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瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250716
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 09:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon's three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon continues to show a slowdown trend. The industrial silicon price has been rising, with spot prices driving up futures prices, but trading volume is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8685 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the position of the main contract is 379848 lots, down 16805 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70457 lots, down 2674 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50215 lots, down 43 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 10, down 15 [2] 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 515 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - Industrial silicon monthly output is 305200 tons, up 5500 tons; industrial silicon social inventory is 552000 tons, up 10000 tons; industrial silicon monthly import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon monthly export volume is 52919.65 tons, down 12197.89 tons [2] 下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, up 0.72 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24179.3 tons; the weekly organic silicon DMC operating rate is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 201878500 tons, up 164500 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 11700 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 行业消息 - There are rumors that large industrial silicon manufacturers have cancelled their复产 plans and electricity price subsidies have been cancelled, but they are unconfirmed and need further tracking. Trump said that tariffs will be imposed on imported copper starting from August 1, with a 50% tariff increase. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable, and large - scale production enterprises have not reported any production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest has decreased, with enterprises in Baoshan actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers are mainly focused on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250715
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 09:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 396,653 lots (down 6,237 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 67,783 lots, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,258 lots, and the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), the Si main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons (up 10,000 tons), the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the daily average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the daily market price of overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41% (up 1.17%), the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons (down 337,930 tons), and the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There is a rumor that Xinjiang will cancel all electricity price subsidies, which will increase the cost of industrial silicon by 300 - 700 yuan/ton. Large manufacturers have temporarily cancelled their restart plans [3]. - The domestic industrial silicon spot market is stable, with the mainstream price of 421 in the domestic market ranging from 8,450 to 9,900 yuan/ton [3].
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250709
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 08:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Supply side remains loose with expected production increases from large and small enterprises, especially in the Southwest due to lower electricity prices and government subsidies in Xinjiang's Yili region [2] - Demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) for industrial silicon is slowing down, with organic silicon expected to have higher costs and lower production next week, polysilicon in a reduced - load operation state with decreased demand, and aluminum alloy in a passive de - stocking phase [2] - It is recommended to temporarily observe in the short term and maintain a high - selling strategy for the medium - to - long term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8140 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the main contract position is 399029 lots, up 11907 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 93605 lots, down 8706 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50792 lots, down 285 lots; the price spread between August and September industrial silicon is 5 yuan, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 610 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrode (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305200 tons, up 5500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 55.2 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52919.65 tons, down 12197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 4.49 tons, up 0.07 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24179.3 tons, up 7624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 68.24%, up 1.07%; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 164.5 tons, up 11.7 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - There are frequent rumors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, which need further verification; Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1 [2] Key Points of Attention - No news today [2]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250624
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 10:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon will remain loose as large manufacturers in the southwest may start production due to lower electricity prices, small and medium - sized enterprises have limited restart plans, and the Xinjiang Yili region in the northwest will continue to receive electricity subsidies. The overall demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon is slowing down. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy for the medium - to long - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,485 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the main contract position is 293,427 lots, down 9,692 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 48,542 lots, down 347 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 53,570 lots, down 614 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is 15 yuan, up 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 665 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,620 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 559,000 tons, down 13,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 45,000 tons, up 1,400 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.25 US dollars/kg, down 0.03 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 68.4%, up 2.12 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - Luxi Chemical announced on June 19 that its subsidiary signed a "Fluorine Product Framework Cooperation Agreement" with Sinochem Lantian Group Trading Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Haohua Technology, to solve the issue of同业 competition in difluoromethane. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focuses on key industries such as clean and low - carbon hydrogen, new energy storage, and green intelligent computing [2]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250617
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 09:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply - side, Yunnan, Sichuan and other regions are gradually entering the wet season, with an advantage in electricity price costs. Last week, production increased slightly and capacity utilization began to rise, and large enterprises started to increase production during the wet season. From the demand - side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The organic silicon market's spot price continues to decline, but enterprises are still increasing production during the wet season, and it is expected that production may increase slightly this week, which is partially beneficial to industrial silicon. The polysilicon sector is in a state of reduced load operation, and demand for industrial silicon has declined. In the aluminum alloy field, there is some demand support, but enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing, prices weakening, and it is difficult to drive up demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a flat trend. The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts has declined, and the large number of warehouse receipts has brought huge delivery pressure to the market. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium and long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the position of the main contract is 318,893 lots, a decrease of 4,470 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 42,302 lots, an increase of 2,564 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 56,823 lots, a decrease of 1,097 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is 40 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly production is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; social inventory is 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons; monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 4,900 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.36 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is - 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 66.28%, an increase of 7.61 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, a decrease of 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Hubei Yiheng's 80,000 - ton organic silicon new material project is expected to start trial production in July this year, which will promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial chain [2]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250612
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 09:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the silicone industry shows broad development prospects, with emerging fields potentially becoming the core growth driver, and the growth momentum comes from gradually replacing traditional petroleum-based materials and expanding emerging application scenarios [2] - With the approaching of the wet season, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places are gradually entering the wet season, showing an advantage in electricity price costs. However, judging from the capacity utilization rate and production data, the southwest region has no intention to resume work. Although the production has increased slightly, it remains at a low level [2] - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the silicone, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The overall demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries is on a downward trend. In the short term, there is pressure around 7,500, and call options are gradually being reduced. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium and long term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,455 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the position of the main contract is 121,504 lots, down 25,532 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 45,657 lots, down 14,035 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 58,372 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is 25 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 695 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,570 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly production of silicone DMC is 38,700 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of silicone DMC is 58.67%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly production of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250603
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 10:01
工业硅产业日报 2025-06-03 束,预计将进一步下滑。铝合金领域,终端消费电子和汽车行业有一定需求支撑,但企业多按需补库,库 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 存增长,价格持平,处于被动去库存,难有拉动。整体而言,三大下游行业对工业硅总需求呈现下降趋势 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 。工业硅仓单数量有所下滑,但依旧保持在6.5万手,庞大的仓单数量给盘面带来了巨大的交割压力。目前 免责声明 工业硅期货已经出现恐慌性交易,交易量放出天量,操作上建议,中长线依旧高空思路 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 ...
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250526
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 09:01
支撑,但企业多按需补库,采购规模未出现明显增长。整体而言,三大下游行业对工业硅总需求呈现下降 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 7610 | -305 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 206212 | 27828 -655 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -20943 | 614 广期所仓单(日,手) | 64913 | | | | 7-8月合约价差 | -35 | -5 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8600 | -50 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9400 | -100 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 990 | 255 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11740 | 60 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | ...
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250522
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 09:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the flood season approaches in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places, the electricity price cost advantage emerges, stimulating the resumption of production of local industrial silicon enterprises to accelerate [2]. - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the fields of organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy. The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a downward trend, making it difficult to strongly drive the market [2]. - The large number of warehouse receipts brings huge delivery pressure to the market, severely suppressing price increases. Overall, supply is low, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 183,690 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,112 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 30,513 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,233 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 65,298 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 355 lots [2]. - The price difference between the July - August contracts is - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract is 770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 11,680 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,930 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, and the weekly average spot price is 4.3 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg [2]. - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 691.08 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - A notice was issued for the preferred investment and development entities of the second and third batches of new energy projects in Guangnan County, Yunnan Province in 2024. The second batch includes 4 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects with a total installed capacity of 310,000 kilowatts [2]. - The state is increasing investment to support long - term data infrastructure construction [2]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250519
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 10:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend and fails to strongly boost the market. The large number of warehouse receipts exerts significant delivery pressure on the market, severely restricting price increases. Overall, with low supply, reduced demand, and high inventory, a mid - to long - term short - selling strategy is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,130 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 155,038 lots, up 16,616 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22,466 lots, up 2,521 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 66,097 lots, down 287 lots; the spread between the July - August contracts is - 35, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 820 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, up 3,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, up 2,211.36 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is down 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 39,200 tons, down 300 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, down 0.04 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons, up 691.08 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 59.57%, down 0.48 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, up 165.5 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On May 17, 2025, Aba Xilong Industrial Silicon Co., Ltd. obtained a patent named "A New Device for Improving the Screening Rate of Industrial Silicon Powder" with the authorization announcement number CN222872642U and an application date of June 2024. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. As the wet season approaches in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places, the cost advantage of electricity prices stimulates local industrial silicon enterprises to resume production more quickly [2]