Core Insights - The recent Central Urban Work Conference indicates a shift in urban development strategy from rapid expansion to quality improvement and urban renewal, reflecting a similar context to the 2015 meeting [3][5][7] - The current economic backdrop mirrors that of 2015, with low growth rates, high inventory pressures in the real estate market, and challenges in traditional industries [7][9] - A new round of urban renewal is anticipated, but the scale of initiatives may be limited compared to previous efforts, as many properties have already been addressed in past reforms [11][13] Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - Urbanization in China has transitioned from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on enhancing existing urban areas rather than expanding [3] - Officials are encouraged to adopt a sustainable development approach, moving away from inefficient large-scale infrastructure projects [3] - The strategy includes developing modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas to improve the capacity for population and economic growth [3] Group 2: Economic Context - The economic conditions today are reminiscent of 2015, with a growth rate of 6.9% and significant pressures on the real estate sector [7][9] - The real estate market has been under continuous downward pressure, affecting related industries and local government revenues [9] - The potential for a "Shelter Reform 2.0" initiative is being discussed, similar to the successful policies implemented after the 2015 meeting [9][11] Group 3: Urban Renewal Challenges - The scale of urban renewal efforts is expected to be smaller than in previous years, with only 1 million units targeted for renovation compared to 18 million in the past [11] - Current urbanization rates are high, with 67% urbanization and a 61.5% household leverage ratio, indicating a saturation point in urban growth [13] - Future urbanization will focus on both new developments and the improvement of existing urban areas, with a shift towards smaller cities and counties [13][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expected by the market has failed to materialize. The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are weak, but the market sentiment is positive before the Politburo meeting, leading to an increase in futures prices. The market still needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for product prices [3]. - In the short term, the prices of various varieties are more influenced by emotions and expectations. The current market is a capital behavior under the improvement of the macro - environment. It is difficult to determine whether the prices have reached the short - term peak. Speculators are advised to treat the current market rationally, while industrial players can consider hedging operations according to their own situations [10][15]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.869%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 10,181 lots in the main contract position. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,292 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton (1.198%), with an increase of 60,284 lots in the main contract position. In the spot market, the rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai were 3,180 yuan/ton and 3,220 yuan/ton respectively, with Shanghai's price increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Lecong and Shanghai were 3,330 yuan/ton and 3,320 yuan/ton respectively, both increasing by 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory increased slightly; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest levels in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, up 1.62% (12.50), with an increase of 12,867 lots in the position, changing to 703,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1,155,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.31 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.72% [5]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments remained stable, with a decline in Australian shipments due to port maintenance, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in shipments from non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrival volume continued to increase. The daily average pig iron output was 242,440 tons, an increase of 2,630 tons. Port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Information**: On July 17, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed at 5,794 yuan/ton, up 0.77%. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed at 5,482 yuan/ton, up 1.37%. The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 96 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5,470 yuan/ton, with a discount of 12 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. - **Technical and Fundamental Analysis**: Manganese silicon is still in a volatile rebound, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. Ferrosilicon shows a wide - range volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5,600 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. Fundamentally, the industry pattern is over - supplied, future demand is expected to weaken, and there is still room for cost reduction [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Information**: On July 17, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 8,950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 205 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the futures [14]. - **Technical and Fundamental Analysis**: Industrial silicon has broken away from the downward trend since November 2024, and the short - term rebound trend continues. Fundamentally, it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 216,300 heavy boxes (3.22%) to 64.939 million heavy boxes, and the inventory days decreased by 1.0 day to 27.9 days. The supply is stable, demand has certain resilience, and the cost support is strengthened. The short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong, and short positions should be avoided in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 15 yuan to 1,210 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 21,600 tons (1.15%) to 1.9056 million tons. The demand is still sluggish, the supply is loose in the medium term, and the inventory pressure continues to increase. It rebounds in the short term due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to be weak in the medium term [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and oscillating trend. The market's expectation of "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" has failed. The static fundamental contradictions are not obvious at present, and the market still needs to pay attention to further policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July. At the same time, it is necessary to track the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [3]. - The short - term trend of iron ore prices is strong with oscillations, and attention should be paid to risk control after increased fluctuations. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in market sentiment and the macro - realization nodes [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market in speculation and pay attention to price fluctuation risks. The industrial side can consider hedging operations [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and the industrial side can carry out hedging operations [14][15]. - The short - term price of glass is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term. The short - term price of soda ash rebounds due to market sentiment, but the fundamental supply - demand contradiction still exists in the medium term, and the trend is expected to be weak [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 96,689 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract position was 2.137057 million lots, a decrease of 16,795 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 62,501 tons, a decrease of 2086 tons. The main contract position was 1.549973 million lots, a decrease of 16,803 lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products oscillated weakly. The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expectation has failed. The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. The inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a low level in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 773.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.78% (+6.00), and the position increased by 21,689 lots to 690,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.1402 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 758 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.95% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable in the latest period. Australia's shipment continued to decline due to port maintenance, Brazil's shipment increased significantly, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume continued to increase. The daily average pig iron output decreased to 2.3981 million tons. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory continued to increase [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated slightly lower, closing down 0.59% at 5750 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 140 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) oscillated lower in the morning and accelerated its decline in the afternoon, closing down 1.57% at 5408 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations. The fundamental situation points downward, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, weakening future demand, and downward adjustment space for the cost of manganese ore and electricity [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) oscillated lower, closing down 1.14% at 8685 yuan/ton. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 265 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The industrial silicon still faces problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe on Wednesday was 1164 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes (-2.87%) from the previous period. The short - term price is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1195 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.884 million tons, an increase of 20,600 tons (1.11%) from the previous week. The demand is still weak, and the supply is loose in the medium term, with large inventory pressure. The short - term price rebounds due to market sentiment, but the trend is expected to be weak in the medium term [18].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the black building materials market on July 16, 2025, covering steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash [1][4][7][13][16] - Overall, the market is influenced by macro - policies and fundamentals, with the need to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [3] Group 2: Steel Price and Position - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.76%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8179 tons and the main contract position increasing by 31509 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3259 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.51%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts unchanged and the main contract position decreasing by 13515 lots [2] Market Analysis - Macro: The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expectation has failed. China's urbanization rate is 66%, and the policy for new housing renovation is "steady progress" [3] - Fundamentals: Rebar has a double - decline in supply and demand with accelerated inventory reduction; hot - rolled coils have a double - decline in supply and demand with a slight inventory increase [3] - Outlook: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as terminal demand and cost support [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Price and Position - The main contract (I2509) closed at 767.00 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+0.50), with a position increase of 3867 lots to 66.87 million lots [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas shipments were stable, with Australian shipments down, Brazilian shipments up, and non - mainstream shipments slightly down, and near - end arrivals increasing [6] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased to 239.81 tons due to regular maintenance and weather reasons [6] - Inventory: Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased [6] - Outlook: The price is short - term bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - realization nodes [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Price and Position - Manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 0.03% at 5784 yuan/ton; the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [8] - Ferrosilicon main contract (SF509) closed up 0.18% at 5494 yuan/ton; the Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5530 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] Market Analysis - Technical: Manganese silicon is breaking away from the downward trend and is in a volatile rebound; ferrosilicon is in a wide - range shock [9] - Fundamentals: The industry has an over - supply pattern, with weakening future demand and potential cost reduction [9] - Outlook: Short - term prices are driven by sentiment. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can hedge [10] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Price and Position - The main contract (SI2509) closed up 1.04% at 8785 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton [14] Market Analysis - Technical: It has broken away from the downward trend since November 2024 and is in a short - term rebound [14] - Fundamentals: It has an over - supply problem and insufficient effective demand [14] - Outlook: Short - term prices are driven by sentiment. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can hedge [15] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Spot prices in Shahe were flat, and in Central China, they increased by 30 yuan. The total inventory decreased by 2.87% [17] - The central finance meeting promoted the glass price rebound. In the medium term, avoid short positions [17] Soda Ash - The spot price decreased by 10 yuan. The total inventory increased by 1.11%, with heavy - soda inventory increasing [18] - Demand is weak, and the supply is loose in the medium term. The price is expected to be weak [18]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is currently experiencing significant market enthusiasm, driven by rumors of policy changes and the emerging narrative of Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization [1][4]. Policy Developments - Since last year, a series of unprecedented policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have been introduced at both central and local levels, including measures like housing consumption support in Beijing and home purchase subsidies for families in Qingdao and Wuxi [3]. - Over 110 provinces and cities have implemented more than 170 real estate policies in 2025 alone, covering various aspects such as purchase subsidies and adjustments to purchase restrictions, creating a strong policy synergy [3]. RWA and Real Estate - RWA refers to the tokenization of physical assets like real estate through blockchain technology, allowing for the trading of these assets as digital tokens [4]. - The application of RWA in real estate is breaking traditional investment barriers, lowering investment thresholds, and enhancing liquidity by allowing fractional ownership of properties [5]. - Real estate developers are utilizing RWA technology to create new financing channels, converting future revenue rights into digital assets to attract a broader range of investors and alleviate financial pressures [5]. Role of Stablecoins - Stablecoins play a crucial role in the integration of RWA and real estate, particularly in cross-border and large transactions, by mitigating exchange rate risks and streamlining transaction processes [6]. - The recent surge in the real estate sector can be seen as a reflection of market enthusiasm for RWA and stablecoin narratives, aligning with the domestic market's trend of event-driven and thematic speculation [6].