在市场利率下行阶段，如何压降负债成本、防范利差损风险？越来越多的保险公司向分红险等浮动 收益产品求解，在寿险业内掀起结构性转型的浪潮。中国证券报记者近日从业内调研了解到，去年以 来，各家保险公司持续推进一场大刀阔斧的业务重构，比如在新发产品中，分红险逐渐走向舞台中央， 占比大幅提升；同时，不少公司在培训、推广、销售方面推出"课表""任务表"……向分红险转型已经从 喊口号转向动真格。 保险公司在产品转型方面摩拳擦掌，已转化出切切实实的数字。记者日前从业内获悉的一份行业交 流数据资料显示，2024年分红寿险原保险保费收入7658.74亿元，同比增长4.12%，增速较上年度由负转 正。但多位业内人士告诉记者，分红险距离被市场广泛接受依然任重道远。"分红型产品不太好卖，难 点在于确定的收益看起来少，不确定的收益虽然有可能高，但消费者对此存疑。"北京一位头部险企人 士告诉记者。 高悦还认为，分红型产品保底利率较低，其资产配置策略相对灵活，可为追求长期收益配置更高比 例的权益资产；同时，由于分红型产品的负债久期相对较短，可缓解保险公司资产负债久期匹配压力， 更贴近保单持有人对长期稳定超额收益的关注。 消费者不买账，与此前 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, particularly the rise of AI-related stocks and the decline of the hydropower engineering sector due to shifting investor focus ahead of an AI conference in Shanghai [1] - The insurance industry is facing a significant change as the insurance association has officially lowered the preset interest rates, with new rates set to take effect on September 1, where the maximum preset rate for ordinary life insurance is 2%, for participating insurance is 1.75%, and for universal insurance is 1% [4][11] - The article discusses the ongoing trend of low interest rates, predicting that the key rates will continue to decline, which has been a foundational basis for many investment decisions this year [6][9] Group 2 - The impact of the insurance preset rate reduction is expected to lead to a "buy before the price increase" phenomenon, but the article expresses skepticism about a significant surge in new policy sales due to already low preset rates and market saturation [11] - Insurance companies are likely to increase the sales of participating insurance products as the difference in interest rates between traditional life insurance and participating insurance narrows [12] - The article notes that the pressure on small and medium-sized insurance companies will increase, as lower preset rates reduce customer attraction and intensify competition from other financial products [12][13] Group 3 - The article mentions that the trend of concentration among leading insurance companies will strengthen as the industry adapts to the new interest rate environment, with significant capital flows into leading insurance firms reflected in the performance of related ETFs [13][14] - The article highlights the recent net inflow of over 800 billion into Hong Kong stocks, indicating strong demand from investors despite market volatility [17] - The public fund industry has seen a turning point with a notable increase in the share of mixed funds, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards active equity investments [18]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Niu Zengliang as the new General Manager of Huatai Life Insurance marks a significant leadership change amid the ongoing transformation of the insurance industry and the accelerated layout of foreign capital [2][3] Company Leadership Change - Niu Zengliang has been approved to take over as General Manager starting July 10, 2025, filling a vacancy that has existed since July 2022 [3] - This leadership change indicates a new phase of deep integration of the "Chubb system" within Huatai Life Insurance, reflecting a trend of actuarial talent taking on leadership roles during the industry's transformation [2][3] Niu Zengliang's Background - Niu Zengliang is a seasoned actuary with multiple professional qualifications and has held significant management positions in various insurance companies before joining Huatai Life [4] - His rapid ascent from temporary Chief Actuary to General Manager within nine months highlights his expertise and the strategic direction of the company [4] Management Team Optimization - Alongside Niu's appointment, Huatai Life's executive team has been optimized, with key positions filled by experienced professionals, including Su Mei as Chief Risk Officer and Xi Yue as Chief Actuary [4][5] Industry Context - The insurance industry is undergoing a critical transformation, with regulatory encouragement for companies to lower life insurance product rates and promote floating income products [5][6] - The trend of placing actuarial professionals in core management roles is becoming more prevalent as companies focus on risk assessment and cost control [6] Strategic Development - Huatai Life is accelerating the implementation of its "1+2+3" five-year strategy, which emphasizes customer focus, innovation, and three strategic pillars: health management, elite marketing, and digitalization [7][8] - The company has seen a significant increase in insurance business revenue, reaching 9.29 billion yuan in 2024, a 27.1% year-on-year growth [8][9] Financial Performance - The company reported a doubling of premium income from dividend insurance to 4.22 billion yuan, becoming a key driver of performance [9] - Despite the growth in revenue, the company faces challenges with rising surrender amounts, which increased from 508 million yuan in 2022 to 728 million yuan in 2024 [10][11] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in insurance business income to 2.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.71%, although net profit improved significantly [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is experiencing a structural shift due to declining liability costs and improved asset returns, leading to a narrowing of interest spread risks [4][6]. - Regulatory guidance has prompted insurance companies to lower the preset interest rates for new products, transitioning from high guaranteed return products to lower guaranteed and floating return products [2][4]. - The focus on dividend insurance is increasing as companies adapt to lower interest rates and seek to enhance their investment returns through equity investments [3][4]. Summary by Sections Liability Side - Regulatory measures have led to a continuous reduction in preset interest rates for various insurance products, dynamically lowering the risk of interest spread losses [2][20]. - The average liability cost for 2024 is projected to be 2.56%, with further declines expected in the following years [2][32]. Asset Side - Insurance companies are increasing their allocation to equity investments to stabilize returns amid low long-term interest rates and declining fixed-income asset yields [3][42]. - The expected comprehensive investment returns for the life insurance sector from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 4.06%, 3.93%, and 3.92% respectively [3][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a high proportion of life insurance business and relatively flexible asset sides, such as China Life and New China Life, as well as companies with strong sales foundations like Ping An and China Pacific Insurance [4][5]. Key Company Profit Forecasts - The report provides profit forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, all rated as "Outperform" [5]. - For instance, China Life is expected to have an EPS of 3.83 in 2025, with a P/EV of 0.69 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry is undergoing structural changes, with dividend insurance potentially entering a recovery phase after a period of decline, particularly highlighted by the performance of Taikang's dividend insurance products [1][20]. Group 1: Industry Overview - By the end of 2024, the life insurance industry is projected to have a total premium scale of 4.6 trillion yuan, with original premium income at 4.0 trillion yuan, policyholder investment contributions at 578.7 billion yuan, and new contributions to independent accounts of linked insurance at 16.8 billion yuan [12][16]. - In 2023, the original premium income of the life insurance industry reached 3.5 trillion yuan, with ordinary life insurance contributing 2.0 trillion yuan, dividend insurance at 714.2 billion yuan, health insurance at 72.1 billion yuan, accident insurance at 44.9 billion yuan, universal insurance at 9.7 billion yuan, and linked insurance at 0.4 billion yuan [3][16]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The share of dividend insurance premiums has decreased from 60% in 2005 to a historical low of 20.5% in 2023, indicating a significant structural shift in the industry [6][19]. - The industry is transitioning towards a "low guaranteed + high floating" model to address interest margin losses, facing challenges in consumer perception, sales channels, and product design [8][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The years 2023 and 2024 are seen as critical for the stabilization of dividend insurance, with expectations for a gradual recovery in its market share as the industry transforms and market conditions improve [20][21]. - The top ten companies in dividend insurance premium income for 2023 have been identified, with Taikang Life leading in the proportion of dividend insurance premiums [20][24]. Group 4: Company Performance - The analysis of major companies shows that China Life, Ping An Life, and Taiping Life have high proportions of ordinary life insurance, while Taikang Life has a significant share of 61.1% in dividend insurance [28]. - The new single premium income for the life insurance industry in 2023 was 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a 19-fold increase since 2001, although the proportion of new single premium income relative to total premium income has been declining, standing at 38.2% in 2023 [25][26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the bancassurance channel, with a significant restructuring of channel dynamics following the integration of insurance and banking operations [4][6] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic policies and a recovering market, which will alleviate investment pressures for insurance companies [6] - The report anticipates a continued growth trend in profits and new business value (NBV) for insurance companies in the first quarter of 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2023, the insurance industry had a total of 19 listed companies with a total share capital of 2,040.86 million shares, generating sales revenue of 39,503.64 billion CNY and a total profit of 4,107.99 billion CNY [1] Channel Structure - The bancassurance channel's premium income share increased to 36.7%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the personal agency channel's share decreased to 50.9%, down by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The bancassurance channel has seen a cumulative increase of 6.4 percentage points since 2019, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4] Product Structure - By the end of 2023, ordinary life insurance accounted for 57.1% of total premium income, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by demand for safe investment products [5] - The report notes a decline in the share of participating insurance and health insurance, with participating insurance at 20.5% (down 6.0 percentage points) and health insurance at 20.7% (down 1.6 percentage points) [5] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, citing that the average static and dynamic price-to-earnings value (PEV) for four major insurance companies is at historically low levels, indicating limited downside risk [6] - Specific recommendations include strong endorsements for companies like Xinhua Insurance, China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life, based on their robust performance and growth potential [6]