Investor capital is circulating globally, with Japan and emerging markets ETFs gaining traction as trade policy uncertainty makes a comeback.About $1 billion was injected into the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSE:EWJ) last week, while the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:VWO) attracted around $949 million. These two separate inflows indicate that investors are diversifying their portfolios beyond U.S. stocks during a period when tariff agreements related to President Donald Trump's policy agenda are aga ...

格隆汇2月13日｜美国财经网站investinglive分析师Adam Button评美国CPI数据指出，CPI数据公布后， 市场对美联储的定价出现轻微鸽派转向，美元随之走软，标普500指数期货抹去早前跌幅。值得注意的 是，因政府停摆导致10月CPI数据缺失，11月数据收集启动晚于往常，覆盖了更多季节性假日折扣。经 济学家普遍警告，这些干扰因素可能人为压低了读数。肉类价格成为突出焦点，同比飙升8.9%，创 2022年以来最大涨幅，其中生鲜碎牛肉涨幅近15%。尽管这份低于预期的报告受到市场欢迎，并为美联 储继续降息提供支撑，但分析师强调，12月报告才能更清晰地揭示潜在通胀趋势。 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian economy experienced an unexpected decrease in employment by 24,800 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, the lowest level in 16 months [1] - The manufacturing sector lost 27,500 jobs, primarily concentrated in Ontario, where key industries were impacted by U.S. tariffs [1] - Overall employment declines in manufacturing, educational services, and public administration outpaced job growth in information, business services, agriculture, and utilities [1] Group 2 - The employment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%, marking the first decline since August 2025 [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages for permanent employees dropped to 3.3%, the lowest in seven months, down from 3.7% in December [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the U.S. economy with a projected GDP growth rate of 2.5% for Q4 2026, suggesting an investment rating that leans towards optimism for the U.S. market [1][3]. Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will benefit from reduced tariff impacts, tax cuts, corporate fiscal support, and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a GDP growth forecast that exceeds market consensus [1][2][3]. - For China, the economic growth forecast for 2026 is also above market consensus, driven by export growth that offsets negative impacts from the real estate sector, with an expected current account surplus reaching about 1% of global GDP [1][6]. - The report anticipates a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar in 2026, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's potential for larger rate cuts compared to other developed markets [1][8]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.5% in Q4 2026, supported by factors such as reduced tariffs, tax relief for consumers, and corporate fiscal support [1][3]. - The labor market is projected to remain stable with an unemployment rate around 4.5%, despite rising productivity levels [4]. China Economic Forecast - China's economic growth is anticipated to surpass market expectations, with export growth compensating for real estate sector weaknesses [1][6]. - The current account surplus is expected to expand, reflecting strong performance in export-oriented industries [6]. Currency and Inflation Trends - The report forecasts a continued decline in the U.S. dollar, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][8]. - Inflation in developed countries is cooling, with expectations that it will approach central bank targets by the end of the year [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the stock market may continue to perform well, although at a diminishing rate, due to a favorable macro environment [13]. - Credit markets are viewed as less favorable compared to equity markets, with narrowing spreads limiting upside potential [14].

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 912,164 kilograms, with an increase of 240 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main silver futures maintained a fluctuating pattern, opening at 15,447 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 15,666 yuan, and closing at 15,521 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.44% [1] Group 2 - In the Shanghai warehouses, the total silver futures showed a net decrease of 3,483 kilograms, with specific warehouses like Zhonggongmei Supply Chain reporting a drop of 8,819 kilograms [2] - The Guangdong warehouse, Shenzhen Weibao, reported an increase of 3,723 kilograms, contributing to the overall total [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll report for September indicates a clear dovish trend, suggesting a continued cooling in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the current data is limited, but predictions can still be made based on trends, indicating a potential for policy adjustments [1] - Bowman expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut if her vote is decisive in the next meeting, highlighting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - New York Fed President John Williams noted that as the labor market cools, the policy stance should be adjusted closer to neutral, reinforcing the dovish sentiment within the Fed [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The remarks from both Bowman and Williams have been interpreted by the market as a stronger dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [1]

Core Insights - The recent non-farm payroll report for September is perceived as "clearly dovish," indicating a continued cooling in the U.S. labor market [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed a willingness to support a 25 basis point rate cut if her vote is decisive in the next meeting [1] - New York Fed President John Williams noted that there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools, suggesting a shift towards a more neutral policy stance [1] Group 1 - The September non-farm payroll report reinforces evidence of a cooling labor market [1] - Michelle Bowman highlighted the limited data available to the Fed but emphasized that predictions can still be made based on trends [1] - The upcoming CPI data release will occur after the December FOMC meeting, leading to discussions based more on current labor and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - Williams and Bowman's comments are interpreted as a clearer dovish signal from the Fed, increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, following a record high, is attributed to a stronger dollar and profit-taking by investors, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On Tuesday, gold prices fell over 6% to $4,086 per ounce, reversing much of the previous gains after reaching a historic high of $4,381.21 [1][4]. - The surge in gold prices earlier this year, nearly 60%, was driven by strong expectations for interest rate cuts, increased safe-haven demand, and rising gold reserves held by central banks [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market may enter a phase of volatility, with short-term traders locking in profits after rapid price increases [4][5]. Group 2: Other Precious Metals - Other precious metals also experienced declines, with silver dropping over 8%, platinum down 4.3% to $1,569.31 per ounce, and palladium falling 6.6% to $1,397.25 [3][4]. - The decline in silver is particularly noted as it has led to a broader weakness in the precious metals sector, with predictions of potential support levels forming in the near future [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The dollar index rose approximately 0.4%, marking its third consecutive day of strength, which typically diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities like gold [4]. - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, is anticipated to influence Federal Reserve decisions regarding interest rates [4][5]. - Current market sentiment is shifting towards equities and corporate bonds, reducing the short-term demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that gold prices may find short-term support around $4,100 per ounce, and a drop below this level could trigger further technical selling [5]. - Despite the recent volatility, gold remains a key asset for long-term investors seeking to hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - The focus in the coming weeks will likely shift from mere safe-haven sentiment to a reassessment of economic data and policy directions, with the ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 level being a critical indicator of market strength [5].

Core Viewpoint - Milan emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence and opposes political interference in its operations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Milan stresses that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a key foundation for economic stability and will resist any proposals to transfer control to the President [1] - She expresses concern over the politicization of the Federal Reserve's functions, particularly regarding the inclusion of climate issues in monetary policy [1] Group 2: Appointment Arrangements - Milan proposes to take an unpaid leave from the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) during her tenure at the Federal Reserve to avoid conflicts of interest [1] - She has not yet discussed long-term appointment matters with the White House and commits to resigning from the CEA if her nomination is extended [1] Group 3: Economic Analysis - Milan provides a layered judgment on tariffs, stating that the burden will ultimately fall on exporting countries and that tariffs have not led to measurable price increases or inflation [1] - She interprets current inflation trends as being influenced by multiple policies, noting that several initiatives from the Trump administration have significant deflationary properties [1] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy - Milan criticizes the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for showing complacency in the face of declining data quality and highlights the deterioration of key economic indicators [1] - She introduces the concept that any policy can be viewed as a form of "implicit taxation," affecting the economy similarly to tax policies [1] Group 5: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan states that she will not commit to supporting future interest rate cuts and will make decisions based on objective economic analysis and long-term management goals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to rely on data in its next meeting to determine interest rate decisions, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - For the Fed to lower interest rates, it must either be confident that inflation increases will be temporary and mild, or believe that inflation will continue to decline in the coming months and quarters [1] - This assessment assumes that there will not be a significant deterioration in the labor market [1]