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海信家电(000921):中央空调承压,Q2收入及净利较弱
HTSC· 2025-07-31 06:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7][24]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 49.34 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.077 billion yuan, up 3.01% year-on-year. However, the second quarter saw a decline in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% and 8.25%, respectively, primarily due to weak performance in the central air conditioning segment and increased asset impairment [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's central air conditioning business faced pressure, with revenue from the subsidiary Hisense Hitachi declining by 6% year-on-year to 10.66 billion yuan, and net profit down by 4.9% to 1.86 billion yuan. Domestic sales of central air conditioning dropped by 15.9%, while external sales showed a growth of 24.9% [2][3]. - The home air conditioning segment performed positively, with a revenue increase of approximately 14% year-on-year. The company’s ice washing business also saw a modest revenue growth of 4.8% [3][4]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was reported at 21.48%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved overseas margins and rising margins in the ice washing segment [4][5]. - The report indicates a slight increase in expense ratios due to sports marketing and foreign exchange fluctuations, with the expense ratio rising by 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company of 3.75 billion yuan, 4.20 billion yuan, and 4.70 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The report suggests that the company will benefit from the release of replacement demand and its strong brand presence [5][21]. - The target market capitalization is set at 490.98 billion yuan, with a target price of 35.42 yuan for A-shares and 30.62 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a valuation discount due to exchange rate and market volatility risks [5][24].
中国电力(2380.HK):上半年火电点火价差有望优于预期 目前股息率仍吸引;上调目标价
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-28 18:27
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight year-on-year increase in total power generation of 0.3% for the first four months of the year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation, while thermal power generation declined due to asset sales [1][2] Group 1: Power Generation Performance - Total power generation for the company in January to April remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Wind and solar power generation saw substantial increases of 32.1% and 13.6% respectively [1] - Thermal power generation decreased by 14.2% due to the sale of equity at the end of last year [1] - Hydropower generation experienced a significant drop in April, with a year-on-year decline of 53.3% and a month-on-month decline of 26.5% due to fluctuations in water inflow [1] Group 2: Fuel Costs and Profitability - The price of thermal coal weakened in the second quarter, leading to an expected improvement in the price differential for thermal power generation in the first half of the year [1] - The company anticipates a 2% higher price differential for thermal power generation than previously expected due to a more than 7% drop in domestic thermal coal prices since the end of March [1] - The fuel cost forecast for the thermal power segment has been reduced by 1% to RMB 0.249 per kilowatt-hour, reflecting an approximate 8% year-on-year decrease [1] Group 3: Financial Adjustments and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 water power utilization hours down by about 1% to reflect weaker generation in April [2] - Following adjustments to the financial model, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1.0% and 1.4% respectively [2] - The valuation standard for the water power segment has been raised to 1.9 times the 2025 book value, up from 1.5 times, based on the asset injection valuation [2] - The target price for the company has been revised upward to HKD 3.77 from HKD 3.51 based on a segmented valuation approach [2] Group 4: Shareholder Confidence and Dividends - The parent company has increased its stake in the company, indicating confidence in its development, with a total increase of 1% over the past 12 months [2] - The current dividend yield of 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026 remains attractive to investors despite market fluctuations [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these factors [2]
泰和新材:年报点评:氨纶景气承压,静待底部反转-20250507
Orient Securities· 2025-05-07 10:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 10.75 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Views - The company's aramid business is experiencing steady growth, while the spandex segment is under pressure due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and price competition [4][10]. - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 222 million, 292 million, and 361 million CNY respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision from previous estimates [5][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the aramid market, which has a projected compound annual growth rate of 5-10% globally, despite current price competition [10]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,925 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 3,929 million CNY in 2024, and projected revenues of 4,494 million CNY in 2025, 4,938 million CNY in 2026, and 5,359 million CNY in 2027, indicating a growth trajectory [7][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline significantly in 2024 to 90 million CNY, before rebounding to 222 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 147.9% [7][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 16.0% in 2024 to 21.4% by 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [7][10]. Segment Performance - The spandex segment is projected to face continued challenges, with a forecasted gross margin of -11.86% in 2024, while the aramid segment is expected to see a 13% increase in sales volume [10]. - The company is advancing its aramid-coated diaphragm industrialization process, with pilot projects already in production and full-scale production expected to begin in 2025 [10].
泰和新材(002254):氨纶景气承压,静待底部反转
Orient Securities· 2025-05-07 09:34
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 10.75 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the aramid business is steadily growing, while the spandex segment is under pressure due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and price competition [4][9]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 222 million, 292 million, and 361 million CNY respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision from previous estimates [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,925 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 3,929 million CNY in 2024, and projected revenues of 4,494 million CNY in 2025, 4,938 million CNY in 2026, and 5,359 million CNY in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 14.4% in 2025 [7][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 90 million CNY in 2024 to 222 million CNY in 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 147.9% [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 16.0% in 2024 to 21.4% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 2.3% in 2024 to 6.7% in 2027 [7][12]. Segment Analysis - The spandex segment is facing challenges with a projected gross margin of -11.86% in 2024, leading to further losses [9]. - The aramid segment is expected to maintain a growth trajectory, with a 13% increase in sales volume in 2024 despite a decline in revenue and gross profit due to intensified price competition [9]. - The company is advancing its aramid-coated diaphragm industrialization process, with pilot projects already in production and full-scale production expected to commence in 2025 [9].
药明康德:TIDES业务带动1Q25业绩高增长-20250429
HTSC· 2025-04-29 04:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 20.96% year-over-year (yoy) in 1Q25, reaching 9.655 billion RMB, with a net profit increase of 89.06% yoy to 3.672 billion RMB [1] - The company expects a revenue growth acceleration in 2025-2026, driven by a strong order backlog and the performance of its TIDES business [1][2] - The TIDES segment showed remarkable growth, with a revenue increase of 187.6% yoy in 1Q25, contributing to the overall positive outlook for the company's performance [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, the company achieved a revenue of 9.655 billion RMB, with a net profit of 3.672 billion RMB, and an adjusted non-IFRS net profit of 2.68 billion RMB, reflecting a 40.0% yoy increase [1] - The company’s order backlog reached 52.33 billion RMB in 1Q25, representing a 47.1% yoy increase [2] Business Segments - WuXi Chemistry's revenue in 1Q25 was 7.39 billion RMB, up 32.9% yoy, with a non-IFRS gross margin of 47.5% [3] - The TIDES business saw a significant increase in orders, with a backlog growth of 105.5% yoy in 1Q25 [3] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 11.794 billion RMB for 2025, with a projected growth of 24.80% yoy [5] - The company’s valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, estimating a fair value of 269.44 billion RMB for A-shares and 278.28 billion HKD for H-shares [12]
美团-W(03690):24Q4点评:核心主业好于预期,海外加大投入
Orient Securities· 2025-04-09 14:28
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 178.12 HKD [5][12]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Meituan in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [9]. - The core local business showed resilience, with revenue of 656 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 19% year-on-year [9]. - New business segments, particularly in overseas markets, are seeing positive developments with a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Delivery Business - In Q4 2024, the delivery orders grew in the high single digits, with an improvement in average order profit year-on-year. The average order value (AOV) decreased year-on-year but the decline was less severe compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The operational efficiency is expected to improve with the trial of social security plans for delivery riders starting in Q2 [2]. Flash Purchase - The flash purchase segment achieved profitability in 2024, with a 25% year-on-year increase in orders. The growth is driven by increased convenience in instant retail and expansion in lower-tier markets [3]. In-store and Travel - The in-store and travel segment saw over 65% year-on-year growth in order volume in 2024, with record highs in annual transaction users and active merchants [4]. - The revenue growth slightly outpaced the gross transaction value (GTV) growth, indicating effective marketing strategies [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.99%. The adjusted net profit is expected to reach 35.81 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [12][14]. - The company’s valuation is estimated at 10,882 billion HKD, with specific valuations for different segments: 3.5x PS for delivery, 13.2x PE for in-store and travel, and 0.6x P/GMV for new businesses [15].
金斯瑞生物科技:24年报点评:细胞治疗业务解除并表,各持续经营业务版块25年趋势向好,利润端有望持续为正-20250314
海通国际· 2025-03-14 10:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Genscript Biotech [2][4][6] Core Insights - The deconsolidation of Legend Biotech has led to a significant profit improvement for Genscript, with a profit from discontinued operations of approximately $3 billion, compared to a loss of about $518 million in the same period last year [7][17] - The company expects a positive trend for its continuing business segments in 2025, with projected revenues of $938 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 58% [2][8] - The total equity valuation of Genscript is estimated at $6.296 billion, translating to a target price of HK$22.78 per share [6][17] Summary by Segment Life Sciences Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $523 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% and an adjusted operating profit of $104 million, also growing by 15% [13][14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $454.9 million, up by 10.2% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross profit of about $237.7 million [14][17] Biologics Development Services Segment - Projected Fee-for-Service revenue for 2025 is $113 million, up by 19% year-on-year [14][17] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was about $95 million, down by 13.2% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery in the second half of 2024 [14][17] Industrial Synthetic Biology Products Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $67 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [15][17] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $53.7 million, up by 24.6% year-on-year [14][17] Legend Biotech - Following the deconsolidation, the market capitalization of Legend Biotech was approximately $6.8 billion, with Genscript holding a 47.51% stake valued at about $3.231 billion [16][17]
华润电力:预期公司2024年核心盈利同比增约16%,估值已部分反映不确定性-20250314
交银国际证券· 2025-03-14 08:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion [2][7] - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 23.1, reflecting a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HKD 18.38 [2][7][13] - The adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are due to changes in wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices, with profit estimates reduced by 22% and 21% respectively [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.1 billion, with a slight decrease in operating profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 [6][15] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12.7 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.2% [6][15] - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%, with dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.9% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is expected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with a significant rise in renewable energy capacity [8] - The total electricity sales volume is projected to grow from 207,638 GWh in 2024 to 223,796 GWh in 2025 [8] Valuation Summary - The valuation for the thermal power segment is based on a 0.7x 2025E P/B ratio, while the renewable energy segment is valued at 8.0x 2025E P/E [9] - The total estimated value of the company is HKD 119.6 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 23.10 [9]
港铁公司(00066):24年净利超预期,交楼高峰期到来
HTSC· 2025-03-10 01:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of HKD 15.8 billion for 2024, exceeding expectations due to higher-than-expected property development profits [1] - The property development profit reached HKD 10.3 billion in 2024, a significant increase of 393% year-on-year, driven by the accelerated recognition of project profits [2] - The company is expected to enter a peak period for residential handovers in 2025-2026, with a substantial number of projects awaiting recognition [2] - The company plans to upgrade existing railway facilities and construct new rail lines, with capital expenditures projected to reach HKD 90.8 billion from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company maintains a net debt ratio of 32% as of the end of 2024, which supports a progressive dividend policy [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 was HKD 60 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - The recurring business profit was HKD 7.2 billion, up 68% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1] - The proposed dividend for 2024 is HKD 1.31, maintaining the same level as the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.0% [1] Property Development - The company is expected to benefit from a large number of projects awaiting recognition in 2025-2026, particularly those located along the metro lines, which are more attractive compared to competitors [2] - The short-term outlook for the Hong Kong property market remains weak, but the company’s projects are expected to provide stable profitability due to their "minimum guarantee + profit sharing" model [2] Retail and Rental Market - The EBIT for Hong Kong station business decreased by 0.5% to HKD 3.773 billion in 2024, impacted by a 9.8% decline in new rental rates despite the recovery of duty-free shops [3] - The EBIT for Hong Kong property leasing and management increased by 4.3% to HKD 4.169 billion, mainly due to contributions from two newly opened shopping malls, although new rental rates still fell by 8.9% [3] International Operations - The EBIT for Hong Kong railway operations improved significantly, moving from a loss of HKD 1.111 billion in 2023 to near breakeven, driven by increased cross-border passenger flow [4] - Revenue from cross-border services, high-speed rail, and airport express services grew by 62%, 33%, and 21% year-on-year, respectively [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards by 10% and 11% to HKD 20.3 billion and HKD 21.2 billion, respectively [5] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 29.5, reflecting a 20% discount to account for the diversified business valuation [5][13]