同一天稍早前，美联储纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，随着劳动力市场降温，，以将政策立场调整 至更接近中性水平。 威廉姆斯和米兰的讲话被市场解读为美联储内部又一个更明确的鸽派信号，为12月降息预期再添筹码。 更新中...... 特朗普钦点美联储理事米兰周五表示，隔夜公布的9月非农就业报告"明显偏向鸽派"，强化了美国劳动 力市场持续降温的证据。 他强调，当前美联储面临的数据确实有限，"但缺乏数据并不意味着我们没有预测"，政策制定仍可基于 趋势判断。米兰进一步透露政策倾向称，如果他的投票在下一次议息中具有决定性作用，"我会投票支 持降息25个基点"。 米兰指出，11月CPI数据的发布时间将落在12月FOMC会议之后，因此决策者在会议上将无法获得该数 据，这也意味着政策讨论将更多基于目前的劳动力与通胀趋势。 ...

同一天稍早前，美联储纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，随着劳动力市场降温，美联储在近期仍有进 一步降息的空间，以将政策立场调整至更接近中性水平。 威廉姆斯和米兰的讲话被市场解读为美联储内部又一个更明确的鸽派信号，为12月降息预期再添筹码。 更新中...... 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 特朗普钦点美联储理事米兰周五表示，隔夜公布的9月非农就业报告"明显偏向鸽派"，强化了美国劳动 力市场持续降温的证据。 他强调，当前美联储面临的数据确实有限，"但缺乏数据并不意味着我们没有预测"，政策制定仍可基于 趋势判断。米兰进一步透露政策倾向称，如果他的投票在下一次议息中具有决定性作用，"我会投票支 持降息25个基点"。 米兰指出，11月CPI数据的发布时间将落在12月FOMC会议之后，因此决策者在会议上将无法获得该数 据，这也意味着政策讨论将更多基于目前的劳动力与通胀趋势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, following a record high, is attributed to a stronger dollar and profit-taking by investors, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On Tuesday, gold prices fell over 6% to $4,086 per ounce, reversing much of the previous gains after reaching a historic high of $4,381.21 [1][4]. - The surge in gold prices earlier this year, nearly 60%, was driven by strong expectations for interest rate cuts, increased safe-haven demand, and rising gold reserves held by central banks [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market may enter a phase of volatility, with short-term traders locking in profits after rapid price increases [4][5]. Group 2: Other Precious Metals - Other precious metals also experienced declines, with silver dropping over 8%, platinum down 4.3% to $1,569.31 per ounce, and palladium falling 6.6% to $1,397.25 [3][4]. - The decline in silver is particularly noted as it has led to a broader weakness in the precious metals sector, with predictions of potential support levels forming in the near future [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The dollar index rose approximately 0.4%, marking its third consecutive day of strength, which typically diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities like gold [4]. - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, is anticipated to influence Federal Reserve decisions regarding interest rates [4][5]. - Current market sentiment is shifting towards equities and corporate bonds, reducing the short-term demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that gold prices may find short-term support around $4,100 per ounce, and a drop below this level could trigger further technical selling [5]. - Despite the recent volatility, gold remains a key asset for long-term investors seeking to hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - The focus in the coming weeks will likely shift from mere safe-haven sentiment to a reassessment of economic data and policy directions, with the ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 level being a critical indicator of market strength [5].

Core Viewpoint - Milan emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence and opposes political interference in its operations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Milan stresses that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a key foundation for economic stability and will resist any proposals to transfer control to the President [1] - She expresses concern over the politicization of the Federal Reserve's functions, particularly regarding the inclusion of climate issues in monetary policy [1] Group 2: Appointment Arrangements - Milan proposes to take an unpaid leave from the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) during her tenure at the Federal Reserve to avoid conflicts of interest [1] - She has not yet discussed long-term appointment matters with the White House and commits to resigning from the CEA if her nomination is extended [1] Group 3: Economic Analysis - Milan provides a layered judgment on tariffs, stating that the burden will ultimately fall on exporting countries and that tariffs have not led to measurable price increases or inflation [1] - She interprets current inflation trends as being influenced by multiple policies, noting that several initiatives from the Trump administration have significant deflationary properties [1] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy - Milan criticizes the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for showing complacency in the face of declining data quality and highlights the deterioration of key economic indicators [1] - She introduces the concept that any policy can be viewed as a form of "implicit taxation," affecting the economy similarly to tax policies [1] Group 5: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan states that she will not commit to supporting future interest rate cuts and will make decisions based on objective economic analysis and long-term management goals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to rely on data in its next meeting to determine interest rate decisions, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - For the Fed to lower interest rates, it must either be confident that inflation increases will be temporary and mild, or believe that inflation will continue to decline in the coming months and quarters [1] - This assessment assumes that there will not be a significant deterioration in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with significant attention on potential candidates amid President Trump's criticism of current Chairman Jerome Powell [3][4]. Group 1: Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has started, emphasizing that there are many qualified candidates [4]. - Mnuchin indicated that the decision will be driven by President Trump, who is expected to move at his own pace [4]. - Speculation exists that Powell may completely exit the Federal Reserve system upon leaving his position to avoid any influence on the new Chairman [4]. Group 2: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is emerging as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with Trump considering candidates who align more closely with his views [8][9]. - Hassett has a close relationship with Trump and has served as an economic advisor, which may enhance his candidacy [8]. - Other candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, Treasury Secretary Scott Mnuchin, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, each with their own connections and qualifications [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Context - President Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Powell, advocating for interest rates to be below 1%, which would require a reduction of over 300 basis points from the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50% [7]. - Analysts suggest that such low interest rates could signal a response to a severely troubled economy, raising concerns about the implications for economic health [7].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with significant attention on potential candidates amid President Trump's criticism of current Chairman Jerome Powell [2][5][10]. Group 1: Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra announced that the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially started, emphasizing that many excellent candidates are available [5]. - Becerra indicated that the decision will be made at President Trump's pace, and he will participate in the decision-making process [5]. - The market is closely watching the potential candidates, with Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, emerging as a leading candidate [4][14]. Group 2: Criticism of Jerome Powell - President Trump has intensified his criticism of Jerome Powell, labeling him as having a "wooden head" and expressing that interest rates should be below 1% [3][11]. - Currently, the target range for the federal funds rate is 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating that achieving Trump's desired rate would require a reduction of over 300 basis points [11]. - Analysts suggest that a rate as low as 1% could signal severe economic distress, as such low rates are typically crisis measures [12]. Group 3: Candidates and Challenges - Kevin Hassett is seen as a strong candidate due to his close relationship with Trump and his experience in the conservative economic circle [14][15]. - Other candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, Treasury Secretary Scott Becerra, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, each with their own strengths and connections [18][19]. - Hassett's main challenge will be to demonstrate independence while maintaining the credibility of the Federal Reserve amidst Trump's demands for lower interest rates [17][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, is set to deliver a speech regarding the economic outlook, inflation trends, and interest rates in Canada [1] Group 1 - The speech will address the economic prospects for Canada [1] - It will cover the trends in inflation that are currently affecting the economy [1] - The discussion will also include insights on interest rate policies and their implications [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges in assessing economic potential due to rapid changes in trade policy and prior inventory accumulation by U.S. households and businesses [1][3] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations complicates predictions for economic growth and inflation trends [1][5] - Lower tariffs could potentially stimulate economic growth, influencing market expectations regarding the frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] Economic Data Summary - Despite continued growth in the U.S. economy, a sharp increase in imports has led to a contraction in economic output [3] - Advance purchasing by households and businesses to avoid tariff increases has temporarily boosted consumption but may lead to decreased demand in the future, posing risks for economic slowdown [3] - The Federal Reserve may opt to maintain current interest rates until the economic outlook becomes clearer, supporting the recent decision to keep rates unchanged to manage inflation risks [3][5] Challenges and Outlook - The complexity and challenges in the current economic environment are underscored by fluctuating trade policies, global economic uncertainty, and changing consumer behavior [5] - Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism regarding the existing monetary policy's ability to adapt to potential future economic changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The timing of changes in inflation trends does not necessarily correlate with the timing of interest rate hikes [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizes that inflation trends can shift independently from interest rate adjustments [1]