. The company places these stocks in OCI accounts to ensure capital safety and stable dividend income. The overall investment assets are approximately 60% in OCI assets, which helps match the liability side of traditional insurance products [4][12][13]. - The company maintains a cautious attitude towards real estate investments, with related investments accounting for about 1.7% to 1.8% of total investment assets, amounting to less than 10 billion [19][22]. - Sunshine Insurance plans to respond to regulatory encouragement for long-term funds to enter the market by increasing equity investments, with a current equity asset ratio of 24.9%. The company has about 5% room for additional equity allocation, but it expects to maintain the equity ratio around 25% to avoid urgent adjustments in case of solvency issues [14][15]. Risk Management - The company defines liability costs as new single liability costs below 3%, with the latest figures dropping to below 2.5%. This improvement is attributed to the reduction in preset interest rates and proactive optimization of the business structure [20]. - Sunshine Insurance adopts a prudent strategy regarding alternative assets like REITs, ensuring balanced asset allocation to mitigate overall investment risks while monitoring the real estate market closely [21][22].