Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a ten-year high, indicating a strong upward trend in the A-share market, with significant gains in various constituent stocks and ETFs [1][4]. Market Performance - As of October 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 4010.73 points, marking a 0.21% increase [1]. - Notable stock performances include Aisen Co., Ltd. (up 11.90%), Tianxiao (up 10.09%), Fujian Cement (up 10.08%), and Fangda Carbon (up 10.08%) [1]. - The Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) has seen a 3.88% increase over the past week, ranking in the top quartile among comparable funds [1]. Liquidity and Trading Activity - The Shanghai Composite ETF recorded a turnover rate of 10.42% with a trading volume of 35.17 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the ETF over the past week was 51.42 million yuan [1]. Fund Growth and Inflows - The Shanghai Composite ETF has experienced a significant increase in scale, growing by 68.25 million yuan over the past three months, ranking in the second quartile among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF's share count increased by 27 million shares in the same period, also placing it in the second quartile among comparable funds [1][2]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Huaxi Securities suggests that the current A-share market is only in the mid-stage of an upward trend, with improving profitability and a strengthening outlook for the technology sector [4]. - CITIC Securities notes a stabilization in market sentiment despite a slowdown in incremental capital inflows, indicating limited adjustment space in the short term [4]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance market risk appetite and provide a clear growth path for A-shares through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [4]. ETF Specifics - The Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) closely tracks the Shanghai Composite Index, which is recognized as a barometer of the A-share market [5]. - The fund's contract will take effect on November 22, 2023, with a performance benchmark based on the Shanghai Composite Index return [6].

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B shows a significant increase, indicating continued economic recovery[1] - The seasonal comparison shows Index B standardized increased by 0.43, significantly above historical averages, suggesting ongoing domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment and real estate sectors are performing well, while consumer sector conditions remain relatively stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 1.5% month-on-month in September, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.3%[13] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year forecast recovery to -2.4% due to a low base effect[13] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of October 3, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of September 26, 2025, is 2.32%, while the actual yield is 1.88%, indicating a significant deviation[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B shows a significant increase, indicating continued economic recovery[1] - The seasonal comparison shows Index B standardized increased by 0.43, significantly above historical averages, suggesting ongoing domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment and real estate sectors are performing well, while consumer sector conditions remain relatively stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 1.5% month-on-month in September, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.3%[13] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year forecast recovery to -2.4% due to a low base effect[13] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of October 3, 2025[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of October 3 is 2.37%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,190.38[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating a recovery in economic growth[10] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.71, significantly above historical averages, suggesting a notable rebound in domestic economic momentum[10] - Key sectors such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed improvement this week, with all three areas performing well[10] Price Trends - Food prices decreased this week, while non-food prices remained stable; September CPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.3%[12] - The forecast for September PPI indicates a month-on-month decline of about -0.1%, with a year-on-year increase expected to reach -2.4% due to a low base effect[12] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions suggest a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of September 26, 2025[10] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of September 26 is 2.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,193.04[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A maintained a positive value, while Index B continued to rise, indicating ongoing economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.3, outperforming historical averages, suggesting improved domestic economic dynamics[1] - Consumer sector performance showed a recovery, while investment and real estate sectors remained stable[1] Price Tracking and Inflation - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in August, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.1%[2] - The CPI year-on-year is anticipated to decline to -0.3%[2] - The PPI is expected to rise by 0.4% month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year increase to -2.5%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are considered low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is viewed as high, indicating potential downward pressure on the index and upward pressure on the ten-year government bond yield[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 29, 2025, is 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,206.20[19]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index (000001) experienced a slight decline of 0.04% as of August 14, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Notable gainers included Youfang Technology (688159) up by 20.01%, Botao Biology (688767) up by 19.99%, and Nanmo Biology (688265) up by 15.72%, while major decliners included Dingyang Technology (688112) down by 11.22%, Guoguang Chain (605188) down by 9.98%, and Haili Co. (600619) down by 9.97% [1] - The Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) showed active trading with a turnover of 12.99% and a transaction volume of 40.58 million yuan, indicating a vibrant market [1] Group 2 - According to CICC's research report, the current market sentiment suggests that the ongoing rally is not yet over, likening it to an "enhanced version of 2013" with small-cap and growth styles prevailing [3] - The report anticipates that the overall market performance this year will be significantly better than in 2013, despite potential increased volatility due to valuation rises and new capital inflows [3] - Huaxi Securities supports the bullish trend, emphasizing that the influx of resident capital will be a key driver for a "slow bull" market, with expectations for A-shares to challenge 2024 highs in the second half of the year [4] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) closely tracks the Shanghai Composite Index, which is recognized as one of the oldest and most reputable indices in the A-share market, often referred to as the "barometer of the A-share market" [5] - The ETF is positioned as a direct investment vehicle for the index, allowing investors to gain exposure to the overall market performance [6]

Market Performance - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high and broke through the previous high of 3674 points, reaching a new high since December 17, 2021 [1] - As of 09:59 on August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.30%, with notable gains in stocks such as Zhongchuan Special Gas (up 20.01%) and Zhenlei Technology (up 13.92%) [1] - The Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) increased by 0.39%, marking its eighth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.28 yuan [1] ETF Performance - The Shanghai Composite ETF has seen a 2.00% increase over the past week, ranking in the top quarter among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's trading volume was 2.34% with a transaction value of 700.74 million yuan, and its average daily trading volume over the past year was 45.32 million yuan [1] - The ETF's scale grew by 80.80 million yuan over the past year, placing it in the top quarter of comparable funds [1] - The ETF's share count increased by 30 million shares in the past month, ranking in the second quarter among comparable funds [1] Fund Inflows - The latest net inflow for the Shanghai Composite ETF was 11.49 million yuan, with a total of 22.37 million yuan accumulated over the last 10 trading days [2] Policy Impact - Recent policies aimed at promoting consumption were announced, including a loan interest subsidy policy for service industry operators and personal consumers, indicating a supportive environment for market liquidity [5] - The margin financing balance for A-shares has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, indicating active market conditions, although it remains at half the peak levels seen in June 2015 [5] - Analysts expect the market to maintain a high-level fluctuation due to favorable liquidity and ongoing sector rotation opportunities during the reporting period [5] Fund Performance Comparison - The performance of the Huatai-PineBridge Shanghai Composite ETF since its inception on November 22, 2023, has been 15.72%, compared to a benchmark of 12.67% [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index's performance over the last five complete years (2020-2024) shows varying annual returns, with the most recent year yielding a 12.67% increase [7]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows a seasonal decline of 0.43, indicating a slowdown in domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment sector sentiment has improved, while consumption and real estate sectors have seen a decline in sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 2.80%, retail sales year-on-year growth is at 4.80%, and exports year-on-year growth is at 7.20%[3] Price Trends - Food prices have increased by approximately 1.0% month-on-month, while non-food prices have decreased by about -0.1%, leading to an overall CPI increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year CPI drop to -0.3%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.6%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of August 15, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 15, 2025, is 2.42%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,196.51[20]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating an improvement in economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Real estate sector sentiment improved, while investment sentiment declined, and consumption sentiment remained stable[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decrease by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices are projected to remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 20, 2025, is 2.23%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,098.20[20] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 4.00%[3] - Retail sales total for the month shows a year-on-year increase of 5.10%[3] - Exports for the month have a year-on-year growth of 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 7.90%[3]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show signs of decline, while consumer sector stability is maintained[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to decline to -0.4% year-on-year[2] - The PPI is projected to decrease by approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]