Report Summary Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "selling short on rallies" for crude oil, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3][8]. Core View - The report anticipates a bearish trend in the crude oil market due to factors such as potential OPEC+ production increases, rising global seaborne crude oil volumes, and concerns about supply glut [3][9]. Detailed Summaries 1. Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI December crude oil futures closed down $0.19 per barrel, a 0.31% decline, at $61.31 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures closed down $0.32 per barrel, a 0.49% decline, at $65.62 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures closed down 3.50 yuan per barrel, a 0.75% decline, at 464.90 yuan per barrel [3]. 2. Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexican Gulf**: All major crude oils' arbitrage is closed, indicating poor economic viability [4]. - **Atlantic**: Forties and Saharan Blend have open arbitrage, showing regional and cost advantages respectively [4]. - **Northwest Europe**: Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light have open arbitrage, indicating economic viability for European exports [5]. - **Mediterranean**: All major crude oils' arbitrage is closed, mainly due to high costs and price competition [6]. - **Asia**: All major crude oils' arbitrage is closed, with regional crude having an advantage [7]. 3. Key Market News - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: Eight OPEC+ producers may increase production by 13.7 million barrels per day in December, following a cumulative increase of over 2.7 million barrels per day since April [9]. - **Global Seaborne Crude Volume**: It has reached a new record, with supply increasing due to production expansion by OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries. Despite sanctions on Russian oil companies, prices are expected to fall 7% this month, and a record supply glut is predicted next year [9]. - **Other News**: Ukraine may expand attacks on Russian refineries; India is waiting for clear information on Russian oil imports; Canada has a contingency plan if the US doesn't negotiate [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Crude oil: It is not advisable to chase long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil - WTI December crude oil futures rose $3.29 per barrel, or 5.62%, to $61.79 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures rose $3.40 per barrel, or 5.43%, to $65.99 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose 15.80 yuan per barrel, or 3.48%, to 469.80 yuan per barrel [2]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All light crude oil arbitrage windows are closed, indicating that it is economically unfeasible to import light crude oil from the Atlantic Basin (Middle East, West Africa, North Sea) to the U.S. Gulf for cracking. All heavy crude oil arbitrage windows are also generally closed, showing that heavy raw materials lack competitiveness compared to domestic crude oil (such as Mars) in the U.S. Gulf coking units [3]. - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: North Sea Forties crude oil and Algerian Saharan Blend crude oil show arbitrage opportunities, which may attract these crude oils to flow to the U.S. East Coast and replace some West African Bonny Light crude oil. The economy of Saharan Blend crude oil is significantly better than the benchmark, while other West African crude oils have poor economy [5]. - **Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The arbitrage of U.S. Gulf crude oil (WTI MEH) to Europe is closed. However, U.S. shale oil (Eagle Ford), crude oil from the Caspian Sea (Azeri Light), and North Africa (Saharan Blend) have arbitrage space, indicating that these crude oils are more competitive in the Northwest European market. Eagle Ford is one of the few competitive U.S. crude oils, and the arbitrage space of Azeri Light crude oil is obvious. North African crude oil has arbitrage opportunities, and the economy of West African major light crude oil (Bonny Light) is close to equilibrium [7]. - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All oil types' arbitrage relative to Urals crude oil is severely closed, indicating that Urals crude oil has a huge price advantage in the Mediterranean market, and crude oil from other sources is difficult to compete with it [8][9]. - **Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Under the cracking configuration, all oil types' arbitrage against ESPO crude oil is closed, and ESPO has strong competitiveness in the Northeast Asian cracking market. Under the coking configuration, heavy/medium crude oil from the Americas (such as Napo, Mars) has open arbitrage windows, indicating that these crude oils are economically attractive to Chinese coking units. American Mars crude oil's arbitrage window is open [9]. 3.3 Key Market News - German Chancellor Merz: The German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft will be exempted from U.S. sanctions [12]. - Kuwaiti Oil Minister: OPEC is ready to increase oil production when demand increases. He warned that sanctions on the Russian energy industry will lead to higher oil prices. OPEC is ready to increase oil production if requested by U.S. President Trump [12]. - According to TASS: Russia may increase oil transportation from Kazakhstan to Germany [12]. - The Communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee: The plenary session put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, aiming to significantly increase China's economic strength, scientific and technological strength, national defense strength, comprehensive national strength, and international influence by 2035, and achieve a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries [12]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - Crude oil trend intensity: 0. The range of trend intensity values is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 indicates the most bearish, and 2 indicates the most bullish [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that crude oil is experiencing a short - term restorative rebound due to favorable factors. The trend strength of crude oil is 1, showing a neutral outlook [1][9]. 3. Summary by Sections a. International Crude Oil Prices - On October 23, 2025, WTI December crude oil futures rose $1.26 per barrel, a 2.20% increase, to $58.50 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures rose $1.27 per barrel, a 2.07% increase, to $62.59 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose 7.30 yuan per barrel, a 1.65% increase, to 449.10 yuan per barrel [1]. b. Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed arbitrage windows are closed, with negative arbitrage values ranging from -$1.12 to -$7.3 per barrel [2]. - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Forties against Bonny Light has a positive arbitrage of $1.41, and Saharan Blend against Bonny Light has the highest positive arbitrage of $2.86 [4]. - **North - Western Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, and Saharan Blend against Forties have positive arbitrage, with values of $0.68, $1.24, and $0.46 respectively [5]. - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed arbitrage windows against Urals are closed, with large negative values, the most uneconomical being Ekofisk against Urals at -$9.7 [5]. - **Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Napo against Dubai has the highest positive arbitrage of $3.05, and Mars against Dubai has a slight positive arbitrage of $0.88 [6]. c. Key Market News - The US Treasury added Rosneft and Lukoil to the blacklist, along with their Russian subsidiaries, which account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 this year) [10]. - EIA report for the week of October 17: US crude exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease); SPR inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase) [10].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is to continue waiting and seeing, indicating a weak driving force [1]. Core View - The driving force for crude oil is weak, and it is recommended to continue waiting and seeing. The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][8]. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - WTI November crude oil futures closed down $0.02/barrel, a decrease of 0.03%, at $57.52/barrel; Brent December crude oil futures closed down $0.28/barrel, a decrease of 0.46%, at $61.01/barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures closed down 0.70 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.16%, at 438.40 yuan/barrel [1]. Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The arbitrage windows for Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties are all closed, mainly due to high costs, lack of competitiveness, and low refining profits [2]. - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The arbitrage windows for Forties, Saharan Blend, and Urals are open, while that for Cabinda is closed. Urals has a significant price advantage, but there may be risks related to logistics or sanctions [4]. - **Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The arbitrage windows for Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, and Saharan Blend are open, while those for WTI MEH and Bonny Light are closed. The trans - Atlantic price difference for WTI MEH is very narrow, and Bonny Light has a slight disadvantage compared to Forties [5]. - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford are all closed because of the deep discount of Urals and high transportation costs [6]. - **Asia Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The arbitrage windows for Duri, Basrah Heavy, Napo, and Maya are all closed, mainly due to high transportation costs and low competitiveness compared to the Dubai benchmark [7]. Key Market News - On October 20, US Middle East envoys warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu not to undermine the Gaza cease - fire agreement. - Russia is ready to expand cooperation with Iran in various fields. - Shanghai International Energy Exchange approved an increase in the storage capacity of Dalian North Oil Storage Co., Ltd. from 100,000 cubic meters to 200,000 cubic meters [9].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 原油：风险偏好恶化，继续观望 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 0.81 美元/桶，跌幅 1.39%，报 57.46 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 0.85 美元/桶，跌幅 1.37%，报 61.06 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 8.50 元/桶，跌幅 1.91%， 报 437.10 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | | 原油品种 | 参考 | | 套利状态 | 市场说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 目标地区 | | 基准 | 炼油配置 | 与值 (美 | | | | | | | 元/桶) | 运费基于长期协议；贸易 | | | Arab Extra | WTI | | 关闭: - | 流数据包含所有自沙特进 | | | Light | MEH | FCC & HCU | $5.62 | 口原油，反映裂化配置经 | | | | | | | 济性。 | | | | WTI | | 关闭: ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 0.79 美元/桶，跌幅 1.33%，报 58.70 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 0.93 美元/桶，跌幅 1.47%，报 62.39 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 6.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.37%， 报 446.30 元/桶。 1、原油套利 | 套利路线 | 代表性油种 | 套利窗口状态 (2025-10-13) | 市场情况说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进入 USGC | Arab Light, | 关闭（- | 相对于美国本土基准 WTI MEH，大西洋盆地的轻质原油 | | (Cracking) | Forties | 5.91/bbl,−7.17/bbl） | 进口经济性不佳，抑制跨大西 | | | | | 洋进口。 | | 进入 USGC | Maya, | 接近平衡/略亏（- | 重质原油（如 Maya）与基准 | | (Coking) | Vas ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The risk appetite for crude oil has improved, and there may be a short - term continuation of the rebound [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil - WTI November crude oil futures rose $0.59 per barrel, or 1.00%, to $59.49 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures rose $0.59 per barrel, or 0.94%, to $63.32 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose $0.10 per barrel, or 0.02%, to $453.80 per barrel [1] 3.2 Product Oil Arbitrage - **Gasoline**: Routes from Europe to New York and Mediterranean to New York are open, while routes from Europe to Mexico and Asia to Mexico are closed. The European ARA region has cost advantages in blending components, but the US RVO compliance cost needs to be considered. Mediterranean low - sulfur gasoline needs adjustment to meet US standards [2] - **Diesel**: Most routes are closed, mainly due to factors such as freight, sufficient local supply in Europe, and weak demand in the Mediterranean region. Only the route from South Korea to the US West Coast is open because of tight Asian supply and strong US demand [2] - **Aviation Fuel**: The route from the Arab Gulf to the Mediterranean is open due to a slight increase in demand during the Mediterranean summer tourist season, while the route from the Arab Gulf to Northwest Europe is closed because of slow demand recovery and uneconomical shipping distances [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Routes from Northwest Europe and USGC to Singapore are closed because of oversupply in the Singapore market, unfavorable East - West spreads, and high long - distance transportation costs [2] - **Naphtha**: The route from the USGC to Japan is open as US naphtha has a price advantage and Asian chemical demand is stable, while the route from the Arab Gulf to Japan is closed due to weak Asian petrochemical demand and compressed cracking profits [2][4] 3.3 Crude Oil Key Indicators - **Price Index**: The global energy price index is on an upward trend, driven by geopolitical factors [4] - **Term Structure**: The M1 - M2 crude oil spread shows near - month contango, indicating relatively sufficient market supply [4] - **Positioning**: NYMEX WTI fund net positions show long - position reduction due to macro - economic concerns, and NYMEX RBOB fund net positions have increased volatility because of uncertain gasoline demand after the summer driving season [4] - **Regional Spreads**: The Atlantic Basin crude oil spread difference has narrowed, and the Asian crude oil spread has weakened because of compressed Asian refinery profit margins and reduced procurement willingness [4] 3.4 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **USGC**: Most configurations are closed. Light - sweet crude oil processing profits are affected by narrowing product cracking spreads, and heavy crude oil processing economy is dragged down by fuel oil value [5] - **USAC**: The configuration using Saharan Blend for cracking is open as African light - sweet crude oil has a quality premium on the US East Coast [5] - **Northwest Europe**: Configurations using Eagle Ford and Azeri Light for cracking are open. US light crude oil has a significant cost advantage in the European market [5] - **Singapore**: The configuration using Murban for cracking is open. Middle - East light crude oil maintains marginal economic viability in the Asian market [5] - **China**: Configurations using Napo and Mars for coking are open. South American heavy crude oil has processing advantages in Asian coking units, and US Gulf of Mexico medium - sulfur crude oil has stable Asian demand [5] 3.5 Refining Margins - **USGC**: FCC&HCU with WTI MEH has above - average margins, and Coking with Mars has relatively high margins due to the structural advantage of processing heavy crude oil [6] - **USAC**: RFCC with Dated Brent has medium margins as East Coast refineries face competition from imported products [6] - **Northwest Europe**: Full - conversion with Dated Brent has low margins because of weak European diesel demand and intense competition in chemical products [6] - **Singapore**: The cracking configuration with Dubai has medium margins. Asian light - product demand supports profit margins, but fuel oil value is low [6] 3.6 Key Market News - Trump said he was willing to lift sanctions on Iran if they were willing to talk. World leaders participated in the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace agreement during the Sharm El - Sheikh Summit [9] - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next year and expected the market supply gap to narrow significantly in 2026. OPEC+ increased daily production by 630,000 barrels to 43.05 million barrels in September [9] - OPEC predicted that global oil demand would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9] - OPEC's September crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. Production in most member countries increased, while Nigeria's production decreased [9] 3.7 Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong trend [8]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - WTI November crude oil futures fell $2.61/barrel, or 4.24%, to $58.90/barrel; Brent December crude oil futures fell $2.49/barrel, or 3.82%, to $62.73/barrel; SC2511 crude oil futures fell 21.20 yuan/barrel, or 4.55%, to 445.00 yuan/barrel [1] 2. USGC Crude Oil Arbitrage (as of Oct 10) - Middle - Eastern light crude has no appeal to the US Gulf, indicating sufficient supply of US light shale oil and weak refinery demand for imported light crude [2] - West African crude oil arbitrage is closed, reflecting sufficient supply of medium - sulfur crude in the US Gulf or more economical flow of West African crude to other markets [2] - North Sea crude oil arbitrage to the US Gulf is severely closed, showing intense competition in the light crude supply in the Atlantic Basin and reduced attractiveness of the US Gulf as a core demand center [2] 3. NWE Crude Oil Arbitrage - US shale oil can flow into Europe economically, indicating strong export competitiveness of US crude and an adjustment in the European market's supply - demand pattern [4] - Other US light oil grades can also flow into Europe, confirming the active trans - Atlantic crude oil trade and continuous European demand for light crude [4] 4. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - In Southeast Asia, the Middle - Eastern Murban crude has a weak profit when flowing in, showing a basically balanced but slightly loose supply in the Asian light - low - sulfur crude market [5] - In Northeast Asia, the market has strong demand for ESPO and other medium - sulfur crude, or there is an oversupply of Middle - Eastern crude [5] - In China, the heavy - oil market has sufficient supply or weakened refinery feed demand, and the supply - demand relationship of heavy - oil is in a balanced or tight - balanced state [5] 5. Key Market News - Russia will suspend the plan to cancel fuel compensation mechanism payments from October to May next year [6] - Iraq set the official selling price of Basra medium crude for Asia in November at a premium of $0.85/barrel to the Oman/Dubai average [6] 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests going long on volatility and holding long positions in calendar spreads for crude oil before the holiday [1]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Oil Product Arbitrage Flows - Various oil product arbitrage routes are presented, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, HSFO, and naphtha. Some routes are open, while others are closed, with corresponding price differentials [2][4]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market Dynamics and Spreads - **Diesel**: Global demand is expected to be flat year - on - year, with 3Q25 showing moderate growth and 4Q25 being weak. Diesel cracking spreads have increased by $4 per barrel this month. The attack on Russian refineries may further tighten the global balance [5]. - **Jet/Kero**: Global demand growth is slowing, but aviation fuel remains a growth driver. Asian demand in 4Q25 is expected to increase by 140,000 barrels per day [5]. - **Gasoline**: Global demand growth is slowing. Chinese demand is decreasing due to the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, while Indian and Southeast Asian demand is increasing [5]. 3.3 Crude Oil Cross - Regional Arbitrage - Different crude oil varieties are considered for cross - regional arbitrage in markets such as USGC, USAC, NWE, and Med. Some arbitrage opportunities are open, while others are closed, with corresponding values [6][7][8]. 3.4 Key Market News - President Trump has set conditions for Hamas regarding hostage release. If Hamas refuses, Israel will receive full support to destroy Hamas [9]. - The Nigerian government will hold talks with the labor union to resolve the crude oil production halt threat at the Dangote refinery, which has a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day [9]. - The EU has restored sanctions on Iran, including restrictions on crude oil procurement and transportation [10]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking profit on naked long positions in crude oil, going long on volatility before the holiday, and holding calendar spreads [1]. Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil - WTI November crude futures closed down $0.01/barrel, a 0.02% decline, at $64.98/barrel; Brent November crude futures closed up $0.11/barrel, a 0.16% increase, at $69.42/barrel; SC2511 crude futures closed up 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.45% increase, at 491.10 yuan/barrel [1]. 2. Main Regional Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil arbitrage scenarios are presented, including different target markets, benchmark crudes, alternative crudes, and their corresponding values and statuses. For example, in the USGC market, when using WTI as the benchmark and Arab Extra as the alternative, the value is -$5.93/barrel and the status is "Closed" [2]. 3. Refined Oil Arbitrage - Various refined oil arbitrage routes and scenarios are detailed, such as gasoline from Europe to New York with an open status and a value of $1.78/barrel, using MR tankers for transportation and involving multiple adjustments and costs [8]. 4. Refinery Profits - Refinery profit calculations for different regions are provided, including USGC, USAC, Midwest, Rotterdam, Mediterranean, Singapore, etc. Each region has specific refinery configurations, benchmark crudes, and calculation methods [10]. 5. Key Market News - Trump urged Turkey's Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil and hinted at lifting the ban on Turkey's purchase of US F - 35 fighter jets. In 2024, Turkey was Russia's fourth - largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $52 billion, mainly in fossil fuels and electronics [11]. - Trump had a good talk about the Gaza issue and mentioned that Hungary, as a land - locked country, can only buy oil from Russia [12]. - Iraq's central government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region reached a "historic agreement" on September 25, 2025, where the central government's oil ministry will receive and export crude oil from the region's oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [14]. - Iran's vice - president stated that Iran will not abandon its nuclear program and will jointly build new nuclear power plants with Russia. Russia's state atomic energy company is continuing the construction of the second and third units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant [14]. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Russia will ban diesel exports until the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban until the end of the year [14]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, representing weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong trends respectively [13].