智通财经7月1日电，英国央行行长贝利表示，英国的通胀完全由价格管理引起的；利率的走向仍然呈现 下行趋势；目前尚未看到关税对物价的影响。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：如果我们忽略关税因素，通胀将按预期和预期的方式运行。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：当我们看到关税的规模时，我们暂停了行动。 ...

Report Summary Investment Ratings - Gold: Not clearly indicated [1] - Silver: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals rebounded slightly. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, market risk appetite improved, and the gold price has given back the war premium. Market focus has shifted to tariff negotiations and the Fed [1]. - Trump criticized the Fed again, and there are speculations about Powell's successor. Fed official Bostic still expects one rate cut this year and three next year, and Goldman Sachs advanced its Fed rate - cut forecast to September [1]. - Trump will meet with the trade team this week to determine national tariff rates. There are expectations of tariff exemptions for certain agricultural products. Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the EU will go to the US for trade negotiations on July 1st, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries. US Treasury Secretary believes there will be a wave of trade - agreement signings in the last week before the July 9th deadline [1][2] Other Summaries - Tonight, the US ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTs job openings will be released [1] - The White House said Trump will meet with the trade team this week to set national tariff rates, and the US Agriculture Secretary expects possible tariff exemptions for hard - to - grow agricultural products in the US [2] - Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the White House will restart negotiations with Canada. EU officials will go to the US for trade talks on July 1st, and the EU may accept general tariffs but seek exemptions for key industries [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bostic thinks there will be a flurry of trade - agreement signings in the last week before July 9th [2]

Group 1 - Asu Capital Partners has completed the final closing of its first fund, focusing on investment opportunities in Japan, which is seen as a promising startup market due to the shift of power from large companies and the need for infrastructure upgrades [2] - The U.S. market is no longer viewed as a guaranteed investment option, emphasizing the importance of restructuring systems during the 90-day tariff window to navigate future market volatility [3] - Kuaishou's independent AI chip company has raised hundreds of millions for next-generation chip development and expansion of existing product SL200 [4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has led global fundraising in the first half of the year, with IPO fundraising reaching HKD 106.71 billion, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [5] - Amazon's CEO stated that the company has not observed significant price increases due to tariffs, attributing this to proactive inventory management strategies [6] - Honeycomb Energy's Thai factory has officially produced its 10,000th EV battery pack, with plans to expand into energy storage and other markets in Southeast Asia [6] Group 3 - Yongmaotai plans to invest approximately CNY 450 million to establish an intelligent manufacturing base for automotive parts in Mexico, aiming to enhance international competitiveness [7] - Meta's CEO announced a major restructuring of the AI team to focus on developing "superintelligent" AI, with new hires from leading tech companies [7] - Morgan Stanley reported that Elon Musk's xAI has raised $10 billion, including $5 billion in strategic equity investment [7]

智通财经7月1日电，欧洲央行KAZAKS表示，如果美国征收10%的关税，欧元升值10%以上，足以损害 出口。 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that tariffs are not a zero-sum game and have significant implications for U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the broader economic impact rather than just the immediate costs to producers and consumers [1][2] - Tariffs paid by U.S. importers are projected to amount to $327 billion annually, which represents 1% of the nominal GDP for 2025 [2][6] - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, profit margins could drop from 13.8% to 11.7% in Q1 2025, significantly below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [2][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that if 75% of the tariffs are passed on to consumers, profit margins could exceed the 15-year moving average by 1.1 percentage points [12][13] - The analysis indicates that the current economic environment is leaning towards downside risks, with a noted decline in air passenger traffic compared to previous years [17] - The report suggests that despite some foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks, there is a notable trend of U.S. domestic investors reducing their exposure, indicating a potential reallocation of assets [34][36]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 1, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5270, down 2.04%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 5230. The开工 rate is running at a low level, the price of semi - coke in Ningxia on the cost side has decreased, and the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. Attention should be paid to market sentiment disturbances under tariff policy changes. The production profit of ferroalloys is currently negative, with a spot profit of - 310 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and - 290 yuan/ton in Ningxia. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 1, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5624, down 0.95%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia dropped by 20 yuan/ton to 5480. From a fundamental perspective, the manufacturers'开工 rate has rebounded for 6 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the overall inventory is still high. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 0.9 million tons, and the downstream hot metal production is running at a high level. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 210 yuan/ton. In the market, steel mills are cautious in purchasing, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,624.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,270.00 yuan/ton, down 74.00 yuan. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 572,733.00 hands, up 81.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 420,269.00 hands, up 23,161.00 hands. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 26,211.00 hands, up 9,264.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy was - 47,967.00 hands, up 6,075.00 hands. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 38.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 24.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan. - The SM仓单 was 88,062.00 sheets, down 670.00 sheets; the SF仓单 was 9,109.00 sheets, up 787.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,250.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Guizhou was 5,550.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Qinghai was 5,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Yunnan was 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Ningxia was 5,230.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan. - The manganese silicon index average was 5,490.00 yuan/ton, up 25.00 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 40.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan. - The SM主力合约基差 was - 144.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block) at Tianjin Port was 35.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica stone (98% in the northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 850.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The manganese ore port inventory was 422.40 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon企业开工率 was 39.21%, up 2.82 percentage points; the silicon ferroalloy企业开工率 was 31.70%, down 0.99 percentage points. - The manganese silicon supply was 179,235.00 tons, up 2,625.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 97,500.00 tons, down 400.00 tons. - The manganese silicon厂家库存 was 221,800.00 tons, up 15,900.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy厂家库存 was 6.94 million tons, up 0.14 million tons. - The manganese silicon全国钢厂库存 was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the silicon ferroalloy全国钢厂库存 was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 125,881.00 tons, up 2,164.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 20,354.20 tons, up 389.80 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.84%, unchanged; the 247家钢厂高炉产能利用率 was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points. - The crude steel output was 8,654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting from July to break the "involution - style" competition, and the supply of domestic photovoltaic glass is expected to decline rapidly. - Starting from July 1, China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot - rolled sheets/coils originating from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for a period of 5 years. - Trump said he would not extend the July 9 deadline, set tariffs for each country, and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The EU is willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but seeks exemptions for key industries. Canada has cancelled the digital service tax, and the US and Canada will resume trade negotiations. South Korea's primary task is to obtain a tariff extension permit. - From January to May this year, the national crude steel output was 432 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The apparent domestic consumption of crude steel was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is primarily driven by optimism surrounding the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill and a weakening U.S. dollar, which has created a favorable environment for copper and other base metals [3][4][8]. Group 1: Copper Price Movement - International copper prices spiked, reaching a high of $9,984, with a rise of over 1% [1][6]. - Domestic copper futures also saw an increase, closing up by 1.09% [2][6]. - The surge in copper prices has positively impacted related stocks, such as Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper, which experienced significant gains [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The optimism in the market is largely attributed to the voting process of the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is expected to boost market confidence [3]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below 97, marking a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, the worst performance since 1973 [4][8]. - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts starting in September 2025, further supporting the prices of base metals [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Support - The current copper price is supported by both macroeconomic factors and fundamentals, with expectations of a trade agreement among major partners and increased fiscal deficits due to the U.S. bill [10]. - LME copper inventories are declining, and there is a significant increase in the premium for copper, indicating tightening supply conditions [11]. - The market is currently in a tight balance regarding refined copper supply, with limited production increases expected [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME copper prices for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 in August [13]. - The outlook for copper prices remains positive, with expectations of reaching $10,000 to $11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, contingent on macroeconomic policies and global economic recovery [12].

Group 1 - The EU has tentatively agreed to a 10% universal tariff proposed by the US, contingent on concessions from the US in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [1] - The focus of negotiations is on reducing existing tariffs on automobiles and metals, with the EU pushing for a decrease in the current 25% tariff on automobiles and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [1][2] - If an agreement is not reached by July 9, tariffs on EU exports to the US could rise to 50%, significantly impacting EU exports valued at €52.8 billion (approximately $62.2 billion) for automobiles and €24 billion for steel and aluminum [2] Group 2 - The negotiation process is advancing on multiple fronts, with the EU Trade Commissioner leading discussions in the US to address tariff reductions, non-tariff barriers, and strategic procurement cooperation [3] - The US proposal includes three main areas: tariff systems, non-tariff barriers, and strategic cooperation, although specific rates have not been disclosed to EU member states [6] - The outcome of the negotiations could lead to one of four scenarios: a modest reciprocal agreement, unilateral concessions, postponed talks, or a trade war, which would trigger retaliatory tariffs on US products [6] Group 3 - The negotiations reflect deeper economic tensions, with the Trump administration expanding tariffs to boost domestic manufacturing, while the EU seeks to balance multilateral trade systems against unilateralism [7] - As the deadline approaches, both parties are engaged in final negotiations over key terms such as tariff reduction levels, industry exemptions, and future tariff commitments, which will significantly influence transatlantic trade dynamics [7]