Report Information - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the third week of June, the industrial silicon output was 76,600 tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the monthly output exceeded 320,000 tons. Domestic demand remained at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remained at 50,000 tons. Recently, the expectation of polysilicon production cuts was disappointed, bringing a marginal increase in demand. The futures warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled and出库, dropping to 266,300 tons [4]. - The spot price remained stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market improved. The technical breakthrough and production cut news resonated, stimulating a sharp intraday rise in industrial silicon. However, the production cuts had not been implemented, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged significantly behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased marginally, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The improvement in fundamentals was limited. The production increased for four consecutive weeks, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. 2. Market News - On June 26, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 53,234 lots, a net decrease of 29 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, the export volume of industrial silicon in May 2025 was 53,840 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.48% [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon has stopped falling and stabilized, but the supply-demand imbalance has not significantly improved. With high supply and high inventory limiting the upside and cost and current price providing support, the market has reached a weak balance in the short term and will continue to operate weakly [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,420 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%, with a trading volume of 292,932 lots and an open interest of 303,119 lots, a net decrease of 2,437 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, with the price center of 553 at 8,300 yuan/ton and that of 421 at 8,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The supply of industrial silicon has been increasing for 4 consecutive weeks, with a weekly output of 76,600 tons in the third week of June and a monthly output exceeding 320,000 tons. The demand remains unchanged, with domestic demand at 260,000 tons and monthly exports at 50,000 tons. The spot and futures inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, but the continuous cancellation of futures warehouse receipts provides support. The market is expected to continue its weak operation [4]. 2. Market News - On June 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 54,184 lots, a net decrease of 439 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, the export volume of industrial silicon in April 2025 was 60,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.19%. The overall overseas market is relatively stable [5].