Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - Investment sector sentiment has decreased, while consumption and real estate sectors remain stable[1] - Seasonal analysis shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, underperforming historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food prices have increased, while non-food prices have decreased; May CPI food prices are expected to be around -1.0% month-on-month, and overall CPI is projected to decline to -0.4% year-on-year[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decrease by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and fall to -3.1% year-on-year[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 6, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 6 is 2.24%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,101.65[20]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic momentum[1] - Index B standardized shows a decrease of 0.43, significantly weaker than the historical average increase of 0.17 per week after the Spring Festival[1] - Investment and consumption sectors show a decline in prosperity, while the real estate sector remains stable[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices both decreased this week, with April CPI food prices expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, and non-food prices by about 0.1%[2] - Overall CPI is projected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year CPI expected to rise to zero[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decline by about 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -2.8%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of April 25, 2025, is 2.60%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to decrease to 3,141.29 from the current average of 3,272.71[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B slightly declined, indicating a weak trend[1] - Investment sector sentiment continues to rise, while the real estate sector shows a decline[1] - Seasonal comparison shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly post-Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.14, underperforming historical averages[1] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential downward adjustment[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of April 11, 2025, is expected to rise, while the Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to decline[1] - The deviation between predicted and actual ten-year government bond yields reached a historical high of 85 basis points, indicating significant divergence from the macroeconomic fundamentals[18] Price Tracking - Food and non-food prices both increased this week, with March CPI food prices expected to decline by approximately 1.5% month-on-month[2] - The overall CPI is projected to decrease by about 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year recovery to -0.1%[2] - March PPI is expected to show a month-on-month decline of about 0.1%, remaining flat year-on-year at -2.2%[11]

Economic Growth - The domestic economic growth momentum is steadily improving, with the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remaining positive and Index B continuing to rise[1] - Investment sector sentiment is improving, while consumer and real estate sectors show little change; investment performance is relatively strong[1] - Seasonal comparison indicates that Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, with this week's standardized increase at 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Asset Prices and Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; a mean reversion suggests that the ten-year government bond yield is expected to rise and the Shanghai Composite Index to fall in the upcoming week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of March 21, 2025, is 2.47%, while the actual yield is 1.87%, indicating a deviation of 61 basis points[18] - The predicted Shanghai Composite Index for the same week is 3,174.98, lower than the actual value of 3,411.22[19] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices have both slightly decreased, with March CPI food expected to be -1.0%, non-food at -0.1%, and overall CPI at -0.3%[2] - The domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to -2.1%[2]