Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot strong, domestic inventory rising, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is - 110 (spot price is 14250), showing a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The main position is net short and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline, which are bullish factors [6]. - Supply is increasing and the external environment is bearish, which are bearish factors [6]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 14 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed little recently [17]. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded [23][26]. - Tire production is at a record high for the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports are seasonally increasing [32]. Basis - The basis widened on July 14 [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and tire operating rates are at a high level [4]. - The basis is - 150 with a spot price of 13,800, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - The 20 - day line is downward, but the price is running above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) was flat on June 20th [8]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. The Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [17]. - **Import**: The import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, while tire production is at a record high in the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral, with some aspects showing a slightly bearish tendency [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. Market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are as follows: supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is high, rated as neutral; the basis is - 10 with a spot price of 14000, rated as neutral; inventory shows different trends in the exchange and Qingdao area, rated as neutral; the price is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, rated as neutral; the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions, rated as bearish; market sentiment dominates and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Leverage Factors and Main Risk Points** - **Positive Factors**: High - level downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resilient spot prices [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Increasing supply, rising market inventory, and a bearish external environment [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 18, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was also involved [8]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory has changed little recently, and Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][29][32]. - **Basis**: The basis narrowed on June 18 [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with supply starting to increase, foreign spot prices being strong, domestic inventories beginning to rise, and tire operating rates at a high level. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is 265 with the spot price at 13850, showing a bullish signal. Inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while those in Qingdao decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, overall neutral. The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in shorts, showing bearish signals. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Fundamentals Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline. Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [4][6][23][26][29][32] Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 12. The basis widened on June 12, with the futures at a premium [8][35] Inventory - The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have changed little recently. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [14][17][4] Import - The import volume is seasonally falling [20] Multi - empty Factors - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant spot prices. Bearish factors include increased supply, increased market inventories, and a bearish external environment [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View The report assesses the natural rubber market as neutral overall, with multiple factors influencing the market. The supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, and domestic inventories are starting to rise. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is mainly driven by market sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment [4]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 13,650 and the basis is - 75, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao area decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, with a neutral assessment [4]. - The market trend shows that the 20 - day line is downward and the price is running below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - The main positions show that the main net short position increased, which is bearish [4]. - The market is dominated by market sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Likely Factors**: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are strong [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Supply is increasing, market inventory is rising, and the external environment is bearish [6]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (not for delivery) increased on June 5 [8]. 3.4 Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. - The Qingdao area inventory has changed little recently [17]. 3.5 Import The import volume has a seasonal decline [19]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline [21][23]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [25]. - Tire industry exports have declined [27]. 3.7 Basis The basis became spot premium on June 5 [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are falling, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The market is dominated by market sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are falling [6]. - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on May 30 [10]. - The base price is 95 with a spot price of 13,500, showing a bullish sign [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is running below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish sign [6]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish sign [6]. 3.2 Fundamentals Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is relatively strong [6][8]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [16][19][6]. - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on May 30. The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available [10]. - **Import**: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [25][28][31][34]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are relatively strong [8]. - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, market inventory is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that the natural rubber market is currently in a neutral state overall. The supply is increasing, the domestic inventory is rising, and the tire operating rate is falling. However, the foreign spot price is rising, and the market is mainly driven by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is falling, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is 245 with a spot price of 14050, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The inventory situation is that the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, remaining neutral [4]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line pointing downwards, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The market is sentiment - driven, suggesting short - term trading [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Likely Positive Factors**: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are relatively strong [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Supply is increasing, market inventory is rising, and the external environment is bearish [6]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on May 27 [8]. 3.4 Inventory - The exchange inventory has shown little change recently [14]. - The Qingdao area inventory has shown little change recently [17]. 3.5 Import The import volume has seasonally declined [20]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26]. - Tire production has reached a new high for the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3.7 Basis The basis became a futures discount on May 27 and has been narrowing [35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the natural rubber market. The overall situation is complex, with a neutral fundamental outlook, a combination of bullish and bearish factors, and market sentiment driving short - term trading. The supply is increasing, the domestic inventory is rising, the tire start - up rate is falling, but there are also positive factors such as domestic economic recovery and high downstream consumption [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber starts to increase, foreign spot prices rise, domestic inventory begins to increase, and tire start - up rate drops. The market sentiment dominates and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing while the tire start - up rate is falling. Automobile production and sales are seasonally decreasing, but tire production and exports are at a high level [4][23][29]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is increasing seasonally, and the inventory in Qingdao area has resumed growth. Both are increasing week - on - week and decreasing year - on - year [4][14][17]. - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on May 12, and the base price on May 12 expanded [8][35]. - **Base Difference**: The spot price is 14,650, and the base difference is - 375, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk Performance**: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are strong [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Supply is increasing, market inventory is rising, and the external environment is bearish [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 4 基本面数据 基差 多空因素及主要风险点 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货回升，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率回升 中性 2、基差：现货14700，基差-115 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比减少 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、国内经济逐步复苏 • 2、下游消费高位 • 3、原料价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、市场库存增加 • 3、外部环境偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年4月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 4 基本面数据 基差 多空因素及主要风险点 现货价格 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货回升，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率回升 中性 2、基差：现货14550，基差-180 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比减少 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、国内经济逐步复苏 • 2、下游消费高位 • 3、原料价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、市场库存增加 • 3、外部环境偏空 • 风险点 ...