瀚亚投资首席经济学家 Ray Farris 表示，美联储将在2025年12月或2026年1月的会议下调联邦基金利率 25个基点，并在2026年再减息50个基点。在亚洲，除韩国和中国台湾省的通胀与央行目标相符，各国通 胀均低于央行目标及历史平均水平。这种情况下，该行预期中国、印度、印尼、菲律宾及泰国将采取减 息措施。 智通财经APP获悉，瀚亚投资(Eastspring Investment)投资总监 Vis Nayar 表示，今年的市况证明，市场能 够在持续波动的环境下逆势而上，并创下历史新高。展望2026年，该行预期中国、印度及日本等亚洲巨 头将受惠政策驱动的机会，东盟国家的增长则主要受其国内政策推动，至于北亚则受益于全球人工智能 (AI)基础设施扩张。亚洲市场内部增长分化及日益集中的市场结构，更突显了谨慎且主动管理投资组合 配置以创造超额收益的重要性。 瀚亚投资指出，其货币政策与经济增长预测的主要风险来自美国通胀及美元走势。若美国通胀高于预 期，或能迫使美联储暂停减息，进而导致风险资产价格下跌、美元走强，有机会使其他主要央行停止减 息。贸易政策谈判亦可能引发周期性波动，然而，这些冲击的严重程度或低于2025 ...

普徕仕表示，通胀仍是主要风险。在美国政府债务占国内生产总值(GDP)比重超过120%的情况下，关税 和移民限制等政策或加剧通胀压力，令美联储难以实现2%通胀目标。 2025年美国经济受惠于人工智能相关的资本开支大幅提升，而《大而美法案》的资本开支优惠政策将进 一步强化这一利好因素。该行认为，美联储2025年底的减息效应料将延续至2026年，进一步支持经济增 长。就业市场有望突破目前新增职位偏低但裁员亦少的僵局，转向扩张。 普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci就美国经济前景表示，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)内部出现罕见 分歧，加上鹰派委员对通胀上行风险的忧虑，令12月减息机率为五成。 市场对2026年减息的预期可能 过于乐观，美联储或无法在明年减息。除非经济意外转弱，预料2026年上半年不会减息。随着下一任美 联储主席将于5月底就职，下半年政策走向仍存在不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to lower its base rate to 4.25% [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve aligns with market expectations, with a total decrease of 1.5% since September of the previous year [1] - The future direction of U.S. monetary policy remains uncertain, as the Federal Reserve has indicated there is no preset path for interest rates [1] Group 2: Impact on Hong Kong - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's president noted that the recent interest rate cut could have a positive effect on the stability of the residential market in Hong Kong [1] - If the Federal Reserve continues to lower rates, the Hong Kong interbank offered rate will also decline, which could positively impact the economy and the real estate market [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The operation of Hong Kong's monetary and financial markets is described as smooth and orderly, with the Hong Kong dollar interbank rates closely aligned with U.S. dollar rates [1] - The residential property market in Hong Kong has shown stability over the past six months, although it remains influenced by various factors such as the economy, employment, and supply-demand dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the negative impact of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown on the economy and the ongoing challenges faced by the Federal Reserve due to a lack of official data [1] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reignited market interest in small-cap stocks, which have outperformed large-cap stocks by nearly 4% since April [2] - Employment data has shown a concerning trend, with a reported loss of 91,100 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, raising investor concerns about data reliability [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to an increased allocation to U.S. small-cap stocks, shifting the allocation stance to neutral for large-cap stocks [2] - The macro environment is favorable for growth stocks, particularly in the AI/technology sector, prompting a shift towards growth-oriented investments [2] - The company maintains a low allocation to bonds due to inflation and fiscal stimulus financing demands, which may keep interest rates under pressure [2]

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the best lending rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125% from 5.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375%. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 142 basis points by December 2026 [1] - UBS anticipates that the ongoing rate cuts will support short-term residential transaction volumes, benefiting developers and highly leveraged companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), Hang Lung Properties (00101), and Kerry Properties (00683) [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, private residential transaction volumes have increased by 13% to 15%. The projected total for 2025 is 19,400 transactions for new properties and 38,000 for second-hand properties, comparable to levels seen in 2018-2019 [2] - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, property prices remain weak, with the CCL index remaining stable throughout the year due to ample short-term supply. Developers' higher pricing strategies have met with low buyer acceptance [2] - UBS expects property prices to remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory is absorbed [2] Group 3 - Among developers, UBS favors Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties for their expected performance, while also showing preference for Hang Lung Properties due to reduced interest expenses from declining HIBOR [3] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value from 40% to 35% [3] - The current dividend yield for Sino Land is 5.8%, similar to that of Hang Lung Properties, with UBS noting that the market has not fully recognized its HKD 49.5 billion cash advantage, which supports dividends and high-profit land acquisitions [3]

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the US Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the best lending rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125% from 5.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375%. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 142 basis points by December 2026 [1] - UBS anticipates that the continued rate cuts will support short-term residential transaction volumes, benefiting developers and highly leveraged companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), Hang Lung Properties (00101), and Kerry Properties (00683) [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, private residential transaction volumes have increased by 13% to 15%. The projected total for 2025 is 19,400 for first-hand and 38,000 for second-hand transactions, comparable to levels seen in 2018-2019 [2] - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, property prices remain weak, with the CCL index stable throughout the year due to ample short-term supply. Developers' higher pricing strategies have met with low buyer acceptance [2] - UBS expects property prices to remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory is digested [2] Group 3 - Among developers, UBS favors Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties for their expected superior performance compared to peers, while also showing preference for Hang Lung Properties due to reduced interest expenses from declining HIBOR [3] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing discount to net asset value from 40% to 35%, supported by strong sales at Victoria Harbour and The Peak [3] - The current dividend yield for Sino Land is 5.8%, similar to Hang Lung Properties, with UBS noting that the market has not fully reflected its HKD 49.5 billion cash advantage, which can support dividends and high-profit land acquisitions [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - The Fed is expected to cut rates two more times this year before pausing, indicating a shift in focus from inflation risks to labor market concerns [1][1] - The Fed's economic forecast highlights this change in stance, confirming market expectations for two additional rate cuts this year [1][1] Group 2 - Future rate predictions for 2026 may see increased cuts, especially with a potential new chairperson taking over in May 2026, which could conflict with the 2% inflation target [1] - Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggest a desire for broader reforms within the Federal Reserve, indicating that future responses may differ significantly from past actions [1][1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Canadian dollar is maintained as neutral to bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The global market is in a super interest - rate decision week. The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep rates unchanged. The weakening of the Canadian dollar is due to factors such as the poor economic fundamentals of Canada and external risks [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Economic Data and Interest - Rate Expectations - US inflation growth in August met economists' expectations, with the CPI rising 2.9% year - on - year and core inflation rising 3.1% year - on - year [1] - The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 2.75% in July, the fourth consecutive time. Officials discussed rate cuts but decided to maintain. Traders expect a 0.25 - point rate cut this month due to the shrinking economy and poor employment [2] - Canada's Q2 GDP shrank 1.6% year - on - year, the first contraction in nearly two years and the largest since the COVID - 19 pandemic, worse than the expected 0.6% decline. The unemployment rate in August rose to 7.1% from 6.9% in July, the highest in 9 years [2] Currency Outlook - The Canadian dollar is short - term bearish. The US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate is around 1.376 and is expected to fluctuate between 1.372 and 1.392 in the short term [3]

Group 1: US Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole Summit hinted at a potential interest rate cut, surprising the market[1] - Market expectations for a 0.25% rate cut in September have risen to nearly 90% according to Bloomberg interest rate futures[1] - The US Dollar Index fell nearly 1% following the dovish comments from Powell, indicating potential opportunities for other currencies[1] Group 2: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's Q2 GDP growth accelerated to an annualized 1%, surpassing market expectations of 0.4%[2] - The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.5% during the July meeting, aligning with market forecasts[2] - The Bank of Japan raised its core consumer inflation forecast for the fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, reflecting ongoing food price increases[2] - There are indications from Bank of Japan officials that a rate hike may occur before the end of the year, influenced by the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance[2] Group 3: Currency Trends - The Japanese Yen previously fell to approximately 150.92 against the US Dollar, marking a new low since March, but has since recovered to around 147.6[2] - With the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates and the Bank of Japan considering tightening, the interest rate differential between the two currencies is expected to narrow, making the Yen attractive for buying at lower levels[2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that China Hongqiao's stock price has over an 80% chance of rising in the next 30 days due to favorable market conditions and company actions [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, which positively impacted commodity prices [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption off-season is expected to lead to increased demand during the consumption peak season [1] - Lower inventory levels and the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts are anticipated to support aluminum prices at high levels [1] Group 2: Company Actions - China Hongqiao recently announced a stock buyback, which is expected to drive the stock price up in the short term [1]