证券研究报告 | 2025年08月24日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标连续两周超季节性上升 主要结论：高频指标继续超季节性上升。 | 证券分析师：李智能 | 证券分析师：田地 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-22940456 | 0755-81982035 | | | lizn@guosen.com.cn | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980516060001 | S0980524090003 | | | 基础数据 | | | | 固定资产投资累计同比 | | 1.60 | | 社零总额当月同比 | | 3.70 | | 出口当月同比 | | 7.20 | | M2 | | 8.80 | | 市场走势 | | | 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 经济增长方面，本周(8 月 22 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续上升。从分项来看，本周消费领域景气有所回升，投资、房地产 领域景气基本保持不变，本周消费领域表现相对较优。从季节性比较来看， 本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.3，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长 ...

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows a seasonal decline of 0.43, indicating a slowdown in domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment sector sentiment has improved, while consumption and real estate sectors have seen a decline in sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 2.80%, retail sales year-on-year growth is at 4.80%, and exports year-on-year growth is at 7.20%[3] Price Trends - Food prices have increased by approximately 1.0% month-on-month, while non-food prices have decreased by about -0.1%, leading to an overall CPI increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year CPI drop to -0.3%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.6%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of August 15, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 15, 2025, is 2.42%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,196.51[20]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating an improvement in economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Real estate sector sentiment improved, while investment sentiment declined, and consumption sentiment remained stable[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decrease by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices are projected to remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 20, 2025, is 2.23%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,098.20[20] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 4.00%[3] - Retail sales total for the month shows a year-on-year increase of 5.10%[3] - Exports for the month have a year-on-year growth of 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 7.90%[3]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show signs of decline, while consumer sector stability is maintained[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to decline to -0.4% year-on-year[2] - The PPI is projected to decrease by approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - Investment sector sentiment has decreased, while consumption and real estate sectors remain stable[1] - Seasonal analysis shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, underperforming historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food prices have increased, while non-food prices have decreased; May CPI food prices are expected to be around -1.0% month-on-month, and overall CPI is projected to decline to -0.4% year-on-year[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decrease by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and fall to -3.1% year-on-year[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 6, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 6 is 2.24%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,101.65[20]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but experienced a slight increase of 0.25%, closing at 3247.93 points with a trading volume of 47.586 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has risen by 1.60%, by 1.48% over the last three months, and by 0.54% year-to-date [1] Industry Analysis - The Shanghai Stock Exchange categorizes listed companies into five major sectors: Industrial, Commercial, Real Estate, Public Utilities, and Comprehensive [1] - The index reflects the economic conditions and overall performance of companies within these sectors, with a base date of April 30, 1993, and a base point of 1358.78 [1] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Composite Index include: - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (12.82%) - Agricultural Bank of China (11.84%) - Bank of China (7.83%) - China Merchants Bank (6.09%) - China Life Insurance (5.41%) - China Telecom (4.11%) - Ping An Insurance (3.88%) - Industrial Bank (3.17%) - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (2.39%) - CITIC Securities (2.11%) [1] - The financial sector accounts for 75.80% of the index, followed by Industrial (7.47%), Communication Services (6.66%), Consumer Discretionary (2.88%), Healthcare (2.34%), Information Technology (1.94%), Real Estate (1.06%), Consumer Staples (0.79%), Energy (0.71%), and Materials (0.35%) [2] Sample Inclusion Criteria - Securities are included in the index after three months of listing if they rank in the top ten by average total market capitalization; others are included after one year [2] - Securities under risk warning are removed from the index starting the second Friday of the month following the warning, while those that have their warning lifted are included the same way [2]

Group 1 - The outlook for China's economy is becoming less pessimistic, with ING raising its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7% [1][4] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for China's GDP growth from 4.0% to 4.6% [1][4] - JPMorgan has also increased its forecast for China's 2025 economic growth from 4.1% to 4.8% [1][2] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between China and the US is expected to boost economic optimism, leading to a recovery in stock markets [1][5] - JPMorgan estimates that the average effective tariff rate in the US will decrease from 24% to 14%, resulting in a $300 billion "tax cut effect" [1] - Barclays has updated its outlook for the US economy, stating that a mild recession in the second half of 2025 is no longer the base case scenario [2][1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5900 to 6100, citing the positive impact of tariff reductions on corporate earnings [5] - Yardeni Research has also increased its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6000 to 6500 [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5892 points on May 14, reflecting a 4% increase compared to before the announcement of tariff reductions [5]