-、宏观消息汇总 1。人社部、财政部印发《关于2025年调整退休人员基本养老金 的通知》，退休人员基本养老金上调2% 万和财富早班车 2025年7月11日 ● 国内金融市场 ● 我们不是资讯的搬运工 而是有态度的发现者 2. 多家硅片企业上调了硅片报价，不同尺寸的硅片价格涨幅在 8%—11.7%，相关个股：TCL中环(002129)、降基绿能(601012)等 3. 上半年工程机械行业复苏，业内预计全年内需保持两位数以 上增速，相关个股：徐工机械(000429)、柳工(000528)等 三、上市公司聚焦 1 三美股份(603379):预计上半年净利润同比增长147%-172%, 氟制冷剂产品均价同比大幅上涨 2 TCL科技(000100)：2025年上半年公司净利润18亿元-20亿元, 同比增长81%-101%,半导体显示业务净利润同比增长超70% 3. 内蒙华电(600863)：拟向北方公司购买其持有的正蓝旗风电 70%股权与北方多伦75.51%的股权 2 商务部:将会同有关部门落实好家政兴农相关政策措施,制 定修订一批家政领域标准 3。自然资源部：2025年上半年,我国新发现矿产地38处,同比 增长31% ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 11 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/11 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 沪深300股指期货 | 多晶硅 | | | | 瓶片 | 沥青 | 橡胶 | | | | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | 橡胶 | | | | 短纤 | 中证500股指期货 | 玻璃 | | | | 乙二醇 | 上证50股指期货 | 焦炭 | | | | 锌 | 工业硅 | 焦煤 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 燃油 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 十债 | | | | | 三十债 | 白糖 | | | | | 硅铁 | 二债 | | | | | 幸運 ...

稳地产信号释放之际，汇丰、大摩集体看好中国地产的反弹之势。 7月10日周四，发改委的一则重磅表态，再度展现了稳地产的决心。据人民财讯当日报道，国家发改委 城市和小城镇改革发展中心近日表示，允许人口流入城市利用超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等资 金，加大闲置存量土地回收和存量商品房收购力度，持续扩大农业转移人口保障性住房供给。 当天，AH地产股迎来强劲反弹，集体掀起涨停潮。华尔街见闻文章写道，沪指站稳3500点，A股渝开 发、南山控股等多股涨停；港股内房股涨势更为迅猛，大方广瑞德、远洋集团等涨30%，龙光集团、弘 阳地产、绿地香港等涨20%。 不过，该行认为基本面影响将高度依赖政策执行，特别是资金规模、开发商选择标准、城市间资金分配 以及回购定价等关键细节。 政策信号正在在释放 近日，国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发展中心表示，锚定到2035年基本实现新型城镇化目标，要顺 应规律、把握趋势，紧抓城镇化动力仍然较强的关键时期，高质量推进新型城镇化四大行动，为中国式 现代化提供有力支撑。其中，要以"两重""两新"资金使用为抓手，加大新型城镇化重点领域投入。 一是加大"两重"建设力度，支持符合条件的新一轮农业转移人口 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -8% -2% 3% 9% 15% 21% 26% 32% 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,509.68 | 0.48 | | 深证成指 | | 10,631.13 | 0.47 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,010.02 | 0.47 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,793.67 | 0.57 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,983.05 | 0.50 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 11 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3509.68 | 0.48 | | 深证成指 | 10631.13 | 0.47 | | 创业板指 | 2189.58 | 0.22 | | 科创 50 | 979.99 | -0.32 | | 北证 50 | 1408.17 | -0.16 | | 沪深 300 | 4010.02 | 0.47 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 681788 | 529616 | 12.56 | 1.30 | | 深证成指 | 232819 | 191695 | 20.73 | 2.19 | | 创业板指 | 61372 | 48797 | 28.72 | 3.98 | | 科创 50 | 34292 | 22774 | 53.23 | 4.13 | | 北证 50 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance announced an increase in basic pension levels for retirees starting January 1, 2025, with an overall adjustment level of 2% based on the average monthly basic pension of retirees in 2024 [2] - The Chinese government is taking measures to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals such as antimony and gallium, with a special action launched in May to prevent illegal outflows [2] - A new agreement between the Chinese and Malaysian governments will allow visa-free travel for holders of ordinary passports for stays of up to 30 days, effective July 17, 2025 [3] Group 2 - The China Automobile Industry Association reported that the automotive industry saw significant growth in the first half of the year, with production and sales exceeding 15 million units, and new energy vehicle sales reaching 6.968 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.4% [4] - The Beijing Municipal Government aims for an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030, with plans to create 2-3 consumption landmarks worth over 100 billion [4] - U.S. stock indices saw collective gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, indicating a positive market sentiment [4] Group 3 - Companies such as Tianbao Infrastructure reported a significant net profit increase of 1581.8% to 2329.27% year-on-year for the first half of the year [6] - East Sunshine projected a net profit increase of 157.48% to 192.81% for the first half of the year [7] - Southwest Securities noted that the profitability of thermal power companies is improving due to declining fuel costs, with a recovery of 11% in stock prices since late January [8] Group 4 - Zhongyuan Securities highlighted that the ongoing anti-involution policies in the chemical industry may lead to a better industry structure, recommending attention to the pesticide, organic silicon, and polyester filament sectors [9]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from January 1, 2025, the basic pension for approximately 150 million retirees will be increased by 2% based on the average monthly pension of retirees in 2024 [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that by 2035, China aims to achieve new urbanization goals, focusing on high-quality development and investment in key areas [3] - The China Automobile Industry Association reported that in the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44.3% of total new car sales [4] - WuXi AppTec announced an estimated revenue of approximately 20.799 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 20.64% [4] - iFlytek expects a loss of 200 million to 280 million yuan in the first half of 2025, although it has seen a 15% to 20% increase in revenue compared to the previous year [4] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3509.68, up 0.48% [7] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose to 10631.13, an increase of 0.47% [7] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.57%, closing at 24028.37 [7] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 2%, settling at $65.59 [7] - COMEX gold prices rose by 0.32%, reaching $3333 [7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sales of various excavators reached 18,804 units in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with domestic sales of 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports of 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [1] - In the first half of 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, with domestic sales of 65,637 units (up 22.9%) and exports of 54,883 units (up 10.2%) [1] - The domestic excavator sales in June showed a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, rebounding by 7.7 percentage points compared to previous values, driven by accelerated second-hand exports and a low base from the previous year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain stable growth in excavator sales, with domestic earth-moving equipment projected to achieve double-digit growth for the year [2] - The demand for excavators is shifting towards recovery, particularly in the mining sector and major water conservancy projects, while the demand for small excavators is slowing down [2] - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds and increase local government special bonds to stimulate infrastructure investment, which is expected to boost downstream equipment demand [5][6] Group 3: Company Performance - Zoomlion (000157) anticipates that domestic sales will enter a growth trajectory, expanding its business from domestic markets to global markets across engineering, agricultural, and mining machinery [3] - Sany International (00631) reported a revenue of 5.876 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with net profit rising by 23.2% [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, particularly in emerging regions, while also enhancing its product offerings in earth-moving, agricultural, and mining machinery [7]

1. 公开市场操作 2. 资金面 流动性微幅收敛，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率小幅上行，目前位于1.32%位置。七天质押式回购利率上行近2个bp，现位于1.49%位置。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.34%。 // 债市综述 // 央行公告称，7月10日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了900亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量900亿元，中标量900亿元。Wind数据显示， 当日572亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放328亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.62%附近，较上日小幅上行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷上行 （*数 据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 （IMM） 3. 同业存单 30年期主力合约跌0.36% 10年期主力合约跌0.16% 5年期主力合约跌0.14% 2年期主力合约跌0.04% （*数据来源：Wind-国债期货） （* ...

重要的消息有哪些 1．日前，人力资源社会保障部、财政部印发《关于2025年调整退休人员基本养老金的通知》。《通 知》明确，从2025年1月1日起，为2024年底前已按规定办理退休手续并按月领取基本养老金的退休人员 提高基本养老金水平，总体调整水平为2024年退休人员月人均基本养老金的2%。此次调整是综合考虑 物价变动和职工工资增长等各方面因素，合理确定养老金调整比例。《通知》要求，各省、自治区、直 辖市要结合本地区实际，制定具体实施方案，抓紧组织实施，尽快把调整增加的基本养老金发放到退休 人员手中。 2．在今天下午召开的商务部例行新闻发布会上，新闻发言人就中国政府是否已采取相关措施打击关键 矿产转运和走私行为作出了回应。商务部新闻发言人何咏前：锑和镓等战略矿产具有明显的军民两用管 制，对其实施出口管制，符合国际通行做法。为坚决防止非法外流，今年5月，中国国家出口管制工作 协调机制办公室，已部署开展打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动，相关信息可在商务部网站查询。同时， 中国作为负责任大国，也充分考虑各国对上述战略矿产合理民用需求，依法依规对相关出口许可申请进 行审查，并批准合规申请。 3．《中华人民共和国政府和马来西 ...