Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the prediction made by Jack Ma regarding the real estate market, emphasizing that by 2026, housing prices may continue to decline, reflecting a trend of "housing prices like green onions" [1][3]. Group 1: Declining Demand for Marriage Housing - Marriage housing has been a crucial driver for real estate prices, with 11.428 million couples registering for marriage in 2016, significantly boosting the market [6]. - However, the number of marriage registrations has dropped to 3.539 million in the first half of the year, indicating a decline in demand for marriage housing [8]. - Experts predict that the number of marriage registrations may fall below 6 million by 2026, further weakening the housing market [10]. Group 2: Population Decline - China has experienced three consecutive years of population decline, which is a major macroeconomic factor contributing to the current real estate downturn [12]. - The trend of population decline is expected to continue until at least 2090, leading to an oversupply in the housing market [12]. - The aging population and gender imbalance among the marriageable demographic exacerbate the issue, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above [14]. Group 3: Shift to "Housing for Living, Not Speculating" - The public has adapted to the new market reality of "housing for living, not speculating," reducing the appeal of real estate as an investment compared to stocks and gold [17]. - The average listing period for second-hand homes has exceeded 110 days, making quick sales increasingly difficult [19]. - The stock market has seen a surge in interest, with the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, drawing investors away from real estate [21]. Group 4: Rise of Affordable Housing - The government is now promoting a dual approach of developing both commercial and affordable housing to meet residential needs [23]. - Many cities are integrating affordable housing development with real estate inventory reduction strategies, directly purchasing unsold properties from developers [25]. - Affordable housing is becoming a key strategy in urban areas to attract residents, alleviating the burden of high housing prices for ordinary workers [25]. Conclusion - The era of "housing prices like green onions" has arrived, and the focus should shift to the residential attributes of housing rather than speculative investments [27].

Core Insights - Jack Ma's prediction about future housing prices being as low as "scallions" has proven to be accurate as the real estate market has entered a downward trend since the second half of 2021 [1][3] Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The domestic housing market has been in a decline since the second half of 2021, with cities like Zhengzhou and Shijiazhuang experiencing price drops first, followed by major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [3] - By July, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 0.77% month-on-month and 7.32% year-on-year, indicating a continuous expansion of the decline [3] - The average national housing price has dropped over 30% from its historical peak in 2021, with specific examples like a property in Shanghai that decreased from 4 million to 2.56 million [5] Group 2: Market Signals - There has been a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale, with Beijing reaching 163,300 listings, Shanghai surpassing 330,000, and other cities like Wuhan and Chongqing also showing high numbers [7] - The willingness of the general public to buy homes is decreasing, as evidenced by a reduction in bank deposits by 1.11 trillion yuan in July 2025, with funds being redirected to stock markets and other investments rather than real estate [9] - Among the 25-30 age group, the willingness to purchase homes has dropped to 48%, down from 65% in 2020, with many young people opting for a "rent and invest" strategy instead [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a "split" scenario, with significant disparities between different cities and property types, leading to a fundamental shift in market dynamics and perceptions of property value [5][11][36]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, while new residential sales fell by 6.5% [5]. - In lower-tier cities, property prices have plummeted, with homes that once sold for 500,000 yuan now listed at 150,000 yuan, reflecting a drastic decline in demand [7]. - In contrast, luxury properties in first-tier cities continue to see high demand, with some units priced at nearly 200,000 yuan per square meter selling out quickly [11][36]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - Since 2022, China's population has entered a phase of negative growth, resulting in fewer potential homebuyers, particularly among the younger generation [16]. - The number of individuals in the primary home-buying demographic (those born in the 2000s) is 47 million less than those born in the 1990s, altering the supply-demand balance [16][20]. - The traditional belief in the necessity of "school district housing" is being challenged as families reassess the value of high mortgage payments for educational purposes [20][23]. Group 3: Policy Responses - The government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market rather than simply driving prices up, with measures aimed at both "bottoming out" and guiding the market [25][28]. - The "shelter reform 2.0" initiative is expanding from major cities to nearly 300 cities, aiming to alleviate inventory issues in lower-tier markets through financial compensation and housing vouchers [30][32]. - Consumer rights protections are being enhanced, including trials to eliminate "shared area" calculations in property sales, which is expected to boost buyer confidence [32]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The prediction that "housing prices will be like scallions" suggests a return to real estate as a basic necessity rather than a speculative asset, with a focus on living quality rather than investment [34][36]. - Industry leaders believe that the era of rising property prices is over, and the new norm will be that "housing does not equal wealth" [38]. - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to be a critical turning point for the Chinese real estate market, transitioning towards a more rational and human-centered approach [40][41].