Core Insights - In 2024, 20 out of 31 provinces in China experienced a decline in population, with only 8 provinces showing positive growth [1][2] - The Yangtze River Delta region has a total population of 238 million, with Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui showing varied population changes [1][2] Population Changes - Shanghai's population decreased by 71,900 to 24.8026 million, marking a natural growth rate decline of 1.53% [2][3] - Jiangsu's population remained stable at 85.26 million, experiencing its first zero growth since 1990 [3] - Zhejiang's population increased by 430,000 to 66.7 million, with a natural growth rate decline of 0.36% [2][3] - Anhui's population grew by 20,000 to 61.23 million, with a natural growth rate decline of 2.24% [2][3] Regional Highlights - In the Yangtze River Delta, Zhejiang's population growth is the second highest in the country, driven by economic vitality and policy support [2][3] - Anhui's capital, Hefei, has surpassed 10 million residents, contributing to the total of 18 cities in China with populations over 10 million [3] Policy Responses - Jiangsu has introduced subsidies for maternity leave, expanding support to first-time mothers [4] - Various cities in Zhejiang and Anhui have implemented one-time and regular birth subsidies to encourage higher birth rates [5] Migration Dynamics - Shanghai's registered population is 14.9677 million, with a significant drop in the number of incoming migrants, which decreased by 237,900 [5][6] - The importance of attracting external population is emphasized, with recommendations for lowering residency requirements and improving local services for migrants [6]

Population Growth and Birth Rates - In 2024, 31 provinces in China reported their resident population data, with 8 provinces experiencing positive population growth, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Xinjiang, Fujian, Hainan, Tibet, Anhui, and Shaanxi [1][5] - Guangdong had the highest population increase, with a total resident population of 127.8 million, an increase of 740,000 from the previous year, and a birth population of 1.13 million, marking its seventh consecutive year as the top birth province [1][5] - Zhejiang followed with a population increase of 430,000, despite a natural population decrease of 24,000, indicating a net inflow of 454,000 people [1][2] Population Dynamics - Some provinces, like Hubei, reported a decrease in resident population primarily due to natural decline, with a net inflow of 143,000 people [2] - In Shaanxi, the resident population reached 39.53 million, with a natural decrease of 17,000 but a mechanical increase of 37,000, driven by the growth of emerging industries [3] Birth Population and Rates - The top ten provinces for birth population accounted for 58.6% of the national total, with Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong having the highest birth numbers at 1.13 million, 762,000, and 649,000 respectively [5][6] - Among the 30 provinces with available birth data, 10 provinces reported a birth rate exceeding 8‰, predominantly located in western and southern regions [5][6] - The birth rate in Guangdong was reported at 8.89%, while other provinces like Guizhou had a notably high birth rate of 10.74% [6][7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the population changes across various provinces in China for the year 2024, indicating that most provinces have experienced a decline in their resident population, with only a few showing growth [2][3]. Population Growth and Decline - Among the 29 provinces that have reported their 2024 population data, only 9 provinces have seen an increase in their resident population, with Guangdong leading the growth by adding over 700,000 residents [2][4]. - The provinces with a population increase of 100,000 or more are limited to four, with Guangdong's growth being the most significant [2][3]. - Conversely, 9 provinces have reported a decline of over 100,000 residents, with Shandong experiencing the largest decrease at approximately 428,300 residents [11][12]. Guangdong Province - Guangdong's resident population reached 127.8 million, marking an increase of 740,000 from the previous year, reclaiming its position as the province with the highest population growth [4][5]. - The natural population growth in Guangdong contributed significantly to its overall increase, with a birth rate of 8.89‰ and a natural growth rate of 3.69‰ [5]. Zhejiang Province - In contrast, Zhejiang's population growth relied more on mechanical growth rather than natural increase, with a negative natural growth rate reported for both 2023 and 2024 [6][9]. - The province's population increased by 430,000 in 2024, but it still faced challenges with a declining birth rate [6][9]. Northeast Region - The northeastern provinces, particularly Jilin and Liaoning, have seen a resurgence in population decline, with both provinces losing over 200,000 residents in 2024 [7][12]. - The demographic challenges in these provinces are exacerbated by high elderly dependency ratios and low birth rates, contributing to their ongoing population decline [8][9]. Shandong Province - Shandong has faced continuous population decline for three consecutive years, with a reported decrease of 428,300 residents in 2024, the highest in the country [11][12]. - The province's natural growth rate has been negative for three years, indicating a concerning demographic trend [11]. Other Provinces - Other provinces experiencing significant population declines include Henan, Hunan, and Jiangxi, each losing over 100,000 residents in 2024 [12]. - The report indicates that the central region is particularly affected, with most provinces showing a downward trend in population [12].

Group 1 - The four major municipalities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) are experiencing a population crisis in 2024, with no growth in their resident populations [2][7] - Beijing's resident population is projected to be 21.83 million by the end of 2024, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous year [3] - Shanghai's resident population is expected to be 24.80 million, with a reduction of 71,900, marking the largest decline among major cities [4] - Chongqing's population is forecasted to be 31.90 million, down by 9,600, following a significant drop of 219,100 in 2023, the highest in the country [5] - Tianjin's population remains stable at 13.64 million, showing no growth [6] Group 2 - The overall population growth in key cities has significantly slowed down, moving away from rapid growth patterns seen in the past [10] - Shenzhen and Guangzhou are currently leading in population growth, contrasting with the declines in the four major municipalities [9] - The average annual population increase for Shenzhen from 2010 to 2020 was over 700,000, while current growth has dropped to below 200,000 [11][12] - From 2021 to 2024, only the four major municipalities have shown negative population growth [14] Group 3 - Beijing and Shanghai are categorized as one type of municipality, while Tianjin and Chongqing are classified as another, with differing population dynamics [18] - The population decline in Beijing and Shanghai is attributed to self-imposed population caps, with Beijing actively relocating non-capital functions [19][20] - In contrast, Tianjin and Chongqing have implemented talent attraction initiatives, such as Tianjin's "Haihe Talent Plan," but still face population declines [23][24] Group 4 - Tianjin's population decline is primarily due to industrial adjustments, with a significant reliance on outdated industries [28][37] - The city's industrial structure is heavily weighted towards traditional sectors, with new industries contributing less than 20% to industrial profits [33] - The natural population decrease in Tianjin is exacerbated by a birth rate of 4.47‰ and a death rate of 7.04‰ in 2023, leading to a natural growth rate of -2.57‰ [39] Group 5 - Chongqing's population decline is influenced by a high rural population with low income levels, leading to a weak population competitiveness [51][59] - The city has a significant rural demographic, with 933,020 residents in rural areas as of 2022, contributing to out-migration [52][54] - Despite a population decrease, Chongqing's automotive industry saw a 26.7% increase in value added in 2023, indicating potential for economic growth [71]