农产品产量预估

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油脂油料早报-20250520
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 03:57
Group 1: Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending May 15, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 217,842 tons, lower than the market forecast of 300,000 - 550,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 439,545 tons [8] - As of the week ending May 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%, the previous week was 48%, last year's same - period was 50%, and the five - year average was 53%. The emergence rate was 34%, the previous week was 17%, last year's same - period was 25%, and the five - year average was 23% [8] - Private exporters reported the export sale of 145,000 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2024/25 market year [8] - Abiove raised the forecast of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 169.7 million tons, previously 169.6 million tons, and slightly lowered the export volume forecast to 108.2 million tons, previously 108.5 million tons. It maintained the forecasts of soybean oil production, soybean meal export volume, and soybean meal production [8] - From the first three weeks of May, Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 712,426.66 tons, a 11.34% increase compared to the daily average export volume in May of the previous year [8] - In April 2025, China's palm oil imports were 160,000 tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase. From January to April, the imports were 540,000 tons, a 22.8% year - on - year decrease. The January - April soybean oil imports were 20,000 tons, a 69.5% year - on - year decrease. The April rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 180,000 tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase, and the January - April imports were 910,000 tons, a 35.6% year - on - year increase [8] - From May 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 8.50% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 6.34%, and oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% [8] Group 2: Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 13 - 19, 2025 are provided [1]
年度大豆产量预估上调
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange raised the forecast for the country's 2024/25 soybean production to 4,850 tons, up from the previous 4,550 tons, and predicted the 2025/26 wheat production to be 2,100 tons, higher than the 2,010 tons in 2024/25 [1] - If China and the US fail to resolve trade disputes, US soybean exports are expected to decrease by 20%, and the price paid to farmers will decline [1] - Indonesia increased the special export tax on crude palm oil from 7.5% to 10% of the reference price of crude palm oil, and adjusted the special export tax on refined palm oil products to 4.75%-9.5% [1] - India's palm oil imports in a certain month decreased by 24.29% month-on-month, while soybean oil imports increased by 1.6% and sunflower oil imports decreased by 5.5% [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Annual Production Forecast - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production forecast was raised to 4,850 tons, and the 2025/26 wheat production forecast is 2,100 tons [1] US Soybean Exports - If trade disputes remain unresolved, US soybean exports may drop from the initial forecast of 1.865 billion bushels to 1.5 billion bushels, and the average price paid to farmers is expected to fall to $9.10 per bushel in 2025/26 [1] Indonesia's Palm Oil Policy - Indonesia increased the special export tax on crude palm oil and adjusted that on refined palm oil products, aiming to raise funds for biodiesel blending and other projects [1] India's Oilseeds Imports - India's palm oil imports decreased by 24.29% month-on-month, soybean oil imports increased by 1.6%, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 5.5% [1] Spot Prices - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions showed fluctuations [2]