2025 年 08 月 26 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 MEG：趋势偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 一位经纪人表示："过去一周 PX 价格一直波动，因此 25 日的走势相对稳定。 与此同时，PX 的涨幅受到中国 PX 和 PTA 期货疲软的限制，市场参与者称三房巷最近启动了新的 PTA 产能。8 月 25 日，中国三房巷公司消息人士证实，该公司于 8 月 23 日至 24 日将其新的 150 万吨/年 PTA 线 2 号线上线。消息人士补充说，由于两条生产线现已投入运营，生产商的运行量约为总产能的 95%。该位于 江苏的工厂由两条 PTA 生产线组成，每条生产线的铭牌产能为 150 万吨/年。 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6970 | 4862 | 4509 | 6596 | 492.9 | | 涨跌 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [6] - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong, focus on the 9-1/10-1 calendar spread [7] - MEG: Trend is strong, exit the 9-1 reverse calendar spread [7] 2) Core Views - PX follows the rise of PTA due to unexpected PTA plant shutdowns and the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, forming a positive feedback loop and showing a short - term strong trend [6] - PTA's 8 - 9 month balance sheet shows significant inventory drawdown due to an unexpected plant shutdown, and with the increase in polyester plant operation rate, it will enter a tight - balance pattern, so 9-1/10-1 calendar spreads are favorable [7] - MEG has a tight spot supply with high basis, and low recent arrivals benefit the near - month contracts, but there are clear upside pressures from future new capacity, so no short - term chasing of long positions [7] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 21st, the price of PX increased significantly, with two 10 - month Asian spot transactions at 854 and 855, and two 11 - month Asian spot transactions at 849 and 851. The estimated price of PX on the 21st was 854 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars from the 20th [3] - **PTA**: A 250 - million - ton PTA plant in South China shut down for maintenance on the 21st, and another 250 - million - ton plant is expected to shut down around August 23rd for over a month. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 71.6%, and the operating rate was around 77.4% [3] - **MEG**: As of August 21st, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.16% (up 6.77% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.25% (up 0.78% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: There were no changes in the whole polyester plants this week, but the local plant loads increased, and the overall polyester load in mainland China was around 90% as of Thursday. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn recovered to around 71% [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6958 | 4860 | 4473 | 6614 | 490.9 | | Change | 6844 | 82 | - 4 | 110 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | 1.67% | 1.72% | - 0.09% | 1.69% | 1.68% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 162 | - 14 | - 54 | - 42 | - 6.2 | | Month Spread (Change) | 74 | 42 | - 4 | 20 | 0.7 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 852.33 dollars/ton | 4830 yuan/ton | 4518 yuan/ton | 584.5 dollars/ton | 68.12 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | 14.33 | 144 | 16 | 9 | 0.57 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 255.5 | 197.31 | 175.93 | 27.32 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 2.5 | - 10.67 | 43.46 | 4.44 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] Sales Data - On the 21st, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair, with an average sales rate of around 70% by 3:30 pm [5] - On the 21st, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales rate of 89% by 3:00 pm [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Multiple units have unexpectedly reduced their loads, so PX is expected to strengthen in the short - term. A long PX and short PTA strategy is recommended. With supply decreasing and demand increasing, PX is in a de - stocking pattern. The PX - naphtha spread is weak as raw material prices strengthen [6]. - PTA: Polyester staple fiber plans to cut production in July, increasing the long - term supply - demand pressure on PTA. However, the spot basis for the near - month contract remains high, so a long - near and short - far (positive spread) strategy is advisable. A long PX and short PTA strategy is also recommended. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it has entered a stock - building pattern this week [6][7]. - MEG: Iranian ethylene glycol units have stopped production, so MEG is expected to be in a short - term volatile and strengthening trend. Consider reducing the position of long PTA and short MEG. The profit of ethylene glycol units has weakened this week but is still at a high level, and the unit operating rate will significantly increase. Attention should be paid to the operating and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol units due to the Israel - Iran conflict [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On June 16, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6758, down 0.3% from the previous day; PTA main contract closed at 4766, down 0.3%; MEG main contract closed at 4374, up 0.9%; PF main contract closed at 6510, down 0.3%; SC main contract closed at 3874, up 1.2% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread on June 16 was 146, a daily change of - 2; PTA (9 - 1) was 112, a daily change of 6; MEG (9 - 1) was - 1, a daily change of - 3; PF(7 - 8) was 84, a daily change of 34; PX - EB07 was - 629, a daily change of 115 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread on June 16 was 373, a daily change of - 2; PTA09 - MEG09 was 392, a daily change of - 56; PTA07 - PF07 was - 1638, a daily change of - 50; PF07盘面加工费 was 904, a daily change of 37; PTA09 - LU09 was 937, a daily change of - 60 [2]. - **Basis and Others**: The PX basis on June 16 was 307, a daily change of 22; PTA basis was 220; MEG basis was 86, a daily change of 1; PF basis was - 10, a daily change of - 60; PX - naphtha spread was 234. The PTA warehouse receipts were 84853, a daily change of - 1002; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 6232, a daily change of - 282; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 5464; PX warehouse receipts were 0, a daily change of - 5; SC warehouse receipts were 4029000 [2]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On June 17, the PX price increased significantly. The estimated price of PX was 884 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars from June 16. China's PX supply has tightened, and the spot price has risen. As of June 13, China's PX operating rate was estimated at 85.8%, lower than the previous week's 87%. South Korea's May PX exports decreased by 26% month - on - month to 321,956 tons due to domestic production decline, and exports to China decreased by about 22% to 302,433 tons [4][5]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Shaanxi is restarting, and it is expected to produce products tomorrow. From June 16 to June 22, the planned arrivals at major ports are about 100,000 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On June 17, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of about 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 56% by 3:00 pm [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options in China aims to establish a transparent and efficient pricing mechanism, enhancing risk management capabilities within the aluminum industry and promoting sustainable development [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The first day of trading for the main contract AD2511 saw an opening price of 19,400 CNY/ton and a closing price of 19,190 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 825 CNY/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 CNY/ton [3]. - A total of 57,300 contracts were traded, amounting to 11.011 billion CNY, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Price Expectations - Analysts noted that the initial high opening was due to the low benchmark price set by the exchange, leading to a narrow trading range and a back structure in the market, indicating a consensus among investors regarding a bearish outlook for future prices [3]. - The expected price range for the AD2511 contract is projected to be between 18,000 CNY/ton and 19,700 CNY/ton, influenced by supply pressures and cost support [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The aluminum alloy production capacity is anticipated to continue increasing, with demand primarily driven by the automotive sector, likely resulting in a supply surplus [3]. - The current spot price for ADC12 is estimated to be between 19,500 CNY/ton and 20,000 CNY/ton, with production costs around 20,086 CNY/ton, suggesting potential buying opportunities at lower prices [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for various commodities and futures in terms of "trend strength," which ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For example, asphalt and methanol have a trend strength of 1 (bullish), while paper pulp has a trend strength of -1 (bearish), and many other commodities have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [28][44][54]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and price trends of multiple energy - chemical commodities. It suggests different trading strategies for each commodity, such as anti - arbitrage for p - xylene and PTA, and short - term trading decisions like not chasing short positions for LLDPE and PVC. The market is influenced by factors including supply - demand relationships, cost changes, geopolitical events, and policy impacts [2][9][31]. 3. Summary by Commodity P - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Fundamentals**: P - xylene prices declined, with a 1.4% daily drop on June 3, 2025. PTA supply increased due to the restart of a 300 - million - ton device, while demand decreased as polyester production was cut. MEG had a 1.0% daily price drop, and port inventory decreased by 6.6 million tons [4][6][7]. - **Market Views**: P - xylene faces negative feedback from the polyester industry, and month - spread anti - arbitrage is recommended. PTA's supply - demand imbalance leads to a shift from destocking to stockpiling, also suggesting anti - arbitrage. For MEG, the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG should be exited at high prices [9]. Rubber - **Fundamentals**: Rubber futures' trading volume decreased, and the number of short positions among the top 20 members declined. The inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.5 million tons, a 0.80% decline [12][13]. - **Market Views**: Rubber is expected to trade in a range, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [11]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The price of butadiene, a raw material for synthetic rubber, decreased, and the inventory of butadiene production enterprises and ports increased. The supply of cis - polybutadiene rubber may decrease slightly, and demand remains high, but inventory is at a high level [15][18]. - **Market Views**: Synthetic rubber is at a low valuation and may rebound slightly in the short - term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [15]. Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: Asphalt futures prices increased, and the inventory of sample factories and social warehouses decreased. The price of crude oil rebounded [19][29]. - **Market Views**: Asphalt is expected to have short - term fluctuations, with a slightly bullish trend strength of 1 [19]. LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: LLDPE market prices declined slightly, and the supply pressure is high due to planned new capacity. Demand is weak as the agricultural film season is off - peak, and packaging film demand is average [30][31]. - **Market Views**: Short - term short - chasing is not recommended, and there may be a phased rebound, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [30]. PP - **Fundamentals**: PP market prices decreased slightly, and the cost support from upstream petrochemical factories weakened. Downstream demand was weak [35][36]. - **Market Views**: PP prices are expected to be stable with limited movement, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. In June, maintenance and alumina replenishment can support the market, but the sustainability of stockpiling is crucial [38][39][40]. - **Market Views**: Caustic soda has a strong current situation but weak expectations, and cost changes should be monitored, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [38]. Pulp - **Fundamentals**: Pulp futures prices decreased, and the market is in a weak and stable state. Port inventory is high, and downstream demand is weak [44][45]. - **Market Views**: Pulp is expected to trade weakly, with a bearish trend strength of - 1 [43]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of glass raw sheets was stable, and market sentiment was bearish due to increased supply and a weakening futures market [48]. - **Market Views**: Glass is expected to be stable, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [47]. Methanol - **Fundamentals**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the spot market showed a mixed trend. Port inventory increased, and the market trading atmosphere improved [51][53]. - **Market Views**: Methanol is expected to rebound from a low level in the short - term, with a slightly bullish trend strength of 1 [51]. Urea - **Fundamentals**: Urea futures prices decreased slightly, and enterprise inventory increased. The supply is high, and the export policy may have a certain impact on the market [56]. - **Market Views**: Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [55]. Styrene - **Fundamentals**: Styrene prices were supported by the increase in crude oil prices during the Dragon Boat Festival. The downstream inventory structure improved, but high profits stimulated supply, and port inventory increased [59]. - **Market Views**: Styrene is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [59]. Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash market prices decreased slightly, and production increased slightly. Downstream demand was weak, with mainly rigid - demand restocking [65]. - **Market Views**: Soda ash is expected to be stable in the short - term, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [63]. LPG - **Fundamentals**: LPG futures prices increased, and the expected price of Saudi CP increased. The operating rate of PDH devices increased slightly [70][76]. - **Market Views**: LPG is affected by geopolitical factors, and the cost is relatively strong, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [68]. PVC - **Fundamentals**: PVC prices declined slightly, and the supply is expected to increase, while demand has not improved. The high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change [81][82]. - **Market Views**: Short - term short - chasing is not recommended, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [80]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: Fuel oil prices rebounded following crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices increased significantly. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the spot market narrowed [85]. - **Market Views**: Fuel oil is expected to have increased short - term fluctuations, and low - sulfur fuel oil is also volatile, both with a neutral trend strength of 0 [85]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The container shipping index (European line) futures showed a mixed trend, and freight rates increased slightly. The supply and demand of shipping capacity are in a dynamic balance [88]. - **Market Views**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to trade at a high level, and the 10 - 12 anti - arbitrage position should be held [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 12 - May 18), treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the unexpected progress of China - US trade negotiations and marginal convergence of the capital market. Looking ahead to next week, the capital market is expected to see a slight increase in interest rates during the tax period, and the market sentiment will remain weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process will be tortuous, and there is a possibility of flattening in the short - term [13][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. On Monday, due to the unexpected statement of China - US trade negotiations, futures opened lower, then strengthened slightly and finally weakened significantly. On Tuesday, they turned from weak to strong. On Wednesday, they declined slightly. On Thursday, long - term futures performed strongly. On Friday, the curve flattened bearishly in the morning and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. As of May 16, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main continuous contracts were 102.368, 105.695, 108.460, and 118.880 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.012, +0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The capital market will be the focus. During the tax period, the capital market is expected to be slightly tighter, and the market sentiment will be weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process is tortuous, and there may be a slight flattening in the short - term. The capital interest rate is expected to rise slightly during the tax period, and the market's concern about the capital market persists [15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 77 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 707.974 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields increased. As of May 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.88% respectively, up 4.73, 6.80, 4.60, and 4.25 bp from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests decreased [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy decreased significantly. The basis of each variety is expected to gradually return to a normal level [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads of each variety generally widened in the opposite direction and are expected to gradually converge to 0 in the oscillation. However, the time for deploying this strategy is limited [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. As of May 16, capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all increased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank repurchase increased [51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of May 9, the US dollar index increased by 0.56% to 100.9828, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 bp to 4.43%. The spread between China and the US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 275 bp [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, with weak market sentiment, short - term defense is recommended. Aggressive investors can consider buying long - term varieties on dips. In the long - term, the curve is expected to steepen, but the process is tortuous. The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy has decreased significantly, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. The strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be tried, with a quick - in - quick - out approach [2][65]