小象超市首家线下店位于北京华联万柳购物中心。摄/搜狐科技 出品 | 搜狐科技 作者 | 张莹 提到万柳，外界首先想到的可能是高端住宅项目"万柳书院"。这里高净值、高知家庭集中，但2024年7月华联BHG生活超市闭店后，万柳一直缺乏稳定的大 型连锁超市。 美团就将小象超市的第一家线下店开在了这里。 有专家向搜狐科技指出，小象超市拓展线下实体店，可以与现有前置仓及线上即时零售业务形成协同，最终整合为"店仓网一体化"模式。这一模式也是中国 零售业的明显趋势。 据观察，小象超市的线下店类似盒马和物美胖改店的集合体——和盒马鲜生一样，有不少自有品牌商品，商品品类非常齐全；也和物美的胖改店一样，注重 服务、主打"烟火气"。 在小象超市首家线下体验店开业的不久前，美团宣布暂停团好货业务，原因是"快递电商难以承接即时零售用户的需求"。半年前，"美团优选"也进行了战略 转型，退出表现不佳的亏损区域。小象超市成为美团食杂零售业务的新希望。 盒马+胖改店=小象超市？ 小象超市的前身是美团于2019年上线的"美团买菜"，以纯前置仓模式起家。2023年12月，美团买菜升级为"小象超市"。 "今天的客流是昨天的1/3，昨天、前天推着车走 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) is recognized as a leading local business platform in China, with solid long-term barriers and a focus on exploring new business increments, leading to an "overweight" rating by Caitong Securities [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Meituan operates in key sectors including food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel services, while actively developing new businesses such as Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Kuailu, as well as expanding into overseas markets [2] - The macroeconomic environment is identified as the largest beta factor, with the service industry expected to grow faster than retail goods, enhancing the platform's growth potential and resilience [2] Group 2: International Expansion - The overseas expansion of the food delivery business has shown positive progress in regions like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October this year and significant quarter-on-quarter growth in user engagement metrics expected by Q3 2025 [3] - The internationalization strategy, although initiated later, is anticipated to significantly broaden the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the company, creating structural flexibility for future profit growth [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - Caitong Securities forecasts Meituan's revenue to reach 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]

Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local commerce platform in China, focusing on food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel services, while actively exploring new business opportunities and expanding into overseas markets [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is a significant beta factor, with the service industry showing higher growth rates compared to retail, indicating greater growth potential and resilience for the platform [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, core local commerce revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, primarily due to increased subsidies leading to a significant decline in delivery service revenue [2] - The operating loss for core local commerce in Q3 2025 was 14.1 billion yuan, with expectations of continued losses in Q4 2025, although the loss margin is anticipated to narrow sequentially [2] Competitive Landscape - Meituan's core advantage lies in its long-term business barriers rather than short-term subsidy investments, with significant operational efficiency in its food delivery business [2] - As industry competition becomes more rational, Meituan is expected to enter a profit recovery phase following a reduction in subsidies [2] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, achieving positive progress in regions like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October 2025 [2] - The international strategy, although initiated later, is expected to significantly broaden the company's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [2] - Meituan is positioned as a leading player in local commerce with solid long-term barriers, and despite short-term competitive disturbances, the long-term value remains unchanged, leading to an "overweight" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 135.66 HKD, based on a reasonable valuation of 829.1 billion HKD [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant competition, leading to a focus on high-value orders and a prolonged period of losses. The report suggests that the worst phase of losses may have passed, but the ongoing competition will likely extend the duration of losses [9][12]. - The company's Q3 performance showed a substantial increase in order volume driven by subsidies, but this has negatively impacted average order value (AOV), resulting in a revenue decline of approximately 12% year-on-year [9]. - The report highlights that the company's market share in high-value orders (AOV above 15 HKD) is over two-thirds, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining this segment despite competitive pressures [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 276,745 million HKD - 2024: 337,592 million HKD - 2025: 366,600 million HKD - 2026: 406,302 million HKD - 2027: 462,787 million HKD - The year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline significantly, with 2025 showing only an 8.59% increase [4][16]. - The company is projected to incur losses in the coming years, with net profit estimates for 2025 at -19,633 million HKD and -25,640 million HKD for 2026 [4][16]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the following for 2026: - Delivery and Flash Purchase: 2,097 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 4,516 billion HKD - In-store and Hotel Travel: 170 billion CNY in after-tax operating profit, valued at 2,437 billion HKD - New Business: 1,216 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 1,338 billion HKD - The total estimated market value for the company is 8,291 billion HKD [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Meituan's food delivery losses have peaked, and there is a focus on value recovery amid dynamic competition [3][4] - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, but incurred an operating loss of 19.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 244% [3][4] - The core local business revenue decreased by 3% to 67.4 billion yuan, with significant losses attributed to intensified market competition and increased promotional expenses [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that Meituan's food delivery business saw record high daily active users and monthly transaction users, indicating a robust growth in core user base [5] - Meituan's flash purchase business revenue grew by 33% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant increases in user transaction frequency and average order value [5][6] - The hotel and travel business revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with over 200 service categories covered, and the platform has accumulated over 25 billion real consumption reviews [6] Group 3 - The report projects that Meituan's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 365.4 billion, 412.0 billion, and 467.9 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of -18.4 billion, +14.5 billion, and +37.8 billion yuan [7] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Meituan, with a target market value of 737 billion yuan for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 121 yuan per share [7] Group 4 - The report on Li Auto indicates that Q3 2025 revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, with a net loss of 6.24 billion yuan [18][19] - Li Auto's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 15.5% [19][20] - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% to 37% [20][21]

Core Insights - Meituan's 3Q25 performance slightly missed expectations, with management anticipating a narrowing of core local commerce (CLC) operating losses in 4Q25 [3][4] Financial Performance - 3Q25 revenue reached RMB 95.5 billion, a 2% year-over-year increase but 2% below market consensus [3] - CLC revenue declined by 2.8% year-over-year to RMB 67.4 billion, while new initiatives revenue rose by 16% year-over-year to RMB 28 billion [3] - CLC operating loss widened to RMB 14.1 billion, compared to a consensus loss of RMB 13 billion, with an operating margin of -21% [3][4] - Adjusted net loss was RMB 16 billion, slightly larger than the expected RMB 14 billion loss [3] Market Dynamics - Competitive intensity in food delivery has decreased since Singles' Day, allowing Meituan to recover market share in order value while maintaining a leading gross transaction value (GTV) share [4] - The company expects the food delivery segment to incur notable operating losses in 4Q25, depending on competition levels in December [4] New Initiatives and Growth - Management indicated that the operating loss for Instashopping may slightly widen in 4Q25 due to increased investments in user experience during promotional campaigns [5] - The launch of Branded Flagship InstaMart in October has shown potential, with hundreds of partner brands achieving over 300% year-over-year sales growth during Singles' Day [5]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) has exceeded expectations in new business operating profit for Q3 this year, indicating a positive outlook for profitability recovery by 2026 as competition becomes more rationalized [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The target price for Meituan is maintained at HKD 139 with a "Buy" rating [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to see strong growth in flash sales, with a double-digit growth forecast for in-store and travel services [1] - New business growth is projected to accelerate in Q4, with a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - For 2026, core local business revenue is expected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with operating profit reaching RMB 18 billion [1] - New business revenue is anticipated to increase by 18% year-on-year in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) has exceeded expectations in operating profit for new businesses in Q3 2023, indicating a positive outlook for profitability recovery by 2026 as competition becomes more rationalized [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The operating profit for new businesses in Q3 2023 surpassed expectations [1] - The forecast for Q4 2023 includes strong growth in flash sales and double-digit growth in the dining and travel sectors [1] - New business growth is expected to accelerate in Q4 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - For 2026, core local business revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with operating profit reaching 18 billion RMB [1] - New business revenue is anticipated to increase by 18% year-on-year in 2026 [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - The target price for Meituan is maintained at 139 HKD with an "Accumulate" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 136.00 [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face significant pressure on revenue growth and profits in Q3 2025 due to intense competition in the food delivery sector, particularly from irrational subsidies [1][2]. - Despite short-term challenges, the report remains optimistic about the company's long-term efficiency advantages and brand strength, anticipating a return to rational operations in Q4 2025 [1][5]. - The company is also making progress in its overseas food delivery business, with plans to expand into the Brazilian market [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q3 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 978 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 4.5%, but with an expected operating loss of RMB 18.5 billion and an adjusted net loss of RMB 15.9 billion [1][5]. - The report forecasts revenues of RMB 3,768 billion, RMB 4,448 billion, and RMB 5,102 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB -79 billion, RMB 354 billion, and RMB 544 billion [5][10]. Business Segments Performance - The instant delivery segment is expected to see a year-over-year order volume increase of 17.0% in Q3 2025, driven by increased platform subsidies, although user experience (UE) is projected to decline significantly [2]. - The dine-in segment is anticipated to grow by 5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, but faces pressure from offline dining consumption and increased competition from delivery services [3]. - New business revenue is expected to reach RMB 284 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 17.5%, although it will incur an operating loss of RMB 2.4 billion [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, assigning PE multiples of 7x for the food delivery business and 18x for the dine-in business for 2026, with a target price of HKD 136.00 per share [5][14]. - The company’s estimated PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.00, 15.85, and 10.31 respectively [10][24].

Group 1: Local Life and E-commerce - The competition in local life services is expected to continue in Q4 2025, with major platforms like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba intensifying their investments in delivery services and instant retail [2][3] - In Q2 2025, Meituan, JD, and Alibaba reported significant losses in local life services, but these losses are anticipated to peak in Q3 due to increased summer demand and promotional activities [2][3] - The e-commerce sector is experiencing reduced competitive pressure, with online retail sales reaching 1.02 trillion yuan in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [4] Group 2: Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is witnessing a recovery, with a 7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day holiday, indicating a shift in traveler preferences towards experiential travel [7][8] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from the overall growth in tourism, with major players maintaining stable performance despite increased competition from new entrants [7] - The hotel industry is expected to reach a bottoming out phase, with leading companies like Jinjiang and Huazhu showing resilience and potential for profit recovery in Q4 2025 [10][11] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Goods - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformations, with supermarkets like Yonghui Supermarket expected to complete major store renovations, leading to improved profitability [9] - The retail landscape is shifting towards quality retail, with community stores like convenience stores maintaining high growth rates, while traditional department stores face slower growth [9] - The mother and baby retail sector is benefiting from supportive government policies and adjustments in store formats, leading to a notable recovery in same-store sales [14] Group 4: Cross-border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce is experiencing profit differentiation due to external factors like tariffs, with platform-based companies showing stable performance while product-based companies seek innovative advantages [12][13] - The sales peak for cross-border e-commerce is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day, which saw a 30.3% increase in online spending [12][13] Group 5: Recommendations - Key investment targets include Yonghui Supermarket, Alibaba, Meituan, and various hotel chains such as Jinjiang and Huazhu, reflecting a diversified approach across sectors [5]