Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 36th day, marking the longest shutdown in history, primarily due to partisan disagreements over key issues like healthcare subsidies [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that the shutdown could reduce the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter [1][12] - Key pressure points driving negotiations include disruptions in air traffic, the suspension of food stamp benefits for 42 million people, and impending military pay issues [1][21] Group 1: Government Shutdown Dynamics - The shutdown began on September 30 after Congress failed to pass any temporary funding bills, leading to 14 failed votes in the Senate over the past month [1][5] - The inability to reach a compromise stems from deepening partisan divides, particularly regarding the extension of enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) [4][11] - The current political stalemate is exacerbated by the procedural tool of "filibuster," which allows unlimited debate unless a supermajority is reached [10][11] Group 2: Economic Impact - The CBO estimates that a six-week shutdown could result in a permanent loss of approximately $11 billion in economic output, with losses increasing to $14 billion if the shutdown lasts eight weeks [12][13] - The economic costs are compounded by the absence of critical economic data releases due to the shutdown, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [16][19] - The market's confidence in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished, with expectations dropping from 90.5% to 69% for a December rate cut [17][19] Group 3: Pressure Points for Resolution - The aviation sector is facing significant disruptions, with a high absenteeism rate among air traffic controllers leading to flight delays and cancellations [21][23] - The suspension of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has created a direct political pressure on Republican lawmakers, as many beneficiaries reside in Republican-controlled states [21][24] - Military pay issues are also looming, with uncertainty surrounding the next scheduled payment on November 15, which could further compel action from Congress [24][27] Group 4: Potential Outcomes - Analysts suggest that a compromise may involve a "clean" continuing resolution in exchange for future negotiations on healthcare subsidies, allowing both parties to save face [27] - Observing the reconvening of the House and positive developments in Senate negotiations could signal that an agreement is nearing [27]

美国国会参议院4日再次未能通过联邦政府临时拨款法案。 这意味着10月1日开始的本轮联邦政府"停摆"即将打破2018年底至2019年初"停摆"35天的纪录， 成为 美国历史上持续时间最长的一次"停摆" 。 参议院当天第14次尝试推进一项已获众议院通过的临时拨款法案，以维持联邦政府正常运转，但相关程序性投 票未能获得推进该法案所需的60票。这导致引发政府"停摆"的财政僵局依旧延续，"停摆"的时长记录将于美国 东部时间11月5日零时起被刷新。 民主、共和两党围绕临时拨款法案的主要争议在于医保福利开支。美国《平价医疗法案》医保的2026年度参保 登记于11月1日启动。由于两党未能就相关政府补贴达成一致，保险公司公布的年度保费大幅上涨。参议院民 主党领袖舒默4日在社交媒体上发文称，共和党人应该为明年飙升的医保价格负责，"400万美国人将完全失去 医疗保险"。 美国总统特朗普则继续把"停摆"归咎于民主党。3日，监管"补充营养援助计划"的美国农业部表示将动用一笔 46.5亿美元的应急资金，作为该项目11月的部分食品救济金进行发放。然而，特朗普4日在社交媒体上发文 称，这些数千万低收入民众急需的救济金"只有在激进左翼民主党人 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has led to the impending depletion of funds for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), affecting approximately 42 million Americans, primarily low-income individuals, the disabled, and the elderly [1][3][4] - The shutdown has resulted in significant operational challenges for the aviation sector, with air traffic control personnel shortages leading to increased flight delays and cancellations [7][8][10] SNAP Program Impact - SNAP is set to run out of funds by October 31, with benefits ceasing on November 1, which will severely impact the livelihoods of 42 million Americans [3][4] - A federal judge has ordered the USDA to release emergency funds to ensure SNAP benefits can be distributed, criticizing the decision not to utilize $6 billion in emergency funds as "arbitrary" [3][5] - The USDA had previously announced that it would not provide funding for SNAP if the government shutdown continued, leading to legal actions from Democratic-led states seeking to access emergency funds [5][4] Aviation Sector Challenges - The FAA reported staffing issues at over 35 locations, particularly in the Northeast, due to the government shutdown, resulting in significant flight delays and cancellations [7][8] - On October 30, over 6,000 flights were delayed and more than 1,000 were canceled, with the situation expected to worsen as the shutdown continues [7][8][10] - The ongoing shutdown has raised concerns about the potential impact on air travel during the Thanksgiving holiday season, with warnings from officials about a possible "disaster" for the aviation industry [7][10] Economic Consequences - The Congressional Budget Office warned that the shutdown could reduce the annualized GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4, leading to an estimated loss of $7 billion to $14 billion in economic output [21] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that federal contractors have already incurred losses of approximately $12 billion during the first four weeks of the shutdown, with many small businesses facing cash flow crises [21]

据美国哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)当地时间28日报道，美国参议院以54票对45票的结果，再次未能推进临 时拨款法案，意味着政府"停摆"将继续。 报道称，这已是参议院民主党人第13次阻止由共和党支持的拨款法案。该法案旨在让美联邦机构运营资 金维持至11月21日。 由于该法案未包含民主党要求的医疗保健项目资金，也未对美国总统特朗普削减国会已批准资金的行为 施加限制，民主党拒绝提供必要的支持，导致法案无法达到在参议院推进所需的60票门槛。 另据英国《卫报》报道，当地时间28日，美联邦政府"停摆"进入第28天，僵局仍未出现任何化解迹象。 参议院两党议员在支出法案上持续陷入僵持，与此同时，一项关键的食品援助计划也濒临资金耗尽的边 缘。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has failed for the 13th time to advance a temporary funding bill, resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown [1] - The government shutdown has now entered its 28th day, with no signs of resolution [1] - The Senate is experiencing a deadlock over spending bills, while a critical food assistance program is nearing depletion of funds [1] Group 1 - The Senate voted 54 to 45 against the temporary funding bill, which aimed to keep federal agencies operational until November 21 [1] - The bill did not include funding for healthcare programs demanded by Democrats, nor did it impose restrictions on President Trump's cuts to previously approved congressional funding, leading to a lack of necessary support from Democrats [1]

Group 1 - The White House announced that due to Congress's failure to pass a temporary funding bill, critical data collection has been hindered, potentially leading to "devastating" economic consequences [1] - The government shutdown has entered its fourth week, marking the second-longest shutdown in U.S. history, with approximately 700,000 federal employees either furloughed or working without pay [1] - The core issue of the government shutdown stems from a stalemate between the two parties over healthcare benefits, preventing the passage of the temporary funding bill [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September was released to allow the Social Security Administration to calculate cost-of-living adjustments for millions of retirees and other beneficiaries, despite the ongoing government shutdown [1] - The CPI report is a crucial reference for the Federal Reserve in determining interest rate policies, with traders increasing bets on two more rate cuts by the end of the year following the September CPI data release [2]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 19 days as of October 19, due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare-related spending and other core issues, preventing the passage of a new temporary funding bill [1] - Both parties are firmly sticking to their positions and blaming each other for the impasse regarding the temporary funding bill [2] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson stated he does not plan to recall House members until the government reopens, accusing Democrats of "playing politics" [4] - Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries expressed willingness to negotiate but noted a lack of communication from Republicans since a meeting at the White House before the shutdown [4] Group 2: Implications of the Shutdown - Analysts believe the core reason for the prolonged shutdown is the deadlock over healthcare benefits, with both parties using the situation to advance their political agendas without a pressing desire to resolve the shutdown [5] - The Trump administration is reportedly using the shutdown as an opportunity to "streamline government," with expectations that over 10,000 federal positions may be cut [5] - The Democratic party is leveraging the shutdown to strengthen internal unity, as they previously faced a decline in support after compromising on a funding bill earlier this year [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The shutdown may continue as the Trump administration has found temporary measures to alleviate some pressures, such as reallocating funds to pay military personnel, which diminishes the urgency for bipartisan negotiations [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that approximately $8 billion from research and development funds has been used to pay military personnel to avoid salary disruptions due to government shutdown [1] - The Department of Defense sourced this $8 billion from leftover appropriations from the previous fiscal year, indicating potential legal risks for the Trump administration by reallocating congressionally approved funds for other purposes [1] - The Senate is expected to vote on a "clean" temporary funding bill for the tenth time, which requires 60 votes to advance but is anticipated to be rejected [3] Group 2 - The Senate will also vote on a procedural motion regarding the defense appropriations bill, which, if passed, could lead to comprehensive military funding legislation in the coming weeks [3] - Even if the government remains shut down, the resolution of military salary payments could be temporarily secured if the defense appropriations bill progresses [3] - If the temporary funding bill does not advance, the government shutdown may continue until October 20 [4]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on October 16 regarding the "clean" government temporary funding bill passed by the House, marking the tenth vote on this issue [2] - The bill requires 60 votes to advance, but media reports suggest it is likely to be rejected [2] - Additionally, the Senate will vote on a procedural motion for the Department of Defense funding bill, which also requires 60 votes to proceed [2] - If the motion passes, the defense funding bill could be approved within weeks, ensuring military personnel salaries are addressed even if the government remains in a shutdown [2] - The Senate is expected to recess after the vote, indicating that if the temporary funding bill does not advance, the government shutdown may continue until October 20 [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican temporary funding bill with a vote of 51 to 44, requiring 60 votes to proceed [2] Group 1 - The bill aimed to fund the government until the end of November [2]