1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term high - level volatile market [1] - PTA: High - level volatile market [1] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium - term pressure remains [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Cost support is relatively strong, hold long spreads. Supply is gradually loosening, and attention should be paid to the reduction scale caused by Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance [4] - PTA: Unilateral high - level volatile market, maintain long spreads. The PTA segment is still in continuous de - stocking [5] - MEG: The medium - term trend is still weak, conduct short spreads on the calendar spread. The supply of domestic ethylene glycol is still at a high level, and the rigid demand is declining [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX主力昨日收盘价7336, up 126 (1.75%); PTA主力5150, up 104 (2.06%); MEG主力3838, up 106 (2.84%); PF主力6532, up 70 (1.08%); SC主力428.2, up 6.5 (1.54%) [2] - **Calendar Spreads**: PX5 - 9 yesterday's closing price was 112, down 12; PTA5 - 9 was 90, unchanged; MEG5 - 9 was - 86, up 4; PF12 - 1 was - 54, up 16; SC11 - 12 was - 0.7, down 2.2 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 902.67 dollars/ton, up 19; PTA in East China was 5080 yuan/ton, up 50; MEG spot was 3680 yuan/ton, up 40; Naphtha MOPJ was 534.25 dollars/ton, up 11.75; Dated Brent was 62.91 dollars/barrel, down 0.04 [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 363.88, up 7.92; PTA processing margin was 361.63, up 6.66; Staple fiber processing margin was 120.64, down 21.37; Bottle chip processing margin was 43.68, down 25.41; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34, unchanged [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - Crude oil: The market is worried about the long - term oversupply pressure, and the geopolitical situation has not shown new intensification, so international oil prices have fallen [2] - PX: In the afternoon, PX negotiation prices were stalemate. May paper goods were negotiated at 903/905, and there were buy - orders for June at 900 [3] - PTA: Turkey launched an investigation at the request of local PTA producers, focusing on the sharp increase in PTA imports, industrial damage and causal relationships. No interim measures have been proposed yet, and the investigation period is generally 6 - 12 months [3] - MEG: From January 5th to January 11th, the arrival quantity in Zhangjiagang was about 6.2 tons, in Taicang Port about 7.9 tons, in Ningbo about 3.7 tons, and in Shanghai about 0 tons. The planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 17.8 tons [3] - Polyester: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately today. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 77%. The sales - to - production ratios of some factories were 80%, 80%, 60%, 90%, 80%, 60%, 100%, 30%, 80%, 30%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed individual differentiation. As of around 3:30 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be about 50% [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 [4] - PTA trend intensity: 0 [4] - MEG trend intensity: 0 [4] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **PX Supply**: Fushun Petrochemical's 1 million - ton PX unit was restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for startup in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate increased to 90%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance plan of Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton unit [4] - **PTA Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk rose to over 300 yuan/ton. New Fengming's 2.5 million - ton Phase 1 and Zhongtai Chemical's 1.2 million - ton units were restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate will remain at around 78%. Polyester filament factories cut production, while the operation of bottle chips and staple fibers remained stable. PTA is still in de - stocking [4][5] - **MEG Supply and Demand**: The domestic ethylene glycol supply is still at a high level of 73.73%, and Guangxi Huayi's 200,000 - ton unit was restarted. Overseas units such as China Taiwan's Nan Ya Plastics 720,000 - ton, Kuwait's 530,000 - ton, and Iran's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance. The arrival volume this week rebounded to over 170,000 tons. The polyester unit operating rate is 90%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is declining [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Bullish on PX and bearish on BZ, hold the long PX - short BZ position, and maintain the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position [4] - PTA: Hold the long PX - short PTA position, and maintain the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position [5] - MEG: Hold the long MEG - short PTA position, focus on the calendar spread long position [5] 2. Core Views - The PXN spread of PX continues to widen, and the market is in a high - level volatile state; PTA is in a high - level volatile state; hold the long MEG - short PTA position [1] - PX supply is expected to shrink, while PTA demand has increased, and the PX - MX spread has widened; PTA prices are supported by PX at the cost end and are in a high - level volatile state, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain; MEG supply is tightening, and the price is oscillating in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures yesterday were 6830, 4700, 3885, 6250, and 453.9 respectively, with daily changes of 112, 68, 12, 88, and 6.3, and daily changes of 1.67%, 1.47%, 0.31%, 1.43%, and 1.41% respectively [2] - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: The closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 calendar spreads yesterday were - 28, - 52, - 93, - 110, and - 0.5 respectively, with daily changes of 8, 2, - 20, - 30, and - 1 respectively [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were 836.33 dollars/ton, 4635 yuan/ton, 3879 yuan/ton, 571.5 dollars/ton, and 64.44 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily changes of 10, 20, - 10, 5.5, and 0.15 respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil yesterday were 260.33, 199.25, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.34 respectively, with daily changes of - 11.04, - 16.67, 9.65, 8.6, and 0 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - US textile and apparel imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year in August. In September 2025, the total retail sales decreased by 0.66% month - on - month and increased by 5.42% year - on - year after seasonal adjustment, and the core retail sales decreased by 0.49% month - on - month and increased by 5.72% year - on - year. In October, the total retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year, and the core retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month and 4.89% year - on - year [2] - Japan's textile and apparel imports in September were 477.893 billion yen, a month - on - month increase of 13.56% and a year - on - year increase of 6.62%. In October, it was 473.239 billion yen, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 3.03%. From January to September, the total imports were 3,587.466 billion yen, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%, and from January to October, it was 4,060.705 billion yen, a year - on - year increase of 3.45% [3] - The EU's textile and apparel imports in September were 11.282 billion euros, a month - on - month increase of 10.93% and a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. From January to September, the total imports were 93.165 billion euros, a year - on - year increase of 6.67% [3] - The UK's textile and apparel imports in September were 2.016 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 2.57% and a year - on - year increase of 12.87%. From January to September, the total imports were 16.167 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 6.06% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is - 1, indicating a bearish view; the trend intensity of PTA is - 1, also indicating a bearish view; the trend intensity of MEG is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] 3.4 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold the long PX - short BZ position and the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position. The domestic PX operating rate remains at 88.5% (- 1%), and the supply is expected to shrink due to planned maintenance of some devices. The PTA operating rate has increased, and the PX - MX spread has widened [4] - **PTA**: Hold the long PX - short PTA position and the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position. The PTA operating rate has increased to 73.7% (+1.6%), the polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+0.2%), and the price is in a high - level volatile state, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain [5] - **MEG**: Hold the long MEG - short PTA position, focus on the calendar spread long position. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate has increased to 72% (+6.2%), the overall supply is tightening due to planned maintenance of some devices, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is oscillating in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Medium-term trend is bullish, and positive spread arbitrage is recommended [1][4] - PTA: Sideways trading at high levels, and short the processing margin on rallies [1][4] - MEG: Medium-term trend remains bearish [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The market focused on India's cancellation of BIS certification requirements for PX, PTA, MEG and downstream polyester products, and the impact of a CDU device fire on downstream chemical plant operations. PX prices rose significantly, and MEG rebounded from the bottom [4][5] - Overseas gasoline blending demand is good, the arbitrage window for exporting Korean aromatic products such as MX and PX to the US is open, and some units have cut operating rates due to heavy losses in the disproportionation unit, resulting in tight PX supply. There will be no new domestic PX capacity in the first half of 2026, and there is a supply shortage in Southeast Asia. Based on the current high operating rate of polyester, there will still be a supply-demand gap for PX in the future [4] - Polyester load has rebounded more than expected, and PTA demand is fair. PTA operating rate has declined, and the inventory build-up pressure in the first half of November has eased. However, the future inventory build-up pattern is clear, and there is limited space for further positive spread arbitrage [4] - The future supply-demand situation of MEG remains oversupplied, and the medium-term trend remains bearish [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 13, the PX price remained firm. One December Asian spot was traded at $823, and the 12 - month MOPJ was estimated at $557/ton CFR [2] - PTA: The Nengtou 1 million - ton unit was shut down as planned, and the Zhongtai 1.2 million - ton unit increased its load to 90%. As of Thursday, the PTA load was adjusted to 75.7%, and the operating rate was around 81.2% [2] - MEG: As of November 13, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.59% (up 0.15% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 69.34% (down 2.6% from the previous period). Since October 1, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 30.075 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - based ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons [2] - Polyester: On November 13, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were polarized, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 56%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weak, with an average of about 40% [3] - On November 12, 2025, India revoked the BIS certification requirements for PX, PTA, MEG and downstream polyester products [3] Futures and Spot Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF and SC futures were 6836, 4700, 3892, 6224 and 452.9 respectively, with daily changes of 62, 30, 1, - 18 and - 16.2, and daily change rates of 0.92%, 0.64%, 0.03%, - 0.29% and - 3.45% [1] - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ and Dated Brent were $825.67/ton, 4565 yuan/ton, 3943 yuan/ton, $569.12/ton and $62.2/barrel respectively [1] - Spot Processing Margin: The PX - naphtha price difference, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference were $241.58/ton, 168.73 yuan/ton, 259.02 yuan/ton, 54.06 yuan/ton and - $4.34/ton respectively [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA and MEG are all neutral [3] Views and Suggestions - PX: The medium - term trend is bullish, and positive spread arbitrage is recommended. Do not chase the price in the short term [4] - PTA: Sideways trading at high levels. Short the processing margin on rallies when it is above 250 - 300 [4] - MEG: The medium - term trend remains bearish [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply of pure benzene has decreased, and short - term positive spreads are the main strategy [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - Futures prices: BZ2603 decreased from 5763 to 5734 (-29), BZ2604 decreased from 5749 to 5706 (-43), BZ2605 increased from 5701 to 5706 (5) [1] - Spread data: BZ2603 - BZ2604 increased from 14 to 28 (14), BZ2604 - BZ2605 decreased from 48 to 0 (-48) [1] - Paper prices: N + 1 decreased from 5695 to 5620 (-75), N + 2 decreased from 5695 to 5615 (-80) [1] - Inventory data: Pure benzene East China port inventory decreased from 10.6 to 9.1 (-1.5), styrene East China port inventory decreased from 114420 to 94135 (-20285) [1] - Price differences: Shandong pure benzene price decreased from 5646 to 5583 (-63), Shandong pure benzene price - hydrogenated benzene price decreased from -219 to -282 (-63) [1] News - As of October 9, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 9.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from the previous period (a 33.7% month - on - month decrease) and an increase of 1.6 million tons from the same period last year (a 21.33% year - on - year increase) [2] - From September 29 to October 9, the estimated arrival was about 1.2 million tons, and the estimated pick - up was about 2.7 million tons [2] - On October 9, the non - long - term agreement trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1100 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 5680 - 5720 yuan/ton (average price of 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from the previous working day) [2] - In the East China region, the spot negotiation price of pure benzene was 5720 - 5780 (average price 5750, a decrease of 35), the transaction price for the end of October was 5730 - 5770 (average price 5750, a decrease of 35), for the end of November was 5720 - 5740 (average price 5730, a decrease of 55), and for the end of December was 5700 - 5730 (average price 5715, a decrease of 70) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The crude oil market has become pessimistic after OPEC+ plans to increase production, and traders generally expect lower oil prices. PX valuation has weakened, but the supply-demand pattern is tight due to upcoming new PTA plant launches and high polyester factory operation rates. It is recommended to partially close positions and focus on long PX short Brent. For PX, 11-01 calendar spread is in contango, and 1-5 is in backwardation. Also, for 01/05, long PX short PTA is suggested [10]. - For PTA, the cost side is weakening, and the valuation has declined. The support for PTA processing margin is weak. Despite the high polyester operation rate, PTA is in a destocking pattern, but there is significant future supply pressure. It is advisable to continue monitoring the 11-01 contango position and the PTA01/05 processing margin compression position [10]. - The market is focusing on the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. The 01 contract faces significant pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 1-5 backwardation. Near - month spot has low inventory and strong basis. The unilateral price is in a weak and volatile market [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6778, 4688, 4302, 6370, and 489.2 respectively. The price changes were 6770, -10, -17, 6, and 3, with percentage changes of 0.12%, -0.21%, -0.39%, 0.09%, and 0.62% [2]. - The 11-1 spread of PX was 60, PTA 11-1 was -14, MEG 1-5 was -48, PF 11-12 was 14, and SC 11-12 was 1.7 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot price of PX CFR China was 838.33 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 4620 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 4422 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 604 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 66.3 dollars/barrel [2]. - The PX - naphtha spread was 233.75 dollars/ton, PTA processing margin was 131.77 yuan/ton, short - fiber processing margin was 208.61 yuan/ton, bottle - chip processing margin was 69.09 yuan/ton, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread was -6.01 dollars/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price declined slightly. PX prices were stable, with some spot transactions. The supply from the Middle East is limited due to strong gasoline demand. China's Fujia Dahua plans to shut down its 700,000 - ton/year No. 2 PX production line for maintenance [4][6]. - PTA: Some PTA plants in China restarted, and the PTA load reached 76.8%. A 110 - million - ton PTA plant in South China plans to conduct maintenance in mid - to - late October [7]. - MEG: The overall operating load in China was 74.91%, with the syngas - to - MEG operating load at 76.69%. An Xinjiang 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - MEG plant shut down, and an Iranian 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant is restarting [7][8]. - Polyester: The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%, and the overall polyester load in China reached about 91.6%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were mixed [8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG were all 0, indicating a neutral view [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 negative spread trading. Long on dips before mid - September for single - side price. Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading due to tight supply - demand [7] - PTA: Follow the downward trend of crude oil. Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading for monthly spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [7] - MEG: Short - term trend is weak due to the decline of coal and crude oil prices [7] Core Viewpoints - Due to weakening demand clues, Asian paraxylene prices declined on September 3. Spot PX prices may continue to fall, which may prompt producers to cut production in the short term [3][4] - PTA's profit margin is in trouble, and its price dropped on September 3. Its monthly spread is recommended to focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading [5][7] - MEG's internal market continued to be weak in the afternoon of September 3, and its short - term trend is weak [6][7] - Polyester's sales on September 3 were generally weak [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On September 3, PX price fell. The estimated price was 843 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars from September 2. One 10 - month Asian spot was traded at 844, and three 11 - month Asian spots were traded at 842, 842, 841.5 respectively. The end - of - session physical goods were negotiated at 844/846 for October and 841/844 for November [2] - PTA: On September 3, PTA spot price dropped to 4705 yuan/ton, with the mainstream basis at 01 - 51 [5] - MEG: In the afternoon of September 3, MEG's internal market continued to be weak, with the current spot basis at a premium of 86 - 91 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6] - Polyester: On September 3, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak overall, with an average sales rate of 3 - 4% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 41% by 3:00 pm [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [6] Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6810, 4732, 4331, 6410, and 493.2 respectively, with changes of - 0.35%, - 0.50%, - 0.18%, - 0.47%, and 0.57% [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The closing prices of PX11 - 1, PTA11 - 1, MEG1 - 5, PF11 - 12, and SC11 - 12 were 48, - 12, - 38, 12, and 0.5 respectively, with changes of - 4, 4, 3, - 4, and - 0.3 [2] - **Spot**: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 843 dollars/ton, 4700 yuan/ton, 4434 yuan/ton, 605 dollars/ton, and 69.43 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3 dollars/ton, - 27 yuan/ton, - 19 yuan/ton, 4.5 dollars/ton, and 0.52 dollars/barrel [2] - **Spot Processing Fee**: The PX - naphtha price difference, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference were 251.29, 188.78, 137.74, - 51.65, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 3.5, - 32.89, - 18.09, 38.94, and 0 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: 11-01 positive spread, 1-5 negative spread. Long PX and short EB. Go long on dips before mid-September [7] - PTA: Bullish on the single-sided price with limited downside. Partially take profit on the long PTA and short MEG strategy [7] - MEG: Bearish on the single-sided price with neutral valuation. Reduce short positions. Hold the 1-5 negative spread [8] Core Viewpoints - In the last quarter of 2025, China's PTA factory capacity is expected to further increase, and the PX supply and demand will remain in a tight balance [5][7] - PTA producers are facing low profit margins, and inventory expansion may threaten the market again [5] - MEG has a clear pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand after October, but the price may have limited short-term downside below 4300 [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6834, 4756, 4339, 6440, and 490.4 respectively, with changes of -0.47%, -0.34%, -1.99%, -0.71%, and 1.43% [2] - **Spot**: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 846 dollars/ton, 4727 yuan/ton, 4453 yuan/ton, 600.5 dollars/ton, and 69.43 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The PX-naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil spread were 251.29, 188.78, 137.74, -51.65, and -6.01 respectively [2] Market Dynamics - PX price declined on the 2nd, and the market is concerned about PTA operations [2][3] - PTA producers are struggling with low profit margins, and inventory may decline weekly but expand again [5] - The arrivals at major ports for MEG from September 1st - 7th were about 9.8 tons [6] - The sales of polyester and direct-spun polyester staple fiber were weak on the 2nd [6][7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience wide - amplitude fluctuations. The market supply - demand imbalance will continue until the end of September, and the freight rate trend in October is uncertain, with a small decline or stability being possible. The report suggests considering rolling into 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads on dips [10][12][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 1340.7 points, up 3.62%, with an increase of 1886 lots in positions. The second - main 2512 contract closed at 1733.5 points, up 6.88%, with an increase of 178 lots in positions [10] 3.2 Freight Rate - The SCFIS European route index was 1,773.60 points, down 10.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,013.90 points, down 2.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,481/TEU, down 11.2% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1,923/FEU, up 17.0% bi - weekly [1] - In the second week of September, the European basic port freight rate was maintained in the range of $1900 - 2200/FEU, with the FAK average around $2050/FEU. Shipping companies have successively lowered their freight rates [11] 3.3 Capacity - In September, the number of blank sailings remained unchanged at 6, and there were no pending voyages, with the weekly average capacity reaching 296,000 TEU/week, a decline of about 6% compared to August, significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In October, there are 2 pending voyages and 11 blank sailings. Without considering the pending voyages, the current weekly average capacity is 282,000 TEU/week, a 4.6% decline month - on - month and a 7% increase year - on - year [12] 3.4 Supply - Demand Pattern - In late August, the overall market loading rate was around 95%. Shipping companies have relaxed restrictions on low - price contract bookings and large - volume special offers, which helps short - term shipments but intensifies price competition. The supply - demand imbalance in the market will continue until at least the end of September, and the freight rate trend in October is uncertain [12] 3.5 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted European Line index stopped falling on September 10. In late September, there was a short - term speculation on the US West port strike, but the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday. After the holiday, the market first gave back the "strike" premium and then traded on the shipping company's price increase announcements [13] 3.6 Strategy - Consider rolling into 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads on dips [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - p - Xylene: Long the spread between November and January contracts, short the spread between January and May contracts. Long PX and short EB. Go long on dips before mid - September [7] - PTA: Long the spread between November and January contracts, long PTA and short MEG [1] - MEG: Long PTA and short MEG. Do not chase long positions, consider the valuation high above 4550 [1][9] 2. Core Views - The supply - demand of p - Xylene is in a tight - balance pattern. The overnight oil price rebound supports PX. In September, supply will marginally increase, but PX demand from new PTA projects keeps the balance tight [7][8] - PTA's unilateral price is oscillating strongly with limited downside. Polyester开工率 is rising. After some PTA device incidents, it turns to a de - stocking pattern. PTA basis and spread are supported, but factory hedging may suppress the price [8] - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market. Supply and demand both increase, and ports turn to a stocking pattern. The overall unilateral price support is limited. High coal - based profits impact the valuation of oil - based sources [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures prices had different changes. For example, PX主力期货昨日收盘价 was 6866, down 0.17%; PTA主力 was 4772, down 0.25% [2] - **Futures Spreads**: PX11 - 1 spread yesterday closed at 72, up 4; PTA11 - 1 was - 10, down 2; MEG1 - 5 was - 39, down 1 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 848 dollars/ton yesterday, down 0.67 dollars; PTA in East China was 4727 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; MEG spot was 4507 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 251.29 dollars/ton yesterday, down 3.5 dollars; PTA processing margin was 188.78 yuan/ton, down 32.89 yuan [2] Market Dynamics - **PX**: An East China factory postponed the restart of its PX and PTA devices. On September 1, Asian p - Xylene prices were basically stable, but concerns about upstream demand pressured the market. The Asian contract price negotiation for September p - Xylene cargoes failed to end by the end of August [2][3][4] - **PTA**: A 70 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China restarted at the end of August; a 55 - ton and a 150 - ton device are restarting, and a 120 - ton device is expected to stop on September 4 [5] - **MEG**: The inventory at East China main ports was about 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons. Different ports had different inventory changes [5] - **Polyester**: A 50 - ton polyester bottle - chip device in South China restarted, and a 35 - ton device in Northeast China stopped. Some polyester devices in other regions restarted or are expected to restart. The sales of polyester yarn and staple fiber were weak today [5][6] Trend Intensity - p - Xylene trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - PX: Long PX and short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [6] - PTA: Unilateral price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, focus on long PTA and short PX for the November contract [7] - MEG: Unilateral oscillating market, avoid chasing long positions, overvalued above 4550, long PTA and short MEG [8] 2. Core Views - PX prices fluctuated this week, with the decline faster and larger than expected due to the halt of the positive feedback of terminal fabric price increases. Asian PX operating rate changed little, and domestic supply is expected to increase marginally in September [6] - PTA prices also fluctuated this week, with the decline exceeding expectations because of concerns about the peak - season performance and slow recovery of polyester operating rate. PTA has shifted to a destocking pattern, and its basis and calendar spread are supported [7] - MEG is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with ports shifting to a stocking pattern. The 09 contract has limited support for the overall price, and the current polyester operating rate expectations are lowered [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX closed at 6878 with a - 0.12% change, PTA at 4784 (-0.17%), MEG at 4466 (0.02%), PF at 6500 (-0.40%), and SC at 485.2 (0.73%) [1] - **Calendar Spreads**: PX9 - 1 closed at - 108, down 156 from the previous day; PTA9 - 1 at - 62 (-6); MEG9 - 1 at - 37 (+4); PF9 - 1 at - 106 (-10); SC9 - 10 at - 8.2 (+0.5) [1] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 848.67 (unchanged), PTA in East China at 4740 (-35), MEG at 4534 (+9), naphtha MOPJ at 597.38 (+3.5), and Dated Brent at 67.85 (+0.4) [1] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 254.79 (-9), PTA processing margin at 221.67 (-29.59), staple fiber processing margin at 137.74 (-18.09), bottle - chip processing margin at - 51.65 (+38.94), and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread at - 6.01 (unchanged) [1] Market Dynamics - PX spot prices remained unchanged as there were no clear bullish or bearish drivers. The bearish sentiment in the crude oil market limited the increase in Asian PX prices due to concerns about potential consumer price inflation related to US tariff policies [1][2] - In the polyester industry, some polyester bottle - chip plants had restarted, shut down, or adjusted production in September. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 29th were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average [4][5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5]