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美团-W(03690):24Q4点评:核心主业好于预期,海外加大投入
Orient Securities· 2025-04-09 14:28
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 178.12 HKD [5][12]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Meituan in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [9]. - The core local business showed resilience, with revenue of 656 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 19% year-on-year [9]. - New business segments, particularly in overseas markets, are seeing positive developments with a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Delivery Business - In Q4 2024, the delivery orders grew in the high single digits, with an improvement in average order profit year-on-year. The average order value (AOV) decreased year-on-year but the decline was less severe compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The operational efficiency is expected to improve with the trial of social security plans for delivery riders starting in Q2 [2]. Flash Purchase - The flash purchase segment achieved profitability in 2024, with a 25% year-on-year increase in orders. The growth is driven by increased convenience in instant retail and expansion in lower-tier markets [3]. In-store and Travel - The in-store and travel segment saw over 65% year-on-year growth in order volume in 2024, with record highs in annual transaction users and active merchants [4]. - The revenue growth slightly outpaced the gross transaction value (GTV) growth, indicating effective marketing strategies [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.99%. The adjusted net profit is expected to reach 35.81 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [12][14]. - The company’s valuation is estimated at 10,882 billion HKD, with specific valuations for different segments: 3.5x PS for delivery, 13.2x PE for in-store and travel, and 0.6x P/GMV for new businesses [15].
金斯瑞生物科技:24年报点评:细胞治疗业务解除并表,各持续经营业务版块25年趋势向好,利润端有望持续为正-20250314
海通国际· 2025-03-14 10:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Genscript Biotech [2][4][6] Core Insights - The deconsolidation of Legend Biotech has led to a significant profit improvement for Genscript, with a profit from discontinued operations of approximately $3 billion, compared to a loss of about $518 million in the same period last year [7][17] - The company expects a positive trend for its continuing business segments in 2025, with projected revenues of $938 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 58% [2][8] - The total equity valuation of Genscript is estimated at $6.296 billion, translating to a target price of HK$22.78 per share [6][17] Summary by Segment Life Sciences Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $523 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% and an adjusted operating profit of $104 million, also growing by 15% [13][14] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $454.9 million, up by 10.2% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross profit of about $237.7 million [14][17] Biologics Development Services Segment - Projected Fee-for-Service revenue for 2025 is $113 million, up by 19% year-on-year [14][17] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was about $95 million, down by 13.2% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery in the second half of 2024 [14][17] Industrial Synthetic Biology Products Segment - Expected revenue for 2025 is $67 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [15][17] - The segment's revenue in 2024 was approximately $53.7 million, up by 24.6% year-on-year [14][17] Legend Biotech - Following the deconsolidation, the market capitalization of Legend Biotech was approximately $6.8 billion, with Genscript holding a 47.51% stake valued at about $3.231 billion [16][17]
华润电力:预期公司2024年核心盈利同比增约16%,估值已部分反映不确定性-20250314
交银国际证券· 2025-03-14 08:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion [2][7] - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 23.1, reflecting a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HKD 18.38 [2][7][13] - The adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are due to changes in wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices, with profit estimates reduced by 22% and 21% respectively [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.1 billion, with a slight decrease in operating profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 [6][15] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12.7 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.2% [6][15] - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%, with dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.9% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is expected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with a significant rise in renewable energy capacity [8] - The total electricity sales volume is projected to grow from 207,638 GWh in 2024 to 223,796 GWh in 2025 [8] Valuation Summary - The valuation for the thermal power segment is based on a 0.7x 2025E P/B ratio, while the renewable energy segment is valued at 8.0x 2025E P/E [9] - The total estimated value of the company is HKD 119.6 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 23.10 [9]
港铁公司(00066):24年净利超预期,交楼高峰期到来
HTSC· 2025-03-10 01:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of HKD 15.8 billion for 2024, exceeding expectations due to higher-than-expected property development profits [1] - The property development profit reached HKD 10.3 billion in 2024, a significant increase of 393% year-on-year, driven by the accelerated recognition of project profits [2] - The company is expected to enter a peak period for residential handovers in 2025-2026, with a substantial number of projects awaiting recognition [2] - The company plans to upgrade existing railway facilities and construct new rail lines, with capital expenditures projected to reach HKD 90.8 billion from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company maintains a net debt ratio of 32% as of the end of 2024, which supports a progressive dividend policy [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 was HKD 60 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - The recurring business profit was HKD 7.2 billion, up 68% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1] - The proposed dividend for 2024 is HKD 1.31, maintaining the same level as the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.0% [1] Property Development - The company is expected to benefit from a large number of projects awaiting recognition in 2025-2026, particularly those located along the metro lines, which are more attractive compared to competitors [2] - The short-term outlook for the Hong Kong property market remains weak, but the company’s projects are expected to provide stable profitability due to their "minimum guarantee + profit sharing" model [2] Retail and Rental Market - The EBIT for Hong Kong station business decreased by 0.5% to HKD 3.773 billion in 2024, impacted by a 9.8% decline in new rental rates despite the recovery of duty-free shops [3] - The EBIT for Hong Kong property leasing and management increased by 4.3% to HKD 4.169 billion, mainly due to contributions from two newly opened shopping malls, although new rental rates still fell by 8.9% [3] International Operations - The EBIT for Hong Kong railway operations improved significantly, moving from a loss of HKD 1.111 billion in 2023 to near breakeven, driven by increased cross-border passenger flow [4] - Revenue from cross-border services, high-speed rail, and airport express services grew by 62%, 33%, and 21% year-on-year, respectively [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards by 10% and 11% to HKD 20.3 billion and HKD 21.2 billion, respectively [5] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 29.5, reflecting a 20% discount to account for the diversified business valuation [5][13]