㴥間Ⲙ䘒䫟⼴ 㙨ꪍ徏蔦䍍㲾䪑Ⲙ⭀䒙┱⬥⮃⺛侊ㄌ ˋ耘㎼睘┩㳌䍳 GDP 掾駬 䌑 劓 傽 ⮕卥䉞 䑳ꂽ (-- *zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S 煝疵ⲙ槏⼍✲倁 낊ꯟ䳀獏 www.chinastock.com.cn 駩⯟煝疵䫟⼴ 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻 1 㴥間Ⲙ䘒䫟⼴ | ㎽1耘㎼ GDP ╭锢⮕뀉뀉潨銩 | | --- | | | | | 㵄ꮪGDP䫐䌑┧☳耘⩧ | | | | 㵄ꮪ楒嬠䫐䌑椚% | | | 楒嬠䬕Ⲙ% | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 24Q4 | 25Q1 | 25Q2 | 25Q3 | 24Q4 | 25Q1 | 25Q2 | 25Q3 | 24Q4 | 25Q1 | 25Q2 | 25Q3 | | GDP | 29.83 | 30.04 | 30.49 | 31.10 | 1.9 | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.3 | --- | --- | --- ...

01 中央经济工作会议精神解读 9:00-11:30 核心看点： 民银国际宏观 | 2026年海外宏观形势展望：政策均衡，风险收敛 10:00-11:00 核心看点： 权威解读中央经济工作会议精神，CMF发布最新宏 观经济专题报告，王一鸣、李稻葵、张晓晶、毛振 华、沈建光等顶级专家联袂研讨当前经济热点，深 度剖析政策方向、增长路径与改革重点，把脉2025- 2026年中国经济发展关键变量。一场高规格的思想 碰撞，不容错过！ 嘉宾： 刘凤良 | 中国人民大学经济学院教授、中国宏观经 济论坛（CMF）主要成员 邹静娴 | 中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副教 授、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）主要成员 王一鸣 | 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长 毛振华 | 中国人民大学经济研究所联席所长、教 授、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）联合创始人、联席 主席，中诚信国际首席经济学家 沈建光 | 京东集团副总裁、首席经济学家 张晓晶 | 国家金融与发展实验室主任 李稻葵 | 清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长 扫码预约 02 2026年美国、欧洲、日本等国家货币政策将继续向 中性利率靠拢，随着关税政策逐步落地，地缘政治 风险逐步收敛 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the transportation sector is facing significant profit impacts in 2025, with a general decline in ROE and net profit year-on-year. The market is currently pricing in a disconnection between stock prices and 2025 performance trends, highlighting a situation where profit and stock price bottoms are evident, but valuations appear high [3]. Transportation Sector Analysis - The report suggests that in 2026, the focus should be on identifying alpha within beta stocks, as different sub-industries will experience varying recovery paces. Key investment strategies include: 1. Domestic demand recovery is expected to precede external demand, with a low base in 2026 being a significant factor [3]. 2. Upstream sectors are anticipated to recover before downstream sectors, with initial signs of price and inventory recovery in Q3 2025 [3]. 3. Price increases are expected to precede volume growth, with supply constraints influencing the cyclical recovery across different sectors [3]. Macro Economic Outlook - The report provides a macroeconomic outlook for 2026, indicating that while U.S. broad market indices are relatively expensive, they are not at extreme levels. The Chinese stock market has potential for nominal growth recovery, which could lead to a re-evaluation of A-share valuations [3]. - The report also highlights that the current market breadth is healthy, suggesting a broad-based potential for upward movement in indices such as the S&P 500 and the CSI 300 [3].

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for economic work in 2026, emphasizing domestic demand and innovation-driven growth [1] - Central provinces like Hubei, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Shanxi are focusing on stimulating domestic demand and integrating technological and industrial innovation [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Demand Expansion - The conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026, with a strong focus on building a robust domestic market [1] - Provinces are making specific plans to expand consumption and investment, with Hubei aiming to lead new supply through new demand, while Henan focuses on leveraging local advantages to stimulate consumption [2] - Jiangxi is prioritizing the expansion of effective investment and consumption through targeted project planning and actions to boost consumer confidence [2] Group 2: Innovation and Industry Development - The conference emphasized the need for innovation-driven growth, with provinces like Hubei, Henan, and Hunan focusing on integrating technological advancements with industrial development [4][5] - Hubei plans to enhance the integration of technology and industry, while Henan aims to build a modern industrial system and develop new pillar industries [5][7] - Jiangxi is set to leverage its resource advantages to create a modern industrial system and a technology innovation center, focusing on key sectors like rare earth materials and traditional medicine [8] Group 3: Urban-Rural Integration and Regional Coordination - The conference called for coordinated development and urban-rural integration, with Hubei promoting a regional economic layout that emphasizes complementarity and high-quality development [9] - Hubei's strategy includes supporting key cities like Wuhan and Xiangyang to become regional centers, while also enhancing urban agglomeration and infrastructure connectivity [9][10] - Shanxi is focusing on high-quality county-level economic development and rural revitalization, aiming to improve urbanization and agricultural productivity [11][12]

Group 1: Company Insights - The report highlights Huafeng Technology (688629) as a key player in the connector industry, focusing on defense, communication, and industrial sectors, with significant advantages in high-speed backplane connectors [4] - The company has achieved mass production of 112G connectors and is leading in the 224G segment, with deep partnerships with Huawei and expansion into other major manufacturers and internet companies [4] - Revenue projections for Huafeng Technology are set at 2,364 million, 3,838 million, and 5,182 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 116.52%, 62.33%, and 35.03% [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The real estate industry is expected to continue bottoming out in 2026, with investment strategies focusing on "light assets" and "good companies," leaning towards defensive positions [5] - The report suggests a cautious outlook on policy expectations for 2026 compared to 2025, emphasizing high-margin, high-cash, and high-dividend stable targets [5] - The macroeconomic report indicates that China's high trade surplus is unsustainable in the long term, with policies aimed at promoting balanced trade [6]

Core Viewpoint - The growth of residents' current and expected income is a key driver for boosting consumption, which has been a long-standing call from the market [1][4]. Economic Policy and Income Growth - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy [2]. - The conference identified eight key tasks for economic work in 2026, including the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the formulation of plans to increase urban and rural residents' income [2][4]. - From 2020 to 2022, the growth rate of per capita disposable income in China showed significant fluctuations, with rates of 2.1%, 8.1%, and 2.9% respectively, while projections for 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025 are 6.1%, 5.1%, and 5.2% [2]. - The meeting highlighted ongoing challenges in China's economic development, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [2]. Employment and Income Distribution - Employment is a critical factor for income growth, with the conference proposing actions to stabilize and expand employment for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [4][5]. - The focus on increasing income includes measures to raise the minimum wage, with several regions planning to increase their minimum wage standards in 2025 [4]. - The conference's emphasis on a systematic approach to income growth suggests potential reforms in income distribution systems, personal income tax adjustments, and increased social security spending [4][6]. Social Security and Investment in Human Capital - Enhancing social security levels is expected to increase disposable income for urban and rural residents, with a notable increase in the basic pension standard from 55 yuan to 123 yuan per month [6]. - Future investment strategies are expected to shift towards "investing in people," focusing on education, employment, healthcare, and social security to drive high-quality economic development [7]. Price Stability and Economic Challenges - The persistent low levels of CPI and negative PPI growth are linked to supply-demand imbalances in the economy, with the conference recognizing the need for monetary policy to address these issues [9][10]. - The conference suggested that achieving reasonable price recovery may require coordinated monetary policy actions, including potential interest rate cuts [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The "China Economic Outlook" seminar highlighted the resilience and potential of China's economy amidst external uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic policies and structural optimization for achieving annual targets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The National Development and Reform Commission's Macro Economic Research Institute reported that China's economy has shown strong resilience and steady progress in 2023, maintaining stable growth despite rising external uncertainties [1]. - The seminar discussed the macroeconomic situation, fiscal policy orientation, technological innovation, regional economic development, foreign trade, and future policy focus, with experts agreeing that the 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session has provided a blueprint for high-quality economic development [2][6]. Group 2: New Analytical Platform - The "China Macroeconomic Monitoring, Forecasting, and Policy Evaluation Analysis Platform" was launched to provide dynamic monitoring, trend forecasting, and policy effect evaluation, combining effective market mechanisms with proactive government involvement [4]. - The platform integrates data collection, modeling algorithms, and visualization features, marking a significant step towards intelligent macroeconomic analysis [4]. Group 3: Future Economic Strategy - Experts emphasized the need for a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international trade, advocating for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize market expectations and social confidence [6]. - There is a call to continue promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrading, optimizing regional economic layouts, and expanding high-level openness to solidify the recovery of the domestic economy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rebound in economic indicators for October, driven by the implementation of new policy financial tools, suggesting a recovery in the economy after a challenging period in July and August [1][4][15]. Economic Indicators - The October EPMI (Emerging Purchasing Managers Index) rose sharply by 7.3 points to 59.7, indicating strong seasonal characteristics typical of autumn [4][22]. - The BCI (Business Confidence Index) increased by 0.9 points to 52.0, confirming a positive trend in economic performance from September to October [1][4]. Sales and Profit Expectations - Sales and profit indices showed a slight pullback in October but remained at the second-highest level since May, indicating sustained autumn demand [6][8]. - The sales forecast index for October was 59.7, down from 60.9, while the profit forecast index was 47.4, down from 48.3, reflecting a weaker outlook compared to previous months [6][8]. Investment and Employment Outlook - Investment and employment forward-looking indices reached their highest levels of the year, attributed to the positive impact of policy financial tools on corporate expectations [2][8]. - As of October 17, new policy financial tools had injected 189.35 billion yuan, expected to stimulate a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan [2][8]. Financing Environment - The corporate financing environment index saw a significant increase, indicating improved credit conditions due to policy financial tools being used to supplement project capital [11]. - The October financing environment index was 52.4, surpassing the previous value of 47.6, with only three months in the year exceeding 50 [11]. Price Expectations - Price indices for intermediate and consumer goods showed varying degrees of decline, influenced by commodity price fluctuations [12]. - The consumer price forecast index for October was 44.7, down from 47.9, while the intermediate goods price forecast index was 33.4, down from 38.0, indicating uncertainty in future price trends [12]. Policy Implications - The rebound in EPMI and BCI data suggests that the economy is sensitive to investment, with the primary challenge for macroeconomic policy being the expansion of demand rather than merely lowering interest rates [15]. - If construction projects are prioritized in 2026, there is a high probability of a gradual recovery in nominal growth throughout the year, potentially leading to a second phase of a profit-driven bull market [15].

Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI for January to September showed a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time in 19 months that it returned to above 1% [1] Food Prices - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year in September, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Cumulative food price change for the first nine months was -1.8%, while non-food items saw a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - Significant declines in specific food items included pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), eggs (-13.5%), and fresh fruits (-4.2%) in September [2] Gold Prices - In contrast, gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - International gold prices increased from approximately $3,500 per ounce at the beginning of September to nearly $3,800 per ounce by the end of the month [3] - Gold investment demand remained strong, with sales of gold bars and coins experiencing a 44% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [3][4] Market Demand and Economic Policy - The low CPI indicates a persistent issue of oversupply in the macroeconomic landscape, necessitating increased counter-cyclical policy measures [2][5] - The government aims for a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004 [5] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence [5][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 after five consecutive meetings without changes [1] - The Bank of England decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations, as inflation remains above target and the labor market shows signs of weakness [1] - In the U.S. Senate, both a short-term spending bill proposed by Republicans and a competing bill drafted by Democrats failed to pass, risking a government shutdown if a new funding measure is not approved by October 1 [1] Group 2 - Australia, Canada, and the UK officially recognized the State of Palestine on September 21 [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of cooperation between China and the U.S. during a meeting with a U.S. congressional delegation, advocating for mutual respect and constructive dialogue [2] - The Chinese government announced 19 measures to expand service consumption, including a "service consumption season" and extended operating hours for popular cultural and tourist venues [2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration of China released guidelines for the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, focusing on maintaining clinical stability and quality [2] Group 3 - Economic cycle expert Lars Tvede discussed the profound impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the economy and society, highlighting the efficiency of generative AI and reasoning models in processing information [3] - Tvede noted that the energy demands of AI are increasing, with the energy consumption for processing prompts rising to 50 times that of a year ago, emphasizing the need for diverse hardware solutions [3] - The current statistical systems fail to capture the true economic value generated by AI investments, which are nearing 1% of U.S. GDP, while the value created may be tenfold that amount [3] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [4] - Eurozone industrial production increased by 1.8% year-on-year in July, matching expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.3%, slightly below the forecast of 0.4% [4] Group 5 - The UK's ILO unemployment rate for the three months ending in July was reported at 4.7%, with annual wage growth (excluding bonuses) slowing from 5.0% to 4.8% [5] - Japan's core CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year as of August, marking the lowest increase in nine months, indicating some relief for households facing rising living costs [5]