从经济结构看，农林渔业GDP占比11.64%，工业和建筑业37.65%，服务业42.75%，产品税减去产 品补贴占7.96%。最终消费同比增长7.95%，资产积累增长8.68%，货物和服务出口增长16.27%，进口增 长17.12%。 劳动生产率按现行价格预计为2.45亿越盾/人（约9809美元/人，同比增加626美元）；按可比价格计 算，增长6.83%，主要源于劳动者技能水平提升。 阮表示，2026年，根据国会和政府的经济社会发展计划，各部门和地方必须集中指导，致力实现 GDP达到两位数增长目标，同时保持宏观经济稳定，控制通胀并保障经济大局平衡。这是一项重大挑 战，需要政府、企业和全体人民共同努力，有效实现经济社会发展目标，为今后几年强劲增长注入动 力。 （原标题：越南统计局：2025年全国GDP增长8.02%） 越通社1月5日报道，越南财政部统计局局长阮氏香在当日举行的2025年第四季度及全年经济社会统 计数据新闻发布会上表示，2025年，越南克服面临诸多困难和挑战，全年国内生产总值（GDP）同比增 长8.02%，达到国会和政府目标，仅低于2022年增长水平。按现行价格计算，2025年GDP规模约12.8 ...

今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于1003元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报1003.70元/ 克，跌幅0.14%，最高上探至1006.41元/克，最低触及999.48元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡走 势。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于1003元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报1003.70 元/克，跌幅0.14%，最高上探至1006.41元/克，最低触及999.48元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡 走势。 【要闻速递】 分析人士认为，美国早已在格陵兰岛拥有广泛军事准入，丹麦更是北约重要盟友，无论获取资源还是控 制航道，都无需通过代价高昂的主权变更来实现。特朗普政府执意推动"夺岛"，更可能意在重塑跨大西 洋关系格局。 上月发布的国家安全战略中，特朗普政府将欧洲定位为意识形态与地缘政治对手，显露对盟友的敌意。 随着美欧裂痕加深，美方越发倾向绕过欧洲盟友，直接掌控战略要地和关键资源。 此举引发欧洲强烈反对。丹麦、法国、德国、意大利、波兰、西班牙、英国等7国领导人，以及北欧5国 外长6日发表联合声明，强调只有丹麦和格陵兰岛有权决定自身事务。欧洲舆论 ...

人民币升值，只是开始 20251225 摘要 Q&A 近期人民币汇率的升值趋势如何？其背后的主要推动因素是什么？ 从 8 月份开始，人民币汇率出现了一波明显的升值。截至目前，离岸人民币一 度突破 7.0 的整数关口，并在这一水平附近波动。自 12 月份以来，中国央行 在逆周期因子调节上已从负值转向正值，显示出对人民币温和升值速度的调控。 然而，即便如此，市场力量仍在推动人民币整体回升。从 8 月至今，人民币累 计升值 2.3%，其中美元走弱贡献了 1.6%，而人民币相对于一篮子货币的主动 升值贡献了 0.7%。这表明不仅美元贬值推动了人民币被动升值，同时也有中 国自身经济因素带来的主动升值。 年底时段是否是人民币汇率容易上升的窗口期？这种现象背后的原因是什么？ 年底通常是一个人民币汇率较容易上升的窗口期。过去几年中，除了 2024 年 外，在 2022 年和 2023 年的年底，人民币汇率都有明显的升值。这与企业在 逆周期因子已转正，表明对人民币升值速度进行温和调控，但市场力量 仍推动人民币升值。8 月至今，人民币累计升值 2.3%，美元走弱贡献 1.6%，主动升值贡献 0.7%，表明中国经济因素驱动人民币升 ...

全球就业与经济增长同步放缓，市场对人工智能（AI）冲击就业的讨论持续升温。 国际劳工组织（ILO）首席宏观经济学家埃克哈德·恩斯特（Ekkehard Ernst）近期在接受第一财经专访 时表示，ILO观察到的关键变化并非失业率上升，而是就业增长明显减速——过去一年，许多地区 的"劳动力短缺"现象已基本消失。 谈及AI影响，恩斯特直言，至少在当前阶段，外界明显"明显高估"了AI对就业市场的冲击。他表示， 10~15年前关于"40%~50%岗位将受（AI）影响"的早期预测并未出现；AI更常见的用途不是替代岗 位，而是接管例行性任务，从而重塑工作的内容与方式，帮助企业提升现有员工生产率，以及拓展业务 机会。 在他看来，目前真正可见的冲击更多集中在少数局部领域，例如软件工程领域，以及部分年轻求职者在 进入劳动力市场时面临的困难；面对技术冲击，社会保障体系的应对重点应是优先"保护人"，而非"保 护岗位"。 第一财经：你观察到过去一年全球劳动力市场发生了哪些主要变化？ 恩斯特：我们在国际劳工组织观察到的关键变化是经济增长和就业增长的放缓。去年我们发布报告时， 世界许多地区仍在面临劳动力短缺的问题，而这些短缺现象如今已经完 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a paradox where China's manufacturing sector exhibits strong global competitiveness despite academic reports indicating its labor productivity is significantly lower than that of the United States. The author argues that the methodology used in these studies is flawed, leading to incorrect conclusions about China's labor productivity [1][15]. Methodological Issues - Traditional methods of measuring labor productivity through value-added calculations can obscure differences in product quality and types, leading to inaccurate comparisons between countries [2]. - The classification differences between U.S. and Chinese manufacturing statistics contribute to misleading productivity comparisons. U.S. statistics include companies that do not manufacture products, while China only includes actual manufacturers [3][4]. - The use of purchasing power parity (PPP) indices to compare value-added across countries may not accurately reflect price differences, complicating productivity assessments [5]. Industry Comparisons - The research focuses on five key industries: shipbuilding, steel, electric vehicles, solar photovoltaic components, and cement. It finds that Chinese workers' per capita output is 2 to 3 times that of their U.S. counterparts, while nominal value-added is about 20% lower due to price differences [7][8]. - In the cement industry, China's per capita output is slightly higher than that of the U.S., but its nominal value-added is only 28% of the U.S. level, primarily due to significant price disparities [8]. Labor Productivity Metrics - The analysis indicates that in shipbuilding, steel, and electric vehicles, China's labor productivity is superior when measured by physical output. For instance, in shipbuilding, China's per capita output is 2.5 times that of the U.S. [16]. - The average nominal wage for Chinese workers is significantly lower than that of U.S. workers, which is attributed to the overall lower wage levels in China rather than lower productivity [8][15]. Trade Barriers and Their Impact - Trade barriers, such as tariffs, inflate domestic prices in the U.S., leading to higher nominal value-added figures without necessarily improving labor productivity [9][11]. - The structural price differences between the U.S. and China further complicate productivity comparisons, particularly in industries like electric vehicles and pharmaceuticals [12][13]. Global Competitive Advantage - China's manufacturing sector is increasingly moving up the value chain, focusing on high-end manufacturing while outsourcing low-end production to countries with lower wages. This strategy enhances China's global competitiveness [17]. - The article suggests that the U.S. should focus on expanding its advantages in high-tech sectors rather than attempting to regain lost ground in general manufacturing, which may lead to adverse economic outcomes [17].

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI technology is beginning to have a substantial impact on the job market, potentially altering the way central banks formulate policies [1][2] - Employers are reducing hiring plans due to AI's influence, which may be contributing to a slowdown in employment growth [2] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the need for a third interest rate cut in December, although futures markets indicate that investors are betting on continued rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Significant capital investment, amounting to trillions of dollars, is expected to flow into data center construction, potentially leading to major economic changes, particularly in productivity [3] - Capital investment typically enhances labor productivity and may achieve higher output growth in the long term without exerting inflationary pressure [3] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring how AI-driven investment trends could affect the economy's potential growth rate and natural interest rate levels [3]

Core Points - The "2025 National Vocational and Productivity Expo" will be held on November 1-2 in Phnom Penh, organized by the Ministry of Labor and Vocational Training of Cambodia [1] - The expo aims to connect job seekers, employers, and educational institutions, enhancing public awareness of labor productivity [1] - The event is expected to attract 150 exhibitors, set up over 180 booths, and provide more than 30,000 job opportunities, with an anticipated attendance of over 40,000 visitors [1] Industry Insights - The expo is supported by various international organizations, including the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) [1] - It serves as a significant opportunity for Cambodian youth to understand job market demands and seek employment [1] - An online platform will be available for job seekers nationwide to apply for positions, ensuring broader access to opportunities [1]

Economic Growth - Australia's GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is projected at 1.4%, consistent with the previous fiscal year but lower than 3.6% in 2022-2023 and 4.3% in 2021-2022 [1][2] - In current price terms, the GDP growth for 2024-2025 is expected to be 3.7%, down from 4% in 2023-2024 and significantly lower than 10.3% in 2022-2023 [2] Per Capita and Productivity - Per capita GDP in Australia is anticipated to decline by 0.3% in 2024-2025, following a 1% decrease in 2023-2024 [2] - Labor productivity, measured as GDP per hour worked, is expected to decrease by 0.7% in 2024-2025, contrasting with a 0.1% increase in the previous fiscal year [2][3] National Savings and Wealth - The household saving rate is projected to rise from 3% in the previous fiscal year to 6.1% in 2024-2025 [2][3] - National net saving is estimated to be approximately 114.2 billion AUD (about 529.73 billion RMB), down from 137.3 billion AUD in 2023-2024 [2][3] - National net worth is expected to reach around 21.4 trillion AUD, an increase from 20.6 trillion AUD in the previous fiscal year [2][3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the relationship between labor productivity, the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and exchange rates, using real GDP per capita as a measure of labor productivity to assess currency valuation and future exchange rate trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Real Effective Exchange Rates - The Balassa-Samuelson effect indicates that "lagging" economies experience a continuous appreciation of their real effective exchange rates as they catch up to "developed" economies [1][3]. - From 2005 to 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese yuan appreciated, supporting the notion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, with predictions of further appreciation in 2025 and 2026 based on OECD forecasts [1][4]. - A comparison of 15 economies' labor productivity data for 2024 reveals that the Indonesian rupiah, Swiss franc, and South African rand are overvalued by over 20%, while the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by over 20% [6][9]. Group 2: Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The analysis predicts that in the next year, the US dollar will appreciate slightly against the euro and pound, weaken against the yuan initially, and then strengthen, while it will weaken against the yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Korean won [2][10]. - The euro and pound are expected to weaken moderately against the yuan, while the yen, Korean won, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar may rebound against the yuan after short-term pressure [2][23]. - The analysis suggests that the yuan is slightly overvalued by 3.45% relative to labor productivity, indicating that the appreciation of the yuan in 2025 and 2026 may be limited [6][9]. Group 3: Labor Productivity and Currency Valuation - The article emphasizes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect provides a theoretical framework linking labor productivity to real exchange rates, which is crucial for medium to long-term exchange rate assessments [4][10]. - The analysis of labor productivity and actual effective exchange rates shows that the yuan's valuation is close to equilibrium, with slight overvaluation, while other currencies like the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen show significant undervaluation [6][9]. - The relationship between labor productivity and bilateral exchange rates indicates that the yuan may face appreciation pressures in the coming years, particularly against currencies like the euro and pound [23][24].

Economic Recovery and Challenges - Greece's economy is gradually recovering from over a decade of debt crisis, fiscal tightening, and external aid, supported by a decrease in debt ratios, improved fiscal discipline, and some structural reforms [1] - Despite the apparent improvement, Greece's economic development faces multiple intertwined risks that could undermine sustainable growth and potentially lead to renewed fiscal and financial difficulties [1] Wage and Productivity Discrepancy - There is a disconnect between wage growth and productivity in Greece, with wages rising faster than productivity in some sectors, which could lead to a vicious cycle of increased costs for businesses and reduced investment motivation [2] - The central bank governor emphasized that wage increases must be based on productivity growth to avoid new fiscal and debt risks, stating that income cannot increase without efficiency improvements and structural reforms [2] Inflation Concerns - Greece's average inflation rate has recently exceeded the Eurozone average, with the central bank raising its inflation forecast for 2025 to 3.1% from 2.5%, indicating internal supply-demand imbalances [3] - Persistent inflation could increase wage pressures, creating a cost-push inflation spiral that threatens macroeconomic stability, necessitating a focus on productivity enhancement through digital transformation and capital upgrades [3] Credit Rating and Structural Issues - International rating agencies, despite Greece's improved debt ratios and strong fiscal performance, have expressed caution regarding the sustainability of these improvements, indicating that credit ratings are unlikely to rise in the short term [4] - Structural inefficiencies in public sector operations, including slow administrative processes and judicial inefficiencies, hinder domestic investment and foreign capital inflow, affecting Greece's attractiveness to investors [4] Reform Execution and Demographic Challenges - The lack of effective implementation of structural reforms raises concerns about Greece's economic future, as reforms often remain at the policy level without becoming institutionalized [5] - Greece faces demographic challenges, including an aging population that reduces labor supply and increases social security burdens, further constraining fiscal space [5] External Environment Risks - Greece's economy is sensitive to external factors such as international trade tensions, potential tariffs on EU goods, and geopolitical uncertainties, which could significantly impact export revenues and investment inflows [6] - The reliance on EU funds for investment and growth poses a risk; if these funds diminish, and domestic private investment does not compensate, economic growth could slow sharply [7] Interconnected Risks - The identified risks are interrelated, where rising wages without corresponding productivity gains can lead to increased business costs and reduced investment, ultimately constraining economic potential and fiscal health [7] - Structural issues and slow reform implementation contribute to insufficient external investment confidence, exacerbating the challenges faced by Greece's economy [7]