Core Viewpoint - Milan emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence and opposes political interference in its operations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Milan stresses that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a key foundation for economic stability and will resist any proposals to transfer control to the President [1] - She expresses concern over the politicization of the Federal Reserve's functions, particularly regarding the inclusion of climate issues in monetary policy [1] Group 2: Appointment Arrangements - Milan proposes to take an unpaid leave from the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) during her tenure at the Federal Reserve to avoid conflicts of interest [1] - She has not yet discussed long-term appointment matters with the White House and commits to resigning from the CEA if her nomination is extended [1] Group 3: Economic Analysis - Milan provides a layered judgment on tariffs, stating that the burden will ultimately fall on exporting countries and that tariffs have not led to measurable price increases or inflation [1] - She interprets current inflation trends as being influenced by multiple policies, noting that several initiatives from the Trump administration have significant deflationary properties [1] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy - Milan criticizes the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for showing complacency in the face of declining data quality and highlights the deterioration of key economic indicators [1] - She introduces the concept that any policy can be viewed as a form of "implicit taxation," affecting the economy similarly to tax policies [1] Group 5: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan states that she will not commit to supporting future interest rate cuts and will make decisions based on objective economic analysis and long-term management goals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to rely on data in its next meeting to determine interest rate decisions, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - For the Fed to lower interest rates, it must either be confident that inflation increases will be temporary and mild, or believe that inflation will continue to decline in the coming months and quarters [1] - This assessment assumes that there will not be a significant deterioration in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with significant attention on potential candidates amid President Trump's criticism of current Chairman Jerome Powell [3][4]. Group 1: Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has started, emphasizing that there are many qualified candidates [4]. - Mnuchin indicated that the decision will be driven by President Trump, who is expected to move at his own pace [4]. - Speculation exists that Powell may completely exit the Federal Reserve system upon leaving his position to avoid any influence on the new Chairman [4]. Group 2: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is emerging as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with Trump considering candidates who align more closely with his views [8][9]. - Hassett has a close relationship with Trump and has served as an economic advisor, which may enhance his candidacy [8]. - Other candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, Treasury Secretary Scott Mnuchin, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, each with their own connections and qualifications [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Context - President Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Powell, advocating for interest rates to be below 1%, which would require a reduction of over 300 basis points from the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50% [7]. - Analysts suggest that such low interest rates could signal a response to a severely troubled economy, raising concerns about the implications for economic health [7].

当地时间7月15日，美国财长贝森特表示，下一任美联储主席的遴选程序已正式启动。这是特朗普政府首次明 确宣布这一进展。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评力度。当地时间7月14日，特朗普再次炮轰鲍威 尔是"榆木脑袋"，并表示，他认为利率应该低于1%。 目前市场正高度关注下一任美联储的潜在人选。据美媒援引知情人士的话报道，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文 ·哈塞特正成为下任美联储主席的主要候选人。 下任美联储主席的遴选程序已启动 下一任美联储主席的争夺战进入白热化。 当地时间7月15日，贝森特在接受彭博电视采访时表示："（下一任美联储主席）遴选程序已经正式启动。美联 储曾犯过重大预测错误，现在可能就是如此。美联储内外有很多优秀的候选人，我们将拭目以待，看看进展如 何。" 贝森特指出，这是美国总统特朗普的决定，一切将按照他的速度推进。贝森特会参与关于美联储主席人选的决 策过程。 对于鲍威尔卸任美联储主席后可能继续留在美联储理事会的猜测，贝森特警告称，这种安排会"令市场感到困 惑"，并指出"美联储主席通常在卸任时会一并辞去理事职位"。 这意味着，一旦换帅落地，不排除鲍威尔将完全退出美联储系统，以避免未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, is set to deliver a speech regarding the economic outlook, inflation trends, and interest rates in Canada [1] Group 1 - The speech will address the economic prospects for Canada [1] - It will cover the trends in inflation that are currently affecting the economy [1] - The discussion will also include insights on interest rate policies and their implications [1]

美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒在近期的一次讲话中表示，由于贸易政策变化迅速，加之美国家庭和企业在今年早些时候的囤货行为，美联储在判断经济潜 力时面临了前所未有的困难。她指出，这种不确定性使得美联储在预测经济增长和通胀趋势时变得更加模糊。 库格勒强调，美国进口关税上调的影响通常表现为物价上升和经济增速放缓，但由于美国仍在与其他国家进行贸易谈判，且多项关税政策仍在悬而未决的状 态，关税上升的具体影响和持续时间难以预测。她认为，尽管美联储面临不确定的全球贸易局势，但较低的关税可能会推动经济增长，导致市场交易员预测 美联储可能减少降息的次数。 库格勒在爱尔兰美国银行的活动中提到："目前很难准确判断美国经济的潜在增长速度。贸易政策的不断变化使得经济预测充 满了变数。"她进一步指出，即便现有关税保持不变，依然可能对美国经济产生重大影响。关税的不确定性已经通过消费者提前采购和市场预期，深刻影响 了经济的表现。 库格勒的发言强调了当前经济环境中的复杂性和挑战。在贸易政策变动、全球经济不确定性和消费者行为的变化共同作用下，美联储面临着前所未有的决策 难题。尽管如此，她对现有货币政策保持谨慎乐观的态度，认为美联储的政策立场可以应对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The timing of changes in inflation trends does not necessarily correlate with the timing of interest rate hikes [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizes that inflation trends can shift independently from interest rate adjustments [1]