瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.06.20 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货上涨1.47%，玻璃期货上涨3.18%，本周纯碱期货反弹，上半周纯碱期货在玻 璃带动下反弹，后续由于市场开始对于纯碱增产的担忧，以及光伏玻璃的减产，纯碱开始在下半周小幅 回落，本周玻璃期货上半周稍微企稳，下半周开始由于空头减仓，以及市场对于会议的预期，开启了反 弹势头。 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端来看本周国内纯碱开工率上涨，纯碱产量上涨，但整体上涨速度趋缓，市 场供应依旧宽松，本周国内纯碱利润下滑，但目前利润依旧为正，由此反馈出下周纯碱产量增速将进一 步放缓，后续冷修有望增加，需求端玻璃产线无太大变化，整体产量小幅增加，维持在底部，刚需生产 迹象明显。光伏玻璃整体出现需求下滑迹象，预计下周继续下滑，对于纯碱来说需求出现负反馈。本周 国内纯碱企业库存增加，主要产量增加导致，预计下周继 ...

维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明显。行业整体利润不佳，后续复产力度恐继续下行。对供给端来说由于当下 处于底部，煤制法利润未转负之前，不会有太大变化。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月二手房价格继续 免责声明 下行，需求将进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差回归有所建树，后续将继续主导交易，但是反弹高度 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 和力度均有限。操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思维。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1176 | 环比 数据指标 6 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 998 | 环比 18 | | --- | --- ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-18 需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月二手房价格继续下行，需求将进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购 以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差回 归有所建树，后续将继续主导交易，但是反弹高度和力度均有限。操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维 持逢高空思维。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1170 | 环比 数据指标 11 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 980 | 环比 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 974 | 1159 | -15 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | -6 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) 1577957 | 185 | -9 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 31035 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) -258842 | 1472359 | 23675 纯碱前20名净持仓 | | -10586 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 6565 | -246268 | -11225 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | | -77 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 7 | -2 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -58 | 3 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 51 | 25 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 70 | 6 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1210 | 10 华中重碱(日,元/吨) ...

| 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | 1174 194 | 18 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 980 1546922 | 4 -59463 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 1448684 | 22530 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -248256 | 36120 | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | | -235043 | -20310 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 6642 | -1062 | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 3 | -7 | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | | -59 | 0 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 54 | -11 | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | | 68 | 1 | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | | 1210 | -30 华中重碱(日,元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 12 - May 18), treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the unexpected progress of China - US trade negotiations and marginal convergence of the capital market. Looking ahead to next week, the capital market is expected to see a slight increase in interest rates during the tax period, and the market sentiment will remain weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process will be tortuous, and there is a possibility of flattening in the short - term [13][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. On Monday, due to the unexpected statement of China - US trade negotiations, futures opened lower, then strengthened slightly and finally weakened significantly. On Tuesday, they turned from weak to strong. On Wednesday, they declined slightly. On Thursday, long - term futures performed strongly. On Friday, the curve flattened bearishly in the morning and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. As of May 16, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main continuous contracts were 102.368, 105.695, 108.460, and 118.880 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.012, +0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The capital market will be the focus. During the tax period, the capital market is expected to be slightly tighter, and the market sentiment will be weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process is tortuous, and there may be a slight flattening in the short - term. The capital interest rate is expected to rise slightly during the tax period, and the market's concern about the capital market persists [15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 77 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 707.974 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields increased. As of May 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.88% respectively, up 4.73, 6.80, 4.60, and 4.25 bp from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests decreased [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy decreased significantly. The basis of each variety is expected to gradually return to a normal level [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads of each variety generally widened in the opposite direction and are expected to gradually converge to 0 in the oscillation. However, the time for deploying this strategy is limited [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. As of May 16, capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all increased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank repurchase increased [51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of May 9, the US dollar index increased by 0.56% to 100.9828, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 bp to 4.43%. The spread between China and the US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 275 bp [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, with weak market sentiment, short - term defense is recommended. Aggressive investors can consider buying long - term varieties on dips. In the long - term, the curve is expected to steepen, but the process is tortuous. The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy has decreased significantly, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. The strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be tried, with a quick - in - quick - out approach [2][65]