Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US tariff negotiations. Domestic soybean meal is influenced by the increase in imported soybean arrivals and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term range - bound situation, affected by factors such as the increase in imported soybean arrivals, the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US suppresses the upward space. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills increased from low levels. The soybean market was affected by the decline in US soybeans and fluctuated downwards [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weak - fluctuating pattern [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills supported short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for clear information on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppressing the price of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices**: The report provides the trading average prices and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 3 to July 14, as well as the prices of soybean futures and spot soybeans from July 4 to July 14 [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and No.2) and soybean meal from July 2 to July 14 are presented, along with their daily changes [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) are detailed, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate at different times [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including data on harvested area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [40]. 5. Position Data - Not provided Other Related Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [41]. - The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at oil mills continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts at oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term备货 demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume at oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean futures profit fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The live pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly [56]. - The domestic live pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable growing weather and high expectations of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, soybean meal prices initially dropped and then rebounded, influenced by the US soybean market and technical adjustments. With an increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices, the market is expected to enter a range - bound pattern. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market is in a downward trend due to good growing conditions and high - yield expectations. In the domestic market, soybeans are trading in a narrow range, affected by the increase in imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the US has led to a relatively strong performance in the US soybean market, which is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on soybean planting and growth conditions, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories have rebounded from low levels. Recently, the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall in the US soybean market. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports post - holiday price expectations. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - Low oil - mill soybean meal inventories support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war mean that soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further clarity on South American soybean yields and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the continued expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: The continued expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 million tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 89, indicating a premium to futures. Oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 million tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Trading Data**: From June 30 to July 9, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed certain fluctuations, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed [15]. - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: Include the sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38] 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2860 and 2920. The overall pattern may remain weakly oscillating due to factors such as increased imports of soybeans in May and potential resumption of US soybean imports, while the low inventory of soybean meal at oil mills supports the bottom of the futures market [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate between 4120 and 4220. It is affected by factors such as the interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the increase in imported soybeans, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans [11]. - The short - term trend of the soybean and soybean meal markets is mainly oscillatory, influenced by factors such as the outcome of the China - US tariff war, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the harvest situation in South America [9][11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No relevant information provided 2. Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, due to the good recent weather for US soybean planting, the US market first rose and then fell, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After the May Day holiday, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory state, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after the May Day holiday, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectations. With the reduced pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal entered a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills supported the short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: the total volume of imported soybeans in China rebounded to a high in May, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continued [14]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectations [15]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The soybean meal futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is relatively weak after the May Day holiday, with the premium continuing to narrow. The spot price of soybean meal in East China on May 16 was 2920, with a basis of 21, showing a premium over the futures [9][23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans at oil mills continued to rise, with 534.91 million tons as of a certain time, a 12.7% increase from the previous week and a 27.79% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 10.12 million tons, a 23.26% increase from the previous week and an 81.9% decrease year - on - year [9][11]. - **Production and Consumption**: The soybean crushing volume at oil mills continued to rise, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year. The downstream procurement decreased after the holiday, but the提货 volume remained good [25][27]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal M2509, the main long positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - For soybean A2507, the main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market currently lacks driving forces, and the futures price shows a volatile trend. The spot price of soybeans is stable with a slight upward bias, and the futures price also shows a slightly stronger volatile trend [1]. - The CBOT soybean futures closed with mixed results, mainly pressured by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans. The US soybean lacks price competitiveness under the current 10% tariff, and Brazil will continue to dominate the global export market. The ideal weather conditions in the US Midwest also put pressure on soybean futures prices [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of DCE soybean 2507 was 4168 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (-0.31%) during the day session and up 20 yuan (+0.48%) during the night session. The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 2899 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (-0.14%) during the day session and down 6 yuan (-0.21%) during the night session. The closing price of CBOT soybean 07 was 1051 cents/bushel, down 0.25 cents (-0.02%). The closing price of CBOT soybean meal 07 was 291.8 dollars/short ton, down 4.6 dollars (-1.55%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or unchanged compared to the previous day. In East China, the spot price of soybean meal at Taizhou Huifu was 2950 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan compared to the previous day. In South China, the spot price of soybean meal at Dongguan Fuyuan was 2990 yuan/ton after May 20th, down 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.75 million tons per day, compared to 3.15 million tons per day in the previous trading day. The inventory data was not available, and the previous week's inventory was 10.06 million tons [1]. Macro and Industry News - On May 16th, CBOT soybean futures closed with mixed results, mainly pressured by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans. The US soybean lacks price competitiveness under the current 10% tariff, and Brazil will continue to dominate the global export market. The ideal weather conditions in the US Midwest also put pressure on soybean futures prices [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both on the day session's main contract futures price fluctuations [3].