Group 1 - UBS reports that following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the best lending rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125% from 5.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375%. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 142 basis points by December 2026 [1] - UBS anticipates that the ongoing rate cuts will support short-term residential transaction volumes, benefiting developers and highly leveraged companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), Hang Lung Properties (00101), and Kerry Properties (00683) [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, private residential transaction volumes have increased by 13% to 15%. The projected total for 2025 is 19,400 transactions for new properties and 38,000 for second-hand properties, comparable to levels seen in 2018-2019 [2] - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, property prices remain weak, with the CCL index remaining stable throughout the year due to ample short-term supply. Developers' higher pricing strategies have met with low buyer acceptance [2] - UBS expects property prices to remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory is absorbed [2] Group 3 - Among developers, UBS favors Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties for their expected performance, while also showing preference for Hang Lung Properties due to reduced interest expenses from declining HIBOR [3] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value from 40% to 35% [3] - The current dividend yield for Sino Land is 5.8%, similar to that of Hang Lung Properties, with UBS noting that the market has not fully recognized its HKD 49.5 billion cash advantage, which supports dividends and high-profit land acquisitions [3]

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the US Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the best lending rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125% from 5.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375%. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 142 basis points by December 2026 [1] - UBS anticipates that the continued rate cuts will support short-term residential transaction volumes, benefiting developers and highly leveraged companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), Hang Lung Properties (00101), and Kerry Properties (00683) [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, private residential transaction volumes have increased by 13% to 15%. The projected total for 2025 is 19,400 for first-hand and 38,000 for second-hand transactions, comparable to levels seen in 2018-2019 [2] - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, property prices remain weak, with the CCL index stable throughout the year due to ample short-term supply. Developers' higher pricing strategies have met with low buyer acceptance [2] - UBS expects property prices to remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory is digested [2] Group 3 - Among developers, UBS favors Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties for their expected superior performance compared to peers, while also showing preference for Hang Lung Properties due to reduced interest expenses from declining HIBOR [3] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value from 40% to 35%, supported by strong sales at Victoria Harbour and The Peak [3] - The current dividend yield for Sino Land is 5.8%, similar to Hang Lung Properties, with UBS noting that the market has not fully reflected its HKD 49.5 billion cash advantage, which can support dividends and high-profit land acquisitions [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - The Fed is expected to cut rates two more times this year before pausing, indicating a shift in focus from inflation risks to labor market concerns [1][1] - The Fed's economic forecast highlights this change in stance, confirming market expectations for two additional rate cuts this year [1][1] Group 2 - Future rate predictions for 2026 may see increased cuts, especially with a potential new chairperson taking over in May 2026, which could conflict with the 2% inflation target [1] - Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggest a desire for broader reforms within the Federal Reserve, indicating that future responses may differ significantly from past actions [1][1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Canadian dollar is maintained as neutral to bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The global market is in a super interest - rate decision week. The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep rates unchanged. The weakening of the Canadian dollar is due to factors such as the poor economic fundamentals of Canada and external risks [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Economic Data and Interest - Rate Expectations - US inflation growth in August met economists' expectations, with the CPI rising 2.9% year - on - year and core inflation rising 3.1% year - on - year [1] - The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 2.75% in July, the fourth consecutive time. Officials discussed rate cuts but decided to maintain. Traders expect a 0.25 - point rate cut this month due to the shrinking economy and poor employment [2] - Canada's Q2 GDP shrank 1.6% year - on - year, the first contraction in nearly two years and the largest since the COVID - 19 pandemic, worse than the expected 0.6% decline. The unemployment rate in August rose to 7.1% from 6.9% in July, the highest in 9 years [2] Currency Outlook - The Canadian dollar is short - term bearish. The US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate is around 1.376 and is expected to fluctuate between 1.372 and 1.392 in the short term [3]

Group 1: US Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole Summit hinted at a potential interest rate cut, surprising the market[1] - Market expectations for a 0.25% rate cut in September have risen to nearly 90% according to Bloomberg interest rate futures[1] - The US Dollar Index fell nearly 1% following the dovish comments from Powell, indicating potential opportunities for other currencies[1] Group 2: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's Q2 GDP growth accelerated to an annualized 1%, surpassing market expectations of 0.4%[2] - The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.5% during the July meeting, aligning with market forecasts[2] - The Bank of Japan raised its core consumer inflation forecast for the fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, reflecting ongoing food price increases[2] - There are indications from Bank of Japan officials that a rate hike may occur before the end of the year, influenced by the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance[2] Group 3: Currency Trends - The Japanese Yen previously fell to approximately 150.92 against the US Dollar, marking a new low since March, but has since recovered to around 147.6[2] - With the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates and the Bank of Japan considering tightening, the interest rate differential between the two currencies is expected to narrow, making the Yen attractive for buying at lower levels[2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that China Hongqiao's stock price has over an 80% chance of rising in the next 30 days due to favorable market conditions and company actions [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, which positively impacted commodity prices [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption off-season is expected to lead to increased demand during the consumption peak season [1] - Lower inventory levels and the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts are anticipated to support aluminum prices at high levels [1] Group 2: Company Actions - China Hongqiao recently announced a stock buyback, which is expected to drive the stock price up in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's independence is questioned by David Zervos, a potential successor to Chairman Powell, who also suggests that Powell leans politically to the left [1] Group 1 - Zervos supports President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's calls for interest rate cuts, arguing that the Federal Reserve's policies are too tight [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the bank maintains a neutral outlook on US stocks, expecting only one rate cut by the end of the year, and has downgraded sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to "neutral" [1][2] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the decision [1] - The Fed's assessment of the US economy has been downgraded, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous statements describing steady expansion [1] Group 2 - The impact of the trade war on US inflation and overall economic activity remains unclear, and with the job market stable, the likelihood of a rate cut in September is low [2] - The bank notes that major central banks are expected to slow their rate-cutting pace, and concerns about fiscal outlook are rising, leading to a downgrade of sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to neutral [2] - Despite the recent rise in US stocks supported by strong performance from leading tech companies, valuations are significantly high, and the opportunity for US stocks to outperform other markets in the short to medium term is limited [2]

Group 1 - The Israel-Iran conflict has caused significant volatility in the energy market, particularly in oil prices, but the overall global impact is expected to be low due to Iran's strong motivation to avoid large-scale war and ensure oil output in the Persian Gulf [1] - A potential easing of tensions in the Middle East could lead to a decrease in energy prices, which may help suppress inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider interest rate cuts this summer [1] - If the conflict escalates, energy prices may surge, leading to sustained high global inflation and a prolonged period of high short-term interest rates in the U.S., negatively impacting stock and fixed income markets [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets have remained relatively calm following the bombing incident, primarily due to stable oil prices and the dollar, which are key factors influencing emerging market stock performance [2] - The investment outlook remains cautiously optimistic, as the main drivers for emerging market performance in 2025 are still intact, despite potential geopolitical tensions [2] - In uncertain market conditions, bonds provide relative stability, and the investment portfolio is positioned for economic slowdown and normalization of the yield curve [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating a stable economic activity and employment market, but highlighting uncertainties regarding economic outlook and tariffs [1][2] - HSBC announced that its prime rate remains unchanged at 5.25%, with potential adjustments depending on the U.S. interest rate trends and local business strategies [1][2] - The recent consumer price index (CPI) for March reported at 2.4%, with core CPI at 2.8%, both figures showing a decline and falling below market expectations, suggesting a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the year if inflation continues to decrease or unemployment rises [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong banking system's surplus has increased to HKD 174 billion, driven by a surge in demand for Hong Kong dollars due to a vibrant stock market and significant IPO activities [2] - The one-month HIBOR has dropped to 2.09%, the lowest level since September 2022, indicating a positive impact on mortgage interest expenses for homeowners despite the prime rate remaining unchanged [2]