Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,854, up 0.86% for the day and up 28.89% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.74% to 5,578, with a year-to-date increase of 24.85% [1] - The Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.20% to 48,367, with a year-to-date increase of 13.69% [1] - The S&P 500 Index fell 0.14% to 6,896, with a year-to-date increase of 17.25% [1] - The Nasdaq Index dropped 0.24% to 23,419, with a year-to-date increase of 21.27% [1] Currency and Commodity Performance - The Renminbi Index is at 97.640, down 0.59% over the last month but up 1.79% over six months [2] - Brent crude oil is priced at $62.040 per barrel, down 0.55% over the last month and down 4.14% over six months [2] - Gold is priced at $4,373.23 per ounce, up 3.31% over the last month and up 32.37% over six months [2] - Silver has seen a significant increase of 28.60% over the last month, now priced at $74.616 per ounce, and up 106.52% over six months [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that most officials expect further rate cuts if inflation decreases as anticipated [10] - As of the end of September, China's banking sector had $18,114 billion in foreign financial assets and $14,399 billion in foreign liabilities, resulting in a net asset of $3,716 billion [11] - The total social logistics volume in China for the first eleven months increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 4.5% in November [12] Company-Specific News - Pop Mart's second-hand prices for blind boxes have significantly dropped, with average prices falling from 1,478 RMB to 632 RMB [13] - Kubo Medical has invested $15 million to acquire a stake in Valgen from Qiming Medical, aiming to enhance its capabilities in cardiopulmonary disease diagnostics and treatment [14] - CloudTop New Drug has confirmed that its original drug "Nai Fu Kang" remains under effective patent protection in China [15][16] - MicroPort Medical has terminated its merger with MicroPort Brain Science due to control issues following the appointment of an independent non-executive director [18] IPO and Market Activity - Six newly listed stocks closed above their offering prices, with Ying Silicon Smart and May Day Vision showing strong performances, rising nearly 25% and 30% respectively [5] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a total turnover of approximately 199.8 billion HKD, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 219 points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, but uncertainties regarding inflation and employment remain [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The reduction in interest rates is expected to positively influence the housing market and the economy, as well as lower borrowing costs [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has noted that the recent economic growth in Hong Kong, such as a 3.8% increase in the third quarter, is strong in both exports and consumption, which is expected to have a positive effect on consumer spending [1] Group 2: Response to Local Events - In response to the fire at the Hong Fu Court in Tai Po, the HKMA and the banking sector have quickly implemented two rounds of measures totaling 11 initiatives to assist victims [1] - The situation regarding mortgages at Hong Fu Court is complex, and discussions are ongoing with various stakeholders, including the government and legal professionals, to develop a solution [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's macroeconomic research head, Rob Subbaraman, anticipates a 2.4% growth in the US economy next year, driven by increased AI investment and a more accommodative economic environment, while core inflation remains close to 3% [1] Economic Outlook - The US is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points this year, with no cuts anticipated from January to May next year, followed by two cuts in June and September [1] - Concerns are raised regarding the lack of significant fiscal consolidation in the US, with expectations of increased government spending on defense, aging society, climate change-related disasters, and interest payments, leading to greater fiscal pressure [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The increased fiscal pressure may compel the US government to push the Federal Reserve for more rate cuts or to encourage financial institutions to purchase more government bonds, potentially resulting in higher inflation in the long term [1] Market Predictions - Nomura predicts that Asian stock markets will perform better in 2026, attracting more capital inflows, and highlights Asia as a manufacturer of AI phenomena [1] - The global head of foreign exchange strategy at Nomura, Chen Liwei, forecasts that the US dollar will remain stable in the first quarter of next year, but the dollar index (DXY) is expected to depreciate by approximately 5% over the year, with downward pressure still present in the first quarter [1]

"12月美股走势大概率『震荡上行』，波动率或显著上升。"著名经济学家宋清辉解释，美联储下月若续减息，将对美 股情绪和估值构成利好，反之市场短期将面临冲击，但在明年初进一步减息预期下，指数调整空间预计有限。与此同 时，12月通常是机构"锁定收益、调仓换股"的关键窗口，部分获利盘或兑现，但整体趋势偏正面。他建议，将科技股 作为长期主线，短期以"分批布局"为宜，"减息逻辑下，利率敏感和周期行业存在补涨空间，年末更多是节奏和波动 管理的问题"。 "12月美股走势大概率『震荡上行』，波动率或显著上升。"著名经济学家宋清辉解释，美联储下月若续减息，将对美股情绪和估 值构成利好，反之市场短期将面临冲击，但在明年初进一步减息预期下，指数调整空间预计有限。与此同时，12月通常是机 构"锁定收益、调仓换股"的关键窗口，部分获利盘或兑现，但整体趋势偏正面。他建议，将科技股作为长期主线，短期以"分批 布局"为宜，"减息逻辑下，利率敏感和周期行业存在补涨空间，年末更多是节奏和波动管理的问题"。 ●瑞银CIO团队认为，美国科技公司庞大的资本支出有望持续推动AI行业增长。 资料图片 瑞银CIO团队强调，美国科技公司正加大对AI基础设施领域 ...

Group 1 - The market has shown resilience in a volatile environment, reaching historical highs, with expectations for growth driven by policy in major Asian economies like China, India, and Japan, while ASEAN growth is primarily supported by domestic policies [1] - The chief economist of Eastspring Investment forecasts a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve in December 2025 or January 2026, followed by an additional 50 basis points cut in 2026 [1] - Inflation in Asia, except for South Korea and Taiwan, is below central bank targets and historical averages, leading to expectations of rate cuts in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand [1] Group 2 - The main risks to monetary policy and economic growth predictions stem from U.S. inflation and the strength of the dollar, which could impact the Fed's ability to cut rates and affect risk asset prices [2] - Trade policy negotiations may cause cyclical fluctuations, but the severity of these shocks is expected to be less than in the first half of 2025 [2] - Ongoing domestic policy stimulus measures are anticipated to be sufficient to buffer against related shocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is experiencing rare internal divisions regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with a 50% chance of interest rate cuts in December due to hawkish concerns about inflation risks. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 may be overly optimistic, and unless there is an unexpected economic downturn, no cuts are anticipated in the first half of 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to benefit from a significant increase in capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence in 2025, further supported by the capital expenditure incentives from the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1] - The anticipated effects of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at the end of 2025 are expected to extend into 2026, providing additional support for economic growth [1] Labor Market - The employment market is projected to shift from a current state of low job additions and minimal layoffs to a phase of expansion [1] Inflation Risks - Inflation remains a primary risk, with U.S. government debt exceeding 120% of GDP. Policies such as tariffs and immigration restrictions may exacerbate inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's goal of achieving a 2% inflation target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to lower its base rate to 4.25% [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve aligns with market expectations, with a total decrease of 1.5% since September of the previous year [1] - The future direction of U.S. monetary policy remains uncertain, as the Federal Reserve has indicated there is no preset path for interest rates [1] Group 2: Impact on Hong Kong - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's president noted that the recent interest rate cut could have a positive effect on the stability of the residential market in Hong Kong [1] - If the Federal Reserve continues to lower rates, the Hong Kong interbank offered rate will also decline, which could positively impact the economy and the real estate market [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The operation of Hong Kong's monetary and financial markets is described as smooth and orderly, with the Hong Kong dollar interbank rates closely aligned with U.S. dollar rates [1] - The residential property market in Hong Kong has shown stability over the past six months, although it remains influenced by various factors such as the economy, employment, and supply-demand dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the negative impact of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown on the economy and the ongoing challenges faced by the Federal Reserve due to a lack of official data [1] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reignited market interest in small-cap stocks, which have outperformed large-cap stocks by nearly 4% since April [2] - Employment data has shown a concerning trend, with a reported loss of 91,100 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, raising investor concerns about data reliability [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to an increased allocation to U.S. small-cap stocks, shifting the allocation stance to neutral for large-cap stocks [2] - The macro environment is favorable for growth stocks, particularly in the AI/technology sector, prompting a shift towards growth-oriented investments [2] - The company maintains a low allocation to bonds due to inflation and fiscal stimulus financing demands, which may keep interest rates under pressure [2]

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the best lending rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125% from 5.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375%. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 142 basis points by December 2026 [1] - UBS anticipates that the ongoing rate cuts will support short-term residential transaction volumes, benefiting developers and highly leveraged companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), Hang Lung Properties (00101), and Kerry Properties (00683) [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, private residential transaction volumes have increased by 13% to 15%. The projected total for 2025 is 19,400 transactions for new properties and 38,000 for second-hand properties, comparable to levels seen in 2018-2019 [2] - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, property prices remain weak, with the CCL index remaining stable throughout the year due to ample short-term supply. Developers' higher pricing strategies have met with low buyer acceptance [2] - UBS expects property prices to remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory is absorbed [2] Group 3 - Among developers, UBS favors Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties for their expected performance, while also showing preference for Hang Lung Properties due to reduced interest expenses from declining HIBOR [3] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value from 40% to 35% [3] - The current dividend yield for Sino Land is 5.8%, similar to that of Hang Lung Properties, with UBS noting that the market has not fully recognized its HKD 49.5 billion cash advantage, which supports dividends and high-profit land acquisitions [3]

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the US Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the best lending rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125% from 5.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375%. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 142 basis points by December 2026 [1] - UBS anticipates that the continued rate cuts will support short-term residential transaction volumes, benefiting developers and highly leveraged companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), Hang Lung Properties (00101), and Kerry Properties (00683) [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, private residential transaction volumes have increased by 13% to 15%. The projected total for 2025 is 19,400 for first-hand and 38,000 for second-hand transactions, comparable to levels seen in 2018-2019 [2] - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, property prices remain weak, with the CCL index stable throughout the year due to ample short-term supply. Developers' higher pricing strategies have met with low buyer acceptance [2] - UBS expects property prices to remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory is digested [2] Group 3 - Among developers, UBS favors Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties for their expected superior performance compared to peers, while also showing preference for Hang Lung Properties due to reduced interest expenses from declining HIBOR [3] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value from 40% to 35%, supported by strong sales at Victoria Harbour and The Peak [3] - The current dividend yield for Sino Land is 5.8%, similar to Hang Lung Properties, with UBS noting that the market has not fully reflected its HKD 49.5 billion cash advantage, which can support dividends and high-profit land acquisitions [3]