1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - favorable expectations support the rubber price to steadily rise tentatively. Some cis - butadiene rubber plants are planned for scheduled rotation maintenance, but the overall operating rate is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 20, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber was in a stalemate, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened, driving the supply and market prices to rise slightly, but downstream resistance to price increases emerged [6]. - The report also presents price data of various synthetic rubber products such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, including ex - factory prices and market prices, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Butadiene: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 115,600 tons (a 1.75% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.53%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while Guangxi Petrochemical stably increased production, leading to an overall increase in total production [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhenhua New Materials restarted, the cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance, and the cis - butadiene plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo regular maintenance next week. The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber production last week was 29,200 tons (a 3.88% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.64% [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - Semi - steel tires: The semi - steel tire market remained stable during the period. The all - season tire market was still dull, with channels mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and the inventory clearance rhythm did not change significantly. The supply of winter tires was abundant, and terminal sales advanced steadily [3]. - All - steel tires: This week, the all - steel tire market was relatively stable compared to last week, with weak trading. Due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand weakened, channel inventory was relatively sufficient, and merchants' willingness to restock was limited. However, as inventory is digested and monthly purchase tasks are due, agents are still expected to make purchases in the next cycle [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Butadiene: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 39,800 tons, a 37.24% increase from the previous week. Most refinery plants were operating stably, but some enterprises' inventory increased due to downstream load and external sales trading rhythm. Port inventory increased due to relatively concentrated vessel arrivals and slow spot price increases [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 31,510 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. Raw material buyers were actively following up, the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, production enterprise inventory increased, and trading enterprise inventory changed slightly [3]. 3.4 Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 335 yuan/ton, in East China was - 135 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 85 yuan/ton [3]. - Spread/Price Ratio: The RU - BR spread was 4855 yuan/ton (a 1.78% increase); the NR - BR spread was 1900 yuan/ton (a 4.40% increase); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.21 [3]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - Butadiene: The production gross profit from butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1514 yuan/ton, and that from C4 extraction was 194.88 yuan/ton [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 784 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 7.91% [3]. 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The US Department of Labor reported that the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Department of Labor also revised down the non - farm payroll data for July and August [3]. - US sanctions on top Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21 [3]. - There are expectations that China and the US will reach an agreement to reduce tariffs on November 27 [3]. - Delegations from Ukraine and the US will hold consultations in Switzerland on the parameters of a possible future peace agreement with Russia [3]. - China has taken counter - measures due to remarks by the Japanese Prime Minister on the Taiwan issue, leading to a deterioration in Sino - Japanese relations [3]. 3.7 Investment Views and Trading Strategies - Investment View: The overall operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitical situations [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of supply - demand game, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate slightly stronger next week. The mainstream transactions will be concentrated on low - priced private resources. Attention should be paid to the price guidance of butadiene at the cost end. [2] - The trading strategy suggests no unilateral trading and recommends paying attention to the arbitrage of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales BR9000 was 10,300 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was between 10,300 - 10,400 yuan/ton. [5] - This cycle, the butadiene end of raw materials stopped falling and rebounded. The cost support gradually strengthened, boosting the trading center of the butadiene rubber market to move up. The domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate recovered. The price of private resources was still significantly lower than that of Sinopec and PetroChina resources, but the negotiation center gradually increased to around 10,000 yuan, and the transaction follow - up was less than last week. [5] 3.2 Price Analysis - **China Butadiene Rubber (BR9000)**: On November 14, 2025, the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina in different regions increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with November 13, with a daily increase rate of about 1.94%. The market prices in different regions showed different changes, with some rising and some falling slightly. [6] - **China Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain**: The price of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber showed different degrees of change on November 14 compared with the previous period. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase rate of 1.51%. [7] 3.3 Device Maintenance - **Butadiene Devices**: Many domestic butadiene production enterprises had device maintenance plans in 2025, with the maintenance capacity ranging from 30,000 tons to 250,000 tons, and the maintenance time varying. [9] - **High - cis Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Some high - cis butadiene rubber devices were in normal operation, while others were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Maoming Petrochemical planned to stop for maintenance for about 50 days at the end of November. [9] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 113,600 tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.99%), and the capacity utilization rate was 71%. The high - cis butadiene rubber production was 28,100 tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.92%), and the capacity utilization rate was 69.92%. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market was supported by the seller's price, but in the next cycle, the new production capacity in South China might release output, and the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes would put pressure on the market. [2] - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, the sales of all - season tires were dull, and the demand for snow tires was expected to continue to release. In the all - steel tire market, the overall demand continued to weaken in the off - season in the north, and the market mainly focused on digesting inventory in the short term. [2] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene Inventory**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%. Most butadiene devices were operating stably, but some suppliers reduced production to control prices, affecting the accumulation of enterprise inventory. The port inventory decreased due to the arrival of imported ships but the non - statistics of some unloading ships. [2] - **High - cis Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 30,820 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.22%. Private resources had price advantages, attracting middlemen to purchase, but the sales performance weakened, and the inventory of production and trade enterprises increased. [2] 3.6 Other Analyses - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 345 yuan/ton, in East China was - 145 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 45 yuan/ton. [2] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,770 yuan/ton (- 0.73%); the NR - BR spread was 1,820 yuan/ton (- 1.36%); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.35%. [2] - **Profit**: The production gross profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,724 yuan/ton; the production gross profit of C4 extraction was 26.97 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 790 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was 8.14%. [2] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: On November 10, the People's Bank of China carried out 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 41.6 billion yuan. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 66.5%. There were signs of escalation in the geopolitical situation between the United States and Venezuela, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affected energy facilities. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, frequent macro - news disturbances have led to a significant decline in butadiene prices, deepening the market's pessimistic sentiment and causing a sharp drop in futures prices. Attention should be paid to the spot price adjustment rhythm and the price guidance of natural rubber [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. Although the natural rubber market was strong this period, it failed to drive the butadiene rubber market, and the price difference between the two varieties widened to over 4,000 yuan/ton. The increase in external sales resources of raw materials and the continuous decline in the external market price led to a rapid rise in market bearish sentiment. Affected by the maintenance of Qilu and Yangzi's butadiene rubber plants and future maintenance expectations, the offers of some spot - tight brands in Sinopec and PetroChina and in East and South China were firm, but the rapid weakening of the cost side led to a further decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber were under pressure to be lowered, but the large price difference between brands was not significantly improved, and the low - price range transactions in the week gradually weakened. At the end of the period, affected by the news of the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - level partially alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but it had limited impact on boosting the spot market trading of butadiene rubber [5] 3.2 Price Data - **Butadiene (BD)**: The prices of butadiene from various manufacturers and in different markets showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli decreased by 8.06% week - on - week, and the price of Sinopec East China Yangzi decreased by 12.79% week - on - week [9] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's BR9000 decreased by 1.79% week - on - week. The market prices in different regions also generally declined, with the largest week - on - week decline of 3.69% in North China [8][9] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The ex - factory and market prices of SBR also decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec North China Qilu 1502 decreased by 1.75% week - on - week [9] 3.3 Device Maintenance - **Butadiene Devices**: Many butadiene devices in China were under maintenance or shutdown in 2025. For example, Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical's devices were shut down, while some devices such as those of Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production [3][11] - **Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Some butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical's butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and Zhenhua New Materials' device was expected to be under maintenance in November [3][11] 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber was affected by device operations. The output of butadiene increased due to the resumption of some devices, while the output of butadiene rubber was affected by device maintenance [3] - **Demand**: The demand for semi - steel tires was mixed, with the replacement market for all - season tires being weak and the demand for snow tires growing. The demand for all - steel tires was generally weak, with low replenishment willingness from channel merchants [3] - **Inventory**: The butadiene port inventory increased, while the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in enterprises and traders decreased [3] - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China was neutral [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The spreads between RU - BR, NR - BR, and the BR - SC ratio were bullish [3] - **Profit**: The production profits of butadiene and butadiene rubber were bearish [3] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 14th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan achieved positive progress, and the sanctions on two Russian refineries by Europe and the United States and India's re - planning of energy procurement plans had a neutral impact on the market [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: No trading strategy was recommended [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests a unilateral "oscillatory upward" trend and an arbitrage strategy of "long BR, short NR/RU" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of butadiene provide some support, and the profit has improved. The valuation of cis - butadiene rubber has recently been repaired. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot trading rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's high - cis butadiene rubber price was cumulatively reduced by 300 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies reduced the price by 500 yuan/ton. The cost situation of cis - butadiene rubber has slightly improved. Due to device maintenance, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease. Affected by macro news and downstream price - pressing purchases, the spot negotiation price has declined. At the end of the cycle, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot markets rebounded rapidly [7]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 102,200 tons (-2.36%), with a capacity utilization rate of 65.79%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 30,000 tons (0.18%), with a capacity utilization rate of 74.82%. Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants were in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or restart, affecting production volume [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but there are differences in shipment performance [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.99%; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. There is concern about the inventory increase due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels and sufficient expected imports in October [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - The BR cross - variety spread and month - to - month spread, as well as the seasonality analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC, are presented in the report. The RU - BR spread was 3,770 yuan/ton (-7.94%), the NR - BR spread was 1,300 yuan/ton (15.04%), and the BR - SC ratio was 0.52% [3][12]. 3.5 Cost and Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 124 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 1,816.55 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.39% [3]. 3.6 Device Operation Analysis - Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants are in different states of operation, maintenance, or shutdown. For example, many butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi and Sierbang are in a shutdown state, and some butadiene rubber plants like Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical are under maintenance [3][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly, and cis - butadiene rubber has been suppressed by macro - sentiment, with price support faltering. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production capacity utilization, the synthetic rubber market is expected to be bearish in the short term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures contract and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, domestic butadiene production was 104,700 tons (up 1.08%), with a capacity utilization rate of 67.37%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while some others like Sinopec Korea Wuhan and Fujian United restarted, leading to a slight increase in domestic production [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant had a short - term shutdown for maintenance, while Shandong Yihua and Shandong Weite's plants restarted. Domestic private cis - butadiene rubber production increased [2][3] 3.2 Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: During the "Double Festival" holiday, private car travel increased, boosting terminal demand. Terminal stores' shipments increased significantly, and channel goods circulation improved. The market transaction price remained stable during the period [2] - **All - steel tires**: Due to the holiday, most merchants had short - term vacations, resulting in a decrease in channel trading volume. Most merchants focused on inventory digestion, and restocking was postponed. Terminal demand was weak [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Butadiene**: Last week, butadiene port inventory was 27,750 tons, with no change from the previous week. Refinery inventory decreased, and port inventory increased due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises slightly increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina's sales companies lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of October 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price in China was 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton [2][3] - **Butadiene**: The price of butadiene continued its weak trend, with the ex - factory price and market price showing a downward trend [2][3][7] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Butadiene**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation was - 194 yuan/ton, and the production profit of C4 extraction was 1,765.83 yuan/ton [2] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 364 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.15% [2] 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly. Butadiene rubber is affected by macro - sentiment, and the market's attempt to support prices has been hindered. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production, the synthetic rubber market is viewed with a bearish attitude in the short - term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During the reporting period, the prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown of Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant due to a malfunction did not boost the supply in the short - term as the overall supply of private spot resources was sufficient, and there was an expectation of concentrated restart of maintenance plants at the end of September. The increase in external supply of butadiene led to a decline in the transaction center, and the cost side also lacked driving force. Although the mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber was lowered at the end of the previous period, the price centers of arbitrage resources and private resources in the first and middle of the week were still significantly lower than the spot cost of the two - oil resources. Some industry players were still waiting for a further decline in the mainstream supply price. In the middle and late weeks, the supply of low - priced arbitrage resources decreased, and the price gap between high - end and low - end spot narrowed slightly. As the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end, downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 103,000 tons (-1.91%), and the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%. Devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Fujian Refining & Petrochemical's No.1 unit remained shut down, and production continued to decline [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene rubber plants of Shandong Weite, Taiyo - Yuubu, and Haopu New Materials continued maintenance. Shandong Yihua's plant was shut down temporarily due to a malfunction. The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [2] 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was dull. In some regions, the sales of all - season tires were weak, the social inventory was sufficient and the consumption was slow, so agents were not active in purchasing. For the snow - tire market, product promotion meetings of various brands were held one after another, and the channel inventory was relatively sufficient. Future attention should be paid to the terminal demand [2] - **All - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was average, mainly for regular sales, and the transaction price was stable. There was no obvious pre - holiday stocking, and the inventory was mainly consumed during the period. It is expected that the market stocking volume will increase significantly in the next period [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 277,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13%. Some devices continued to operate at reduced capacity, the refinery inventory decreased, and the suppliers sold more goods before the holiday, so the inventory remained at a relatively low level. The port inventory increased significantly due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels during the week, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of major enterprises remained stable during the period, but most prices showed a week - on - week downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's North China Qilu, North China Yanshan, East China Yangzi, and South China Maoming decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][8] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,040 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the NR - BR spread was 1,005 yuan/ton (+17.54%); the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.12% [2] 3.5 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was 186 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction was 1,861.1 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 225 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 1.89% [2] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - On September 25 local time, US President Trump announced on his social media platform that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1. The crude oil market is in a range - bound game due to geopolitical factors, sanctions, and the expected oversupply in the fundamentals caused by OPEC+ production increases. The US non - farm payroll data for August was lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, with two more interest rate cuts expected within the year, with a total cut of 50bp or more. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short - term and show a tense trend [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened, and the list price of cis - butadiene rubber has been lowered. Although downstream demand is recovering, attention should be paid to the support of macro - policies for demand. In terms of valuation, the correlation between BR and NR on the futures market has increased, and the rubber attribute is relatively strong [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have cumulatively lowered the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China is between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [6] - The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber have generally declined. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli's butadiene has decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to September 10, with a week - on - week decline of 1.10% [8] Device Status - **Butadiene Devices**: Many devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical are in a shutdown state. Some devices in Central China have reduced their loads, and some in South China have temporarily shut down, resulting in a continuous decline in production [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' cis - butadiene rubber devices are under maintenance. High - cis cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization are generally stable [3] Market Influencing Factors - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is affected by device shutdowns and maintenance, showing a neutral driving force [3] - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, channel sales have increased, especially in the snow tire market. In the all - steel tire market, the market price is stable, but the replacement market demand has not significantly increased, and some enterprises face export pressure [3] - **Inventory**: Butadiene port inventory and high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprise + trader inventory have decreased. However, there is still an expectation of future vessel arrivals for butadiene [3] - **Basis**: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China shows a neutral state [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The spreads of RU - BR, NR - BR, and the price ratio of BR - SC are in a bullish state [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber shows a neutral state [3] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: OPEC+ has started the second - round production increase cycle, the US economic data is weak, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and geopolitical tensions in some regions still exist [3] Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Oscillating upward [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of BR rubber shows wide - range volatile movement. The impact of device maintenance on supply is limited, while demand has mixed factors, and inventory has a negative influence. Fundamentals are relatively strong, but trading volume has weakened. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile state [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral upward trend in volatility. For arbitrage, it is advisable to pay attention to going long on BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have been reduced by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The suspension of several butadiene rubber devices has led to a slight decline in domestic production and capacity utilization. However, the sufficient supply of most brands limits the price increase. Weakening demand for raw material butadiene and price softening, along with downstream purchasing behavior, have put pressure on prices [7]. 3.2 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - In 2025, many refineries of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC have device maintenance plans, involving various regions and different types of devices, with a wide range of maintenance capacities and time spans [12]. 3.3 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Device Maintenance Data Statistics - Many butadiene production enterprises have experienced device shutdowns, affecting production capacity. For butadiene rubber, some devices are in normal operation, while others are under maintenance, and some have future shutdown plans [13]. 3.4 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Market Data - **Supply**: Butadiene production and high - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization have declined due to device shutdowns [4]. - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, the replacement market is stable, with increased production of winter tires and some shortages in all - season tires. In the all - steel tire market, the replacement market price is stable, with a slight improvement in trading volume [4]. - **Inventory**: Butadiene port inventory has decreased, while butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventories have increased [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 165 yuan/ton, in East China is - 65 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,205 yuan/ton (2.19%), the NR - BR spread is 940 yuan/ton (6.82%), and the BR - SC price ratio is - 0.36% [4]. - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation is 36 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction is 1,997.21 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 128 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.06% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bearish Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoint of the Report - International crude oil prices have been declining, and the price of BR (Butadiene Rubber) has been consolidating. The supply of butadiene is affected by various factors such as device shutdowns and restarts, and the demand for rubber tires is relatively stable. The inventory of butadiene and BR has increased, and the profit of the rubber industry is under pressure. Geopolitical factors also have a negative impact on the market. Overall, the market for butadiene rubber is expected to be bearish with oscillations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton this period. As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton [4] 2. Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 102,500 tons (-0.87%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Dongming Petrochemical were shut down, while some devices were restarted. The overall production decreased [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: In July, some butadiene rubber devices were shut down, and some were restarted. It is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will continue to increase in August [3] 3. Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel Tires**: The replacement market price has no obvious adjustment this period. Some brands launched special - price patterns at the beginning of the month, and the actual market price is stable [3] - **All - steel Tires**: In August, the market price is mostly stable. Some brands planned to raise prices, but other enterprises did not follow up. The economic tire specifications are in short supply, and the inventory of mid - to high - end products is relatively sufficient [3] 4. Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.35%. The overall inventory of enterprises has little fluctuation, and there is no obvious inventory pressure recently [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly this period [3] 5. Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, and Profit Analysis - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 115 yuan/ton, in East China is 35 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,035 yuan/ton (41.33%), the NR - BR spread is 890 yuan/ton (23.61%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.97% [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation and carbon four extraction, as well as the production profit and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber, are all under pressure [3] 6. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which leads to a loose supply of crude oil and a weak demand in the refined oil market. International oil and gas prices are oscillating downward. Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on Indian goods exported to the US, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation is approaching [3] 7. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: The maintenance of devices in Shandong and South China has a positive impact on the supply price of butadiene, but the short - term price change is small. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber remain the same, with traders reducing inventory and factories increasing inventory. The overall inventory level changes little, and the market trading volume is average [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be oscillating. For arbitrage, pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to be concerned about include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is a bearish oscillation, indicating that the price of butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. Core View of the Report - The sentiment has declined, and there are negative factors on the cost side. The price of butadiene rubber (BR) is oscillating at a low level. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase in August, while the demand shows a neutral trend. The inventory and basis show a positive trend, and the profit and geopolitical - macro factors are negative [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales has been reduced by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of major sales companies of PetroChina has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton in total. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,800 and 12,100 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has changed, and the prices of butadiene rubber, raw material butadiene, and related natural rubber have gradually declined [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 1.034 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.97%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 910,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.46%. Some butadiene devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the production of butadiene rubber is expected to continue to increase in August [4]. Demand - For semi - steel tires, the replacement market's sales performance has continued the weak trend of last week, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. For all - steel tires, the market transactions have increased slightly compared with last week, and some brands may raise prices next month [4]. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.76%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 31,320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. The overall inventory of sample enterprises has limited fluctuations [4]. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 55 yuan/ton, in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and in South China is 95 yuan/ton. The futures price is higher than the spot price [4]. Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread is 2,855 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9.72%), the NR - BR spread is - 2,044 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20.44%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.94% [4]. Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation is 176 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction is 1,988 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 176 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.47% [4]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The fundamentals of crude oil are continuously loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is oscillating downward. The market's optimistic sentiment towards the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal chemical and new energy chains has been given back. Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that China - US tariffs may ease [4]. Device Information - In 2025, many refineries in China have carried out or planned to carry out device overhauls, including major state - owned refineries and local refineries. Some butadiene and butadiene rubber production devices are also in a state of overhaul or shutdown [12][13]. Price Trend Charts - The report provides various price trend charts, including the price trends of butadiene rubber, butadiene, and other related products, as well as the seasonal charts of prices, production, consumption, and inventory [15][21][32]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Oscillation; Arbitrage trading: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device overhauls, and geopolitical factors [4].