Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash has started to converge this week, and the basis convergence trading may continue. The decline of futures prices is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply side shows no significant changes, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, indicating obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The industry's overall profit is poor and continues to decline, and the subsequent resumption of production may further weaken. The demand side is currently not optimistic, with real - estate data in May showing a significant decline, and demand is expected to further weaken. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and maintain a short - selling mindset on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1161 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1015 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1569278 lots, up 84429 lots; glass main contract position is 1472003 lots, up 30129 lots. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 307826, down 34580; glass top 20 net position is - 245913, up 29274. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3863 tons, down 150 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged. Soda ash September - January contract spread is 7 yuan, down 5 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 51 yuan, up 4 yuan. Soda ash basis is 46 yuan, up 9 yuan; glass basis is 41 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1207 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1285 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Shahe glass sheets are 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 86.46%, up 1.56 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, down 0.08 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, down 0.02 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 223, down 1. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 175.59 million tons, up 2.92 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6988.7 million heavy boxes, up 20.2 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 18385.14 million square meters, up 2737.29 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Chen Maobo said that the adjustment range of the Hong Kong property market at the current level is not large. In the first quarter, there were 527 global luxury home transactions, with 42 in Hong Kong ranking sixth. It is expected that luxury home transactions in Hong Kong will increase in 2025, and investors are considering re - entering the market. The number of second - hand village house sales contract registrations in the New Territories of Hong Kong in the first 5 months was about 602, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. Vanke extended the term of a 1.217 billion yuan loan from Ping An Bank for 2 years. Three residential - related land parcels in Chengdu were sold for 1.089 billion yuan. Three residential land parcels in Hangzhou were sold at the reserve price with a total transaction amount of 1.167 billion yuan. Hainan plans to update 1708 old elevators in residential communities this year. A foreclosed property in Shanghai was sold for over 100 million yuan, which insiders considered a "bargain price". The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, visited Xiongan New Area and emphasized using new technologies to build "good houses" [2]. Macro - level - As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [2]. Soda Ash Analysis - In terms of supply, the domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, and production has risen, but the overall growth rate has slowed down. The market supply remains abundant, and domestic soda ash profits have declined but are still positive. It is expected that the production growth rate of soda ash will further slow down, and subsequent cold repairs are likely to increase. In terms of demand, there is no significant change in glass production lines, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, showing obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The demand for photovoltaic glass shows signs of decline, which is expected to continue, resulting in negative feedback on the demand for soda ash. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory has increased, mainly due to increased production, and is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. Glass Analysis - On the supply side, there are no obvious changes in glass production lines, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, indicating obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The industry's overall profit is poor and continues to decline, and the subsequent resumption of production may further weaken. Before the profit of the coal - based production method turns negative, there will be no significant changes in the supply side. On the demand side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, with real - estate data in May showing a significant decline, and demand is expected to further weaken. Downstream deep - processing orders have declined, and procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The increase in inventory of automotive glass factories is difficult to offset the weak demand related to real - estate, and the demand for photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure. This week, the basis remains within the normal range, and subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations. It is expected that the rebound height and strength will be relatively limited [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to remain abundant, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis spread has started to normalize, and the basis spread trading may continue. Futures decline is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies [2]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, while in the medium - to long - term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited, and market trading will be more about policy expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Soda Ash**: The closing price of the main contract is 1,173 yuan/ton, with no change; the position of the main contract is 1,484,849 lots, an increase of 16,673 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 269,714 lots, a decrease of 25,820 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 4,013 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the September - January contract spread is 11 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis spread is 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan [2]. - **Glass**: The closing price of the main contract is 1,007 yuan/ton, with no change; the position of the main contract is 1,441,874 lots, a decrease of 11,615 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 247,827 lots, a decrease of 33,493 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, with no change; the September - January contract spread is - 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the basis spread is 54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1,205 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of East China light soda ash is 1,285 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1,225 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,052 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1,070 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Soda Ash**: The plant operating rate is 86.46%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points; enterprise inventory is 175.59 tons, an increase of 2.92 tons [2]. - **Glass**: The operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, a decrease of 0.02 million tons; the number of in - production production lines is 223, a decrease of 1; enterprise inventory is 6,988.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, an increase of 20.2 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new construction area of real estate is 23,183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5,347.77 million square meters; the cumulative value of completed area of real estate is 18,385.14 million square meters, an increase of 2,737.29 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The central bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [2]. - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9,662.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; the stamp duty revenue was 178.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [2]. - From January to May, the actual use of foreign capital in the country was 358.19 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% [2]. - The Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau issued the "Measures for the Market Risk Management of Commercial Banks" to refine market risk management requirements [2]. - The Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau allows money brokerage companies to provide matching services for market transactions such as currency, bonds, foreign exchange, and gold among financial institutions [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the futures price of soda ash rose by 1.47%, and the futures price of glass rose by 3.18%. The soda ash futures rebounded in the first half - week driven by glass, then slightly declined in the second half - week due to concerns about increased production and reduced production of photovoltaic glass. The glass futures stabilized slightly in the first half - week and rebounded in the second half - week due to short - covering and market expectations for the meeting [6]. - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain loose, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The futures decline is expected to slow down next week. For glass, the supply is at the bottom and will not change significantly before the profit of coal - based production method turns negative. The demand is expected to weaken further, and the rebound height and strength will be limited [6]. - It is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1120 - 1200 with stop - losses at 1100 - 1220, and operate the FG2509 contract in the range of 960 - 1060 with stop - losses at 930 - 1080 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures rose 1.47% and glass futures rose 3.18%. Soda ash futures rebounded first and then declined, while glass futures stabilized first and then rebounded [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash supply is loose, demand is shrinking, and prices are under pressure. Glass supply is at the bottom, and demand is expected to weaken [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Trade SA2509 in the 1120 - 1200 range with stop - losses at 1100 - 1220, and operate FG2509 in the 960 - 1060 range with stop - losses at 930 - 1080 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Soda ash futures prices rose, and glass futures prices fell this week [8]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: The SA 9 - 1 and FG 9 - 1 spreads are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [12][14]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash fell, and the basis continued to flatten. The spot price of glass rose less than the futures price, and the basis weakened. The soda ash - glass spread continued to weaken [17][22][27]. - **Specific Data**: As of June 20, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the soda ash basis was 31 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1052 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the glass basis was 45 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash spread was 166 yuan/ton [20][25][29]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down. As of June 20, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 86.35%, a 1.44% increase, and the weekly production was 75.37 tons, a 1.83% increase [30][33]. - **Corporate Profits**: Soda ash corporate profits declined, while glass corporate profits increased. The upstream profits of the industry are shifting downstream [35]. - **Glass Production**: The number of glass production lines did not change significantly, and the overall production remained at a low level. As of June 20, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 223 in operation, and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 109.35 tons, a 0.21% increase, and it is expected to remain low next week [42][44]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The operating rate of domestic photovoltaic glass remained flat, the capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume declined, and it is expected to continue to decline next week [46]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash corporate inventories increased due to increased production, and glass corporate inventories also increased, with slow de - stocking [50][54]. - **Downstream Demand**: The number of deep - processing orders for domestic glass decreased slightly, remaining at a historical low. Demand is expected to recover with the arrival of summer heat [56].

维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明显。行业整体利润不佳，后续复产力度恐继续下行。对供给端来说由于当下 处于底部，煤制法利润未转负之前，不会有太大变化。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月二手房价格继续 免责声明 下行，需求将进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差回归有所建树，后续将继续主导交易，但是反弹高度 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 和力度均有限。操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思维。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1176 | 环比 数据指标 6 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 998 | 环比 18 | | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, it is expected that this week's production will remain flat, demand will contract, and prices will face pressure. The basis of soda ash has started to deviate significantly, and basis - regression trading may emerge. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, in the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, while in the medium - to long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is maintained. The basis regression has made some progress and will continue to dominate trading, but the height and strength of the rebound are limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1170 yuan/ton, up 11 from the previous day; glass main contract closing price: 980 yuan/ton, up 6 [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 190 yuan/ton, up 5; soda ash main contract open interest: 1518131 lots, down 258842; glass main contract open interest: 1458550 lots, down 13809 [2]. - Soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread: 11, up 4; glass 9 - 1 contract spread: - 58, unchanged; soda ash basis: 51 yuan/ton, up 25; glass basis: 70 yuan/ton, up 6 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1210 yuan/ton, up 10; Central China heavy soda ash: 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda ash: 1285 yuan/ton, down 20; Central China light soda ash: 1240 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1044 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.9%, up 4.14; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.42%, down 0.11 [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.56 million tons/year, down 0.12; glass in - production line number: 224, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 170.95 million tons, up 2.32; glass enterprise inventory: 6968.5 million heavy boxes, down 6.9 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 17835.84 million square meters, up 4839.38; cumulative real estate completion area: 15647.85 million square meters, up 2587.58 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Summer Davos Forum will be held in Tianjin; China announces the evacuation of Chinese citizens from Iran and Israel; domestic refined oil prices are raised; in May, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks; China's new - generation manned spacecraft "Mengzhou" zero - height escape flight test was successful; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the so - called "EU cancellation of China - EU high - level economic dialogue"; Liu Qiangdong confirmed JD.com's entry into the hotel and tourism industry; JD.com hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally [2]. 3.6 Macro - level Information - At the end of May, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, M1 increased by 2.3% year - on - year; at the end of May 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year - on - year; the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16 with a term of 6 months [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 974 | 1159 | -15 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | -6 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) 1577957 | 185 | -9 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 31035 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) -258842 | 1472359 | 23675 纯碱前20名净持仓 | | -10586 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 6565 | -246268 | -11225 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | | -77 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 7 | -2 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -58 | 3 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 51 | 25 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 70 | 6 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1210 | 10 华中重碱(日,元/吨) ...

| 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | 1174 194 | 18 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 980 1546922 | 4 -59463 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 1448684 | 22530 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -248256 | 36120 | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | | -235043 | -20310 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 6642 | -1062 | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 3 | -7 | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | | -59 | 0 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 54 | -11 | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | | 68 | 1 | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | | 1210 | -30 华中重碱(日,元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 12 - May 18), treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the unexpected progress of China - US trade negotiations and marginal convergence of the capital market. Looking ahead to next week, the capital market is expected to see a slight increase in interest rates during the tax period, and the market sentiment will remain weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process will be tortuous, and there is a possibility of flattening in the short - term [13][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. On Monday, due to the unexpected statement of China - US trade negotiations, futures opened lower, then strengthened slightly and finally weakened significantly. On Tuesday, they turned from weak to strong. On Wednesday, they declined slightly. On Thursday, long - term futures performed strongly. On Friday, the curve flattened bearishly in the morning and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. As of May 16, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main continuous contracts were 102.368, 105.695, 108.460, and 118.880 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.012, +0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The capital market will be the focus. During the tax period, the capital market is expected to be slightly tighter, and the market sentiment will be weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process is tortuous, and there may be a slight flattening in the short - term. The capital interest rate is expected to rise slightly during the tax period, and the market's concern about the capital market persists [15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 77 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 707.974 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields increased. As of May 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.88% respectively, up 4.73, 6.80, 4.60, and 4.25 bp from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests decreased [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy decreased significantly. The basis of each variety is expected to gradually return to a normal level [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads of each variety generally widened in the opposite direction and are expected to gradually converge to 0 in the oscillation. However, the time for deploying this strategy is limited [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. As of May 16, capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all increased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank repurchase increased [51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of May 9, the US dollar index increased by 0.56% to 100.9828, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 bp to 4.43%. The spread between China and the US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 275 bp [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, with weak market sentiment, short - term defense is recommended. Aggressive investors can consider buying long - term varieties on dips. In the long - term, the curve is expected to steepen, but the process is tortuous. The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy has decreased significantly, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. The strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be tried, with a quick - in - quick - out approach [2][65]