Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon remains stable, and the inventory has increased on a weekly basis. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure and weak price transmission downstream. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,650 yuan/ton and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous settlement. The main contract held 176,563 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,774, a decrease of 209 from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon and 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in other regions were slightly stable [1]. - As of October 9, the total social inventory of industrial silicon was 545,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from before the National Day. The ordinary social warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 425,000 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC monomer production enterprises' operating rate was about 71%, and most enterprises had pre - sold orders. The stable raw material cost provided strong cost support, and the monomer factories were willing to hold prices [2]. Strategy - In the short term, conduct range operations. For the dry - season contracts, consider going long at low prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 51,280 yuan/ton and closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 84,987 lots (87,359 the previous day), and the trading volume was 201,311 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 24.00 (a 6.19% increase), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78GW (a 3.39% increase). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (-0.10% change), and the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW (-6.89% change) [4][5]. - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The prices of battery cells and components also remained stable [5][6]. - During the National Day, the polysilicon market transactions were light, and there was obvious resistance to high - priced resources. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and was expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5]. Strategy - In the short term, conduct range operations, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have not changed significantly. The futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. With low valuation, there may be room for the price to rise if relevant policies are introduced [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with high inventory pressure and weak short - term trading. The market is influenced by anti - involution policies and weak reality. In the long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The main contract 2511 opened at 8850 yuan/ton and closed at 8610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 390 yuan/ton (-4.33%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract was 206,977 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,202 lots, an increase of 69 lots from the previous day [2]. - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 (-50) yuan/ton [2]. - On the consumption side, the price of silicone DMC was stable at 10900 - 11200 yuan/ton. Last week, some domestic monomer enterprises slightly increased their DMC quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton, and this week the price remained stable, supported by cost, supply - demand, and expectations [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is recommended, and long positions can be considered for dry - season contracts at low prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 29, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,950 yuan/ton and closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous trading day. The open interest was 93,768 lots (101,486 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 158,112 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased by 10.78% to 22.60, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.80% to 16.23GW. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,100.00 tons, a 0.30% increase, and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only minor price changes in some products [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment has cooled. Polysilicon faces high inventory pressure, and the production reduction in October may be less than expected. Downstream silicon wafer price increases also face resistance [5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is recommended, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the futures market is slightly volatile. The current fundamentals have not changed significantly. The previous increase in the industrial silicon market was mainly due to capital behavior and news, but there is still pressure above. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity exit, the market may have room to rise [3]. - The polysilicon supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Spot prices still have some support, but policy implementation is in progress, leading to large market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, if the market corrects significantly, long positions can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,930 yuan/ton and closed at 8,925 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton (-2.30%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 273,696 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,963 lots, an increase of 161 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were slightly stable [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. Some monomer plants' pre - sales have been scheduled until the end of this month and early next month. Monomer plants' willingness to support prices has increased, but price increases face constraints. New orders have decreased, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term: conduct range operations. Medium - term: the valuation is low, and long positions can be considered for contracts during the dry season [3]. - There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 declined and then fluctuated. It opened at 50,900 yuan/ton and closed at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,091 lots, and the trading volume was 296,108 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices were stable. The price of N - type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 20.40 (with a month - on - month change of - 6.80%), and silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (with a month - on - month change of 1.93%). Polysilicon weekly output was 31,000 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (with a month - on - month change of 0.29%) [4][5]. - The center of the polysilicon transaction price moved slightly upward. The market was polarized. Resources below 52 yuan were more popular, while downstream acceptance of prices above 53 yuan was limited [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5][6]. Strategy - Short - term: conduct range operations. - There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [9]. - In the medium - to - long - term, if the market corrects significantly, long positions can be considered [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Neutral for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range operation for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have little change, with a slight increase in inventory. The recent rise in the industrial silicon futures market is mainly due to capital behavior and news, and there is still pressure above. If there are relevant capacity exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3] - Polysilicon's supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The 2511 main contract opened at 8,920 yuan/ton and closed at 8,905 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 285,052 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,871 lots, down 25 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). The silicon prices in many regions were stable, and the price of 97 silicon was also stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 18 was 543,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week [1] - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was 10,700 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand - based procurement rhythm. Monomer factories had a stronger willingness to hold prices, but price increases were restricted. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 53,200 yuan/ton and closed at 53,205 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day. The position was 122,834 lots (126,234 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 198,758 lots [4][5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 50.20 - 55.00 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons (up 3.79% month - on - month), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (up 1.93% month - on - month). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,200 tons (up 3.31% month - on - month), and the silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (up 0.29% month - on - month) [5] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, with only a slight decline in the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers [5][6] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon, short - term range operation for polysilicon [3][11] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's spot price follows the futures price with a slight increase, and the inventory remains flat. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the market may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, and the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on dips [3][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,715 yuan/ton and closed at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 287,771 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,093 lots, an increase of 48 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in many regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon was also slightly adjusted up [1] - As of September 11, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 539,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 119,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 420,000 tons, unchanged from last week [1] - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. After two weeks of low - level stability, downstream enterprises completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories have a stronger willingness to support prices [2] Strategy - The spot price follows the futures price with a slight increase, and the inventory remains flat. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there are policies, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures was strong, opening at 53,200 yuan/ton and closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the previous day. The position was 136,326 lots, and the trading volume was 278,296 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons, up 3.79% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW, down 1.78% month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,200 tons, up 3.31% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 13.88GW, up 0.73% month - on - month [7] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [7][8] Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously followed up. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on dips [9] Factors to Watch - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, factors to watch include the resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in the operating rate of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [6][11]

Group 1: Black Materials Market - The black building materials market is experiencing a high-level retreat, with coking coal and coke prices dropping nearly 2% [1] - Iron ore prices have risen to a four-month high, supported by a decrease in global iron ore shipments and a decline in port inventories [3][5] - The demand for iron ore remains supported despite a decrease in pig iron production and high furnace operating rates, indicating a potential for continued price strength [5] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have shown volatility, with a significant intraday increase of over 2%, currently reported at 43,200 yuan/ton [6] - The market anticipates potential policy changes regarding capacity exit, which could open up price levels to 45,000 yuan/ton if supported by various factors [8] - The industry is closely monitoring downstream demand and pricing dynamics, as well as upcoming policy meetings that may influence market sentiment [8][9] Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index saw an increase of over 8% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although it later stabilized to less than 2% [10] - The rise in the shipping index is also attributed to the recovery of the U.S. economy, which has boosted international trade demand [10] - Analysts expect the European shipping index to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic recovery [10]