Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's independence is questioned by David Zervos, a potential successor to Chairman Powell, who also suggests that Powell leans politically to the left [1] Group 1 - Zervos supports President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's calls for interest rate cuts, arguing that the Federal Reserve's policies are too tight [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the bank maintains a neutral outlook on US stocks, expecting only one rate cut by the end of the year, and has downgraded sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to "neutral" [1][2] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the decision [1] - The Fed's assessment of the US economy has been downgraded, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous statements describing steady expansion [1] Group 2 - The impact of the trade war on US inflation and overall economic activity remains unclear, and with the job market stable, the likelihood of a rate cut in September is low [2] - The bank notes that major central banks are expected to slow their rate-cutting pace, and concerns about fiscal outlook are rising, leading to a downgrade of sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to neutral [2] - Despite the recent rise in US stocks supported by strong performance from leading tech companies, valuations are significantly high, and the opportunity for US stocks to outperform other markets in the short to medium term is limited [2]

Group 1 - The Israel-Iran conflict has caused significant volatility in the energy market, particularly in oil prices, but the overall global impact is expected to be low due to Iran's strong motivation to avoid large-scale war and ensure oil output in the Persian Gulf [1] - A potential easing of tensions in the Middle East could lead to a decrease in energy prices, which may help suppress inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider interest rate cuts this summer [1] - If the conflict escalates, energy prices may surge, leading to sustained high global inflation and a prolonged period of high short-term interest rates in the U.S., negatively impacting stock and fixed income markets [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets have remained relatively calm following the bombing incident, primarily due to stable oil prices and the dollar, which are key factors influencing emerging market stock performance [2] - The investment outlook remains cautiously optimistic, as the main drivers for emerging market performance in 2025 are still intact, despite potential geopolitical tensions [2] - In uncertain market conditions, bonds provide relative stability, and the investment portfolio is positioned for economic slowdown and normalization of the yield curve [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating a stable economic activity and employment market, but highlighting uncertainties regarding economic outlook and tariffs [1][2] - HSBC announced that its prime rate remains unchanged at 5.25%, with potential adjustments depending on the U.S. interest rate trends and local business strategies [1][2] - The recent consumer price index (CPI) for March reported at 2.4%, with core CPI at 2.8%, both figures showing a decline and falling below market expectations, suggesting a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the year if inflation continues to decrease or unemployment rises [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong banking system's surplus has increased to HKD 174 billion, driven by a surge in demand for Hong Kong dollars due to a vibrant stock market and significant IPO activities [2] - The one-month HIBOR has dropped to 2.09%, the lowest level since September 2022, indicating a positive impact on mortgage interest expenses for homeowners despite the prime rate remaining unchanged [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting the potential for gold to reach $3,200, influenced by various factors including U.S.-China relations, interest rate movements, and the economic environment in the U.S. [4][28] Summary by Sections CFTC Data and Market Sentiment - The article emphasizes the importance of the CFTC data released weekly, which reflects market sentiment towards precious metals and short/medium-term price judgments [3][4]. Gold Price Trends - As of March 31, international gold prices reached a new high of $3,100, with a potential to stabilize around $3,200 before further movements depending on market focus [4][28]. - The article notes that gold prices have risen significantly since last November, when they dropped to around $2,590 [4][28]. Fund Positioning - As of March 25, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3.7% to 599 tons, marking the 76th consecutive week of net long positions [5][9]. - The article indicates that the net long positions in silver also fell, while platinum saw a significant increase in short positions [5][9]. Market Dynamics - The article highlights that despite rising gold prices, there is currently a lack of excessive greed in the market, which could indicate further upward potential [4][27]. - It also mentions that the performance of gold and other risk assets may be affected by fluctuations in the U.S. stock market [4][28]. Economic Indicators - The article discusses the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June, which could further influence gold prices [26][28]. - It suggests that the market is currently pricing in multiple rate cuts, which could lead to increased volatility in the dollar and subsequently benefit gold prices [26][28]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that geopolitical risks and economic conditions will play a crucial role in shaping the future of gold prices, with a particular focus on the potential for a significant downturn in copper prices due to changing demand dynamics [19][29]. - It concludes that the next 12 to 24 months will be critical for the U.S. economy, especially if inflation pressures resurface alongside interest rate cuts [32][28].