智通财经APP获悉，日本将对部分来自中国和韩国的钢铁产品启动反倾销调查，这是该国为保护本土生 产商、应对进口冲击采取的最新措施。日本贸易和财政部周三在一份声明中表示，调查预计将在一年内 完成，将调查热浸镀锌卷板和带材的流动情况。今年4月，包括新日铁和神户制钢在内的四家公司提出 了申请。日本贸易部和财政部表示，将为包括韩国和中国供应商在内的相关方提供陈述证据的机会，然 后再决定是否征收关税。 ...

| | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,362 | 1.56% | 9,414 | 0.56% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,488 | 0.38% | 8,516 | 0.33% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,802 | 2.23% | 10,079 | 2.83% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,400 | 0.36% | 4,425 | 0.52% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.07 | 0.13% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 443,030 | -124344 | 270,663 | -29,322 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 140,203 | -23,809 | 306,250 | -28,769 | | | ...

昨日（8月12日），国内菜粕期货不同合约的走势出现分化——近月合约大跌，远月合约上涨。 谈及菜粕期货近、远月合约走势分化，银河期货粕类研究员陈界正表示，菜粕期货近月合约前期涨势较 强，对利多因素体现得比较充分。在前期中加贸易摩擦影响下，中国进口加拿大菜籽、菜粕数量明显减 少，使菜粕供应偏紧。因此，前期菜粕近月合约明显上涨。不过，当前豆粕市场供需宽松，且后续大豆 到港量有望持续维持高位，供需宽松的情况将延续。这对菜粕具有明显的压力，按照当前豆粕与菜粕的 价差看，虽然菜粕后续供应偏紧张，但需求一般，近月合约回落的压力明显。 中辉期货农产品板块负责人贾晖表示，从去年中国发起对加拿大菜籽反倾销调查开始，国内进口颗粒菜 粕库存持续增加，并在今年2月达到峰值。虽然3月以来整体呈现去库状态，但库存绝对值仍处于历史高 位。截至8月1日，港口菜粕库存量达61万吨，远高于去年同期的29.13万吨。虽然中国对加拿大菜粕仍 维持100%关税，但考虑到菜粕存储周期短，较高的港口库存存在去化要求。截至8月11日，菜粕注册仓 单量处于十年来同期最高水平。仓单压力直接导致菜粕近月合约价格下跌。 （文章来源：期货日报） 记者注意到，8月12日 ...

1. Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US CPI data in July generally support the Fed's rate cut in September, but the slightly higher-than-expected core inflation fails to strengthen the market's rate cut expectations and limits the subsequent rate cut space [2][14]. - The A-share market is strong, and the two loan discount policies announced yesterday may have a positive impact on reducing the debt costs of enterprises and residents and stimulating purchasing power [3][17]. - In the second half of August, factors unfavorable to the bond market are increasing, and the bond market is expected to be slightly weaker in a volatile manner. However, due to the lack of obvious improvement in the fundamentals, it is hard to say that the bond market will turn bearish trend - wise. The upward - trending interest rates in the second half of August will bring allocation opportunities [4][23]. - Steel prices are running strongly, mainly driven by the strong expectation of environmental protection production restrictions. However, since the terminal demand has not changed much, risks should be watched out for [5][43]. - Due to supply - side risks such as production line maintenance and mine shutdowns, the prices of lithium carbonate and other products are expected to be strong in the short term [6][58]. - Oil prices are oscillating weakly, and both EIA and OPEC slightly raise the market demand forecast for next year [7][60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US July unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the gold price oscillated slightly lower. The CPI data support the Fed's rate cut in September, but the core inflation limits the rate cut space. Short - term gold remains in a volatile pattern [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Two loan discount policies are introduced, and China and the US agree to continue suspending the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs. The A - share market is approaching the previous high of 3674. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [16][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on monetary policy. The US July CPI is slightly lower than expected, but the core CPI exceeds expectations, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September. The US stock market is expected to remain strong, but inflation risks exist [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Three departments issue the implementation plan for the fiscal discount policy on personal consumption loans. The bond market is under pressure, and it is recommended that trading desks be cautious when betting on rebounds [22][23][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - USDA unexpectedly lowers the US soybean ending inventory. The report is beneficial to soybean meal, and it is expected that the soybean meal futures price will remain strong before China resumes purchasing US soybeans [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The expected ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 is lower than expected, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is initiated. It is recommended to take long positions in the domestic oil market or adopt the strategy of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil in the 01 contract [28][30][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton textile industry PMI in July drops significantly, and the new order index reaches a low level. The growth progress of US cotton is slow, and the ICE cotton price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is weak. The terminal demand is weak, and the rice - flour price difference has no driving force to strengthen [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The cost of hog farming is under control. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads [37][38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import corn auction turnover rate is low, and the corn price is weak. It is recommended to avoid the 09 contract and hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts [39][40]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales of key real - estate enterprises decline, and the steel price is strong due to the expectation of environmental protection production restrictions. However, risks should be watched out for as the terminal demand is stable [41][43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Shanxi Province adjusts the mining rights policy. The current supply - demand of alumina is in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some refineries have maintenance plans in August. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low levels and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external positive spreads [48][49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc inventory decreases slightly, while domestic social inventory increases significantly. It is recommended to manage positions for unilateral positions, pay attention to medium - term positive spreads, and wait and see for internal - external spreads [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The future demand for nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to increase. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to band - trading opportunities, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There are supply - side risks such as mine shutdowns. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive spreads between months [58]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production increases in July, and oil prices are weakly volatile. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term [59][60][61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating narrowly, and it is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [62][63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is gradually weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [65]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price trends of different pulp varieties are differentiated. The pulp futures price may rise, but the upward space is limited [66]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price rises, but the fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to oscillate [67]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the market structure changes. It is expected to adjust in a volatile manner in the short term [68][69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips is stable, and the industry is in a state of production reduction. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [70][72]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is volatile. The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price may be under pressure, but the downward space is limited [73][74]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA futures is strongly oscillating, and the demand side is weak. It is expected to adjust in a volatile manner in the short term [75][77]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene is expected to be strong, and the production of styrene is high. It is recommended to treat it in a volatile manner and pay attention to cost - side changes [78][79]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Due to the investigation of an official in Qinghai, the market is worried about supply - side disturbances. It is recommended to manage positions [80][81][82]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price decline narrows, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to operate with caution on the single - side and focus on arbitrage operations [83].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated anti-dumping investigations against imported canola seeds, halogenated butyl rubber, and pea starch from Canada, citing evidence of dumping and substantial harm to domestic industries [1][2][14]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigations - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of anti-dumping investigations for imported canola seeds and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada [1][2]. - The preliminary ruling indicated that the dumping margins were 75.8% for canola seeds and between 26.2% to 40.5% for halogenated butyl rubber from Canada [1][14]. - The investigations are based on evidence showing that the imported products were sold at prices significantly lower than domestic products, causing operational difficulties for local industries [2][14]. Group 2: Specific Product Details - The halogenated butyl rubber is categorized under the import and export tariff codes 40023910 and 40023990, and is primarily used in applications such as airtight layers for tires and sealants [8][10][11]. - The canola seeds are classified under tariff codes 12051090 and 12059090, mainly used for producing canola oil and meal [17][21]. - The pea starch, which is also under investigation, is used in various applications including food production and as a thickening agent, and is classified under tariff code 11081900 [26][28][29]. Group 3: Investigation Procedures and Outcomes - The Ministry of Commerce will impose temporary anti-dumping measures starting August 14, 2025, requiring importers to provide corresponding deposit amounts based on the determined dumping margins [6][15][22]. - The investigation period for the pea starch will cover from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, while the damage assessment period will span from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2024 [24][30]. - Stakeholders have a 20-day window to register for participation in the investigation and submit relevant information [30][34].

经过调查，初步证据表明，进口被调查产品存在倾销，相关国内产业受到了实质损害，且倾销与实质损 害之间存在因果关系。 答：2024年9月9日，商务部以自主立案方式对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽发起反倾销调查。2024年9月 14日，应中国国内产业申请，商务部对原产于加拿大等国的进口卤化丁基橡胶发起反倾销调查。 8月12日，商务部新闻发言人就对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽、原产于加拿大等国的进口卤化丁基橡胶 反倾销调查初裁答记者问。 问：我们注意到商务部网站发布了对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽、原产于加拿大等国的进口卤化丁基橡 胶反倾销调查初裁公告，能否介绍相关情况？ 立案后，商务部本着公平、公正、公开、透明的原则，严格按照中国相关法律法规和世贸组织相关规则 进行调查。经过调查，初步证据表明，进口被调查产品存在倾销，相关国内产业受到了实质损害，且倾 销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》有关规定，商务部于2025年8月 12日发布两案初裁公告，决定实施临时反倾销措施，裁定油菜籽案加拿大公司的倾销幅度为75.8%、卤 化丁基橡胶案加拿大公司的倾销幅度为26.2%-40.5%。 ...

人民财讯8月12日电，2024年9月14日，商务部(以下称调查机关)发布2024年第38号公告，决定对原产于 加拿大、日本和印度的进口卤化丁基橡胶(以下称被调查产品)进行反倾销立案调查。经调查，调查期内 自印度进口被调查产品数量占同期中国进口卤化丁基橡胶总量的比例低于3%。根据《反倾销条例》第 九条和第二十七条规定，调查机关认定该进口数量属可忽略不计，决定终止对原产于印度的进口被调查 产品的反倾销调查。 调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质 损害，而且倾销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。根据规定，调查机关决定采用保证金形式实施临时反倾 销措施。自2025年8月14日起，进口经营者在进口原产于加拿大和日本的卤化丁基橡胶时，应依据初裁 决定所确定的各公司的保证金比率向中华人民共和国海关提供相应的保证金。 ...

农产品早报 2025-08-11 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五夜盘美豆小幅下跌，天气较好及美豆缺乏中国买船持续施压，豆粕则因缺乏美豆买船巴西报价强 势获得成本支撑，目前运行在保本价附近。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2910 元/吨，上周豆粕成交 较好，提货小幅回落，下游库存天数小幅上升 0.32 天至 8.37 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 217.75 万吨，本周预计压榨 236.95 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏好。巴西方面，升贴水上涨后近两日稳定。总体来看，美国大豆处于低估 值、供大于求状态，暂未出现明确的方向性驱动，近期持续未有利好提供导致美豆可能试探前低水平。 国内大豆进口成本则处于因 ...

Group 1 - The European Commission announced an anti-dumping investigation against polyamide yarns originating from China, initiated by the Ad Hoc Coalition of European Producers of Yarns of Polyamide [1] - The investigation period for dumping is set from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, while the injury investigation period spans from January 1, 2022, until the end of the dumping investigation period [1] - The preliminary ruling for this case is expected to be made within 7 months, with a maximum extension of up to 8 months [1]

Group 1 - The Eurasian Economic Commission has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against high-density polyethylene originating from Azerbaijan, following a request from companies within the Eurasian Economic Union [1] - The investigation pertains to solid primary forms of polyethylene with a density of no less than 0.94 grams per cubic centimeter, classified under the Eurasian Economic Union tariff codes 3901209001 and 3901209009 [1]