Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to remain abundant, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis spread has started to normalize, and the basis spread trading may continue. Futures decline is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies [2]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, while in the medium - to long - term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited, and market trading will be more about policy expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Soda Ash**: The closing price of the main contract is 1,173 yuan/ton, with no change; the position of the main contract is 1,484,849 lots, an increase of 16,673 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 269,714 lots, a decrease of 25,820 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 4,013 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the September - January contract spread is 11 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis spread is 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan [2]. - **Glass**: The closing price of the main contract is 1,007 yuan/ton, with no change; the position of the main contract is 1,441,874 lots, a decrease of 11,615 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 247,827 lots, a decrease of 33,493 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, with no change; the September - January contract spread is - 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the basis spread is 54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1,205 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of East China light soda ash is 1,285 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1,225 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,052 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1,070 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Soda Ash**: The plant operating rate is 86.46%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points; enterprise inventory is 175.59 tons, an increase of 2.92 tons [2]. - **Glass**: The operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, a decrease of 0.02 million tons; the number of in - production production lines is 223, a decrease of 1; enterprise inventory is 6,988.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, an increase of 20.2 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new construction area of real estate is 23,183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5,347.77 million square meters; the cumulative value of completed area of real estate is 18,385.14 million square meters, an increase of 2,737.29 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The central bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [2]. - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9,662.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; the stamp duty revenue was 178.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [2]. - From January to May, the actual use of foreign capital in the country was 358.19 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% [2]. - The Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau issued the "Measures for the Market Risk Management of Commercial Banks" to refine market risk management requirements [2]. - The Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau allows money brokerage companies to provide matching services for market transactions such as currency, bonds, foreign exchange, and gold among financial institutions [2].

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-18 需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月二手房价格继续下行，需求将进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购 以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差回 归有所建树，后续将继续主导交易，但是反弹高度和力度均有限。操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维 持逢高空思维。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1170 | 环比 数据指标 11 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 980 | 环比 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the operation is recommended to be mainly short - selling the main contract. For glass, it is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price was 1345 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; glass main contract closing price was 1046 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Soda ash and glass price difference was 299 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest was 1,187,203 lots, down 162,059 lots; glass main contract open interest was 1,409,663 lots, down 53,826 lots [2] - Soda ash top 20 net position was - 168,360 lots, up 70,400 lots; glass top 20 net position was - 154,478 lots, up 631 lots [2] - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts were 2,914 tons, down 309 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts were 4,284 tons, up 4,284 tons [2] - Soda ash September - January contract spread was 16 yuan, up 7 yuan; glass September - January contract spread was - 52 yuan, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - East China light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Shahe glass sheets were 1,100 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; Central China glass sheets were 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Soda ash basis was - 20 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; glass basis was 54 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate was 87.74%, down 0.93 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate was 75.24%, down 0.61 percentage points [2] - Glass in - production capacity was 15.52 million tons/year, down 0.26 million tons; glass in - production production lines were 222, down 3 [2] - Soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.7007 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; glass enterprise inventory was 675,600 heavy boxes, up 257,100 heavy boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area was 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area was 13,060.27 million square meters, up 4,296.27 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - Central Settlement Company waived account opening fees for overseas central bank - type institutions [2] - On May 13, domestic gold stores lowered the price of pure gold jewelry below 1,000 yuan [2] - MSCI China flagship index adjustment: Enlight Media, Xin Yuan Co., Ltd., and Baili Tianheng were included [2] - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff rates on the United States starting from 12:01 on May 14 [2] - Five departments interviewed food delivery platforms such as JD, Meituan, and Ele.me, requiring fair and orderly competition [2] - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Brazil signed a financial strategic cooperation memorandum of understanding and renewed the bilateral local currency swap agreement [2] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - For soda ash, the supply decreased slightly due to Tangshan Sanyou's reduced operation. Downstream demand was lukewarm, with more wait - and - see sentiment and mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. High - price resistance led to a slight reduction in inventory [2] - For glass, the overall profit increased slightly due to the decline in raw material costs, and the output remained stable. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and enterprise inventory increased [2]